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8/2/2019 Williamson - Regmenes cambiarios
1/27
W P 0 8 - 3 F E B R U A R Y 2 0 0 8
1750 Massachusetts Avenue, NW Washington, DC 20036-1903
Tel: (202) 328-9000 Fax: (202) 659-3225 www.petersoninstitute.org
Working Paper S e r i e s
Copyright 2008 by the Peterson Institute or International Economics. All rights reserved. No part othis working paper may be reproduced or utilized in any orm or by any means, electronic or mechanical, including
photocopying, recording, or by inormation storage or retrieval system, without permission rom the Institute.
Exchange Rate Economics
John Williamson
Abstract
T pp uz h u h hw g xhg dd, dvdg h ubj wh d h d d wh d h d . T dqu h d xd, d v bhv d, whh gz h h g xhgk ppud b bh ud d h pd. I gud h h p
uddg h g xhg k dvp g p pp h dg Duh d. Ep h h dp pg dvp pb hv d udvud . T pp ud b xg p xhg g.
JEL Cd: F31; F43; O24Kwd: Exhg ; bhv d; Duh d
John Williamson , w h P Iu, h b d wh h Iu 1981. Hw pj d h UN Hgh-Lv P Fg Dvp (h Zd Rp) 2001; v h Suh A h Wd Bk dug 199699; p PUvdd C d R d J (197881), Uv Wwk (197077), Mhu Iu hg (1967, 1980), Uv Yk (196368), d P Uv (196263); dv h
I M Fud (197274); d u h UK u (196870). H uh,uh, d, d uu ud d dvp u, udgReerence Rates and the International Monetary System (2007), Curbing the Boom-Bust Cycle: Stabilizing Capital Flowsto Emerging Markets(2005), Dollar Adjustment: How Far? Against What?(2004), dAter the Washington Consensus:Restarting Growth and Reorm in Latin America (2003).
Authors Note:A d h pp w ppd h Gwh C pd b h WdBk wh h W d F Hw Fud d h gv h Nhd,Swd, d Ud Kgd. T uh dbd pp g h Nw Yk Ap 2007, Rb Zgh, Hk H, Ed Bh, d h pp h Iud Eud d P E R d J, pu du Lu Sv, uu pvu d.
8/2/2019 Williamson - Regmenes cambiarios
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F dvp dd d h p xhg
dvp p. T k h vw h dvpg u w, d w k
, pp xp p pdu, wh dd p . T w dd
p ud b dud b duz (p ubu), bu h g dd d p gd w p . Adg dvu w uk b dvgu
(h Mh-L d w uk b d), h w p dpg xb
xhg p.1 Dvp p dd u h ,
vb k h xhg .
T w v udg h hg h d h d h Gwh
C k pp xhg . O u g h pdx
pd u h pvu pgph: I h p pd h w vd, h wud
(ud wk up) p h u hd u pb. N bv
h uh u d vb. Sd, B B hd g gud h h
udg h u h E A u hd b h p ug h h w
hd bu pv xhg . T du v h ud 1997 wh
h xhg b upv hv ddd h gu. Td, w
wd gzd h h udg h L A db h 1980 w h
hgh upv xhg h v h hd wd h pdg .
T vvud xhg w h h hd dud g u u d
dvp, d h w h h w hd b v h .
T xhg w gzd b dv k bw h u d h . Gv h v d xb p, h
xhg k dg h xhg h h d du . R xhg
u k dg b d h v gg d. Bu
h k, uh p h b dvd zg bh wh u d
xhg d hw gv h d wh xzg gwh hud
pph h u xhg d. T p pp p p (bu
p bjv ) uz h p hugh.
Gv p, v ppd h b dvpg u,
upg h uh w vhd h h xhg g h
du h dgd h pw d. I h v h h h
g h h djub pg, whh h xhg w () xd bu
1. T , ug u, h gv dvpg u hud k dvg gd ud vu, whh wud pv bh h b p d h d. T w d gzdd v ud p d.
8/2/2019 Williamson - Regmenes cambiarios
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ud b hgd jup wh u ud ud dqubu, g
u whh ud xhg pg wud hv b phbv .
T dvg uh g h u xd xhg p pup wh
ug h xhg u dju wh dd. Bu h bpgv b p b ud d w bdd v wdpd g
( g h du u) 1973. A ub dvpg u xpd wh
v d g, bu h h b d h w
h du u dpg g . Idd, h w h
u ugh dp u (h g h w xd b
u dv k u bd) d hw d u. T u hg
xhg g h k up bw.
ExchangE RatE Economics today
Exhg p dvd uddg wh d h v, h
hg, g xhg . I w k gd h h xhg p h
dd v h u h udg k vu (b h dd
df u) wg hd, wh h xhg w vwd dd
v h wud qu h w dd d upp g xhg.2 I w d h
g xhg dpd up wh xpd hpp h uu h h xuv
wh w hppg h hppd h p. T xhg wd-kg p. I v h p h bhv h u u h b p, bu
h u u u h xhg wd-kg g z h w
u uu k. (O u, u u u dpd vg d v
hdu: Bh w d xhg dd uu g qubu
g. T v wd-kg g ud kw h u.)
