全球钢铁需求预测报告解读

继 2014年增长 0.6%之后，国际钢铁协会预测 2015年全球钢材表观消费量将增长 0.5%，达到 15.44亿吨。预计 2016年全球钢材消费量将再增长 1.4%，达到 15.65亿吨。

国际钢铁本次发布的全球钢铁需求预测报告较为保守，主要受中国经济减速的影响。该

预测报告还反映了大多数国家实施经济结构调整带来的影响，尤其是 2008年以后投资增速放缓所带来的影响。随着这些变革措施产生效果，钢铁业将出现增速放缓，全行业的重点将

放在提高运营效率上，以及钢铁产品为客户和社会带来的价值上。

国际钢协表示，尽管全球钢铁业仍然面临一些下行风险——如：欧洲部分地区地缘政治的不稳定、国际资本流动的波动性以及中国经济增速的放缓。但是一些积极因素也正在显现，

发达经济体也传来越来越多积极的消息，尤其是欧元区的复苏动力不断加强。而在发展中经

济体和新兴经济体，我们看到人们对印度的态度越来越乐观，中东北非地区和东盟地区的钢

材消费量不断增加。尽管这些积极因素不能完全抵消中国经济增速下降的影响，但仍然预期

2016年之后需求增速逐步回升。国际钢协认为中国需求将继续下降。2014年，由于中国的经济结构转型对房地产市场

产生的重大影响，中国的钢材需求量出现了继 1995年之后的首次负增长。这种局面在短期内可能不会变化，中国的钢材需求量将在 2015年和 2016年继续出现 0.5%的负增长。从中期来看，不会出现强力反弹。为了稳定减速发展的中国经济，中国政府采取了一些措施。对

于这些措施可能产生的影响，目前仍然存在一定的不确定性。

随着中国进入下一个发展阶段，中国经济的结构调整不可避免，但是需要一定时间。从

短期来看，由于国内供应严重过剩，2014年中国钢材出口量大幅增长，这将对全球钢铁贸易格局产生影响，甚至可能激化贸易摩擦。

2014年，发展中国家(中国除外)出现了 2.3%的低速增长，其中的一个特别原因是巴西和俄罗斯钢材市场的持续恶化。预计 2015年发展中经济体的增长势头仍将整体疲软。许多发展中经济体的钢材市场表现出成熟因素，这抑制了钢材需求的增长。尽管如此，我们仍然

预期印度、印尼、越南和埃及等部分新兴经济体将出现积极增长，这些国家的钢材市场仍在

不断发展。这些市场的整体钢材需求量预计将在 2015年增长 2.4%，在 2016年增长 4.0%。在 2014年，随着美国基本面的强势回归和欧盟的强力复苏，发达国家的钢材需求量增

加了 6.2%。尽管如此，我们预计 2015年发达国家的增长幅度将有所趋缓，其部分原因是高基数效应，另一个原因是美国经济增长放缓，日本和韩国钢材市场大环境较为不利。虽然欧

盟的经济复苏在地区范围内有广泛基础，却仍然受到投资活动疲软和高失业率的束缚。发达

经济体的钢材需求量将在 2015年增长 0.2%，在 2016年增长 1.8%。

Analysis of international steel demand forecast

After the 0.6% growth in 2014, the international iron and steel institute forecast global steelapparent consumption will grow by 0.5% in 2015, up to 1.544 billion tons.It is expected that global steel consumption will grow by 1.4% in 2016, up to 1.565 billion tons.Global steel demand forecast of the international steel this release more conservative, mainlyaffected by a slowdown in China. The forecast also reflects the most countries implement theimpact of the economic structure adjustment, especially after 2008, the effects of investmentgrowth is slowing. As the effects of these changes, the steel industry will be growth is slowing, theindustry will focus on improving the efficiency of operations, and the value of steel products forcustomers and society.International steel association said that while the global steel industry still faces some downsiderisks, such as: parts of Europe geopolitical instability, the volatility of international capital flows,as well as China's economic slowdown. But some positive factors are emerging and developedeconomies also more and more positive news, particularly in the euro zone's recovery powercontinuously strengthen. In developing and emerging economies, we see people's attitude are moreand more optimistic towards India, the steel consumption in Middle East and north Africa regionis increasing. Despite these positive factors cannot be completely offset the effect of China'seconomic growth, the demand growth is still expected to gradually recover after 2016.International steel association thinks that Chinese demand will continue to decline.In 2014, due to China's economic structure transformation have significant effect on the real estatemarket, China's steel demand appeared the first negative growth since 1995. This situation maynot change in the short term, China's steel demand will continue to appear 0.5% of negativegrowth in 2015 and 2016. In the medium term, there will not be a strong rebound. To stabilize theslow development of China's economy, the Chinese government has taken some measures. For theimpact of these measures, at present there are still some uncertainty. With China stepping into thenext stage of development, China's economic structural adjustment is inevitable, but need sometime.In the short term, due to a serious surplus of domestic supplies, China's steel exports in 2014 grewsharply, it will influence on the global iron and steel trade patterns, and may even intensified tradefrictions. In 2014, developing countries (except Chinese) appeared the slow growth of 2.3%,which is a special reason of Brazil and Russia's steel market continues to deteriorate, especially inthe seamless steel pipe and erw steel pipe market. Developing economies growth in 2015 isexpected to remain weak as a whole. Many developing economies of the steel market to show thematurity factor, which inhibits growth in steel demand. Nevertheless, we still expect a positivegrowth in India, Indonesia, Vietnam and Egypt and other emerging economies, the steel marketcontinues to develop in these countries. The market's overall steel demand is expected to grow by2.4% in 2015, 4.0% growth in 2016.In 2014, with the strong return of US fundamentals and the strong recovery of European Union,demand for steel in developed countries increased by 6.2%. In spite of this, we expect that thegrowth in developed countries in 2015 will be eased, part of the reason is the high base effect,another reason is a slowdown in the American economy, which is relatively bad for the Japaneseand south Korean steel market environment. Although the European economic recovery has broad

foundation in the region, it is still limited to weak investment activity and high unemployment.Steel demand in developed economies will grow by 0.2% in 2015, 1.8% growth in 2016.