ZAKARIA Presentation

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REGIONAL WORKSHOP IN DEVELOPING PARTNERSHIPS FOR WATER AND CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION1- 5 DECEMBER 2008, HOTEL EQUATORIAL BANGI-PUTRAJAYA, SELANGOR, MALAYSIA

NAHRIM/NARBO/ADB

MALAYSIA: Water andClimate Change - “projection,vulnerability, adaptation,

olic , ca acit buildin , etc”

Ir. SALMAH BINTI ZAKARIA, PhD, FAsc

rector enera National Hydraulic Research Institute Of Malaysia (NAHRIM)Ministry Of Natural Resources And Environment (MoNRE)

The views expressed in this paper/presentation are the views of the author and do not necessarily reflect the

1

views or policies of the Asian Development Bank (ADB), or its Board of Governors, or the governments theyrepresent. ADB does not guarantee the accuracy of the data included in this paper and accepts noresponsibility for any consequence of their use. Terminology used may not necessarily be consistent withADB official terms.



WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT

CLIMATE CHANGE & POLICYCLIMATE CHANGE PROJECTION

ADAPTATION

CAPACITY BUILDING

2



Water Resources

Management

3



30years:1990-2020

A Developed Country with the

Have appropriate economic independence,shelter, food and clothin of acce tablequality

Clean land, clean air, clean water

,bio-diversity well managed for ourcontinued survival

4



189 River Basins

330,000 sq km

5



Water Challenges

Water su l

Water quality

Governance and Management Instruments

6



ater upp y

Domestic and Industrial

Environment y ropower

Transportation Recreation

7



Hydrological balance in Malaysia(billion cubic meters per year)

Region Rainfall Distribution

Surface

Runoff

Evapo-

Trans piration

Ground

water Recharge

JICA Study (1982)

Pen Malaysia

Sabah

320

194

147

113

153

67

20

14

Sarawak 476 306 140 30

Mala sia (1982 990 566 360 64

SMHB (2000)

Pen Malaysia 324 152 152 20

8



D&I(in MLD) 9,543 15,285 20,338 24,485 28,131 31,628

(in million m3/yr)* 3,483 5,579 7,423 8,937 10,268 11,544

Irrigation Water

( million m3/yr)

, , , , , ,

Total (mill m3/yr)* 10,833 12,086 13,940 15,069 16,400 17,676

o runo . . . . . .

9

Extracted and calculated from SMHB et al



Water Qualit Pollutants

Chemical n ustr a po utants

residuals from agricultural fertilisers and pesticides households

microbial contamination

agriculture and livestock waste

Silts, sediment and construction waste material

House waste

Oil spills

Leachate from land fills

10



Solid waste in rivers

Solid wastes

11



Multi coloured Rivers

12



s a, u ope a e ca

More than 40% of lakes were identifiedas eutrophic

Eutrophic, very rich in nutrients

A preliminary desk top study in 2005surveyed 90 lakes and reservoirs

more t an 60% o t e 90 a es anreservoirs surveyed were eutrophic

13



oas a a ers Ma or ollution sources

From the hinterland, washed to the

coast

wastes

Animal and agricultural waste

land reclamation Oil Pollution Source: DOE

At risk from oil pollution

Discharges and spills from oil

an ers

vessel accidents

coastal oil refineries and pipelines

14

Oil Spill Cleanup (Source: DOE)



t er nv ronmenta a enges

Floods

Droughts

Erosion (coastal and rivers)

Forest Fires

15



Floods 2006/07

16



Tmn Sri MudaFloods - OldShah Alam,

Dec1995

Kelantan

Kuala Lumpur,

2005

17

PJ, 2000



Kuala Lumpur 1971Floods - Older

KL Railway, around 1920s

18

Padang Kelab Selangor…. 1949Kuantan 1975



Drou ht

19



20



ores res an aze now

have a common recurrentof 3-4 years in Malaysia

Major threats causing the

loss of peat swamp forests

Cause: Improper peat landmanagement

The New Straits Times 16 Feb 2002

Fires to be put out within two weeks

Firemen battle peat fires200 firemen are battling the biggest forest and peat fires

21

tr ggere y t e current ry spe at t e u t ar orest

reserve in Lembah Beringin, Kuala Kubu Baru. As of

press time the firemen had succeeded in putting out fires

covering over 5,000ha of the forest.



