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Recent Developments in
Myanmar, 2010-2014
Gen. Than Shwe Gen. Thein Sein
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(Recent Developments in
Myanmar)
2010 Elections
Formation of a newgovernment
New civil liberties
Lifting of economicsanctions
Photo: @ Soe Than WinAFP/Getty Images
Parliament
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(Recent Developments in
Myanmar)
Photograph: Andrew Harnick
Aung San SuuKyi
President Thein Sein
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(Recent Developments in
Myanmar) Departing from
isolation
Govt inviteswestern investment
West accelerates
engagement
Photo: (Saul Loeb - AP)
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton visits Aung San
Suu Kyi, Dec. 2011
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(Recent Developments in
Myanmar) Establishment
narrative
1. Authoritarian vs.Democratic, 1988
2. Isolation vs.
Engagement3. Internal change
vs. External changePresident Obama and Sec. of State Clinton atthe Shwedagon Paya, 2012
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(Recent Developments in
Myanmar) Unresolved Issues:
Communal violence
Peace Process,reconciliation
Constitutional Reform,article 59F
Communal violence in Rakhine State
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(Recent Developments in
Myanmar) (Unresolved Issues)
Lack of infrastructure
and capacity Apparent struggle
between reformers andconservatives
Continuity of militaryrole
Problem=politicalfactors
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(Recent Developments in
Myanmar) Unconventional
Narrative
1. Civil War, 1948-2011
2.Struggle overidentity and the nation
3. Socio-economic,cultural factors
Cease-fire with Karen National Union, Jan. 2012
Photo: (Soe Zeya Tun/Courtesy Reuters)9
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(Recent Developments in
Myanmar) Approach:
Community
formation inMyanmar
Contest for thestate
Struggle overvisions ofMyanmaridentity
British Burma1824-1942
(Japanese) State of Burma,
1943-1945Union of Burma,1948-1962
Socialist RepublicUnion of Burma,1962-1988
Union of Myanmar, 1989-2010
Republic of the Union ofMyanmar, 2008-current
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(Recent Developments in
Myanmar)Broad Assessment:
Communities imagine Myanmar
differently, consensus a challenge.
Different historical experiences create
different priorities
Different notions of belonging andaffiliation affect political stability.
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I. Social-Cultural Setting
A. Different
landscapes 1. River valleys
2. Highlands
3. Coastlines
4. Upstream-downstream
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Social-Cultural Setting
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(I. Social-Cultural Setting)
B. Different language-families
1. Tibeto-Burman 2. Tai (Dai)
3. Austroasiatic
4. Hundreds of sub-
dialects
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(I. Social Cultural Setting)
C. Differentcultural influences
Buddhist 89%
Christian 4%
Muslim 4%
Animist 1%
Other 2%
Nat Pwe
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(I. Social-Cultural Setting)
D. Different historicalexperiences
1. Exposed to different
cultural influences,intensities
2. Socio-economicstratification
3. Center-peripherycompetition
Mahabodhi Temple in Bagan
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(I. Social-Cultural Setting)
F. Broad Patterns, Early Kingdoms
1. Power centered on individuals and
support networks2. Social bonds were often hierarchical
3. Communities loosely connected
4. Tension between center and localautonomy
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II. Conquest: The Colonial
Community A. British Burma
1. Three Anglo-
Burmese Wars2. Burmese throneis dismantled
3. Burmese
conceptual universeunraveled
Third Anglo-Burmese War19
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(II. Conquest)
B. New Landscapes
1. Fixed boundariesestablished
2. Communities areartificiallyseparated
3. Reconfiguresocial relations
4. Economictransformation
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(II. Conquest)
C. New Notions ofAuthority 1. British Indian Civil
Service expands
2. British Indian legalsystem adopted
3. Buddhist sector
fragments 4. Colonial education
supports new(minority) elites
Secretariat, Yangon
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(II. Conquest)
E. Political Constraints
1. Political parties aredivided, personalnetworks
3. Rural communitiesisolated
3. Radical studentsseek external supportfrom China and Japan
Dobama March 23
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III. Collapse: Socio-Political
Fragmentation, 1942-1962 A. World War II
