3/ 10/2008 TP.HCM
CN H DCH V
Thi im tt xy dng ti TpH Ch Minh?
Hp bo
Trnh by bi ng Marc Townsend
Gim c iu Hnh- CBRE Vit Nam
CB Richard Ellis | Page 2
Th trng
107 ta nh vn phng ang xy dng
70% l hng C
Gi ang c xu hng gim
59 ta nh cn h dch v hin hu
Ch vi d n ang xy dng
Gi ang c xu hng tng 5%- 10% mi nm
CB Richard Ellis | Page 3
Cn h dch v >< Cn h cho thu
Thuc s hu ca c nhn hay cng ty cn hti cc chung c, c mua v cho thu li.
Cho thu bi ch nh/ cng ty hay qua mi gii
Qun l bi ban qun l ca ta nh
a phn l khng c dch v km theo ( dch vdn phng c sp xp ring)
Cha trang b ni tht hay c trang b 1 phnty vo cc tiu chun c nhn
Thi gian thu: t nht 1 nm
t cc t 2-3 thng v thanh ton trc mithng hay theo qu
Ha n thanh ton hng thng nhiu loi (Tinthu, tng tin ch, ch u xe, ph qun l )
Thuc s hu ca ch u t/ nh u t ttc cc cn h c xy dng cho thu
Cho thu bi ch u t
Qun l bi ch u t c th bi nh qunl Bt ng Sn do ch s hu ch nh
Cung cp y cc dch v bi Qun l tanh - bao gm dch v dn phng, thay khntm
Ni tht y theo tiu chun ca ta nh ( c, trang thit b, chn da v lmbp)
Thi gian thu: linh ng ( t 1-24 thng)
thch hp cho ngi cha c k hoch chc chn
t cc t 1-2thng v tr tin thu trc mithng
Chi tr r rng theo ha n hng thng (Tin thubao gm tin thu cn h v cc dch v khc)
Cn h cho thu
The Manor, Avalon, Cantavil, Thao DienRiverview, Panorama, Sky Garden
Cn h dch vSedona Suites, Norfolk Mansion, Sky Garden,
Sherwood Residence, Somerset, Diamond Plaza
CB Richard Ellis | Page 4
Nu mun c ha n, tin thu s cao hn ( thm 19.2% hay 10% trn gi thu v dch v yucu) v khng hon c cho ha n trc tipnu ch nh l c nhn
T cn h 1 phng (studio) n cn h 4 phngng
Bo v 24/7
Dch v km theo: tin ch ti ta nh (a dng)
Dch v khng km theo: git i, dn phng, uxe, in, nc, tin in thoi, Internet, ph qunl, cc tin ch khc
Kh kim tra cht lng trc
Xut ha n c thu hng thng
T cn h dng studio ( nh phng khch sn) n cn h 4 phng ng
Bo v 24/7
Dch v km theo: qun l, nc, dn phng, nh mc in bao gm(ty theo), hu ht cs dng cc tin ch, gi ni ht (ty theo), ADSL (a phn)
Dch v khng km theo: git i, u xe
c kim tra cht lng trc
Cn h cho thu
The Manor, Avalon, Cantavil, Thao DienRiverview, Panorama, Sky Garden
Cn h dch vSedona Suites, Norfolk Mansion, Sky Garden,
Sherwood Residence, Somerset, Diamond Plaza
Cn h dch v >< Cn h cho thu
CB Richard Ellis | Page 5
Cung v cu- cn h dch v
(Ngun: CB Richard Ellis)
NGUN CUNG TCH LY QUA TNG NM CA TH TRNG CN H DCH V TP.HCM (Q3/2008)
428 62
4 119
0
1384 1524
1564 18
10
1928 21
26 2339
2419 2
794
2844
2844
196
566
194140
40246
118198
21380
375
50 015
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08
S cn h
Ngun cung hin ti Ngun cung mi
CB Richard Ellis | Page 6
Sherwood Residence-Q.3
H Ch Minh l th trng nh cho thu chnhTh trng Vit Nam vn m vi s lng cc cng ty a quc gia ngy cng nhiu (WTO, FDI,
chnh sch v lut u t u i) Th trng th trng nh cho thu dnh cho ngi nc ngoi lu tr ngn n trung hnS THIU HT NGUN CUNG tm thi c lp y bi cc cn h bn c mua v cho
