World War II The Nature of Public Opinion. I. Two Theories of Public Opinion A.The Moody Public 1.People are uninformed and uninterested in politics

World War II

The Nature of Public Opinion

I. Two Theories of Public OpinionA. The Moody Public

1. People are uninformed and uninterested in politics

Public Perceives High Levels of Aid

Public Perceives High Levels of Aid

Actual Aid Is Low as % of Budget – Allows Politicians to Frame Issue as either “Cut X%” or “Give X%”



2. Public opinion is fickle and subject to dramatic, irrational shifts




3. The public is easily manipulated by elites in government or the media

Public Trusts the President More than Itself!





B. The Rational Public1. Public opinion is nuanced

Iraq Survey (Sept 2008)





B. The Rational Public1. Public opinion is nuanced2. Public opinion is stable

Public Priorities: 1975








B. The Rational Public1. Public opinion is nuanced2. Public opinion is stable3. Public opinion is seldom manipulated

II. World War II: A Test• Historical Overview

– Germany attacks most of Europe. US remains neutral, but ships war material to Britain and hunts German subs.

– Japan attacks China. US imposes sanctions, including embargoes of steel, rubber, and oil.

– Japan, seeking to end sanctions by seizing British and French colonies, attacks US fleet to prevent intervention and then invades Southeast Asia.

– Germany declares war on US, partly due to US anti-submarine efforts and partly due to desire for help against Russia.

– Allies insist on unconditional surrender, focus on Germany first. Germany occupied; atomic bombs dropped on Japan, which surrenders.

– More than 400,000 Americans die.

A. The Conventional View1. Public knew little about the wars in

Europe and Asia and cared even less.

A. The Conventional View

1. Public knew little about the wars in Europe and Asia and cared even less.

2. Public irrationally opposed paying for a strong national defense to deter any attack

A. The Conventional View1. Public knew little about the wars in

Europe and Asia and cared even less.2. Public irrationally opposed paying for a

strong national defense to deter any attack

3. Public was isolationist until Pearl Harbor, then was shocked into support for war

A. The Conventional View

1. Public knew little about the wars in Europe and Asia and cared even less.

2. Public irrationally opposed paying for a strong national defense to deter any attack

3. Public was isolationist until Pearl Harbor, then was shocked into support for war

4. Public opinion was very racist and anti-Semitic, which caused the US Government to firebomb Japanese civilians and ignore the Holocaust.

B. Evidence1. What did the American public

know?October 1938 – The Munich

AgreementDo you believe that England and France did the best thing in giving in to Germany instead of going to war?

Yes 59%Do you think that this settlement will result in peace for a number of years or in a greater possibility of war?

Greater possibility of war 60%November 1938: Hitler says he has no more territorial ambitions in Europe. Do you believe him?

No 92%

Public expected to fight in EuropeIf there is (a war between any of the big European countries) do you think the United States will be drawn into it?

Jan 1937

July 1938

Jan 1939

Apr 1939

Aug 1939

Yes 38% 54% 57% 58% 76%

Do you think the United States will go into the war in Europe some time before it is over, or do you think we will stay out of the war?

010

2030

4050

6070

8090

Oct-

39

Dec-3

9

Feb-4

0

Apr-4

0

Jun-

40

Aug-4

0

Oct-

40

Dec-4

0

Feb-4

1

Apr-4

1

Go In

Stay Out

Public expected to fight Japan

December 5-7 1941 (before Pearl Harbor): Will the US go to war with

Japan in the near future? Yes 52%No 27%

No Opinion 21%

Poor understanding of European politicsApril 27, 1940: If Italy goes into the war, which side do you think she will join – Germany or England and France?

No opinion 33%Opinion:

Allies 45%Germany 55%

2. Was the public irrationally anti-military before World War II? Should the United States require every able-bodied young man of 20 years old to serve in the army, navy, or the air forces for one year? Yes No

Dec 1938 37% 63%

Oct 1939 39% 61%

June 2 1940 50% 50%

June 23 1940

64% 36%

Should the United States… (% answering Yes)

Dec 1935

Jan 1938

Oct 1938

Dec 1938

Build a larger navy? 72% 74% 71% 86%

Increase the strength of its army?

70% 69% 65% 82%

Enlarge its air force? 84% 80% 90%

3. How isolationist was the American public? • Anti-war sentiment: strong until

Pearl Harbor.

3. How isolationist was the American public? • Anti-war sentiment: strong until

Pearl Harbor.• Public exhibited some degree of

strategic calculation

Strategic Thinking: GermanyWhich of these two things do you think is the more important for the United States to try to do – keep out of the war ourselves, or help England win, even at the risk of getting into the war?