Flooded hollows and basins provide ideal

growing conditions of reeds and sedgesand in humid tropical climate, indigenous

shrubs and rain forests trees

22•Http://www.nics.gov.uk/doe env/leaflet5.htm

Key to Formation of Peat Bog



1. When the vegetation dies, it does not rot away

completely as the water in the hollows prevents

oxygen, which most decomposer organisms need tolive, from reaching the dead plants. The partly-rotted

plants gradually build up to form the peat swamp.

2

2. Eventually dark fibrous peat completely fills the

hollow to form a peat swamp basin.

3. Most of the nutrients are tied up in the peat and so the

only minerals available for plant growth are those

dissolved in rainfall. The decomposition of the rotted

material create a very acidic environment, and in

humid tropical climate, rain forests with appropriate

root systems thrived.

4. In some areas, eg Sarawak, an increasing thickness of

peat slowly accumulates and the surface of the peat

swamp starts to rise above the surrounding land,

sometimes reaching a height of more than 7m after

more than 6 000 ears of rowth. The water table in

4the raised mass fluctuates seasonally. But the moist

condition remains because of the sponge-like abilities

of the peat and the humidity and wet climate. The

original peat swamp has now become a raised peat

23•Http://www.nics.gov.uk/doe env/leaflet5.htm

an .



Peat Environment

24



Exacerbate current water challenges

25



overnance an anagementInstruments

Generally Sectoral, and needs to bentegrate n areas

Institutions and Legislationsw , v y y u

Financing

26



Existing Over-arching Policy on

Water Resources Management-

2010 describes development thrusts for a sustainableenvironmental development, IWRM

g t a ays a an or t e years - ‘Adopting an integrated and holistic approach in addressing

environmental and resource issues to attain sustainabledevelo ment.’ IWRM and IRBM

Ninth Malaysia Plan (9MP) for the years 2006-2010 Promotes environmental stewardship to strengthen

Preventive measures to mitigate negative environmental effects atsource

Intensifying conservation efforts

Stren thenin of the institutional ca acit and re ulator framework

27



From a technicall 1 ideal stand oint, Mala sia mi ht wish to create a

Water Resource Ministry (WRM)…2003: Institutional Study on Water Resources Management in Malaysia

• Malaysia has a highly fragmented

water management system.’

To have a ‘Water Resource Ministry’ toprovide single-focus, sustainable,

‘Integrated Water ResourceManagement’ (IWRM) for Malaysia

system is disorganised.

• Malaysia does not have anempowered champion for water.

•sustainable national policy/framework

for water.

28

…But several ‘fixes’ to the current water management system would berequired, and there would be significant challenges to be overcome

Note: (1) Technical in this case refers to water-related technical issues



Reor anisin of Ministries, 29 March 2004

Two new ministries related to the water sector Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment (MONRE)

Dealing with land and water resources andenv ronmen

Ministry of Energy and Water and Communication(MEWC) Dealing with service provisions utilities

Issues on agriculture waters and project approvalsat local levels remain with the Ministry of Agriculture and Local Authorities, respectively

Preparation of National Physical Plan (NPP)

Preparation of National Water Policy

29



Goale es a s men o an e c en , equ a e an sus a na e

national spatial framework to guide the overall development ofthe country towards achieving developed nation status by 2020

Objectives

To rationalise national spatial planning for economic efficiencyan g o a compe veness.

To optimise utilisation of land and natural resources forsustainable development.

To promote balanced regional development for national unity.

To secure spatial and environmental quality and diversity for ahigh quality of life.

30



P1: Develop t he count ry as a single int egrat ed unit .

P2: Promote areas of greatest growth potential

P3: Maximise t he use of exi st ing and commit t ed infrastructure.

.

P5: Encourage t he development of regions based on t hei r pot ent ials.