thuKhch thng thu cc cn h trong ta nh xy dng bi ch u t cng quc tchNgun u t mi n t cc cng ty bt ng sn quc t vi ngun vn mnh, c k hoch
pht trin lu di, c kin nhnCc d n cn h dch v bt u xut hin nhng khu vc vi h thng ung x c ci
thin n nhng khu cng nghip ngoi nh Green Hills cng vin phn mm Quang Trung vPh M Hng
S lc th trng cn h dch v ti TP HCM
Sedona Suites - Q.1 Nguyen Du Park Villas-Q.1
CB Richard Ellis | Page 7
SUPPLY AND OCCUPANCY RATE OF GRADE A , B, C SERVICED APARTMENTS IN HCMC (Q3/08)
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
Grade A Grade B Grade C
Number of units
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
Supply Occupancy rate
55%
35%
$500-$2,000
$2,100-$4,000
Trn
$4,000
10 %
Ngn sch thu nh ca khch nc ngoi
S lc th trng cn h dch v ti TP HCMNgun cung v t l cho thu ca nhng cn h dch v hng A,B,C ti TH.HCM
(Q3/2008)
CB Richard Ellis | Page 8
Thng hiu quc t
trong nc
Somerset Chancellor Court , NTMK D.1The Ascott Group- CapitaLand
Trung Thuy Co.Ltd.
The Lancaster- Le Thanh Ton, D.1
Windsor Group
Sherwood Residence- Pasteur, D.3
Ch u t mi:InterconIHG
Ch u t chnh- Cn h dch v
Sedona Hotels Intl- thuc tpon qun l khch sn tiSing Chi nhnh ca Keppel LandSedona Suites, Le Loi, Q.1
Tp on u t Norfolk Cng tyqun l quc tNorfolk Mansion, Ly Tu Trong, Q.1
CB Richard Ellis | Page 9
C bn: an ninh, tin ch sinh hot, truyn hnh cp, phng tmtin nghi, in d phng
Mc trung bnh: an ninh 24/24, vn, qun l chuyn nghip
Tin ch v dch v chung
Dn phngGit iGarageH biSauna / phng xng hiJacuzzi
GymNh hng/ BarSn chi tr emMassage / Beauty Salon / SpaBusiness CenterSn Tennis
Yu cu v tin ch cn h dch v
CB Richard Ellis | Page 10
Yu t to ngun cu
u t trc tip nc ngoi trong 9 thng u nm: 57,7 t USD, hn gp inm va ri
Th trng pht trin nhanh th 2 Chu Tng trng GDP mnh ( 8.5% nm 2007 v d on 6.5%-7% nm 2008) n nh chnh tr
S CC D N U T TRC TIP NC NGOI (FDI) TP.HCM(2000 - Q3/08)
0
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
3.500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08_F
S d n
CB Richard Ellis | Page 11
C 60,000 ngi nc ngoi ng k sng v lm vic ti HCM ( tnh n thng 6/2008)
85% khch thu cn h lm vic cho cc cng ty a quc gia v c quan ngoi giao t khu vcchu , chu u v Hoa K
Khch thu ch yu l ngi i Loan, Hn Quc, Malaysia, Nht, Singapore, M
T thng k nhu cu thu ca khch CBRE 1 nm qua:
80% khch thu l ngi c thn v 20% c gia nh
63% khch thu mun sng ti khu vc trung tm, 18% Q.2, 10% Q.7 v 9% l nhngkhu vc khc (Tn Bnh, Bnh Thnh, Ph Nhun )
Thi hn thu t 3 thng n 1 nm
Ngun: CBRE
S lc khch thu cn h dch v
CB Richard Ellis | Page 12
V sao khch thu nc ngoi thch cn h dch v hn
A IM : 15 pht li xe n trung tm thnh ph hay ti cc vng ven nhng pht trin v h tng
vi cc tin ch nh trng quc t, bars, nh hng, vn phng
THI HN THU LINH HOT
THANH TON R RNG
DCH V CHUYN NGHIP V AN NINH
TIN NGHI VI NHIU TIN CH PHONG PH
B TR CN H KIU NC NGOI: Bp m ginh cho ngi Phng Ty v bp ng ginh
cho ngi Chu ; c bit ngi Trung Quc rt quan trng hng phng.
