Why People Survive Mark P. Bagby Washington University in St. Louis Emergency Management

What does it take to survive a catastrophic event?

Will you survive?

A person can survive 3 weeks without food, 3 days without water and 3 minutes without air, but one will not last 3 seconds without the will and skills to survive.

Survival is not just a product of luck. It’s a matter of mental conditioning, muscle memory and the

ability to act immediately.

The Survival Arc

Denial/Reckoning

Deliberation

Decisive Moment

Denial

Denial is the most insidious fear affecting a person’s response.

World Trade Center History • Common to see firefighters in all seven buildings

• Fire Alarms, bomb threats and small fires were not uncommon

• 1990 blackout, the WTC was thrown into darkness and all 103 elevators stopped functioning, but no one was injured

• 1993 Sub-basement parking area truck bomb, the towers were evacuated, the greatest threat was smoke

Some Chose to Stay

One employee on 9/11 • Employee worked on the 64th Floor of the North

Tower • Heard explosion, felt building shake , but stood frozen

at his desk • “I knew something was wrong.” • Tried to make calls to family and friends to get

information… Fires happen to other people, not me • Afraid of social embarrassment due to overreacting • Decided that it was safer to stay put instead of

evacuating

• When the South Tower collapsed, he and a woman made the decision to evacuate

• At either the 22nd or the 13th floor the North Tower Collapsed (they aren’t sure which) • One ended up on top of the rubble

unconscious for 3 hours • The other was under the rubble and rescued

27 hours later

Joplin Missouri Tornado NWS Finding

The majority of surveyed Joplin residents did not take protective action until receiving and processing credible confirmation of the threat. Instead of acting, they took no action until they were sure the tornado was for real. They denied that it could be happening to them.

A Joplin man denies he is in danger • Heard Sirens at 5:11 pm • Looked at TV and heard NWS Tornado Warning 7

miles north of his location • Went outside to smoke a cigar and look at the sky • Heard Sirens again at 5:39 pm • Back to watching TV, until wife yelled “basement” • Grabs cat and son and runs to the basement stairs • Tornado hits house as he reaches the top stair • He and son injured, but not critically

Deliberation • If you give a person instructions the

chance of survival is greater • If you give a person options, actions

are delayed, survival chance decreases • If a person has to develop their own

plan, the chance of survival hits rock bottom

Life or Death Situations • As people deliberate their actions during

disaster, the most common reaction is to do nothing (“they freeze”).

• Some experts think that this is an involuntary paralysis due to people not having previous experience in emergency situations or being trained realistically.

Seton Hall University Fire 01/19/00 • 3 students died, 58 injured • Frequent false alarms/pranks • Poster and couch set on fire as a prank after

a basketball win • Shawn Simons & Alvaro Llanos story

• Shawn heard the fire alarm, but laid back down “Not another false alarm”…Alvaro was a hard sleeper.

• After a few minutes Shawn got up and made Alvaro get up

• They quickly dressed to go out in the cold

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• They opened the dorm room door and were “pushed” back by intense heat.

• The heat was so intense that it was melting their shoes, the carpet and tiles on the floor.

• They crawled towards the elevator (their normal way in and out) even though an exit stairwell was 2 doors down from their room.

• They made it out but suffered major burns across 16% (Shawn) and 50% (Alvaro) their bodies.

• They fought for their lives for months in the Burn Center and endured countless surgeries.

1999 Central Oklahoma F5 Tornado

• May 3, 1999 • Early evening tornado –

7:00 p.m. • Killed 45 people and caused

$1.2 Billion in damage • Stayed on the ground for 30

miles

Man and wife survive in a bathtub

• Couple had adequate warning and knew they were at risk

• Lived in a home that was brick on a concrete slab, (not the safest place to be)

• Options, leave and go to friends with a basement (10 minutes away) or take cover in bathtub

• Chose bathtub because they needed immediate protection and leaving would expose them to more risk

Air Florida Flight 90

• January 1983 • Snowing and 24F • 78 People died • Poor deicing • Hit 14th St Bridge crossing

the Potomac River • Fell into the Potomac • Everything but the tail

section was submerged • 4 Passengers and 1 crew

member survived

Air Florida Flight 90 • People had no warning • Joe Stiley – had previous Navy training

