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FEATURE ARTICLE, PAGE 5
BoC Policy: Keep Low and Carry On
Bank of Canada on Hold; Forecast Upgraded Slightly Chinese Growth Slowest in 2 Years Solid European Bond Auctions Canadian Inflation Hits the Brakes U.S. Housing Data Mostly Solid Brazil Cuts Rates 50 bps
JANUARY 20, 201
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PAGE 2 FOCUS JANUARY 20, 2012
Why suddenly so glum, Canada? While the market mood across much o
the world so far in 2012 is cautiously optimistic (or at least cautiously les
pessimistic, see the next two items), and there are rising hopes for th
U.S. economy, both consumer and business confidence look to be st
heading south in Canada. Even the Bank of Canada got into the ac
somehow managing to simultaneously upgrade its growth estimate fo2011 and 2012, while also noting ominously that the outlook has darkened in the pa
three months. Meantime, rumbling in the background is a steady stream of warning
from all and sundry about record levels of household debt and the possibility of
meaningful housing market correction. While the risks are no doubt serious, there a
a number of positives to point to as well when considering the Canadian outlook:
The better tone in the U.S. economy is probably the biggest plus. True, the Uwill grow faster than Canada this year, but that should be welcomed insofar as
reflects a pick-up in U.S. growth (our #1 export destination).
Long-term borrowing costs have dropped to record lows, which will support thhousing market.
Yet, homebuyers do not appear to be broadly over-doing it. Home sales were ua moderate 4.6% y/y in December, and average prices just 0.9% y/y.
Auto production is reviving, and an expected further rise in U.S. auto sales wsupport additional gains in 2012. Manufacturing sales jumped 2% in Novembe
and are back to 2007 levels.
The fever in Canadian inflation broke late last year, with prices for gasolinclothing and cars all moderating. At 2.3%, Canada now has one of the lowe
inflation rates in the world among major economies.
Merchandise trade is back in surplus, as strong oil exports are more thaoffsetting the steep drop in natural gas sales.
Ottawas budget deficit is narrowing faster than expected; in the first sevemonths of the fiscal year, the gap is down more than $6 billion from last year, an
looks to better the full-year estimate of $31 billion.
The TSX is up more than 10% from the lows it hit just over three months ago. The Canadian dollar is again close to par at just under 99 cents(US), a strong lev
for consumers without adding further material strain for producers.
Spring is barely two months away.Overall, we do look for a cooling in Canadian GDP growth this year to 2.0%, which
below the economys long-run average. However, a better-than-expected performanc
by the U.S. economy would soothe a lot of anxieties about the outlook for the rest of thworld.
While Europes economy buckles under the weight of fiscal austerity and
debilitating credit crisis, the U.S. economy continues to carve out a durab
recovery. Each week brings more evidence of a virtuous cycle in deman
production, jobs and credit creation. Following the subprime credit an
housing busts, the linchpin to a sustainable, healthy expansion has bee
an improvement in household finances and incomes. The former, thoug
Our Thoughts
DOUGLAS PORTER
SAL GUATIERI
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PAGE 3 FOCUS JANUARY 20, 2012
likely not complete, is evident in a 16-ppt reduction in household debt-to-income ratio
since 2007 (back to 2004 levels). The latter is evident in firmer employment numbe
(notably the 1.3 million new household survey jobs of the past five months) and in low
initial jobless claims (to near 4-year lows of 352k). With new jobs come great
confidence. Consumer sentiment, though still low, has retraced all of last summer
plunge. Improved confidence whets credit appetites. Consumer credit rose 3.2% y/y tNovember, the fastest pace since Lehman Brothers collapsed. Jobs, confidence an
credit drive spending, notably on big-ticket items. Although high foreclosure rates w
continue to undermine housing for a while, there is no disputing the improved tone
recent indicators. Existing home sales rose for the third straight month in December
near one-year highs. This cut the months supply to a near six-year trough of 6.2, puttin
the market firmly in balanced territory. A recent upturn in new mortgage application
and a 4-year high in homebuilders activity point to further strength ahead. With mo
spending comes more production. U.S. factory output jumped 0.9% in December, th
most in a year and up 4% annualized in the fourth quarter. Next weeks reports o
durable goods orders, new home sales and Q4 GDP (3.0% growth expected, the most 1 years) should provide further evidence of a firming U.S. expansion. With expecte
2.3% growth this year, the U.S. wont win any sprinting medals, but it should at least lea
the G7 economic marathon. This means U.S. stocks could outperform other wor
indexes once again in 2012.
