DemonstrationofTsunamiandStormSurgeModelingYu-LinTsai1,Tso-RenWu1,SimonC. Lin2,EricYen2
1GraduateInstituteofHydrologicalandOceanicSciences,NCU,Taiwan2AcademiaSinica GridComputing,ASGC,Taiwan
Tsunami Science Laboratory水文與海洋科學研究所
DisasterMitigationWorkshopAPAN44 atDalian,China
TsunamiDisaster
http://www.engineering.com/DesignerEdge/DesignerEdgeArticles/ArticleID/9563/Can-Acoustic-Waves-Act-as-Tsunami-Detectors.aspx
http://www.newstatesman.com/culture/books/2017/08/ghosts-tsunami-what-disaster-japan-left-behind
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COMCOTTsunamiModelCOrnell Multi-gridCoupledTsunamiModel
𝜕𝜂𝜕𝑡 +
1𝑅𝑐𝑜𝑠𝜑
𝜕𝑃𝜕𝜓 +
𝜕𝑄𝜕𝜑 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝜑 . 𝑄 = 0
𝜕𝑃𝜕𝑡 +
1𝑅𝑐𝑜𝑠𝜑
𝜕𝜕𝜓
𝑃1
𝐻 +1𝑅𝜕𝜕𝜑
𝑃𝑄𝐻 +
𝑔𝐻𝑅𝑐𝑜𝑠𝜑
𝜕𝜂𝜕𝜓 − 𝑓 . 𝑄 + 𝐹7
8 = 0
𝜕Q𝜕t +
1𝑅𝑐𝑜𝑠𝜑
𝜕𝜕𝜓
𝑃𝑄𝐻 +
1𝑅𝜕𝜕𝜑
𝑄1
𝐻 +𝑔𝐻𝑅𝜕𝜂𝜕𝜑 + 𝑓 . 𝑃 + 𝐹;
8 = 0
• Solve nonlinear shallow water equations on both spherical and Cartesian coordinates.• Explicit leapfrog Finite Difference Method for stable and high speed calculation.• Multi/Nested-grid system for multiple shallow water wave scales.• Moving Boundary Scheme for inundation.• High-speed efficiency of OpenMp parallel computation.
Solvenonlinearshallowwaterequationdirectly
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12.Title:AnalyticalandnumericalsimulationoftsunamimitigationbymangrovesinPenang,MalaysiaAuthor(s):Teh SuYean;Koh HockLye;LiuPhilipLi-Fan;etal.Source:JOURNALOFASIANEARTHSCIENCESVolume:36Issue:1Pages:38-46DOI:10.1016/j.jseaes.2008.09.007Published:SEP42009
13.Title:SimulationofAndaman2004tsunamiforassessingimpactonMalaysiaAuthor(s):Koh HockLye;Teh SuYean;LiuPhilipLi-Fan;etal.Source:JOURNALOFASIANEARTHSCIENCESVolume:36Issue:1Pages:74-83DOI:10.1016/j.jseaes.2008.09.008Published:SEP42009
14.Title:SPECIALISSUETsunamisinAsiaPrefaceAuthor(s):LiuPhilipL.-F.;HuangBor-ShouhSource:JOURNALOFASIANEARTHSCIENCESVolume:36Issue:1Pages:1-1DOI:10.1016/j.jseaes.2009.05.001Published:SEP42009
15.Title:INDIANOCEANTSUNAMION26DECEMBER2004:NUMERICALMODELINGOFINUNDATIONINTHREECITIESONTHESOUTHCOASTOFSRILANKAAuthor(s):Wijetunge J.J.;WangXiaoming;LiuPhilipL.-F.Source:JOURNALOFEARTHQUAKEANDTSUNAMIVolume:2Issue:2Pages:133-155Published:JUN2008
16.Title:TSUNAMISOURCEREGIONPARAMETERIDENTIFICATIONANDTSUNAMIFORECASTINGAuthor(s):LiuPhilipL.-F.;WangXiaomingSource:JOURNALOFEARTHQUAKEANDTSUNAMIVolume:2Issue:2Pages:87-106Published:JUN2008
17.Title:BottomfrictionanditseffectsonperiodiclongwavepropagationAuthor(s):Orfila A.;Simarro G.;LiuP.L.F.Source:COASTALENGINEERINGVolume:54Issue:11Pages:856-864DOI:10.1016/j.coastalene.2007.05.013Published:NOV2007
COMCOThasbeenusedonmanyscientificpapersAtleast26SCIpaperswerepublishedduring2001to2011
(IncludingScience)1.Title:LongwavesthroughemergentcoastalvegetationAuthor(s):MeiChiangC.;ChanI-Chi;LiuPhilipL.-F.;etal.Source:JOURNALOFFLUIDMECHANICSVolume:687Pages:461-491DOI:10.1017/jfm.2011.373Published:NOV2011