P6: Favour public transport over private vehicle use for inter- ur an an ntra-c ty movement.

P7: Strive towards compact urban forms with clear identity.

P8: Avoid disrupt ing ecological st abil i t y.

- P10: Strengthen urban and rural linkages.

31



Currentl bein looked into

There is a need to have an all inclusive NationalWater Policy, acceptable and supported by alls a e o e s, a c u e s ou e

Strategies of managing all the challenges, including climate

change Action Plans with milestones

Supported by needed resources

Proposed a National Framework for Water Resources

Mana ement NFWRM

32

4/i



Vision for National Framework4/i

for WRM (NFWRM) Water Resources Management fully integrated

through out the country from the head waters to the coastal areas

Equity distribution of water between the sectors Water supply for industry, housing and agriculture, integrated

and well coordinated

Clean and vibrant rivers and water bodies

Malaysia’s biodiversity and gene bank, recognised,protected, thriving and contributing to the country’seconomy

Floods, erosion, land slides and other land & waterrelated challenges, well managed and under

3312/10/2008

control



i

Focuses on Water resources governance

Incorporate land and water, together with other relatedresources, weave n a matr x t at

Complement one another Workable, and developing incrementally, if necessary Su orted monitored assisted and enforced b all

stakeholders

Ensure sustainable economic growth and pristine

environment

Managed the vulnerability of the country attributed toimpact of climate change

Su ort, nurture and develo related water servicesturning them into successful businesses; beyond theshores of the nation

Must have action plans with targeted milestones

34

i



Suggested Milestones NFWRM

Immediate Term 6 months to 2 years : secure financial support to develop theframework - as directed by the NWRC and chaired by the YAB PM

Short Term 2-3 years: Develop the framework, together with more detail milestones

and prioritize action plans

Medium Term 3-10 years: implement prioritized areas of actions such as

over-arching IRWM legislations to fit-in (adapt, adopt, amend) existing waterrelated laws and proposed water related laws, which lies within a connectedand contiguous single environmental system or units

setting up river basin organizations (189 of them) to manage developmentwithin each basin

manage mpact o g o a warm ng on c mate c anges an water resources

Visionary Term Over 2 planning horizons or more, each of 25 to 30 years

Achieve Clean Water in lakes, rivers , ground water resources and coastal

The water sector developed to include development of related businessesproviding service provisions beyond our shores

May need to be packaged to anticipate/dovetail election schedules,not only to ensure compliance but to monitor impacts

35



Climate Chan e

& Policy

36

i



Generic Policies - 1 Adopts a “precautionary principle” and “no regret”

policy,a ac on, us e n e r r g , cou e a en o

mitigate or adapt to climate change, even though there

are still scientific uncertainties. Utilises the overarching framework on sustainable

developments goals of the Third Malaysia Plan (1976-1980)

Some Strategies Previously adoptednergy sec or s a ma or con r u on o s o e

atmosphere. Besides petroleum/oil; Identify alternative energy sources such as

hydro power and gas ,

transport sector

Implement public awareness programs promoting energyefficiency, recycling and use of public transport (cont…)

37

i



Generic Policies - 2

Some Strategies Previously adopted (…cont) Maintain an effective forest management and

conservat on program to preserve o vers ty an s n sfor GHGs

Ensure food sufficiency by through appropriatemana ement and R&D

Undertake R&D in Climate Change Projection

Additional policies in 2008 Settin u of a Cabinet Committee on Climate Chan e

Draft National Policy on Climate Change completed

Commitment of the National Water Resources Council onthe need to manage impact of climate change on water

Endorsement of the need for finer downscaling of climate changeprojection

Endorsement of a study on impact assessment on water resourcesrelated infrastructure

38



Malaysia’s Milestones Commitment on Climate Change

1989 Malaysia ratified Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the OzoneLayer

1995 Malaysia set up National Climate Committee

2000 Malaysia submitted Initial National Communication (INC) to UNFCCC

a ays a ra e yo o ro oco

Set up National Committee on Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

2002 NAHRIM commenced Reg Hydro-Climatic Model for Peninsula Malaysia (Reg-

2004 Malaysia begins preparation for Second National Communication , anticipatedto complete in 2009, uses NAHRIM CCProj as base line for WG2