Its been a solid start to the year, with equities climbing after a tough 201
as Euro Area debt crisis worries have eased to some extent. Europea
equity markets have performed well, with Germanys 8.8% gain throug
the first three weeks of the year among the top gainers globally. A series
successful debt auctions by France, Spain, Italy and others has sharplowered peripheral spreads versus Germany, and suggests that worrie
about sovereign funding issues may have been overstated. Even so, Italy and Spain st
have to roll over a combined 140 bln in debt through the rest of Q1. Ratings agencie
could also slash ratings once again, which would dent confidence. As such, theres litt
slack for policymakers, as markets will press for continued progress. A sharp rebound
the euro, nearing $1.30 at its best level this week, might also be a sign of easin
concerns about the region. On the other hand, there was a record net short speculativ
position in euros as of last Tuesday, and the rally could largely reflect short covering.
The European saga still has at least a few chapters left before the conclusio
European leaders meet on January 30th and markets will be looking for more signs oprogress. Moreover, all of the austerity and reform already agreed to still has to b
implementedeasier said than done. Meantime, European banks, which are receivin
massive liquidity from the ECB, remain a question mark. They still need to hit 9% cor
tier 1 capital by mid-year, as mandated by the EBA. Expect significant asset sales ove
the coming months, which have the potential to weigh on growth in Europe an
elsewhere. And, dont forget about Greece. Recent reports are encouraging, but deb
renegotiations face a hard deadline in March. Overall, one cant deny the New Year ha
started on a firm footing, but lets not get of ahead ourselves.
Our Thoughts
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GOOD NEWS BAD NEWS
CANADABoC opts to stay on the
sidelines, but calls for output
gap to close a quarter earlier
Manufacturing Sales +2.0% (Nov.)
Manufacturing New Orders +3.6% (Nov.)
Existing Home Sales +4.6% y/y (Dec.)and
averageprices slowed to +0.9% y/y
Consumer Prices unexpectedly fall 0.6% (Dec.)
Foreigners buy a net $15.0 bln of Canadian
securities (Nov.)
CANADAWholesale Trade -0.4% (Nov.)
New Motor Vehicle Sales -1.0% (Nov.)
UNITED STATESEconomic recovery holding up
in the new year
Very encouraging drop in initialclaims
Empire State Manufacturing Survey +5.3 pts to
13.48; Philly Fed Index +0.5 pts to 7.3 (Jan.)
Foreigners bought a net $58.0 bln of U.S.
securities (Nov.)
Industrial Production +0.4% (Dec.)
NAHB Housing Index +4 pts to 25 (Jan.)
Initial Claims -50,000 to 352,000 (Jan. 14 wk)Core Consumer Prices +0.1% (Dec.)
Building Permits -0.1% to 679,000 a.r. (Dec.)muchbetter than expected
Existing Home Sales +5.0% (Dec.)
U.S.
Housing Starts -4.1% to 657,000 a.r. (Dec.)
Redbook -1.4% (Jan. 14 wk)
Core Producer Prices +0.3% (Dec.)
EUROPES&P downgrades EFSF to AA+This weeks debt issues well
received despite S&P
downgrade (including France,Spain and EFSF)
IMF proposes boosting lendingresources by US$500 bln
EurozoneConsumer Prices revised down to
+2.7% y/y (Dec.)
GermanyZEW Survey +32.2 pts to -21.6 (Jan.)