Wh xhg xp h d h v g xhg
, hd gh up h pb d b gv h wh d h vu
u xhg . I u h h 1:1 hp bw h pu h
b gv pg x u xhg d h dp bw h
2. D h bugg u d w (, xp, Ev d L 2004) k w ? Y, bu d g u xpg h d xhg . T u h w d h k d xp xhg hg h b v h w d. I pub u, dd u ug u, h xhg hg w d w, bu h d xgu h whd h wg p d h h d xhg . T wh zd h ddu.
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k xhg d h h wud b bhd pv k, k pu
b gd gv ud kg db hd h uhgd.
Cv, gv h g hd xd xhg bu upd b h k
bg pb dg puv pu dd h h wud b gd g k. Nvh, gv g g xhg d udd
h wh whh d d, d xhg u h .
I uu hk w g wh dg h v g xhg . A
g vv d h d- v h (p-dd) xhg . Dug
h g, h u u x u b pg dw h g-u vu h
xhg . T w v wh d h g-u qubu vu: h pd
dw uqu b h puhg pw p (PPP) d, d h h qubu xhg
dpd vb k h k g d pduv. A d g vv
dju h xhg wd d- v. T dd d bu h h
pv g xp wh w hpp bw w d h g u. I pg
h g wgh xp, bd p gh, pv g, dd
xhg p p-Lu .
T uh g h wh bv h h wd w pd b h dg
h d, bu h k h pp xpud h v d d h b.
A ubqu h xp wh u bv b wg wh h d d wh
v pph pp pg. I gud h h bhv pph xpudd
pu b Pu D Guw dv . T x h pp x h u gwh d h xhg , whh h d ud Duh d d whh
dgu. I wd b h k h p p, pu h qu
g xhg g. T ubv k uz qu h
dd h.
thE standaRd modEl
I uggd bv h h dd pph dg h xhg b ubdvdd
xpg h g-u qubu d xpg h-u p qubu.
L u b dg h xp g-u qubu.
Lg-u qubu vd hzd b u u b
h uh kp h db (u v p, NIIP, whh
ud whp qu p w db) GDP . T bzd
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w-xzg v. F u wh ubjv du qu h wd
, h v wud b z. F u wh du hgh h h wd (..,
p h h h wd), h v wud b gv (h u wud b
db). F u wh du w h h wd , h v wud b pv(h u wud b d). T g h dp bw u du d
h wd , h g bu vu h d- NIIP/GDP. (A h u
h p h h u u, whh uzd Obd d
Rgf 1995.)
T g u d- NIIP/GDP, h g w b d- u u
b ( p GDP). Hwv, ug h h xd h gwh
d ,3 h hgh u u b h ud b hgh
p. T d b u v h d: .g., db u u h
u g d surplus d- qubu db v hgh d h u
u d bgg, d v h hgh v db.
Ah p h d- qubu h dpd
h v p. T v v PPP pv bw p g-u qubu
d h.4 T vw h v PPP hd bw p g-u qubu p
p h h h hk h dguh bw qubu p xuv ,
h hk h d d p. Ep vd ugg h
hg v PPP hd bw p g-u qubu u
v dvp (Rgf 1996). Bu h h wh hv d g-uqubu xhg hv udd g g vb
(.g., B-Qu . 2004) p h h hv g u h qubu
p.
O h bg dd wh h qu d qubu
d h hkg qubu hg h w hd h v
3. T d p vu b d wh h uqu h pp d d bw. I pb h pu p b w, bu h d b uppd h g xd h gwh . T pph dd h gwh up upd b h
g u (R 1928). A v dd pbb dh d d k pu bw (Mdh 2007).
4. I p d d pd gd w z d h p up w h vwh, PPP wud b qu p bg. Cv, h x p (whh p h dd gd) d df up p h bu PPP (qu h pv df u, upg b h xhg ) v hph, whh hd h puhgpw u vd b h pvg xhg h vwh. Ep, h hph h d w. Rv PPP (qu , vg v p uhgd) h d uh b, qubu d (Rgf 1996).
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g u, h p dvp p. M hv pd d
qubu u whh NIIP/GDP hgg hugh vhg d .
T p h h qu hw xp NIIP/GDP v dvp pd.
A d w w gv b h h h db (, xp, Kdbg 1958, 417).A u w pd h ud wd wud k d hg d hv w p k
p p, wud xp bw. I qubu p p wud vv u
u d d wd u, u whh wud gdu bud up
db v p (Sg I h db ). I du u h wd wud , bu h
wud b u u d db v p xdd h d upu d h
NIIP/GDP wud g bg gv (Sg II). A p u ud h g-u
qubu ( d ) h d, wh h NIIP/GDP hg d g gw
uh: T u u d pp GDP wud qu h db-
h gwh . I , p u wud udg uh g h db . I h
wud v u u upu h d upu xd db v, d
h NIIP/GDP wud d (Sg III). Evu NIIP, d h db-v p,
wud b pv (Sg IV). T d u d kd b NIIP/GDP
bzg pv vu, wh gv d b h f b p db v
(Sg V). (A xh g h db , wh gv u u h wud u d bk
Sg I, xpb h p h duh h p
h pduv pw hg.)