2007 NAHRIM commenced to CC Pro ection Stud for Sabah and Sarawak anticipated to complete in 2010

2008 Cabinet Committee on Climate Change set up and Draft National ClimatePolicy Completed

39

2008 NWRC endorsed the need for downscaling of climate change projection to finerresolution and R&D in impact assessment



Climate Chan e

Projection

40



Climate Chan e Pro ections Currently, steered by the CC Projection Sub-

committee, chaired by NAHRIM, under WG2 fort e preparat on o 2

Institutions currently involved

MMD (Malaysian Meteorological Dept), Ministry of

Science and Technology, University Malaya, UM

Anticipated more institutions and universities willbe interested eg Universiti Teknologi Malaysia (UTM)

41



GLOBAL* MALAYSIA

1906-2005 1968-2002

Surfacetem erature

0.74 0.49 – 0.91**

(ºC)

1961-2003 1993-2003 1986-2006ea eve

rise (mm/yr). . 1.25

* IPCC 4TH ASESSMENT REPORT (AR4), 2007**

42

***DID, 2007

42



NAHRIM REGIONAL

HYDROCLIMATE MODEL

-

Peninsular Malaysia, ‘Regional Hydroclimate Modelof Peninsular Malaysia (RegHCM-PM)’ was

Downscaling global climate change simulation data(Canadian GCM1 current and future climate data) that are atvery coarse reso u on ~ m , o ner spa a reso u on(~9km) for Peninsular Malaysia

Able to uantif the im act of the com lex to o ra hical andland surface features of Peninsular Malaysia on its climateconditions.

43



Data grid of CGCM1 that were used in the RegHCM-PM.-

shown as blue. The land grids which are used in theRegHCM-PM are shown as green.

44



The grid layout for the outer domain (1st Domain,,

under Mercator projection.

45



46



Locations of selected stream gaugingLocations of selected stream gauging

stat ons an waters e sstat ons an waters e s

47



SubSub--regions in Peninsular Malaysiaregions in Peninsular Malaysia

4848



RESULTS: Future Air TemperatureRESULTS: Future Air Temperature

Mean temperature during the future period is.

deg Celcius.

up to 2.0 deg Celcius all over Peninsular

.

4949



50



mm r f Hi ri l An F r M n hl Air

Temperature (2025-2050)

Subregion NameWestCoast Klang Selangor

Teren-gganu

Kelan-tan Pahang

MaximumHistorical 28.9 27.7 27.7 28.2 28.0 28.3

Future 30.7 29.7 29.5 29.9 29.6 29.9

Air Temp(deg C)

Increase 1.8 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6

% Increase 6.2% 7.2% 6.5% 6.0% 5.7% 5.7%

Mean Historical 27.3 26.5 26.4 25.5 25.3 26.1

MonthlyAirTemp(deg C)

Future 28.6 27.9 27.8 26.8 26.5 27.4

Increase 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.3

% Increase 4.7% 5.3% 5.3% 5.1% 4.7% 5.0%

MinimumMonthlyAirTemp

Historical 24.9 24.8 24.7 21.9 21.0 22.8

Future 26.2 25.5 25.4 23.1 22.4 24.1

Increase 1.3 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.4 1.3

5151

ncrease . . . . . .



RESULTS: Future Preci itationRESULTS: Future Preci itation

More extreme hydrological conditions in the futurema be ex ected since hi her maximum and lowerminimum precipitation are observed.

Increase in maximum monthly precipitation of up to, .

