World Grain Forum – 2018 – Beijing

Australia Feed Grain Situation

内容 - Contents

GTA 背景介绍

主产区

产季

数据

市场解决方案

结论

GTA Background

Production Regions

The Season

The Data

The Market Solutions

Conclusion

GTA 宗旨

“为澳大利亚粮食价值链提供产品、服务和宣传，从而促进、推动粮食贸易。”

粮食贸易标准

贸易规章及合同

争议调解服务

贸易及市场准入

培训及发展

澳大利亚粮食产业——行为守则Australian Grain Industry Code of Practice

澳大利亚是全球唯一一个制定此类守则的粮食出口国，澳大利亚粮食产业以此为豪

遵守该守则，是成为GTA会员的一项强制性要求

GTA拥有280多个会员，覆盖90%左右的贸易，包括所有主要出口商

澳大利亚粮食主产区Australian Grain Growing Areas

Sorghum

高粱

Barley

大麦

粮食主产区

2016 降雨量

Key : Blue is “good” ☺ ; Red is “not good” …

2017 降雨量

Key : Blue is “good” ☺ ; Red is “not good” …

2018 –创纪录的东部沿海地区干旱Record East Coast Drought

受旱灾影响地区:– 新南威尔士州

(NSW)– 昆士兰州 (QLD)– 维多利亚州 (VIC)– 南澳大利亚州 (SA)

NSW

VIC

SA

QLD

受影响区域+

约占澳洲产粮区面积的63%63% of crop area drought effected

持续9个月的降雨量减退

9 month decile rainfall

西澳大利亚州(WA)：

☺

澳大利亚粮食产量Australian Production

干旱，但是西澳(WA) 作物良好

Drought, but WA OK

澳大利亚粮食出口- Aust Exports(wheat, barley, canola, chickpeas, sorghum)

澳大利亚粮食出口至中国 – Aust Exports to China(wheat, barley, canola, sorghum)

Growth trend in China Demand & Exports

干旱

Barley60%Canola

8%

Sorghum11%

Wheat21%

Growth in Feed Grain Demand

大麦的需求&供给 – Barley S&D

China65%

Saudi Arabia17%

Japan14%

00%

United Arab Emirates

4%

Top 5 Importers (5yr)

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

2011–12 2012–13 2013–14 2014–15 2015–16 2016–17 2017/18

Australian Barley

Production Domestic Export

主产区为澳洲东南部以及西澳大利亚州17/18年度供应640万吨。平均年供800-900万吨 – 相对稳定平均出口550万吨国内饲料需求增长总需求~800万吨低期末存货

Production focused on SE Aust & WA

Supply 6.4mmt 17/18. average ~8-9mmt – relatively stable,

Exports average ~5.5mmt

Growing domestic feed demand

Total Demand ~ 8mmt

Low carry-outs

高粱产量 – Sorghum Production

主产区为新南威尔士州北部&昆士兰州低鞣质总供给约为200-250万吨，近几年有所下降出口趋势上升（国内饲料需求降低 – 被小麦所取代）低期末存货中国与日本为主要市场出口50%，国内饲料40$

Production in NNSW & QLD

Low tannins

Total Supply around 2-2.5mmt, but note lower in recent years

Exports trending up (domestic feed lower -replaced by wheat)

Low carry outs

China & Japan key markets

Exports 50%, domestic feed 40%

主要作物的蛋白质含量中的可消化部分1

Corn Barley Sorghum Wheat

Protein % 8.0 10.0 10.0 11.0

SID essential

amino acid

Lysine % 0.22 0.31 0.20 0.27

Methionine % 0.16 0.15 0.16 0.16

M+C % 0.32 0.35 0.30 0.39

Threonine % 0.25 0.25 0.28 0.27

Arginine % 0.33 0.40 0.34 0.46

Isoleucine % 0.27 0.29 0.35 0.35

Valine % 0.35 0.40 0.44 0.431Evonik AminoDat 5.0

Source: AEGIC, AGIC Asia Conference, 2018

典型的饲料中可消化蛋白质Typical Feed Digestible Protein Content

被隐藏的澳大利亚粮食作物赤字：小麦The hidden Australian grain deficit: wheat

12

1. 2.No problem visible:

Production (blue) > Consumption (orange)

National

East Coast Consumption > Production by

100%

East Cost

被隐藏的澳大利亚粮食作物赤字：大麦（相同的故事）The hidden Australian grain deficit: Barley (same story)

1No problem visible:

Production (blue) > Consumption

(orange)

2 East Coast Consumption >

Production

National East Coast

为什么澳大利亚国内需求没有下降？Why isn’t Australian Domestic Demand Falling?

• Reason原因：

1. Strong feed demand 强大的饲料需求

2. Strong cattle “crush” margins 巨大的牛畜“加工”差价

3. =>Price of cattle in NSW is almost double now compared to the last drought period 新南威尔士州牛类

活畜的价格与上次干旱期相比高出接近一倍

上次大旱之后下降50%

50% fall during last sig drought

Cattle Price

面对强烈需求的市场主导解决方案

Market Driven Solutions to Strong Demand

解决方案 1：从西部往东部输送粮食Solution 1: Move grain from West to East Coast

Grain is currently being

shipped and moved by rail

from:

•Western Australia

•South Australia

To:

•Queensland

•New South Wales

•Victoria

Grain Surplus

Grain Deficit

Shipping Grain

Movement by Rail

目前，粮食通过海路与火车运输由：•西澳大利亚州•南澳大利亚州

至：•昆士兰州•新南威尔士州•维多利亚州

解决方案 2：从国际市场进口Solution 2: Import from International Markets

目前在考虑粮食进口

此举在澳大利亚历史上极为少见

伴随重大的生物安全风险&代价

遵守国际植物保护公约(IPPC)的相关协议

Grain imports are under consideration. This is historically rareIncurs significant biosecurity risks & costsComplies with IPPC prototols

Chance of above median Rainfall Dec- Feb

Sorghum Area

1 month rainfall Decile: October

Sorghum Area

解决方案 3：大量的夏季高粱作物Solution 3: Large Sorghum Summer Crop

由于冬季作物干旱而弃种的的大量地区为高粱提供了更多的可耕种面积。

目前状态下高粱作物的产量预计为190-250万吨。

如果高粱产量足够高，会替代其他作物从而消除进口的需要。

作物产量主要取决于什么？降雨量

十月降雨量: 良好

十二月至明年二月降雨量预测：平均

Due to large abandoned area from a poor winter crop,there is increased acreage available for sorghum planting.

The sorghum crop has the potential to be between 1.9 to2.5 million mt given current conditions.

If the crop is large enough, it will substitute for other grainsand is likely to eliminate the need for importing.

What does the crop size depend on? Rainfall

October rainfall: Good

December to Feb rainfall forecast : Average

总结Summary

Reliability - Australia is a long term, reliable supplier of high quality feed and food grains

Importance - China is an important market and customer for Australian Grains

Distribution - Importantly at both a global and domestic level, open and competitive market prices efficiently “allocate” & distribute grain supply based on relative values

Relationship & Quality – Australian industry recognises the importance of respectful and strong customer relationships and delivering high performance grains to consumers.

可靠性 - 澳大利亚是高品质饲料和粮食的长期可靠供应商

重要性 - 中国是澳大利亚谷物的重要市场和客户

分销 - 在全球和国内层面同样重要，

开放和竞争的市场价格根据相对价值有效地“分配”和分销粮食供应

关系和质量 - 澳大利亚谷物行业认识

到与客户维持相互尊敬、紧密关系的重要性以及向消费者提供高品质谷物的重要性

GTA 宗旨

“为澳大利亚粮食价值链提供产品、服务和宣传，从而促进、推动粮食贸易。”

粮食贸易标准 贸易规章及合同

争议调解服务贸易

及市场准入培训及发展

Mr. Pat O’Shannassy, Chief Executive Officer E: pat.oshannassy@graintrade.org.au

www.graintrade.org.au