Hwv, h buk hzg h ud h h u, xpg h g-u qubu,5 h h h h h g-u qubu. T
u d h h whh u p p b, whh p h h
k u xp quz h u hdg df u, .., h h
df u b qu h xpd hg u h h.
T d uu d uvd p.6 Av, ud
xp d p p b h wd xhg u b qu h xpd uu
p xhg , h wd du pu u b qu h df. (I d-
qubu, u, xpd u b qu u.) Tu
df w u h xpd ph dju qubu. (T
5. A gd u dd xhg Id (1995).
6. I d p h p d, hugh h ug u h k u wh vd p, whh w u w-ug . Cvd p h pp h h df qu h wd pu du. Fu vd p wud w k p b d b bgg bw w u. I , ggg bg h vd vv kg puvk d d p xp b .
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df dvg xhg v w dvpd b Jh Md K h
wg h F Wd W, h d pd wdpd g xhg . T
pSd Wd W wk g xhg , p h dp gzd g,
vvd dvp h Mud-Fg d b Fg [1962] d Mud [1964].)T bg v p uddg h dvg h h-u bhv
g xhg , k h h dp gzd g 1973, w d b
Rudg Dbuh (1976) h vhg d. H w g h wh phzd h h
xhg hd b vwd p, wh vu wud b dd h k
v h wud du hd wg hd h udg k u. A uxpd
h k gv u wud du h w u
d , bu d pud v hd h d k u,
wud b h xpd d u b qu h uhgd wd .
T d wud b pb h u w h uu xpd appreciateu
qubu w d. Suh pp w u pb h u udw
u dp bd h whh wud hv bhd h /
(whh u b bhd h qubu). T w h u vhg.
A p v bdg h up p p b (Ku
1976). T v pph w dvpd uu h hph h df u
p ubu. Supp g h h udd uxpd h upp
pu u. O g, kw h h w qubu w vv dp
pp h h upp. Bu h h u h d upp hd u, v h u k. I h p w u
qubu, h d wd v wud hv d d w
g h p b wh qubu. S h wud b dp
h d u, whh gh gh vv vhg, bu whh h v wud
u u upu h wud bud g wd h qubu v.
Equbu wud b d wh h vu d hd b dd b
pvu v d h vu g hd b bu b u u upu.
Php h u u dp xhg d w h pvdd b
Rhd M d Kh Rgf (1983) h u d h p v
h h u h xg d. T qu-dud p h d h
xd ubud h p:
=
+ 1(-*) +
2(-*) +
3(
-
*) +
4(-*) +
5B +
6B* + u
8/2/2019 Williamson - Regmenes cambiarios
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wh
= gh d p g u
-* = g US upp g upp
-* = g US g
-
* = h- df
-* = xpd g-u df
B = uuv US d b
B* = uuv g d b
u = dub .
A h d h d, whh xp h b xhg bw h Ud
S d g h u whh p u v h h wd, p 1
= 1, ..,
-dg hg v upp. T d Jb Fk (1976) d
Jh B (1978), whh u PPP h h u, w pd pg 4
= 5
= 6
= 0. T
Dbuh (1976) vhg d d Fk pp h d h duh k
(Fk 1979) w pd pg p p b d h 5
= 6
= 0, bu
wg hg h xhg p w gzd k. N h
h qu w d b z h d Hp d M (1982). I p
d xhg hphzd b h p d ju dud, h wud xp
5
d 6
b g df z.
T g h M/Rgf pp h d wk upd h xhg d dd h hz (up ). T x xv h
p u. Hwv, h d h pp h xhg d h
w b u p z. T h w d d dud pu h
d h ud h-u PPP ( Fk 1976). Ep vd hd d
vwhg jd h d wh uu PPP h-u d xhg
bhv, h h M/Rgf pp w hwg h h-u u h h
w d.
S h u j h uv w dvdg h u g-u qubu
d h-u pph qubu. I d dp h pu vw h xhg
b udd b hugh uu d p dw h xhg b pg
v d7 h u u v-g dv PPP (whh d w
7. A v d qu vg h g u, u u Pz g bg h h pu. (I u h p w w p b h u h g, h u Pz g w d v hz, hugh kw h u vu bw up. A v d xud u h d b.)
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dug h u u). F xp, pp (B . 2007) dbg w-
v d (NGEM h N Iu E d S
Rh Ld) :
I uu pu h g h g xhg k k wd, d xpbu d h v h f h vu h u. T bgqu h b xhg
b w
=
+1(1 +
)/(1 + h
)(1 + p
)
wh h
h h,
h h p u, d p
kpu. [I p bg ud h h h h u k h h p
u.] Exhg hg bu h hg.
I h d ju pd, h Dbuh d u p p b d
h p p = 0, wh p d p z vu h k pu. Pd hphz h h k pu dbd .