Decrease in minimum monthly precipitation from

32% to 61% for all over Peninsular Malaysia.There is a substantial decrease in futureprecipitation and river flow at the northwestern sub-

re ion es eciall at Kedah watershed ofPeninsular Malaysia, when compared to thehistorical conditions

5252

Summary of Historical And Future Monthly Precipitation (2025-2050)



y y p ( )

Sub-region Name

es

Coast Klang

e an-

gor

eren-

ggau

e a-

ntan

a an

g Perak

e a

h

o o

r

Historical 600.0 436.2 564.1 1271.2 929.7 633.6 722.9 626.7 591.7

MonthlyPrecip(mm)

Future 560.3 601.3 525.7 1913.9 1128.5 684.6 767.8 705.3 538.2

Diff. -39.7 165.1 -38.4 +642.7 +198.8 +51.0 +44.9 +78.3 -53.5

% -6.6 +37.8 -6.8 +50.6 +21.4 +8.0 +6.21 +12.5 -9.0

Mean

Monthly

Historical 179.2 190.1 190.2 289.0 221.8 198.5 192.9 173.6 187.3

Future 176.2 182.3 180.9 299.0 239.5 208.4 199.4 176.6 180.0rec p

(mm)Diff. -3.0 -7.8 -9.3 +10.0 +17.7 +9.9 +6.5 +3.0 -7.3

(%) -1.7 -4.1 +4.9 +3.5 +7.9 +4.9 +3.4 +1.7 -3.9

Historical 12.4 12.8 12.2 33.6 15.4 24.5 9.0 2.1 13.3MinimumMonthlyPrecip(mm)

Future 7.9 5.9 8.3 14.0 10.9 16.6 4.1 1.1 5.2

Diff. -4.5 -6.9 -3.9 -19.6 -4.5 -7.9 -4.9 -1.0 -8.1

5353

- . - . - - . - . - . - . - - .



Table C is a summar of simulated monthl flowsduring the historical and future periods at the

selected Peninsular Malaysia watershed.

variability with increased hydrologic extremes are

expected in Kelantan, Pahang, Terengganu andera .

Increase in maximum monthly flows from 11% to

Decrease in minimum monthly flows from 31% to93% for Johor and Selangor.

5454



Summary of Historical And Future Monthly Flows (2025-2050)

River Klang Selangor DungunKelan-

tan Pahang Perak Muda Johor

Historica31.2 107.9 398.4 1535.1 1697.4 523.7 307.4 82.7

MaximumMonthly

Flows(cms)

Future 45.8 108.5 569.5 1950.7 2176.6 578.2 340.0 94.0

Diff. +14.6 +0.6 +171.1 +415.6 +479.2 +54.5 +32.6 +11.3

(%) +46.8 +0.6 +42.9 +27.1 +28.2 +10.4 +10.6 +13.7

Mean

Historica

l

14.4 40.7 93.4 535.9 669.6 286.4 105.6 32.7

on yFlows(cms)

u ure . . . . . . . .

Diff. -1.1 -3.2 +4.9 +65.8 +48.5 +13.3 -1.6 -0.9

(%) -7.6 -7.9 +5.2 +12.3 +7.2 +4.6 -1.5 -2.8

MinimumMonthlyFlows

Historical

2.6 7.1 13.1 158.4 156.3 183.6 25.3 9.8

Future 3.5 0.5 10.8 125.8 122.7 139.2 5.3 6.8

5555

(cms) Diff. +0.9 -6.6 -2.3 -32.6 -33.6 -44.4 -20 -3

(%) +34.6 -93.0 -17.6 -20.6 -21.5 -24.2 -79.1 -30.6



u y

56



Adaptation Plans Formulating National Overarching Policies

Strategies for sustainable development despite climate changes Setting up cabinet committee and approval of National Policy on

Prioritising in the light of limited resources, both human and financial

Incorporates x-cutting issues dealing with Climate Change Inventories –WG1 Vulnerability and Adaptation – WG2 (essentially water related) Adaptation and Mitigation – WG3 (essentially energy related)

Secretariat is Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment,

Ministries of Science and Technology, Transport, Water-Communication-Energy, International Trade, Agriculture, Finance,Prime Minister’s Department, and others

57

,



N 2: W 2 - V ln r ili n

Adaptation

on several vulnerable sectors

to formulate corresponding adaptation measures 7 vulnerable sectors (and sub-committees):

gr cu ure Forestry (FDPM) Biodiversity (FRIM) Water resources (NAHRIM) oas a an mar ne resources Public health (MOH) Energy (PTM)

2 support groups under WG2 Climate Projections (NAHRIM) - looks at climate projections studies carried

out in Malaysia, based on available climate models and data. Socio-Economic Impacts and Responses (LESTARI, UKM) - looks at socio-

economic impact and responses from global warming and climate changes aswell as ada tation measures.

