Covering Your Local Economy: When Will Jobs Come Back?
In 2013 …
Marilyn Geewax NPR Senior Business Editor
[email protected] @geewaxnpr
What We Will Explore Today
• Covering the Local Labor Market is Job #1 • What Does President Obama Want? • What Does the GOP-led House Want? • What Do Business Groups Want? • What Does Labor Want? • How Can You Find the Local Angles?
More Than Five Years Of A Tough Labor Market
Searching for Work For Months – The Key Problem
No Surprise That Jobs Disappeared as GDP Plunged
Bureau of Economic Analysis data
In Case You Don’t Remember, IT WAS BAD!!
• Back in January 2009, the economy lost 779,000 jobs.
• For all of 2009, employers eliminated about 4.7 million jobs. • In absolute numbers, that was the single worst year in U.S. history for job losses. • Unemployment hit 10% by October.
People Started Calling It A “Mancession” Because Losses Hit Men
Harder Than Women
• Construction • Manufacturing • Financial Services
.
Photo by flickr user Wayne National Forest
The Jobs That Are Coming Back Tend To Be Lower-Paying
• Retail • Food Services • Health Aides
.
Photo by flickr user Salt Lake Chamber
Jobless Rate – The Key Number • 7.4 percent today, which is lousy, but
better than in October 2009.
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000
Around 11.5 Million Still Searching For Jobs
Nearly 5 million are Long-Term Unemployed
3.8 Million Job Openings – Mostly For Skilled Workers
So How Do We Get Jobs Growing Again?
There Are Different Approaches
• What Obama Would Do • What House
Republicans Would Do • What Labor Unions
Would Do • What Businesses
Would Do Photo by flickr user jessie owen
What Does President Obama Want?
• More Jobs • Deficit Reduction • Corporate-Tax Reform • Immigration Reform • More Green Energy • Transportation-Infrastructure
Upgrades
http://www.whitehouse.gov/economy Photo by flickr user Argonne
National Laboratory
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009
What Do House Republicans Want? • Lower Corporate
Taxes • Cut Federal
Spending • Expand Energy
Extraction and Refining
• Reform Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac
http://www.speaker.gov/initiatives Photo by flickr user westchesterbuzz
What Does Labor Want? • More Spending for
Transportation, Schools and Energy Infrastructure
• Trade-Policy Reforms • More Federal Aid to
State and Local Governments to Prevent Layoffs
• Wall Street Reforms • Minimum-Wage Hike
http://www.aflcio.org/Issues Photo by flickr user Ray Cunningham
What Does Business Want? • Corporate-Tax
Reform • More Spending for
Roads, Bridges, Ports and Airports
• Immigration Reform • Better Schools and
Universities • Tort Reform
Photo by Marketing Research Association http://tinyurl.com/b9ka87z
Some Economists Think 2014 Could Bring Much Better Growth
No Matter What Congress Does
Three reasons: 1. Energy
Expansion 2. Agriculture
Boom 3. Construction
Resumption Photo by Iowa Farm Bureau
Booming Oil Industry Struggling to Fill Job Openings
How Can You Tell If Your Area Is Doing Better?
• Jobs, Jobs, Jobs (BLS.gov) • Home Prices (S&P/Case-Shiller Index) • Home Foreclosures (RealtyTrac) • Local Bankers (Is Lending Improving?) • Local Car Dealers (What Are People
Buying? Trucks for Work??)
http://www.bls.gov/lau
State Jobless Numbers
America Will Recover When Jobs Come Back
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