PRoblEms with thE standaRd modEl
T v d uzd bv hv v p p. I h p, h
bd h up h xhg pd hg h ud.
Cv, h pd h h xhg w hg h w v
hg. Ju wh vb b dd ud dpd up h pu d, buh M/Rgf ud wud ugg h upp d v wud qu ud
d, d h , xpd , d d b wud qu ud
d. Rx h up p gh wud d wh dd
h d d pduv, u vu h vb hg pp
h p vu. O h h hd, h ggd vu xhg hg ugh b
pb g uu xhg hg.
A d p h dd d h b d b hvg gd
wh h ud p , d pdg uu xhg h b. I ,
h uwhh u xpg p d h xhg wud
. T u, d , u h pp w b M Fd (1953). T
v d d h pb bubb-d-h d, whh h xhg
d uh d uh ud vu b k d, u p u
v pd h v qubu.
8/2/2019 Williamson - Regmenes cambiarios
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0
A h p h vd h g u p vd. T w
u hgd b h M/Rgf ud, hugh h h ud wh
u. M h dg p h vwhg u ud
h d, hugh Guh d R (2005) hw h ddg h xhg dud hg wh h u u u p dg h-u b h xhg .
D Guw d Gd (2006, 4) h h xhg bw h d
d h duh k/u v 19932003 wh h v h h gh hv
b xpd h b hg h bvu ud. (N h v d gu
bw h g xhg wg h hk d h d hg
xhg g h du u h w dd dju h hk.
Bu h u h d h g w dpb dju h hk.)
M h v d g xhg u h d xuv,
hugh d h, bu h g h u pd. M
h d bu hv udd h h d b h h h k
p. T wud b pb xhg w pdd b h p
dd d.
Exhg hv qu b vvd hg h k k bubb-d-h
d: h w pp h d 198085 d p 198587; h p
h d dg up pk 200102; h pud pp wg h
Mg Th pw d pd p A W w ppd h dv
d hd uh h C;8
h pk Mh 1995; d .T u pb: T v xhg d p u. I ,
hwv, p bv h h dpd b p u, bu b h
vb up h. D Guw d Gd f h h dd p h
v d, whh h bhv h. I d gudd h bhv
u h pd, bu h h uu h xpd b v
h uh, g Fk d F (1986).9 T , h g xhg k ppud
b g wh u w p u g xhg : ud d h. T
ud u ud b pp k u wh bv h, b p , xhg
w d v h g-u qubu v. T (w) xhg h b
8. A W pud hv d bvu : h h pud w vvud. Bu hg h d b wh g pu d Mg Th w ugh pud h k dg hvvu.
9. I Sh d Su (1990) h pd b d, wh du pd w pd, bu hd dpd h wh bgu, wh ud hugh h d hp bu h vv ug k.
8/2/2019 Williamson - Regmenes cambiarios
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xp, k (REEM) d.10 Ch pp wh xp
xhg hg h g- uu. T d hg
xhg . A pu h g xhg k d bhv h
ud h, bu h h v h pp ud xhg h d h h v bhv h b pb. T h bw h w
u bu v h h u h p , bu bu h
budd , .., ub udd h wd u px bu d d
p bu phb u hub. T h h h dd
u h vg h bd.
T d D Guw d Gd bd hgu d. S u b
gd b pg hgu pv d (Bh d v Wp
2006). T g g d bw hg h ud d hg
h bvd k p. I uh d hgh-d xp (K u bu )
.
Ev whu dug h p hgu , D Guw d
Gd ub v h d . Id h u h d v hud
d bh pp. T dg :
1. Exhg hg uu dd hg h ud, hugh h
xhg isgd wh ud vu.
2. I k u , h h u d b pb h ud u. (I b wh bw h u.)
3. Exhg hg hv (g h w-pbb v hpp uh
qu h h wud u w dbud dg dbu.)11
4. T xhg , bu updb, dd ud vu d
d vvd bubb-d-h d.
I h wd, h d wh h bu xhg k, udg
h h hud u u b h wh dh h p d.
10. Ad w gh, u g u, bu h u u p h w w k .
11. T 2007 h ud uh d hdg ud g h wud hv d h b vb.
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dEvEloPmEnt stRatEgy and dutch disEasE
Duh d bd bv wh hppd h Nhd wg h
dv d g- xp u g h 1970. T xp u g vd h hhb Hd, whh d h p d xp gd h h u g.
T h h dud h xp w pp h xhg . T h
h uug xp ud b pp du bud xp g
w hu b kw Duh d.