58



-V&AWG

Chair-

NAHRIMClimate

Projection

NAHRIM

& ImpactsResources

LESTARI - UKM

Water PublicCoastal

MARDIResourcesNAHRIM

HealthIMR

FRIMFRIM PTMResources

JPS

59

WG II Current Progress



PUBLIC A second workshop on time series was carried out in EHRC from 30 July – 1

g

researchers in their research on air pollution and temperature. We expect to finish itby the end of the year and it will be presented to Prof Wong when he makes his third

visit. Another meeting is expected in this November, 2008. Compilation of

.

AGRICULTURE Preliminary vulnerability assessment of selected agriculture activities (rice, cocoa,

oil palm, aquaculture and livestock) are in progress. For rice the impact will beassessed by using DSSAT crop model, and the analysis was started by collecting

requ re so an weat er ata, an ana ys ng pro ecte weat er c anges n se ecte

rice growing areas (MADA, KADA and Seberang Perak). Meanwhile, general

adaptation strategies from other countries were compiled and analysed, where

possible the strategies can be used and applied under Malaysian environment.re m nary report on ru er an vestoc was comp ete .

WATER

RESOURCES

Appointment of a consultant to carry out assessment of the climate change on

Irrigation on selected irrigation areas and domestic water supply in Klang Valley.

Initiation of assessment of the impact of climate change on groundwater by theDepartment of Mineral and Geosciences, as well as assessment on the hydrological

changes by the Division of Hydrology, Department of Irrigation and Drainage.

Finalization of modes of carrying out the assessment of the impact on river quality

changes and hydropower supply – to determine the source for funding and personnel

60

to carry out the study.

60

WG II Current Progress



WG II Current ProgressSOCIO-

ECONOMIC

Development of proposal on ‘Socio-Economic Impacts of Climate Change On Public

Health’ for funding from Ministry of Higher Education Malaysia. Methodology

approach on developing socio-economic scenarios for vulnerability and adaptation

assessments.

FORESTRY Satisfactorily achieve current JPSM RMK-9 projects related on WG2 V&A for

forestr sector, includes Forest Rehabilitation and Conservation, Plantin of

Mangroves and Other Suitable Tree Species Along the Country’s Shoreline and

Management of Water Catchments Forest have been undertaken by JPSM under

RMK-9.

PROJECTION 2008, 59 users have registered and already accessing the hydroclimate projection at

various location in Peninsular Malaysia

COASTAL & Circulation of National Coastal Vulnerability report to sub-sector group members.

RESOURCES

BIODIVERSITY Checklist for plant species that maybe vulnerable to climate change for Peninsular

Malaysia has been compiled and can be submitted to the committee

ENERGY The V&A impact assessment for oil and gas and electricity sector is ready. The team

will further refine the impact assessment. The team managed to establish a good

networking with agencies from the transport sector. More agencies under MoT has

been artici ated in the rou . The team has been assisted b UKM for socio-

61

economic analysis.

61



-

Immediate impact on water resources x reme even s o oo s an roug s, a ec

Water supply Water quality

Agricultural production

Bio-diversity, etc

Melting Polar Ice will result in sea-level rise Inundation of low lying areas

Potentially affecting coastlines and low riverine areas

6262



Possible Climate Chan e Im lication -2

Water Availability:

long-term water shortage

Water scarcity that retards progress on Millennium

Losses from reallocations of water among

competing users Non-violent but costly conflict among competing

water users

,and manageable fluctuations in water availability

Lack of quality water

63

63

Possible Impacts as a result of stream flow



Possible Impacts as a result of stream flow –

higher high flows

Possibly are higher concentration of pollutants from variessources – dilution would be lesser

Retention of flow during these events will eventually result in

Impacts to aquatic life would be extremes – less tolerable specieswould be replaced by hardy species

Biodiversity in rivers is expected to reduce Impacts to riparian areas vegetation would be expected due to

lowering of ground water level Saline water intrusion would increase due to two reasons – saline

rise Saline water intrusion would impact productivity of agriculture

output – paddy, palm oil

64

s es spawn ng cyc e cou e a ec e



Possible Climate Chan e Im act on Groundwater

e rect mpact o c mate c ange on groun water

resources - depends upon the change in the volume and distribution of roundwater rechar e. The drier periods lead to the seasonal deficits in the moisture content of soils.