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Keep Out

Help England

Aug 1941: What do you think are England’s chances of winning if we

0.00%

10.00%

20.00%

30.00%

40.00%

50.00%

60.00%

70.00%

Go nofurther

Use ournavy

Use allmilitaryforces

Sure

Probable

Fifty-Fifty

Poor

Hopeless

Late Nov 1941: Which is more important, keeping the US out of war, or defeating Germany?Keep Out 32%Defeat Germany68%

Strategic thinking: JapanShould the US take steps now to prevent Japan from becoming more powerful, even if it risks war?

Aug 1941 Oct/Nov 1941

Yes 51% 64%

No 31% 25%

No Opinion / Undecided

18% 11%

4. Was the public racist and anti-Semitic, and did this influence the conduct of the war?

1937: "What kinds of people do you

object to?" 35% Jews

27% Cheap peopleBoisterous or Loud people

14% Uncultured or Unrefined PeopleDumb people

<14% All other types

a. Anti-Semitism

Wartime Belief in the HolocaustDecember 1944: Do you believe the stories that the

Germans have murdered many people in concentration camps are true or not true?

Not true 12%No opinion 12%True 76%

Of those who said true: Nobody knows, of course, how many may have been murdered, but what

would be your best guess?100,000 or less 27%100,000 to 500,000 5%500,000 to 1,000,000 1%1,000,000 6%2,000,000 to 6,000,0008%6,000,000 or more 4%Unwilling to guess 25%

US government estimates were > 3,000,000 in Poland camps alone.

b. Anti-Japanese Racism

Dec 10:

December 12, 1941

c. Racism and Blame: Enemy leaders or enemy people?

June 1944: Which of the following statements comes closest to how you feel, on the whole, about the people who live in ______?

Germany Japan

Will always want war 25% 57%

Are too easily led into war 47% 30%

Do not like war; potentially good citizens 28% 13%

c. Racism and Blame: Enemy leaders or enemy people?June-Aug 1944: In the war with ______ do you feel our chief enemy is the ________ people as a whole or the __________ government?

Germany Japan

People 8% 11%

Government 63% 55%

Both 27% 31%

No opinion 2% 3%

Who is more cruel at heart, Germans or Japanese?Germans 18%Japanese 82%

December 17, 1941: Which country is the greater threat to the future of the United States, Germany or Japan?

• Germany 64%• Japan 15%• Equal Threats 15%• No opinion 6%

d. Strategy: Racism or Rationality?i. Threat Assessment

ii. Willingness to target civilians• April 1938: Do you think all nations

should agree not to bomb civilians in cities during wartime?

–Yes 91%

December 30, 1941

July 1944: If you had your say, how would we treat the people who live in Germany after this war?

• Lenient treatment, active assistance, re-education, etc: 65%

• Strict supervision, probationary period, isolation, disarmament: 42%

• Severe measures, punitive action, torture, extermination: 8%

December 1944: What do you think we should do with Japan as a country after the war?

• Re-educate, rehabilitiate: 8%• Supervise and control: 28%• Destroy as a political entity, break up:

33%• Kill all Japanese: 13%

November 1944: If it means an earlier end to the war, would you approve or disapprove of the Allies using poison gas against ______ cities?

German Japanese

Approve 20% 23%

Disapprove

76% 71%

No Opinion

4% 6%

September 1945: Use of the atomic bomb against Japan

• Should not have used bomb: 5%• Should have conducted

demonstration first: 14%• Should have used two bombs on

cities: 54%• Should have quickly used many more

of them before Japan had a chance to surrender: 23%

e. Internment February 13, 1942

Internment of Japanese-Americans

December 1942: Do you think the Japanese who were moved from the Pacific Coast should be allowed to return to the Pacific Coast when the war is over?

Would allow all to return35%

Only Japanese who are citizens26%

Would allow none to return17%

Undecided22%

C. Revisiting the World War II Example• Public was informed about German and Japanese

expansion, and was willing to risk war to oppose this expansion

• Public opposed entering war against Germany when probability of victory was lower but supported it when probability of victory was higher.

• Public supported defense spending as threat increased

• Public never believed the US could ignore the rest of the world

• Public was indeed racist and anti-Semitic, but generally maintained a strategic attitude to fighting the war. Racism internment of Japanese-Americans and hate for ordinary Japanese people.

Documents

World War II The Nature of Public Opinion. I. Two Theories of Public Opinion A.The Moody Public 1.People are uninformed and uninterested in politics