E hv v dbd whh Duh d hud b dd dgu
d b vdd b p u whv pb, k gd u h hud b
jd h h d. T vw g bd h pb xp-d gwh hvg
d b dvp E A. O h d h u h g
h w b dbd h pv xhg . Bg xp w
h ud pp wud up h p d ( w gud) wud hu
upp h p dvp.12 A u h dvp uu h du u h
gvg gd vg dd wh ppu h u hp u h
b w xp.13 Mg pv xhg h p bg w
-xpg hu gdd pud v. M L A u
d kp h xhg pv wh p w b vb h 1990,
u whh h p h ud d bz w pd b
dvp xp du. A hwd pv xhg .T vw h dvp b pd b kpg h xhg udvud w
u. O, dd , whh d hw h b phd. T h h h
hugh whh hgh pv xhg wk f.14 A v d h p h
b uug du, bu h u h h w bhd. M
d uh hv uggd h pu vu xp du, bu h bd
g-b-dg, hv p h wd k, d xhb h
hg d. Hwv, p d uh b xp du
hv b pg. I h b gud h udvu d vg, hugh
h vw wud b h h u u d dud b vvud pvd
12. Duh d b ud b xv p w, uh d.
13. N h h pp u, h xp bg h wh ppu v h vu h u u. F xp, ugg h h z Kuw d Abu Dhb w b b v vb uu h d h h w vg g p h pd.
14. T u dud B Ehg (2007) pp w h Gwh C.
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g vg hgh v. A w pp D Rdk (2007) gu h h b
vdg Duh d p , bu g h v p db
db d h w h pg u du g h
db gg x. Ah vw (whh I d h) hd h h ppb g xp-d gwh : vd gwh
bg -dg bu h h p . T vw ugg h Duh d
pb dud b b h u u b uub bu h g
p uh udvud wud b p v w b. M h wh
w bu Duh d wud h v h h udd, h p
qu .
Hwv, v vw pv g .15 T vw h
h vu w xp ju k h : I g h ppu
vb d d d hud h b wd k h pv h
d ( dd pv pduv). Nu uxpd pv w
g d d h pd p dvp, d xp h wh
h hk vv d xp g h w uu vv u h z h
h xp . A pp h u d w du uh du h z
h xp du, whh vb qu h wd u h
dd d hgh up d vg dd. Ad h dd
p vw wud b h h gh w bg bu uh pp v
pp, whh g xhg wud w u. M wud xph h u g xhg wud dd pp.
E, h h ju d, vd u h qu bgg
b vb. T ud k whh h w vd h vvu
dg gwh w h Rz d C (1999). Dg h qubu xhg 16
h whh wud b p w p xb, h udd h h w dd
p vd gv hp bw g d gwh. Pd, Rj, d
Sub (2006) udd h h p vd h vvu h gwh
dvpg , hugh h d vd h h u dvpd u.
15. A gd xp h dd vw pvdd b Cd (2002).
16. T w d h xhg h u ( dd h v L A vu Ag-Sx u whh w xp xhg ). O d, g h du ud ud IMF pub, h v p w upu, q
A/p
A q
B/p
B. T v d, whh
h p pdug u d wd ud pu L A, h v p db h p db, p
/p
N. Ep h w v u gh h h h bw
h bg u h h u, hugh df d h pduv db vu db du d p dvg h g .
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Rdk (2007) d Bh (2007) g h h vd hw h gwh dpd vdg
vvud xhg , bu h gu h udvu hpu gwh. T u
ud h u h Agu d Cd (2006). Dg h qubu xhg
-u g wh g , pduv, d, d gvpdg dpd vb, h ud g dd -u gwh
g. T ud dp h uu u wh p d vg, h upu
gp, du, dph k, d, , d u . Ug v
df u g, h ud h h gv d g hp
bw gwh d g h u h . Hwv, h u dv
p b g g: Idd, h v b p ( xzg gwh) pp
b smalludvu.
O pu g p u Agu d Cd (2006, 2021) h gv
hg h xhg hv df f gwh dpdg whh
qubu ph. I h xhg w pp b 10 p u
b (p) d, h u p h h gwh wud b xpd .
Bu h pp ud bu h gv d h xhg h
dg p pvd h wh h bu dd
bup h, h h u ppd v h h u h dg p,
h h xhg wud b gd d gwh wud b xpd d. Wh
ud z h df p? Pub df judg b h pv h
p h hg. I h qubu xhg ppd, pu ud xp db d h u h dud pb pdug
db gd. Wh h pb vg h xpb gh d ju
wud hpp wh pp h pd g, h wud b f b h d
pb vg h db . Mv, h wud b h
p . I , wh pp u g, h ug p hg
k b vd d h uk du uh d v db. Bu
bu pu b d wh h p hg w b vd, h wh
v uh xp h, bu pj wud b h qubu
xhg . O p h h dg h h p bg puud w d . (N h
h df wh h xp h u xp-d gwh h
w d bv.)
Supp k h vd bvg h Duh d dd pb dug
gwh. Wh p d bu ?
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T v vw h p pb dg . M xhg w ,
whh h h p wp. I v h h uh d g d
u h xhg u h g h xhg , bu p
v d v d f hg h xhg .Hw vg h dd vw? Cd h g xhg . I
u h h xhg pvu p u? Supp h h xhg h b
b g u p pv h d p w. T
dd h gv p v hv uh f: I gu h v
wk b pdg uu hg p (h gg h), b hgg h
v upp df (h p h), d h bh h h h
wk. I , h bhv h gu h v p h
wd ug ud dg g d h w h wgh ud
h k. Tk p p u vdg h g g
h ud b h jupg bdwg.