Change in Recharge

Change in Storage

65



Agriculture and Forestry

AgricultureAgriculture Increase in rainfall is bad for rubber but good for oil palm a ru er an cou e a ec e Rise in sea level could force abandoning low lying planted areas Decline of rice yields 10% for every 10C increase in temperature Decrease in rainfall would affect cro that need wet condition

ForestryForestry Physiological process - up to 40% increase in biomass growth due to

increase in photosynthesis processes

Biodiversity - still uncertain

66 6666



Coastal ResourcesCoastal Resources

(a) Mangrove-fringed mudflats (b) Sandy shores - Insignificant as existing ground

(c) Increased flooding - Reduced drainage efficiency

of tidal control gates

(a) Sandy shoreline retreat - Insignificant (b) Mangrove loss - Vertical accretion rate able to

eep pace Increased Wave Action – Insignificant Saline Intrusion - Unlikely to

67 6767



68

Geographic distribution of long-term linear trends in mean sea level (mm yr–1) for 1955 to 2003 based

on the past sea level reconstruction with tide gauges and altimetry data (from Church et al., 2004)

Figure 1. (Reproduced from Figure 5.16 of Bindoff et al. (2007)



Climate Chan e Im acts in Public health

Vector-borne diseases tropics, sub-tropics to temperate zones Den ue – Increase in urban areas. Hi h rainfall re uired for

high transmission.

Malaria - Specific temperature & rainfall required for vectorbreeding. Increase in sea level & deforestation without proper

ground. Viral diseases – Increase with increases in humidity &

temperature. Can change from endemic to epidemic forms..g. apanese encep a s.

Water-borne diseases tropics and sub-tropics Bacterial – Escherichia coli, Vibrio cholera, Salmonella sp.

ra – epa s , o omye s. Protozoa – Giardia sp. Amoeba sp.

Airborne diseases - Increase in particulate (PM10)

69 6969

,

aggravate conjunctivitis, bronchitis & asthma.



70

Adaptation Strategies in Stream Flo



Adaptation Strategies in Stream Flow

Increasing base flow in rivers through Rainwater harvesting by all community within catchment and release when

not re uired Retention ponds at higher location within catchment

Groundwater recharge techniques to supplement base flow Small and low check dams in hill areas to reduce peak flow and increasebase flow

Decrease uptake of river water (bigger flow in river) Efficient use of water for agriculture

Improvement in irrigation efficiency Industrial use to be reduced

Wider River buffer within coastal zone To reduce salt water intrusion effect

Barrages

To prevent salt water intrusion and sea level surges

Reduction of pollution

71

e er rea men was e wa er



ap a on ra eg es on roun wa er

conditions with respect to climatologic changes

Refine projections of climate change, consequences

Assess climate change effects on groundwater

Study the combined effects of increased temperature on groundwater resources

Analyze the effect of sea level rise on delta salinity

state, federal, and academic researchers

72



Resources

Water Resources

Improving hydrological forecastingImproving hydrological forecasting

Promoting widespread use of groundwaterPromoting widespread use of groundwater Changing land use practicesChanging land use practices

Demand side management for water resourcesDemand side management for water resources

Buffer zone for agriculture and forestry industries toBuffer zone for agriculture and forestry industries tominimize erosion and sedimentationminimize erosion and sedimentation

73 7373



Resources

Coastal Resources

AccommodateAccommodate

RetreatRetreat

Counter attackCounter attack

Coastal land buybackCoastal land buyback

Integrated coastal zone managementIntegrated coastal zone management

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A riculture

Develop plant varieties that are tolerant to high temperature and highDevelop plant varieties that are tolerant to high temperature and high

water use efficiencywater use efficiency Develop the means to maximize efficient usage of water and nutrientDevelop the means to maximize efficient usage of water and nutrient