THIT K, TRANG B, NI THT C PHONG CCH: phong cch Ty u cho ngi Phng Ty v
phong cch Chu cho ngi Chu .
CC DCH V GIA TNG GI TR : xe a rc, th vin, rp chiu phim mini, chng trnh
khuyn mi
CNG NGH TIN TIN
TH TC RA V VO NHANH CHNG
TH HIN BN THN
CB Richard Ellis | Page 13
S thch ca khch thu
Trang b ni tht y i vi cn h dch v v trang bni tht mt phn cho cn h cho thu
Khng gian m ra tt c phngCa trt rng ngn cch phng khch v phng ng.
Khch Ty thch 1 phng rng hn 2 phng nh
Cch b tr phng theo chc nng cung cp khng gianngh ngi, lm vic v thm ch nu n
Gng trang im nn cng chiu cao vi Khch Ty
Chiu su ca bn tm, v tr cc thit b kt ni tc cao
V tr ca nhng thit b truyn tn hiu bng thng rng
CB Richard Ellis | Page 14
Thit k ni tht
Thanh nh
Sang trng
Hin i
CB Richard Ellis | Page 15
Cung v cu- cn h dch v>< vn phng
(Ngun: CB Richard Ellis)
TNG CUNG V T L CHO THU CA CC CN H DCH V TI TP.HCM (Q3/08)
-
500
1.000
1.500
2.000
2.500
3.000
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08
S cn h
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Tng cung T l cho thu
Cung hin ti cn h: Kg. 2,859 cn
Kg. 300,000m2
Cung vn phng: 810.000m2
CB Richard Ellis | Page 16
V tr ta nh cn h dch v
23 ta nh cn h dch v ti q.1
CB Richard Ellis | Page 17
V tr ta nh vn phng
76 ta nh vn phng ti q.1
CB Richard Ellis | Page 18
Gi thu cn h dch vGi thu tiu biu cho cn h dch v (bao gm 10% VAT v 5% ph dch v
Vo qu 3/2008, gi thu trung bnh l 29.61usd/m2, tng 3% so vi qu 2 v n 10% so vi cui nm 2007. Mt s cn h dch v thng hiu quc t nh Sedona Suites, Somerset tng gi thu ln n 12% so vi qu 2 v n40% so vi cui nm 2007. D tnh gi thu trung bnh s tng ln 45USD/m2 trong vng 3 nm ti. Gi thu v t l thucn h ca nhng thng hiu quc t theo d on s n nh hn v gi thu cng nh t l cho thu.
