都市發展與住宅可負擔力Urban Development and Housing Affordability
• GCREC/AsRES*/ 住宅學會 * / 都市計劃學會 / 區域科學學會 / 地區發展學會 理事 (* 理事長 ) •內政部 區域計畫委員•馬來西亞 UTAR( 拉曼大學 ) MBA 國際評委
陳彥仲 (Yen-Jong Chen)[email protected]特聘教授 •成功大學 都市計劃系•能源科技與策略研究中心 副主任
2015.09.18
東華大學 經濟系
Why Urban?
Market (市 )─ places for goods exchanging City (城 ) ─ Location for Activities and Capital
Cumulation. Society(Union ,” 郊” )
“Dogs don’t have bone bargaining” (by Adam Smith)
─ For administration and ex-/import activities
ThreeEconomic Reasons
Scale Economy ( 規模經濟 )
Agglomeration ( 聚集經濟 )
Comparative Advantage ( 比較利益 )
Urban Development:
1. Urban Growth as like Human Beings---”City Beings”(Shanghai Expo, 2010)---”Urbanity” (as “personality” of human beings)
2. Urban Space Extending ─ due to Industrial Revolution
More efficient Transportation: (bus, truck, train…)
① Higher mobility② Activities diversified③ Factories move outwards of city④ More energy consumption
(esp. Mega-City)
3. Decline in downtown area4. urban renewal /
urban redevelopment/urban revitalization/urban regeneration
5. Globalization (climate, economy, culture,…)/Sustainable City--Hand down the city “alive” to next generation, and next…--Policies of TOD / Low CO2 / Green Living/Environment
protection/Energy Consumption/…
Q: What would happen if urban without planning?
Rethink: Housing Is… ? Life needs…
“Housing is for living”
Architecture… Land use planning Landscape design Space value creating…
Family life and culture… Community
/Organization… Environment protecting… Economic decision of
consumption… …also investment… …
Housing ≠ Real Estate
Housing Researches… Housing needs for households ( 區位、規模、品質… ) Housing and land use control ( 地政、市地重劃 、都市更新 ) Housing market ( 景氣循環、 交易資訊 ) Pricing ( 租金、購屋價格、 PIR 、 affordability) Financing ( 不動產貸款、 REITs 、補貼、以房養老 ) Housing Policies ( 住宅補貼、 國宅、社會住宅 ) Housing and building design ( 智能住宅 , 高齡住宅 ) Housing and transportation (commuting) (MRT, TOD…) Community, Environment, and Energy consumption Urbanization …
7
Housing Affordability
Price 480income 32
P/I 15.1
Price 443income 87P/I 5.07
Price 450income 15P/I 30.1
Price 510income 58P/I 8.8
Price 412income 43P/I 9.6
Taipei
Beijing
Singapore
Tokyo
Seoul2014 PIR by cities ( Asia)
2014 Taipei Tokyo Beijing Singapore Seoul
HousingPrice
480 510 450 443 412
HouseholdIncome
32 58 15 87 43
P/I 15.1 8.8 30.1 5.07 9.6
(in 1,000 US$)
Some Housing Numbers…
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Housing Affordability The household’s maximum price *Y
compare
the expected house priceY
the real house pricerY
no the affordability gap The gap ofhousing affordability
Estimating the probability of the gap
=> affordability risk ?!
*Y Y rYorY rYor
house price
≦ <
The Affordability Gap
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Probability of the gap
If ( - ) > 0, then there exists housing affordability risk. Given the probability density function (p.d.f.) of housing price distribution, the probability of the affordability gap can be estimated , as shown in figure.
Y *Y
Y Y
GAP dyyfdyyfPˆ
*
)()(
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