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Wheat/Barley Joint ConferenceTottori, Japan
27 – 28 November, 2004
Shoichi Ito, Ph.D.Tottori University, Japan
http://worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jpNovember 27, 2004
World Wheat at Stake -- Contemporary Global Grain
Supply Demand Competition –
危機に瀕する世界のコムギ
Crisis coming from Weak Demand消費減退から来る危機… ..
Losing the competition among the crops….
競争に負けていく !!!
No population explosion!!
人口爆発は来ない！！
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2075 2100 2125 2150
An
nu
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Incr
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Po
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Fig. 8. Long-term world population growth, 1750 to 2150
Millions Billions BillionsMillion
An
nu
al in
crem
ents
Pop
ula
tion
siz
e
Source: United Nation: Long-range World Population Projections: Based on the 1998 Revision, Executive Summary, (http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/longrange/longrange.htm), The World at Six Billion, (http://www.un.org/esa/population/publications/sixbillion/sixbillion.htm)
?!
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1969
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1987
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1993
1995
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2003
2005
(Million MT)
Rice
Wheat
Corn
Soybean
Source: S. Ito; World Food Statistics and Graphics (http:/ / worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jp), Tottori University, J apan J une 15, 2002. (Original sources arefrom ERS/ USDA; PS&D View , November 2004).Note: Rice is milled basis.
Fig. 16. Evolution of world total production for rice, wheat, corn and soybeans, ’61-‘04
世界におけるコメ、コムギ、コーン及びダイズの消費量の推移（総消費量）
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Rice・コメ Wheat・コムギCorn・コーン Soybean・ダイズ
(Million tons, )百万ﾄﾝ
( ); (http:/ / worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jp/ graph/ index.html), 2004 11 .ソース：伊東研究室ﾎｰﾑ ﾍﾟー ｼﾞ鳥取大学 世界の食料統計 年 月
Evolution of world total consumption of rice, wheat, corn and soybeans
Growth Rates in Population and Grains in the World世界の人口･食料増加率
(UN, USDA, 2001)
Pop. Growth rate/year 人口増加率 /年 （‘ 90-’10）• 1990 1.6%• 1992 1.5%• 1994 1.4%
– 2000 1.3%– 2025 0.8%– 2050 0.3%
Prod’n. growth rate/year
生産増加率 /年 (1996-2000)
コメ Rice1.7%
コムギWt 1.7%
コーン Cn 2.8%
ダイズ Sb 5.5%
Fig.1. Per capita consumption of rice for Japan, Taiwan,South Korea and China during 1961 - 2004
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120
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200
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(Kg)
JapanTaiwanSouth KoreaChina
Source: S.Ito, World Food Statistics & Graphics (http://worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jp)Original data sources: USDA: PS&D View , November 2004; USBC: International Data Base, July 2003.
Milled basis
Fig.2. Per capita consumption of rice for China during 1970 - 2004
80
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105
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115
1970
1972
1974
1976
1978
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1982
1984
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2002
2004
2006
2008
(Kg)
Source: S.Ito, World Food Statistics & Graphics (http://worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jp)Original data sources: USDA: PS&D View , November 2004; USBC: International Data Base, July 2003.
Milled basis
China rate -0.331%
2000’s
アジア諸国及び旧ソビエト地域における一人当たりコムギの消費量
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16019
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450CHINA ・中国J APAN ・日本INDONESIA・ｲ ﾝ ﾄ ﾈ゙ ｼ ｱMALAYSIA ・ﾏ ﾚ ｰ ｼ ｱFORMER SOVIET UNION ・旧ｿ ﾋ ｴ゙ ﾄ
Wheat per capita consumption in Asian countries
(Kg/ capita, Kg/ )人
( ); (http:/ / worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jp/ graph/ index.html), 2004 11 .ソース：伊東研究室ﾎｰﾑ ﾍﾟー ｼﾞ鳥取大学 世界の食料統計 年 月
FORMER SOVIET UNION ・旧(Kg/ capita, Kg/ )ｿﾋ ｴ゙ ﾄ 人
Fig.4 Per capita pork consumption in Japan, S. Korea, China, and Thailand（1961－2004)
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Japan S. KoreaChi na Thai l andTai wan
Source USDA: ： PS&D Onl i ne, September 2004.( ) ( ht tp: / / worl df ood. muses. tot tori - u. ac. j p/ graph/ i ndex. html ) , 2004 10 .伊東研究室ﾎｰﾑﾍﾟｰｼﾞ 鳥取大学 ：世界の食料統計 年 月
(kg/ capita)
Fig. 5 Per capita consumption of broiler in Japan, S. Korea, China, Taiwan and Thailand
（1964－2004)
0
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J apan S.Korea China