Preserve PFRs and water catchments areas to ensure adequatePreserve PFRs and water catchments areas to ensure adequatewater supply for agriculturewater supply for agriculture

Develo a ro riate mana ement ractices for ostDevelo a ro riate mana ement ractices for ost--harvest handlinharvest handlin

Strengthen the integrated pest management and biocontrolStrengthen the integrated pest management and biocontrolprocedures to deal with increase incidences of pests and diseasesprocedures to deal with increase incidences of pests and diseases

Conduct research on impact of environment on the physiology ofConduct research on impact of environment on the physiology of

Establish semiEstablish semi--controlled and controlled plant and animal housingcontrolled and controlled plant and animal housing

Implement microclimatic modification through landscaping and agroImplement microclimatic modification through landscaping and agro--forestrforestr

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Forest plantation establishmentForest plantation establishment

Promotion of greater use of timberPromotion of greater use of timber

Reduction of wastage in forest harvesting andReduction of wastage in forest harvesting andincreased efficiency of wood processingincreased efficiency of wood processing

Strengthen and integrate conservation of protectedStrengthen and integrate conservation of protected

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Adaptation Strategies in Energy SectorAdaptation Strategies in Energy Sector



Adaptation Strategies in Energy Sector Adaptation Strategies in Energy Sector

In oil and gas sectorIn oil and gas sector

Built retaining wall/dredgingBuilt retaining wall/dredging

Upgrade cooling systemUpgrade cooling system

Air intake coolingAir intake cooling

Wave break waterWave break water

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y u

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Various sectors related to water



Various sectors related to water Technical

Can concurrently be identified with identification of vulnerability

Include also the need to update hydrological/hydraulics data

bases/information for future scenarios as compared to historicalextreme weather conditions and consequently

Possible modification in operations and maintenance and designrehabilitation

Plannin and Polic There is a need to capacity-built planners, macro and micro ie @

national, state and basin levels so that project planning canincorporate impacts from climate changes to ensure continued

sus a na e eve opmen policy decision makers, to ensure support for project proposals

as well as provision of adequate funding

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80



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From: RK Pachauri el, “Climate Change 2007-Synthesis Report”, IPCC



Pool our Resources

Being part of the NC2 team showed us the benefit of team work andnetworking Share our strength and strengthen our weaknesses Share the resources, expertise and finance, data & information

Understand that a positive initiative in one sector, need not be so foranother sector

o a + su comm ees WKHCCA will have the support of the 9 subcommittees

Build alliances

across the board; across expert areas; across levels of subsidiarity–

across administrative boundaries; private/public sectors partnerships,international partnerships, etc

Reaching out

vocacy an awareness: presc oo s, pr mary, er ary, pens oners Media, School curriculum, product branding, etc

Capacity building-

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, ,

Demonstration projects of best practices



THE WATER CYCLE

NAHRIM CC Projection has proceeded from the normal output of tempand rainfall, to include surface runoff/stream flow (water infrastructure

84

,

sea level rise (coastal settlement, etc)



The modeling domains of Southeast Asia; D01 denotes the large outer domain, delineated by

red lines; D02 is the intermediate domain, delineated by the large rectangular region that is

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bounded by blue lines; the domains D03, D04, D05 and D06 are the inner modeling domains where the modeling studies will be carried out at 12km grid resolution.



Land cover map (GLCC) over the Southeast Asia region and proposed

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FAO soil map over the Southeast Asia region. The color indicates soil

ma units

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Provide first cut of CC Projection for countries in the

region e resu s o a ne rom suc s u es, w e p

governments in determining the potential long term climate hydrologic

water resources Identifying vulnerabilities from the impact of climate change,

extreme weather conditions repar ng an mp ement ng a aptat on p ans

The results will provide a scientific basis informulating any policy or adaptive measures related

Countries may use it downscale to finer

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Documents

ZAKARIA Presentation