(Ngun: CB Richard Ellis)
Din tch cng nh, gi thu tnh theo m2 cng cao - li nhun cao
Studio 1 phng ng 2 phng ng 3 phng ng 4 phng ng 5 phng ng
Hng A - 1,900-3,900 2,400-7,100 3,800-8,800 4,500-8,000 -
Hng B 650-1,900 1,800-3,500 1,300-4,600 1,600-7,500 2,500-6,500 5,500-5,700
Hng C 700-1,800 600-2,600 950-4,200 1,400-4,800 1,800-4,200 -
HngUSD/cn h/thng
Studio 1 phng ng 2 phng ng 3 phng ng 4 phng ng 5 phng ngHng A - 23-63 26-47 27-60 22-32 -
Hng B 20-42 28-48 12-43 13-42 12-35 18-25
Hng C 15-55 12-45 10-33 12-29 18-20 -
HngUSD/m2/thng
CB Richard Ellis | Page 19
Gi thu cn h dch vGI THU CC CN H HNG A TP.HCM (Q3/08)
54,75
40
33 30,5033
30
44
32,5037,22
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
Sed
ona
Sui
te
Nor
folk
Man
sion
Indo
chin
e
Par
k To
wer
Dia
mon
d
Pla
za
Gar
den
Vie
w C
ourt
Ngu
yen
Du
Par
k Vill
as
The
Lanc
aste
r
She
rwoo
d
Gi
trun
g
bnh
USD/m2/thng
GI THU CC CN H HNG B TP.HCM (Q3/08)
29,72
2325,50
15
39
33
15,75
21
26
38
3334,50
45
30,38
37
0
10
20
30
40
50
Land
mar
k
River
side
Som
erse
t Cou
rt
Som
erse
t HCM
C
Sai
gon
Sky
Gar
den
Sai
gon
Cou
rt
Par
klan
d
Sai
gon
Dom
aine
Wat
er F
ront
HBT
Cou
rt
Sai
gon
Vie
w
Gre
en H
ills
Indo
chin
a Par
k To
wer
Tan
Da
Cou
rt
Gi
trun
g b
nh
USD/m2/thng
CB Richard Ellis | Page 20
Gi thu cn h dch v
Gi thu gia hn: cn h loi A, B v C tng t 5%-10%
GI THU MT VI CN H HNG C TP.HCM (Q3/08)
37
21
14,75
2326,50
13,25 15
23,50
35
28,65
21,90
0
10
20
30
40
City
view
Paci
ficG
arde
n
Sou
ther
nC
ross
Vale
ntin
aC
ourt
2K H
o Xu
anH
uong
Sun
rise
Gol
den
Glo
be May
PN
T C
ourt
Gre
en V
iew
II
Gi
trun
gb
nh
USD/m2/thng
CB Richard Ellis | Page 21
Tng trng gi thu trung bnh
$75.7
$35.8
$28.7
CH S GI THU TRUNG BNH CA CN H DCH V ( Hng A&B)
$25
$26
$27
$28
$29
$30
Q4/06 Q1/07 Q2/07 Q3/07 Q4/07 Q1/08 Q2/08 Q3/08
US$/sm/month
Gm thu v ph dch v
Khng bao gm thu v ph dch
v
Gi cho thu ta nh vn phng mi xy dng
CB Richard Ellis | Page 22
TA NH VN PHNG HNG ATA LC TI QUN TRUNG TMCHI PH XY DNG 600USD 700USD/M2Khng tn chi ph thit k ni thtDin tch sn: 1.000m2/ snT L THU khng c nhGI THU: 65-70USD/M2CHI PH HOT NG: 30%DIN TCH CHO THU C : 80% MT XY DNG: 70%THI GIAN HON THNH: 18-24 Thng
Hon vn u t
GI NH (Tr chi ph t)
CN H DCH V HNG ATA LC TI QUN TRUNG TMCHI PH XY DNG 800USD/M2TRANG TR NI THT 20,000USD/M2100 CN H - 120M2/CNT L THU L 80% TRONG NM U TINT L THU L 100% TRONG NM TH 2GI THU: 45USD/M2CHI PH HOT NG: 50%DIN TCH CHO THU C : 80%MT XY DNG: 45%THI GIAN HON THNH: 24 Thng
CB Richard Ellis | Page 23
Hon vn u t
THI GIAN HON VN
-2,000,000 - 2,000,000 4,000,000 6,000,000 8,000,000 10,000,000 12,000,000 14,000,000
YR 1
YR 3
YR 5
YR 7
Revenue Cost
HON VN SAU 7 NM A VO KINH DOANHT SUT LI NHUN U T CAO
CB Richard Ellis | Page 24
Ngun cung 2008-2013 TPHCMFUTURE GRADE A AND B SERVICED RESIDENCES IN HCMC
(2008 - 2013)
59
260
139
100
420
120
284
100
624
288
1000
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 1000
Sailing Tower (2008)
Kumho Plaza (2010)
Times Square (2010)
Fraser Place (2010)