1. Japan invades, Britishauthorities retreat
2. Aung San leads BurmeseIndependence Army (BIA)
3. Pro-colonial elitesimprisoned, radicalsreleased
4. Communists beginarmed resistance
5. Defeat of Japan createspower vacuum
Members of the 30 Comrades
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(III. Collapse)
B. Independence
1. Multiple stakeholders,competing visions, &
loyalties 2. Ex-colonial officials,
elites, radical nationalists,ethnic groups, BIA
3. Anti-Fascist Peoples
Freedom League (AFPFL)provides loose unity
4. Aung San assassinated in1947, independence 1948
Aung San 25
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(III. Collapse)
C. Post-colonialCommunity, 1948-1962 1. Civilian rule
established
2. Communists andethnic groups
marginalized 4. Civil war erupts
Anti-Fascist Freedom League Government
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(III. Collapse)
D. Crisis & Instability
1. Government haslittle control
2. National identitythrough Buddhism
3. U Nu asks army totake over in 1958;
returns power tocivilian rule 1960
4. Military Coup 1962
U Nu
Ne Win 27
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IV. Struggle for the Nation
A. Revolutionary Council 1. Military fills in power
vacuum, strongest post-war institution
2. Integration throughmilitary expansion
3. Socialist ideology andmodels adopted; BurmaSocialist Program Party
4. Shift from civilian rule tohybrid military-civilianrule
General Ne Win 28
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(IV. Struggle)
B. Nation-Building
1. National culturedefined and promoted;Buddhist pastemphasized
2. Peasant experiencesfeatured prominently
in new histories
3. Minorityexperiences oftenneglected
Workers Day Poster, 1962
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(IV. Struggle)
C. Economic
1. Centrally plannedeconomic policies,
nationalized businesses 2. Agriculture and
industry sectorstargeted
3. Rural sectorreceives governmentfunding
4. Urban developmentneglected
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(IV. Struggle)
D. Political-EconomicOutcomes
1. Mid 1980s, national
economy collapses 2. Demonetized the
currency in 1985]
3. Armed insurgencies
continue separatistagenda
4. Government callsfor meetings to resolvecrisis
1988 demonstrations
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(IV. Struggle)
E. BSPP Collapse, 1988 1. University student
protests
2. Ne Win dissolves BSPPcalls for referendum
3. Political stakeholders seeopportunity
4. Aung San Suu Kyibecomes singular image ofopposition
5. State Law and OrderRestoration Council,military rule re-established
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V. Civil War & Reconstruction
A. Broader Struggle forMyanmar
1. Contest for the state at
the center and theperiphery
2. 1990s urban reformmovement; rural separatistmovements
3. Debate over direction ofthe nation
4. Debate over the natureof reconstruction/reform
Shan forces
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(V. Civil War and
Reconstruction) B. Competing Visions
1. 1990 constituent
assembly elections 2. National League for
Democracy win, led byformer generals
3. Disagreement overwhat the electionsmeant
4. Created polarizedimage of military vs.
democracy movement 34
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(V. Civil War and
Reconstruction) (B. Competing Visions)
5. Government adopts
democracy language 6. Secures key cease-fireagreements with ethnicgroups
7. Holds constitutionalconvention and referendum
8. Prepares for elections in2010, promising return tocivilian rule
Constitutional Convention
Cyclone Nargis 35
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(V. Civil War and
Reconstruction) D. Fissures
1. Domestic issues underintense internationalscrutiny
2. Internal rivalries
3. Urban and rural unrestexacerbates politicalinstability
4. International community
divided over Myanmarpolicies
National Democratic Front
2007 36
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(V. Civil War and
Reconstruction) E. Broad Patterns
1. Process of post-socialistreconstruction beginsin1990s
2. Re-integration of thestate, economic expansion
3. Ethnic groups aligningthemselves with nationalcommunity ideal
4. Transition from militaryto hybrid government
Aung San Suu Kyi joining parliament
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Myanmar in Context: A
Different Read Contemporary debate part of long-term
struggle
Communities imagine Myanmardifferently, consensus a challenge.
Expectations for the future of Myanmarbased on different priorities.
Bread-n-butter issues, rather than ideology,are a priority for the majority ofstakeholders.
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Source
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