• “You don’t sit there wondering what to do, you just do it” • In seconds he developed a plan of actions as the plane

sank to the bottom of the Potomac • Saved himself and four others even though he had a

broken leg • The Sixth Passenger

• Made it out, but drowned/succumbed to the elements

Deer Creek Middle School Shooter • David Benke (Math Teacher)

tackled/disarmed the shooter. • “I had thought about what I would do if a

shooter was on campus” • “I saw the shooter and saw that he was

using a bolt action rifle and knew that they are slow to re-load”

Panic Usually requires several conditions: Victim perceives an immediate threat of entrapment Escape routes appear to be rapidly closing Flight seems to be the only way to survive No one gives direction Person hasn’t experienced situation before

Virginia Tech

• April 16, 2007 • Seung-Hui Choi • Killed 32 and wounded 17 • Suffered from severe

depression, mutism and anxiety

• Two handguns, 19 clips and 400 rounds of ammo

Paralysis or Deliberate Decision? • Student saw the gunman enter the classroom • His first idea was to jump out a window • When he saw the gun he froze • He crumpled under his desk on the floor • He was “frozen” and then he played dead • He didn’t know how long it lasted • He was the only one in the room that wasn’t

shot

Beverly Hills…in Kentucky

• 1977 • 165 people died • Southgate, KY south of

Cincinnati • Nightclub-awaiting a

performance by John Davidson and a major wedding reception

Walter Bailey • No one noticed the smoldering fire for 25-30

minutes • Walter Bailey, 18 y/o busboy • He entered the bar and shouted at the patrons,

“There’s a fire” • He led groups out of the bar into the garden • He returned to the show room and took the

microphone and like a flight attendant told people where to evacuate

• No training on emergency procedures, he just did it

Hajj

• Muslim Pilgrimage to Mecca • Occurs annually during a 4

day period • In 2010 ~3M participated in

this pilgrimage • 1990 1,426 pilgrims died in

a stampede • 1998 118 pilgrims were

trampled to death • 2006 another 346

Panic Causes the Emergency • Intense crowd during the Hajj • Natural bottlenecks of the path causes

people to be compressed • People who drop something trying to

recover it adds to the bottleneck • People panic knowing that escape is the only

chance of survival • Crowd Crush vs Psychology • The square yard theory (FEMA tornado 5 sq

ft)

Evacuation Theory • Theory - People will evacuate like water running

down hill, where ever there is a void, people will fill the void to escape.

• Consider - Water molecules don’t make decisions, do not experience fear or pain, they don’t stumble and fall, they don’t need to rest and they are not part of an emotional group.

• Decisions are one of the reasons that people live or die in a disaster, but once committed to a path, it is difficult for them to change course.

Newtown, CT (Sandy Hook Shootings) • Kaitlin Roig hid her students in the

bathroom and locked/blocked the door. • When police came and knocked on the

door she refused to unlock it. • Asked to see their badges • Told them “If you’re the cops, then go get a

key”

Who does Survive • Men survive more often than women • Men have better spatial reasoning skills

(engineering, architecture, sports) • Military training and emergency service training

improve the chance of survival • Those that prepare and practice for emergencies

have a higher survival rate • Those that have experienced a life-threatening

emergency before have a higher survival rate

How to Increase Your Chance of Survival • Spatial Reasoning can improve with practice

and repetition (even video games) • Learn/prepare what to do in a disaster • Fantasize about what you would do in an

emergency

What to Learn and Practice • CPR • Stop, Drop and Roll • Fire Drills • Citizen Corps • Ready.gov • Instructions on airplanes, auditoriums and

sporting venues

Takeaway • People respond as constructively as

possible to disasters, and they could respond even better if given the proper training and instruction.

• We need to provide the proper training and instruction and when possible, require it!

References • Amanda Ripley, The Unthinkable, 2008 • NWS, Central Region Service Assessment Joplin, Missouri

Tornado, 2011 • Ron Elliott, Inside the Beverly Hills Supper Club Fire, 1996 • Deep Survival: Who Lives, Who Dies and Why, Laurence

Gonzales, 2004 • 9/11 Commission Report • Special thanks to Dennis K. Sullivan, University of Louisville