GermanyProducer Prices -0.4% (Dec.)
ItalyIndustrial Orders +0.1% (Nov.)
U.K.Consumer Prices slowed to +4.2% y/y (Dec.)
U.K.Retail Sales +0.6% (Dec.)
EUROPEU.K.Rightmove House Prices -0.8% (Jan.)
U.K.Jobless Claims +1,200 (Dec.)
U.K.Nationwide Consumer Confidence -2 pts to
38 (Dec.)
JAPANNikkei closes at 2-month high
Machine Orders +14.8% (Nov.)
Corporate Goods Prices +0.1% (Dec.)
Consumer Confidence +0.8 pts to 38.9 (Dec.)
Department Store Sales +0.8% y//y (Dec.)
JAPANAll-Industry Activity Index -1.1% (Nov.)
AUSTRALIA
RBA may ease next month
Westpac Consumer Confidence +2.4% (Jan.)
AUST
RALIAEmployment -29,300 (Dec.)
New Motor Vehicle Sales -2.9% (Dec.)
CHINADecent economic data ease
fears of a hard landing
Real GDP eases to +8.9% y/y (Q4)better than
expected and up 9.2% for 2011
Industrial Production +12.8% y/y (Dec.)
Retail Sales +18.1% y/y (Dec.)
Fixed Asset Investment +23.8% y/y (2011)
CHINAForeign Direct Investment -12.7% y/y (2011)
Indications of stronger growth and a move toward price stability are good news for the economy.
Jennifer Lee, SeniorEconomist
Recap
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BoC Policy: Keep Low and Carry OnMichael Gregory, CFA, Senior Economist
The Bank of Canada kept policy rates unchanged this week, for the 11th consecutive time sinc
September 2010. The outcome was completely expected, but the announcement and subseque
Monetary Policy Report contained some interesting tidbits.
By standing pat, the BoC retained the distinction of being the only G-10 central bank not having ease
policy since last March. As recently as early November, the BoC had four friends in this regard. But th
incipient Euro Area recession caused the ECB, along with Swedens Riksbank and Norway, to flip the
policies over, cutting rates after hiking them earlier in the year. The Reserve Bank of Australia
compounding concern over Chinas slowing economic momentum nudged it off the on-hold fenc
where it had been sitting since the autumn of 2010, right beside the Bank of Canada.
Its not that Europe and China arent important policy considerations. The Bank said the outlook for th
global economy has deteriorated and uncertainty has increased since October (the last MPR).
particular, the Euro Area recession was now expected to be deeper and longer.Indeed, European topi
occupied both technical boxes in the MPR, a sign that the Banks researchers have been feverish
analyzing the myriad implications of the crisis for Canada, a crisis that is poised to claim some 0.6% o
local GDP this year. This is serious stuff, but there are offsetting considerations.
The Bank continues to assert that there is considerable monetary policy stimulus in place, helping t
mitigate these external risks. All four of the BoCs previously non-easing central bank friends sporte
policy rates above those in Canada before they cut rates. Meantime, the Banks pronouncements th
week sported major shifts in the assessment of U.S. economic risks and in concern over loc
household debt dynamics, supporting the cause for pause.
Both the Canadian and U.S. economies performed significantly better than the BoC projected during th
second half of last year (e.g., Canadian 2011 H2 growth was revised up to 2.8% from 1.4%). Althoug
both economies are expected to slow down at least a bit in the first half of this year, in the face
European and other global headwinds, prospects are necessarily less riskier given that both economie
hit these headwinds with a running start. Indeed, U.S. prospects have now moved from being a ne
downside risk for the Canadian outlook, to being a net upside risk. The Bank is concerned that recent U
consumer spending vigour could prove more persistent and fiscal austerity could prove feebl
(Stateside, the BoC is bracing for 0.8% of GDP fiscal drag in 2012 and a whopping 2.5% in 2013).
