2013 Industrial Math/Stat Modeling Workshop for Graduate Students
발표자 : 장기훈
자기소개서 준비 합격통보 비자 발급 비행기 예약 회화연습 출국
PREPERATION
한국 노스캐롤라이나
11시간+6시간 !!!!
SAMSI
Statistical and Applied Mathematical Sciences Institute
NSF, Duke, NCSU, UNC, NISS SAMSI's mission is to forge a synthesis of
the statistical and the applied mathematical sciences to confront the very hardest and most important data, model-driven scientific challenges
SAMSI
2013 Industrial Math/Stat Modeling Workshop for Graduate Students
July 15-23, 2013 Objective was to expose graduate students
in mathematics, engineering, and statistics to challenging and exciting real-world problems arising in industrial and government laboratory research
8-9 am : Breakfast 9 am ~ 5 am : Working sessions
Make the report Presentation of results
SCHEDULE
PROJECTS
Numerical Modeling and Simulation of Fluid Flow with Application to Current Environmental Challenges
Burden of Sexual Transmitted Diseases in the US: Trend Analysis of Incidence Rates
Photoresponsive Polymer Beam Design for Solar Concentrator Self-steering Heliostats
Microbes and Molecules: A Microscopic Analysis of Asthma
Network Analytics and Visualization in Healthcare Urban Route Planning from Aerial Imagery
Burden of Chlamydia in the US: Trend Analysis of Incidence Rates
Ridouan Bani, Anna D. Broido, Andrew F. Brouwer,
Shih-Han Chang, Kihoon Jang, Qianqian Ma, Jiani Yin
Faculty Mentors: Howard Chang, Emory Problem Presenter: Simone Gray, CDC
Chlamydia and reporting delays Graphical trends Modeling National and State level incidence
rates Modeling incidence rates by population
demographics Hierarchical modeling
Outline
Most commonly reported bacterial STI in the US.
Caused by bacterium Chlamydia trachomatis. Though it is often asymptomatic, especially in
men, Chlamydia can lead to other serious illnesses in both men and women.
Reporting delays (administrative) mean current incidence data is unavailable.
Chlamydia
National Incidence Rates: By Race
African Americans had about 9 times higher incidence than Whites and Asians
Use available data 2000-2011 to project chlamydia incidence rates with quantified uncertainty for 2012-2013 for: The United States Each state Each demographic group
Sex Race (American Indian, Asian, Black, Hispanic, White)
Create a hierarchical model to incorporate spatial effects on variations in incidence rates
Objectives
Assume incident cases follow a Poisson distribution Natural for positive counts Log-transformed rates are not normally
distributed Y= incident cases, λ = rate, N = population,
xi = year, spatial, and demographic variables
Poisson Regression
Average absolute relative deviation (AARD)
Model Assessment
Akaike information criterion (AIC)
National and State Model
AARD calculated over 2000-2011 incident cases
Model
Variables AIC AARD-National
AARD-State
1 Year 634406
1.2% 30.5%
2 Year + State
98631 1.2% 7.3%
Model 1: National level projectionsPopulation projected linearly
Demographic Model
Model Variables AIC AARD
3 Year + Sex + Race 118525 13.1%
4 Year + Sex × Race 53191 7.4%
5 Year × Race + Sex 102259 12.3%
6 Year × Race + Sex × Race 36831 6.6%
7 Year × Sex × Race 8987 3.3%
AARD calculated over 2000-2011 incident cases
Note the importance of the Sex-Race interaction over the Year-Race interaction.
Incidence follows strong temporal trends that vary spatially and demographically.
Poisson regression allows reasonable projection for recent and current incidence.
Increased complexity does not necessarily improve predictions for aggregate data.
Current approach for uncertainty quantification gives conservative estimates.
Conclusions
Improve confidence in projections by training data on 2000-2009 data and testing on 2010-2011 for all models
Include specific race-state interactions (particularly for American Indian populations in certain states)
Include spatial correlation terms that decrease with distance.
Investigate ways to relax the Poisson assumption and account for over-dispersion
Project incidence beyond 2013
Future Work
PROGRAM
WORKING
Compile the data Analysis the data by using R Make simple statistic data Double check the data
소감 Good thing 여러 나라 학생과 학문적 교류 더 넓은 시각으로 수학을 공부 Bad thing 짧은 기간
THANK YOU