Thailand Taiwan
Source USDA: ： PS&D Onl i ne, September 2004.( ) ( ht tp: / / worl df ood. muses. tot tori - u. ac. j p/ graph/ i ndex. html ) , 2004 10 .伊東研究室ﾎｰﾑﾍﾟｰｼﾞ 鳥取大学 ：世界の食料統計 年 月
(kg/ capita)
13
世界におけるコメ、コムギ、コーン及びダイズの一人当たり消費量の変化
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Rice・コメ Wheat・コムギCorn・コーン Soybean・ダイズ
( ); (http:/ / worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jp/ graph/ index.html), 2004 11 .ソース：伊東研究室ﾎｰﾑ ﾍﾟー ｼﾞ鳥取大学 世界の食料統計 年 月
(Kg/ capita, Kg/ )人
Evolution of per capita consumption of rice, wheat, corn and soybeans
Fig. 14. Substitute relationships among crops in production and consumption
Feed
Livestk WheatSoybnSyml
Corn
Rice
Food
Men
SoybnWheat
Rice
Corn
LivestkFruitVege
Prod’n
Prod’rSoybnWheat
Rice
CornOther
P
Q０
S S’
D
q1 q2
p1
p2
A
E
E’
B
B’
Impacts of shift in supply and demand curves
World total rice, corn and wheat for food, 1961-2002
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Million mt
Rice Corn Wheat
Source : http://faostat.fao.org/faostat/
World total rice, corn and wheat for feed, 1961-2002
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Million mt
Rice Corn Wheat
Source : http://faostat.fao.org/faostat/
World total rice, corn and wheat for process, 1961-2002
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Million mt
Rice Corn Wheat
Source : http://faostat.fao.org/faostat/
Competition among major crops:Wheat, Rice, Corn, Soybeans米、小麦、コーン、大豆の
作物間競争
Not only that-------Meat and Dairy
それだけではない！！肉類も競争に加わった！！！
Fig. 14. Substitute relationships among crops in production and consumption
Feed
Livestk WheatSoybnSyml
Corn
Rice
Food
Men
SoybnWheat
Rice
Corn
LivestkFruitVege
Prod’n
Prod’rSoybnWheat
Rice
CornOther
World per capita consumption for wheat, corn and soybean, 1993-2013
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2013
kg/capita
Wheat Corn Soybean Rice
Source : http://www.fapri.org/tools/outlook.aspx
World consumption of grains for food, 1993-2013
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Million mt
Wheat (Food) Corn (Food)Soybean (Food) Rice (Consumption)
Source : http://www.fapri.org/tools/outlook.aspx
World consumption of grains for feed, 1993-2003
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Million mt
Wheat (Feed) Corn (Feed) Soybean (Feed)
Source : http://www.fapri.org/tools/outlook.aspx
Source : http://worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jp
Fig. 20 World rice per capita consumption; 1960-2050
0.0
10.0
20.0
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80.0
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kg/ capita
World (China Rate - 0.331% ) World (China Rate - 3.352) World (China Rate - 1.77%)
China rate - 0.331%
China rate -1.77%
China rate -3.452%
Average rate formula: Xt+n = (1 + r)nQt
Source : http://worldfood.muses.tottori-u.ac.jp
Fig. 21 World rice total consumption; 1960-2050
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1000mt
World (China Rate - 0.331% ) World (China Rate - 3.352) World (China Rate - 1.77%)
China rate - 0.331%
China rate – 1.77%
China rate – 3.452%
Weaker demand for wheat means…
コムギの需要が減退すると・・・
• Over-supply of wheat
• Decline global market prices
• Loss to producers
• End up with smaller wheat production
Fig.&Table 1. Nominal world prices of rice, wheat, corn and soybeans (Annual since 1961)
0
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300
400
500
600
Rice Wheat
Corn Soybeans
$/ t（ ）
1 IMF International Financial Statistics Yearbook, 2003. http:/ / ifs.apdi.net/ imf/ )ｿｰｽ ： ： （Bangkok, 5% broken, milled. No.1, Hard Red, US Gulf. Yellow No.2, Chicago. US(Rotterdam)注１：コメ： コムギ： コーン： ダイズ：
2004 USDA WASDE, October 2004 USDA注２： 年の価格ﾃﾞー ﾀは、 の より算出した。但し、コメは のRice Outlook, October 2004 Thai100%の のﾃﾞー ﾀより算出した。
Fig. 12. Nominal world price of rice, wheat, corn and soybeans
Fig.&Table 2. Real world prices of rice, wheat, corn and soybeans (Annual since 1961)
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2005
Rice WheatCorn Soybeans
$/ t（ ）
1 IMF International Financial Statistics Yearbook, 2003. http:/ / ifs.apdi.net/ imf/ )ｿｰｽ ： ： （Bangkok, 5% broken, milled. No.1, Hard Red, US Gulf. Yellow No.2, Chicago. US(Rotterdam)注１：コメ： コムギ： コーン： ダイズ：
2004 USDA WASDE, October 2004 USDA Rice Outlook, October 2004 Thai100%注２： 年の価格ﾃﾞー ﾀは、 の より算出した。但し、コメは の の のﾃﾞー ﾀより算出した。
Fig. 13. Real world price of rice, wheat, corn and soybeans
What to do for future?
1. Develop new strategies for more food consumption
2. More feed use
3. Processed food using wheat
4. Cut production costs
Thank you!