As before, Canadian household debt and housing dynamics pose both upside and downside risks t
the outlook. If anything, the Bank might have added a wee bit more weight to the upside (i.e., the risof credit-based consumer spending continuing to grow strongly), given the arrival of record-low 5
year mortgage rates. The Bank said very favourable financing conditions are expected to buttre
consumer spending and housing activity. Household expenditures are expected to remain high relative
GDP and the ratio of household debt to income is projected to rise further.Before, the Banks chatter wa
about Canadian household expenditures growing only modestly.
The juxtaposition of expected continued debt accumulation, after repeatedly warning Canadia
about the evils of their potentially profligate ways, and record-low borrowing costs was not lost o
Feature
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PAGE 6 FOCUS JANUARY 20, 2012
reporters at Governor Carneys post-MPR press conferenc
Asked whether he judged if current-low policy rates we
contributing to record-low mortgage rates (and relate
risks to economic and financial stability), the Governo
responded that the Bank controls the one-day interest rat
only, and that 5-year yields are influenced far more bother factors such as foreign capital inflows. Howeve
longer-term interest rates are also heavily influenced b
the expected path for shorter-term interest rates, whic
key off the expected path for policy rates. Mr. Carne
himself has waxed previously on the prospects for rate
remaining low for long. Few are expecting policy move
within the next year, and thats worth the first 20% of a
year maturity.
Although the BoC might be trying to sidestep greatresponsibility for the germination of the policy seeds it ha
sown, it also has little influence on resulting sectora
industrial and regional sprouts (or lack thereof). By aimin
for a national aggregate such as CPI inflation, the optim
policy path could prove less than optimal for a wide swat
of stakeholders. There is no doubt that interest rates a
too low to constrain risky household debt build up, bu
one could also argue that lower (C$-strength-sappin
capex-encouraging) interest rates are what man
Canadian exporters require. This is no different than durin
the past economic cycle when policy was deemed to
accommodative for booming Alberta, but too restrictiv
for struggling Ontario. Its essentially up to fiscal an
macroprudential policy to deal with the sectoral, industri
and regional fallout.
However, its not like the BoC is saying rates will never rise. Employing its now rote phrase, the MP
asserted that this projection includes a gradual reduction in monetary stimulus over the projectio
horizon, consistent with achieving the inflation target. In combination with the BoC tweaking i
Canadian projection, so that the economy now reaches full capacity by 2013 Q3one quarter earlie
than beforewere betting on some degree of rate hikes (no matter how modest) starting by thmiddle of next year (Chart 1). The market is not quite there yet (Chart 2), more fixated on the prospec
for potential easing in the near term and currently pricing in slightly less than even odds of a sing
quarter-point cut by October (mid-market OIS). We judge that given North Americas decent econom
momentum to start 2012 amid escalating domestic debt concerns, external headwinds are going t
have to blow much harder to elicit Bank of Canada easing. We sense the BoC will still be sitting on th
on hold fence through the early part of 2013, before jumping off into the rate-hike side where the
might find a central bank friend or two (were thinking the Scandinavians).
Feature
CHART 1
LOW FOR LONG...