I ghg h xhg ud b p hg, h w pp
h g-u qubu xhg . T Agu-Cd u h h d d u
. Duh d wh h ghg h xhg p.
Uu h v g ub whh h uh
qu u whh ghg h xhg b gdd
p p. T du qu wh d uh . I h uh uh
hk p d u u b p, h w w g d pub dd db dju h . I h p d ubqu vd,
h h w b du h gwh . I wud b db hv h p
u h ud b dpd d h puh v wh vdg
pp h xhg h d b vd du u.
T vg ju p bd h b h h pvd
uh u. T w qu h pup h encajeud Ch h 1990. T encaje
w qu h 30 p h vu qu p w hud b dpd
bg u h C Bk pv h u h bugh
wh h w. (A v w g h bg w p x wh p vu
h h w.) T h b xv u, Ch, dug whh h
encajew fv dug h p w g h dpd h Ch
uh ( wd, hugh uv, dd h w fv ghg h u
Ch g db). Muh h u d h encaje fv. I vw h uf
8/2/2019 Williamson - Regmenes cambiarios
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h ud pb g gz h gv encaje b ud b h uh
h h d , du h p w, b h
w, bu h h x h u pup uvb h h. O h uh
hd w h u h d d uh h w hud xp gqu wh h encaje dpd vb hw g p w
qu. T b g pb wh h uh hvg
ud h d d df w df w h hvg d
d (whh w h p h ).
M u hv pd h p , h F
Wd W. A h B Wd w k gd h h u
u wud b whh p wud b pd. A h dubd h
p w fv, bu uh dub dd . Hwv, pp b Rhd
Cp (1999) bd g vd h h p ud b dvpd u hd
d fv u h w bhd p h d gdu h 1960 d pd
up Mg Th pw B 1979, d w pd wh h
Eup U vd h d g u 1990. Nwd dvpd u
h p , h pu du h.
N uh b d dvpg u. I g h w pd wh
w ghd, h dd w dpd, h 1960 d 1970 h
L A. Bu ubqu v hv wd v df u df u. A
w (k Hg Kg) vd h w p u bz d hv d h. Su (k Ag) hv -d bw b d D . Oh (k
Ch, Cb, M, d Td) hv pd p pu . Sv
u (k Ch d Id, d php Bz) hv d , hugh wh
d wd bz. Oh bzd ( h 1990, wh h w
ph h vd bz) d h ghd pd
ubqu, v wh p hgd h A .
I L A, h w db bz h db hd b v.
Ag h j u, Ag, Mx, Pu, d Vzu bzd h h h
1990. I , Ch d Cb bh d w b pg encaje, ud
Ch bv. T h b db bu Cb, bu w judg h bh h
h w b fv. Bz d w, bu f hv g
b judgd u. T uu p b h h gu w xv px
d hgd qu p vw h ph h Bz
k.
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M A u hv hd p g h pp hv b fv. Ev
h Sgp, whh ud hgh b, h M Auh Sgp
hd h gh phb g bwg Sgp d d pu h h
A 1997. (I bdd h b h p h b d gwh h Ud S 2003.) Ch d Id hv udk v gdu bz,
d hv dv vg p p d p (hugh bh w
updd vg g v udk g). Id bzd (1973),
uh h xp gdd pud, bu pb h A
1997. M d Td bh hv g h, hvg bzd bu h pd
d d p w (d, h M, uw). K
ud g pu bz p h p g h Ogz
E Cp d Dvp (OECD) h d-1990, d d h k
pdg b bzg h- bu g- p w. I p h b
h A xp h 1990 h bud h A p u
bz: I h h pd bw h A u h ufd
d h h wd ud p w ( ud h- w) h
pdg pd.
Wh h u gh b pb g uwd pp h
xhg gd ? O d dguh bw pp ud b u
u p d p w h b p. Ab g u u p
ppp hd ud h u. I h pup h h w b vd v hbu , bz udgd w v, hugh h
d b qud v d hv bw b h ppp du. Hwv,
h uk Nw d Kuwh wh vd pdg h
u u p v h . T u uh vv vg wh
ud, g b hd ud h u. S uuh h Nwg u whh h h
u g pd h gd b h dw dd d
h v h b p, pub b bg pd h gv. T hd
g- ud h u, d pvdd h k d xp h b dd
b h gv h w hv p h v h xhg . T , hwv, b
pu du vdg Duh d d p, h uk u
vg p bg k up h pd vg wh ud. Php h b u
dg pu pg h u h d pd bu pd gd, h
g vd d dg Duh d (whh bud hpp p h
d ud d ).
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Supp x h h pb ud b p w h pv p. T
v uu u h hv h f dugg p w, k qug bk
hd hd u p d qug hgh v g g u h bk
xd h dd . Hwv, h u h hud b pd pv h h , d u h p-pg u d uf h u
h pb. O hd w u vg uh gu d u h
p w bzg w v h u h bu . T v h encaje
ug p w bzg w .