Savico Tan Binh (2010)
Savico Ho Tung Mau (2010)
Crescent (2010)
Vista (2011)
Royal Centre (2012)
VFC (2012)
Him Lam-TSN (2012)
Units
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2008F 2009F 2010F
Grade A Grade B Grade C
Ngun cung vn phng trong tng lai
2008F: 315,164m2
2009F:266,289m2
2010F: 332,309m2
Tng cng: 914.000m2 trong 3 nm
Ngun cung cn h dch v
2008: 59 cn
2010: 1,323 cn
2011: 100 cn
2012: 1,912 cn
Tng cng: 3.394 cn h trong 5 nm
Khong 340.000m2
Cung cn h loi A v B ti TPHCM
giai on (2008 -2013)
CB Richard Ellis | Page 25
D bo th trng cn h dch v
(Ngun: CB Richard Ellis)
Gi thu cn h dch v ca nhng thng hiu quc t c xu hng tip tc tng do ngun cung tNgi nc ngoi vi ngn sch cao (t 4.000USD tr ln) lun c nhu cu tm kim nhng cao h cht
lng tt ti nhng khu vc an ninhTrin vng trung v di hn (t nay n nm 2012): d kin gi thu s tng khi nn kinh t th gii cng
nh Vit Nam hi phc sau s xung dc tm thi
RENTAL TREND OF SERVICED APARTMENTS IN HCMC(1997-2007)
-
400
800
1,200
1,600
2,000
2,400
2,800
3,200
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
US$/sm/month
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
Unit
Total Supply Rents
Xu hng gi thu cn h dch v TPHCM(1997 -2007)
Tng cung Gi thu
CB Richard Ellis | Page 26
Q.2 Cn h cho thu T l thu v gi thu trung bnh
13 cn h hon thnh vi tng s khong 753 cn h cho thu vo nm2008
Riverview Cantavil
An Thnh
Cn h cho thu Q.2
64% 57%48% 44%
15 1618 18
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%T l
thu
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Gi
th
u
(U
SD
)
T l cho thu 36% 43% 52% 56%
T l t rng 64% 57% 48% 44%
Gi thu 15 16 18 18
Q4/07 Q1 Q2 Q3
CB Richard Ellis | Page 27
19 cao c hon thnh vi khong 3000 cn h cho thu vo nm2008
Grandview
Parkview
Sky Garden
Q.7 Cn h cho thu T l thu v gi thu trung bnh
Cn h cho thu Q.7
60% 55% 50% 45%
1314.514 13.5
0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%
100%
T l
cho
th
u
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Gi
th
u
(U
SD
)
T lcho thu 40% 45% 50% 55%
T l trng 60% 55% 50% 45%
Gi thu 14 14.5 13 13.5
Q4 2007 Q1 Q2 Q3
CB Richard Ellis | Page 28
C hi
Ch u T
Trong nc: Hp tc vi nhng thng hiu quc t khuch trng thnghiu v thu c li nhun cao hn t vic s hu v qun l tt
Ngoi nc: Hp tc vi cc i tc trong nc c th tm c nhng mtbng tt nht
Nh u t
T chc: thu di hn cc ta cao c v cho thu li vi mc gi cao hn bngcch nng cp li ta nh(ni tht, trang tr, thng hiu, M&E)
C nhn:Mua- k gi-cho thu vi t sut li nhun m bo t pha ch u t
CB Richard Ellis | Page 29
Tng kty l thi im thch hp xy dng cn h dch v
Cho thu d dng - nhu cu cao
Tng gi thu khi th trng tt v gi gi thu khi th trng chm
Thiu ngun cung nhng cn h dch v cht lng tt
Gi thu vn phng ang gim
Ngun cung vn phng cho thu ang c s cnh tranh v ngun cung ca cn h cho thu ang giatng
Kh nng thu hi vn n nh trong thi gian di hn u t vn phng
Chnh lch gi cao khi bn li - nh u t thch mua loi bt ng sn ny
CB Richard Ellis | Page 30
Trn 300 th trng ti hn 50 quc gia
Worldwide Office Locations
49
33
XIN CM N