* BMO Capital Markets
Canada (% : as of January 19, 2012)
forecast *
1.00%
Overnight Rate
01 03 05 07 09 11 130
1
2
3
4
5
6
CHART 2
...BUT NOT FOREVERCanada (percent)
2-Year Benchmark Bond Yield
Mar 10 Jun Sep Dec Mar 11 Jun Sep Dec0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5June 1
July 20
Sep 8
BoC Rate Hikes
BoC SignalsMore Hikes
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PAGE 7 FOCUS JANUARY 20, 2012
CANADA I II III IV I II III IV 2010 2011 2012
Real GDP (q/q % chng : a.r.) 3.5 -0.5 3.5 1.8 1.7 2.2 2.4 2.7 3.2 2.3 2.0
Consumer Price Index (y/y % chng) 2.6 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.3 2.2 2.4 2.1 1.8 2.9 2.3 Unemployment Rate (%) 7.7 7.5 7.2 7.4 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.3 8.0 7.5 7.4
Housing Starts (000s : a.r.) 177 192 205 199 186 181 181 182 191 193 182
Current Account Balance ($blns : a.r.) -41.3 -64.5 -48.5 -49.8 -52.1 -50.5 -50.5 -48.8 -50.9 -51.0 -50.5
Interest Rates
(average for the quarter : %)
Overnight Rate 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 1.00 0.60 1.00 1.00
3-month Treasury Bill 0.95 0.95 0.88 0.86 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.82 0.56 0.91 0.82
10-year Bond 3.31 3.16 2.53 2.13 2.00 2.00 2.18 2.46 3.24 2.78 2.16
Canada/U.S. Interest Rate Spreads(average for the quarter : bps)
90-day 82 90 86 84 80 80 80 80 42 86 80
10-year -15 -5 10 9 5 10 8 6 2 0 7
UNITED STATES
Real GDP (q/q % chng : a.r.) 0.4 1.3 1.8 3.0 2.0 2.4 2.8 2.9 3.0 1.7 2.3
Consumer Price Index (y/y % chng) 2.2 3.3 3.8 3.3 2.5 2.2 2.0 2.2 1.6 3.1 2.2
Unemployment Rate (%) 9.0 9.1 9.1 8.7 8.6 8.5 8.4 8.3 9.6 8.9 8.5
Housing Starts (mlns : a.r.) 0.58 0.57 0.62 0.66 0.67 0.70 0.71 0.71 0.58 0.61 0.70
Current Account Balance ($blns : a.r.) -478 -499 -441 -442 -442 -440 -440 -439 -471 -465 -440
Interest Rates
(average for the quarter : %)
Fed Funds Target Rate 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13
3-month Treasury Bill 0.13 0.05 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.02 0.14 0.05 0.02
10-year Note 3.46 3.21 2.43 2.05 1.95 1.90 2.10 2.40 3.21 2.79 2.09
EXCHANGE RATES
(average for the quarter)
US/C$ 101.4 103.4 102.1 97.8 96.7 94.3 96.2 99.0 97.1 101.2 96.6
C$/US$ 0.986 0.967 0.979 1.023 1.034 1.060 1.040 1.010 1.030 0.989 1.036
/US$ 82 82 78 77 77 76 77 79 88 80 77
US$/Euro 1.37 1.44 1.41 1.35 1.28 1.25 1.28 1.33 1.33 1.39 1.29
US$/ 1.60 1.63 1.61 1.57 1.54 1.53 1.55 1.59 1.55 1.60 1.55
Note: Blocked areas represent BMO Capital Markets forecasts
Up and down arrows indicate changes to the forecast
2011 2012 ANNUAL
Economic Forecast
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CANADA Douglas Porter, CFA, Deputy Chief EconomiAfter a pair of powerful 1% advances in each of the two prior months, look fo
Canadian retail sales to simmer down somewhat in November. Auto sales slipped 1%
gasoline prices retreated more than 2%, and consumer confidence and employmen
were weak in the month. Still, we expect a mild 0.2% rise in overall sales, as large-scaretailers reported decent activity in the month (up 3.2% y/y), in spite of all th
headwinds listed above. With consumer prices nudging up just 0.1% in the mont
this points to a small gain in the volume of retail sales (up 0.1%). With back-to-bac
0.6% increases in real sales in the two prior months, our call would put Q4 volumes o
track for an annualized increase of nearly 5%. This points to some upside risk for ou
call of less than 2% growth for both consumer spending and GDP in the quarter. Give
the robust rise in manufacturing activity but a fall in wholesale sales in November, ou
call on retail trade would point to a 0.1% rise for GDP in the month (reported Jan. 31).