Ch pd pb h 1990: I pd x vd h z p w
v h encaje. T x ud hv pd h encajeh h bg fd
v. Ah pb p df x ( uhg) d
b d. T pp h h pd: Swzd pd df x
h dg d h B Wd d dug uwd p w. I pvd
fv, whh hd upg, pu p p hg fd g
wd h ud b f b h w p. Supg php
p d b dv pu du17h h b du
h pp . I ud b fv h p v gd
g h w ud h djub pg.
Policy imPlications
Wh h p pgdg bh h h xhg g d hw
p g p h xhg dd b h bhv d
D Guw d Gd h h b h p dd h?
I d p gdg h d dp () xd xhg . I
u h xd b xhg gd d ud h p
d. I hg h h h I fd g (W 1991,
39596):
1. T d p, h h d bg bbd gu dg h d u pu u .2. T buk d udk wh h dg p() wh u p pg.3. T u wh puu p h w u
wh h h u wh u p pg.
17. S d d h b dbd g wh h b . I wud b hpb p h x uhg.
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4. T u ppd dp u g h w u ud db h xd . T b b bhd b p bkwh u bd.
T p whh dp p v g. T dd dugg h h gd d: T w b b ud vu (
h wud b w gd b h gv), d w h uh h
uh d bu . T bhv d hg bh p h pp. I ud
h puv u u gh g d h v p
dd g.
N, hwv, h h p d wh u ud pp p h
wud b uw dp g h gu g h k, k h
b bu djub xhg . T hg h h ugg h h wud u
h gu g xhg h w wd ud h B Wd , 199293
wh h w-bd Eup M S (EMS), uu dvpg u h
hv ud g h xhg ud h djub pg. I gd gg h h
h ud b vdd b v hg h xhg pd wh d
d h hg dd. T gh hp h w ud, bu h k wud
h g wg hg h xhg quk, d wud b g
pu . I p f vd xhg hg h pv -dvd h
hv vd p d h h xhg gg b hgd, d bd
uh f w u xhg hg h b wh h b hdgh hv bu. T b w hp d h z d du h ug g.
T h bw gd d ugd g, d vu d
g, whh v h BBC18 g whh h B h C b. 19 A
ud d whh pubh xhg () h w h uu h w
b d. T pp gu v ug uh hd g h db g
wud u gg h hp h pu g xb,20 hugh wud hv h
f g h d gv. Vw df hp whh h b
. Hwv, pp h wd h uh hv db wh h k xhg
18. I h x BBC d bk (h p xpd bk u h h g u),bd (h xhg wd uu bd ud p), d w (p hg fd p h h d jup).
19. T d Bbd ud, h g b gd g.
20. S Kug (1991) h pp h dvpd h gu.
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0
, whh d h gu ug bd. T h h dud
gd vu ugd g.
T v gug h ud b h h h p pd b d
ugd g, h u d g. Mg d.Cu h qu v pug h xhg , whh bdd
bhv. T vd h pg h p uh bd w bhg
h db bk gh. C bk w qu h pu h
dv d w qu h , wh h h u du
p h wh gg .
O ud udd h g kg z- d, h d, xhg
bhvd pd h dd d. Bu h wh d k u h
pg vd h h d vd dp bhv. A p wh gd
xhg dpb. T pb h h pd d hw xhg
gh b gd. T g h h ud p d h, kg vd
wh gdd pu dubg u, d h vg hd h
pub ud, bu wh pub u h d bg ugh. Ad p
d g hv uggd w pp:
() Leaning Against the Wind: Iv hud w k v, wg h v
h . (T w uggd b Pu W [1958].)
(b) Reerence Rate Proposal: Iv hud v puh h xhg w
gd . (T w ppd b Eh d Bd [1975] d
h ubj W [2007].)
I bv h h ddvg u xhg g h pp
g g, du g h pp, whh wud phb
g xhg v h w dg g w h h w
gg g. Hwv, h b d h D Guw d Gd (2006, 15962) d
h v d b h pp wud b fv ubg g. (T d
pu v h d pp. M ju h h wud b v bzg.)
Adp h pp wud qu g h
xhg (pub fv xhg ) h w v . T
gh b uudd b bd wh whh v w phbd. Fuh w, v
wud b pd (pvdd w dgd puh h h ppp d) bu wud
v b qud; h pp gd g, d wud b
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wh h d g qu v. Oh w gg h xhg (.g., hugh
g h hgg p ) ud b dpd h pp
v (udg v, k jwbg).
T bg u h pb ug g . I ph p u: W u b ppd g v hugh h
ubh h d dqubu ? T hp h h b
bg kp h h w k uh g b. Bu p
h u. I p h hd u dg qubu xhg
(IMF 2006), h Fud ud h uh hd, whh d h M B
Apph, h Equbu R Exhg R Apph, d h Ex Sub Apph.
T Ex Sub Apph v h M B Apph,
whh b dd wh u u u h w h
xg NIIP/GDP , h h pg u u g d h h judgd
h udg p w. Bu h v w dpub df hd. I h d
d u, h w dd g d h h h b
ug g , d h h IMF p h h p
d b u gh . Uu h IMF p pubh h
hdg h ud wk, d h ub judg whh h
j h b.
I g w hvd, h ud h h bg
h u wud b v, hw g xhg , w h wudpuh h w h gd . T wud b g xhg
h h u hv bg hd h pu v. T wud
h b wh uh u h p wd gg.21 Bu h
h h wud b pubhd h hd vd d wud gv h
pv k wh h wd bvd qubu b, d wh xpd g
h du , d wud pvd b pub db bu h qubu xhg .
Aug h h gd w ppd Duh d, hud b
u pp ud b p xp b p w ug.
21. I gg w puud b h vwhg j u h hv dpd d b p h wh d g. I h b dpd wd bu wk. C whp pzg v upu gwh hv d , u h bv v Php uv v h g u. A p gg p kg u p
whv up bv h g up (NAIRU). I gg hub gdd p v kg u b.
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N h wh gu h h wud d b , d
wud h b h h j u, dd h d h dvpg
u d gg k. I wud pv h hvg xd xhg (b whh
uu djub pg), BBC g, h dd h wh h w, g h g h . Bu h x dd g
h u (h ) wud k h dd h xhg . I
b h uu v uh fv h u v (.g., Fk
d Dguz 1993), pub bu hw h h uh bh d g h
d whh h hud v. O h g wud xp h gd
wud d h uh ddg ud g. Ad wud f u h
hv udd h p b h b g p h p wh hd g
hv g whh vh vdd vg h xhg p h d
h k.
I pu, wud k dd g vvu d h h Duh
d. I wud ph h b g h p wh d
v, bu b ugg h u d k v dd
u. T wud b qu bu h g pp v ppvd b h
, d wud h xp w . S wud d h u
whh h u xhg wud b pb h u,
d wud h ug h u ppp d.
T dd gu g g (.g., Cv d Rh 2000). S uhv hgh dg b dz, whh h g dp b g
b v . Ipv whh h hw up bk, h p ,
h pub , j pb h . Gv k vd h
du b vdg dvu. I d dju p w p,
h wud u dd gu pg h u . Bu h
p, h u dvu f h dju d u. Ppg h
vb uk b hpu.
T h pp h fd h bu gz bu p xhg
g h b pb dw. T h pp h bu p b
wh dvp b g p g xhg
u b h. (Cu h h d xd xhg u
xp: Wh u dvpd, b h bp h w b vd.) Dvpd
u ( p u ); gg k w hv dpd g ,
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hugh gd g ; dvpg u hv djub pg. T
dv h k d h, bu k u h h v g
b gg ugh up puv . T h h v gd g k
hg p.
additional REsEaRch
T bvu qu pkd b h pdg uv whh dd h
dd, bu wh h wk h d b d d h ug d pub. N,
wud b x uu bhg h gh h h quv
gu dd b IMF h qubu xhg w b pubhd. Cp
h dd b h M B Apph d h Equbu Exhg R
Apph wud h b pb, whh u h . Ad h b h u x
p xpg h h R R Pp.
S I d gd xhg bg w d dw b h, I dub h u
vg u xhg dg. Wh h h uvd bv k dgg
d u wk dg h u h dg pd b Duh d. T u
p dd uv wk h . Bu Rdk (2007) p .
concluding REmaRks
Exhg k bg p wd h 1970, wh h w d h g
xhg k w pd b d h gzd h h xhg p h
dpd xp h uu. Bu h p h v k h x p pg
d whh v ud bv h hv p uddg hw h
wk (h REEM d) b h gz dv g b d hugh p. Suh
dD Guw d Gd bhv dx. I h pp (uk h
dd d) h pp b wh h bu g xhg k. I
hgh h h b h w hk bu h d
xhg .T v d h p p bu h w whh w hk xhg
p. Id h dz z- uggd b h dd d, p h
pb d vu gg xhg . T d ( g) xg xhg ,
vg h djub pg, bdg gg g xhg . Bu d
8/2/2019 Williamson - Regmenes cambiarios
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h h IMF hud p h du gg xhg d h
bg b-u p ud puh w h. Wh
h ud b u h h wud v pb Duh d h h h
pb xp-d gwh, wud hp u vd vvu h h p . T php h j bu h xhg p
b k h p gwh. I p: Bu h vd h vvu
hu dvp w u g bg d p, udg d p
u bz wh pp k h vvu.
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REfEREncEs
Agu, Av, d C Cd. 2006. T Ef R Exhg R Mg E Gwh. C Bk Ch, Sg. Php.
Bh, Phpp, d E v Wp. 2004. Hgh Od Exp A Pg. WkgPp 04.03. Gz: Sw N Bk, Sud C Gz.
B, R, Dw Hd, d I Hu. 2007. Cg US Ib. Pp pd P Iu I E, BRUEGEL, d K Iu IE P wkhp p du h gb b, Whg, Fbu 89.
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