UNITED STATES Sal Guatieri, Senior EconomiChairman Bernanke will boldly go where no Fed chief has gone before with th
publication of interest rate forecasts from all 17 policy makers. The forecasts, to b
unveiled at the end of the meeting, will cover the final quarter of 2012 and the end o
subsequent years. Each policymaker will also state the period in which he/she expec
rates to increase, as well as his/her outlook for the Feds balance sheet. If the mod
forecast and starting date of rate hikes suggest that rates will rise much later than th
market anticipates (late 2013 or early 2014) or much later than mid-2013 (recall, th
conditional pledge of no change at least through mid-2013), then longer-term intere
rates should decline, an effective easing in policy. A somewhat more dovish slate
incoming policymakers could lean in that direction, though recent better economic da
suggest otherwise. The Fed will also outline its long-term goals for inflation an
unemployment. The lower the latter, the greater the likelihood of an extended period o
low rates. Also look for the members to continue the current mortgage-bond
reinvestment and Operation Twist programs to maintain the size of the Feds balanc
sheet while extending its average maturity. No additional bond purchases are likely t
be announced.
A surge in Boeing aircraft sales likely lifted durable goods orders 2.5% in Decembe
Capital goods orders (excluding defense and aircraft) should also rise, albeit mor
modestly and for the first time in three months, as companies likely ramped uequipment orders ahead of the now expired full-expensing allowance. Althoug
capex probably moderated from its double-digit pace of the past two years, it shou
remain a key pillar of the expansion in 2012.
Retail SalesTuesday, 8:30 am
Ex. AutosNov. (e) +0.2% +0.3%
Consensus +0.2% +0.1%Oct. +1.0% +0.7%
Key for Next Week
FOMC AnnouncementWednesday, 12:30 pm
Quarterly FOMC PressBriefingWednesday, 2:15 pm
Durable Goods OrdersThursday, 8:30 am
Ex. TransportDec. (e) +2.5% +0.6%Consensus +2.0% +0.9%
Nov. +3.7% +0.3%
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PAGE 9 FOCUS JANUARY 20, 2012
Buyers are starting to nibble again at new homes now that the overhang in the resa
market is easing. Supported by unusually warm weather, sales likely rose 1.0% t
318,000 annualized in December, the fourth straight gain and the highest level in
year, though still a fraction of long-term norms. The housing market is showin
concrete signs of stabilizing, supported by improved job growth and confidence, an
the best affordability on record.
The U.S. economy likely expanded at the fastest pace in 1 years in Q4, with all secto
(except government) providing support. We look for growth of 3.0% annualized, twic
as fast as the economy grew in the past year, with decent support from exports an
construction (including housing), and a moderate assist from consumers (2.5%). Cape
no doubt slowed from the double-digit rate of the previous two years, but like
remained healthy ahead of the now-expired full-expensing allowance. While growt
will likely downshift to 2.0% in Q1, as the personal savings rate stops falling, it shou
strengthen again through the year.
New Home SalesThursday, 10:00 am
Dec. (e) 318,000 a.r. (+1.0%)Consensus 320,000 a.r. (+1.6%)
Nov. 315,000 a.r. (+1.6%)
Real GDPFriday, 8:30 am
GDP DeflatorQ4 A (e) +3.0% a.r. +0.7% a.r.
Consensus +3.0% a.r. +2.0% a.r.Q3 +1.8% a.r. +2.6% a.r.
Key for Next Week
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JAN 20 * JAN 13 WEEK AGO 4 WEEKS AGO DEC. 31/11
Call Money 1.00 1.00 0 0 0Prime Rate 3.00 3.00 0 0 0
Fed Funds (effective) 0.25 0.25 0 0 0Prime Rate 3.25 3.25 0 0 0
Canada 0.83 0.78 5 1 1United States 0.04 0.02 2 5 3Japan 0.20 0.10 10 10 10Eurozone 1.18 1.23 -5 -22 -17United Kingdom 1.09 1.09 0 1 1Australia 4.59 4.60 -1 -1 -1
Canada 1.04 0.95 9 12 9
United States 0.24 0.22 2 -4 0
Canada 2.05 1.92 12 4 11United States 2.02 1.86 15 -1 14Japan 0.98 0.94 4 1 0Germany 1.93 1.76 17 -2 11United Kingdom 2.13 1.97 16 9 15Australia 3.82 3.84 -2 9 16
Risk IndicatorsVIX 19.7 20.9 -1.2 pts -1.1 pts -3.7 pts
TED Spread 52 55 -3 -6 -5Inv. Grade CDS Spread ** 108 116 -8 -14 -12High Yield CDS Spread ** 602 655 -53 -93 -78
US/C$ 98.66 97.73 0.9 0.7 0.8C$/US$ 1.014 1.023 /US$ 77.12 76.97 0.2 -1.2 0.3US$/Euro 1.2936 1.2680 2.0 -0.8 -0.2US$/ 1.553 1.532 1.4 -0.4 -0.1US/A$ 104.77 103.22 1.5 3.2 2.6
CommoditiesCRB Futures Index 310.33 307.70 0.9 1.4 1.6Oil (generic contract) 98.36 98.70 -0.3 -1.3 -0.5Natural Gas (generic contract) 2.36 2.67 -11.7 -24.3 -21.1Gold (spot price) 1659.23 1639.00 1.2 3.3 6.1
S&P/TSX Composite 12387 12231 1.3 3.9 3.6S&P 500 1312 1289 1.8 3.7 4.3Nasdaq 2785 2711 2.8 6.4 6.9Dow Jones Industrial 12680 12422 2.1 3.1 3.8Nikkei 8766 8500 3.1 4.4 3.7Frankfurt DAX 6401 6143 4.2 8.9 8.5London FT100 5728 5637 1.6 3.9 2.8France CAC40 3321 3196 3.9 7.1 5.1S&P ASX 200 4240 4196 1.0 2.4 4.5
* as of 10:30 am ** One day delay
Equities
CHANGE FROM: (BASIS POINTS)
(% CHANGE)
Canadian Money Market
U.S. Money Market
3-Month Rates
Bond Markets
10-year Bond
2-year Bond
Currencies
Financial Markets Update
8/3/2019 BMO Focus - 01-20-2012
11/13
MONDAYJANUARY 23 TUESDAYJANUARY 24 WEDNESDAYJANUARY 25 THURSDAYJANUAR
JAPAN Merchandise Trade Balance
Dec. 11 (e) -155 blnDec. 10 +726 bln
Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting (January 23-24)
EUROZONE E U R O Z O N E
Consumer Confidence Jan. A (e) -21.4Dec. -21.1
Euro Area Finance Ministers Meet
Merkel meets Belgiums
Di Rupo in Berlin
Germany & France sell Tbills
E U R O Z O N E
Manufacturing PMI Jan. A (e) 47.2Dec. 46.9
Services PMI Jan. A (e) 49.0Dec. 48.8
Industrial New OrdersNov. (e) -2.2% -2.7% y/yOct. +1.8% +1.6% y/y
EU Finance Ministers Meet
Netherlands sells Bonds
Spain sells Tbills
G E R M A N Y
IFO Survey Jan. (e) 107.5Dec. 107.2
I T A L Y
Retail SalesNov. (e) -0.2% -1.4% y/yOct. +0.1% -1.5% y/y
Germany sells Bonds
G E R M A N Y
GfK Consumer ConfidenceFeb. (e) 5.6Jan. 5.6
Italy sells Bonds
Merkel meets Spains Rajo
U.K.
Real GDPQ4 A (e) -0.1% +0.8% y/yQ3 +0.6% +0.5% y/y
Minutes from the January 11-12
BoE Monetary Policy Meeting
OTHER A U S T R A L I A
Producer Price IndexQ4 (e) +0.4% +3.0% y/yQ3 +0.6% +2.7% y/y
I N D I A
Reserve Bank of India
Monetary Policy Meeting
A U S T R A L I A
Consumer Price IndexQ4 (e) +0.2% +3.3% y/yQ3 +0.6% +3.5% y/y
Chinese Lunar New Year (Markets closed all week)
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