2.Title:Insightsonthe2009SouthPacifictsunamiinSamoaandTongafromfieldsurveysandnumericalsimulationsAuthor(s):FritzHermannM.;Borrero JoseC.;Synolakis CostasE.;etal.Source:EARTH-SCIENCEREVIEWSVolume:107Issue:1-2SpecialIssue:SIPages:66-75DOI:10.1016/j.earscirev.2011.03.004Published:JUL2011
3.Title:SolidlandslidegeneratedwavesAuthor(s):WangYang;LiuPhilipL.-F.;MeiChiangC.Source:JOURNALOFFLUIDMECHANICSVolume:675Pages:529-539DOI:10.1017/S0022112011000681Published:MAY2011
4.Title:AnexplicitfinitedifferencemodelforsimulatingweaklynonlinearandweaklydispersivewavesoverslowlyvaryingwaterdepthAuthor(s):WangXiaoming;LiuPhilipL-FSource:COASTALENGINEERINGVolume:58Issue:2Pages:173-183DOI:10.1016/j.coastaleng.2010.09.008Published:FEB2011
5.Title:FieldSurveyoftheSamoaTsunamiof29September2009Author(s):Okal EmileA.;FritzHermannM.;Synolakis CostasE.;etal.Source:SEISMOLOGICALRESEARCHLETTERSVolume:81Issue:4Pages:577-591DOI:10.1785/gssrl.81.4.577Published:JUL-AUG2010
6.Title:Impactofa1755-liketsunamiinHuelva,SpainAuthor(s):LimaV.V.;MirandaJ.M.;Baptista M.A.;etal.Source:NATURALHAZARDSANDEARTHSYSTEMSCIENCESVolume:10Issue:1Pages:139-148Published:2010
7.Title:Aninsitu borescopic quantitativeimagingprofilerforthemeasurementofhighconcentrationsedimentvelocityAuthor(s):CowenEdwinA.;DudleyRussellD.;LiaoQian;etal.Source:EXPERIMENTSINFLUIDSVolume:49Issue:1SpecialIssue:SIPages:77-88DOI:10.1007/s00348-009-0801-8Published:JUL2010
8.Title:Tsunamihazardfromthesubduction megathrust oftheSouthChinaSea:PartI.SourcecharacterizationandtheresultingtsunamiAuthor(s):MegawatiKusnowidjaja;ShawFelicia;Sieh Kerry;etal.Source:JOURNALOFASIANEARTHSCIENCESVolume:36Issue:1Pages:13-20DOI:10.1016/j.jseaes.2008.11.012Published:SEP42009
9.Title:SimulationofAndaman2004tsunamiforassessingimpactonMalaysiaAuthor(s):Koh HockLye;Teh SuYean;LiuPhilipLi-Fan;etal.Source:JOURNALOFASIANEARTHSCIENCESVolume:36Issue:1Pages:74-83DOI:10.1016/j.jseaes.2008.09.008Published:SEP42009TimesCited:0(fromWebofScience)
10.Title:ModelingtsunamihazardsfromManilatrenchtoTaiwanAuthor(s):WuTso-Ren;HuangHui-ChuanSource:JOURNALOFASIANEARTHSCIENCESVolume:36Issue:1Pages:21-28DOI:10.1016/j.jseaes.2008.12.006Published:SEP42009TimesCited:0(fromWebofScience)
11.Title:TsunamihazardandearlywarningsysteminSouthChinaSeaAuthor(s):LiuPhilipL.-F.;WangXiaoming;SalisburyAndrewJ.Source:JOURNALOFASIANEARTHSCIENCESVolume:36Issue:1Pages:2-12DOI:10.1016/j.jseaes.2008.12.010Published:SEP42009
（Tobecontinued）
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SupportingToolwithCOMCOTTsunamiModel
• FortranCompiler:ifort
• DataProcessing:MATLAB/Octave
• FigurePlotting:MATLAB/Octave
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1.Demonstrationof2004SumatraTsunami
TsunamiSourceReconstructionof2004SumatraTsunami
SourceConstraintsandModelSimulationoftheDecember26,2004,IndianOceanTsunami(Grilli etal.,2007)
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India
SriLanka
Malaysia
Sumatra
Myanmar
Bangladesh
InitialTsunamiWaveHeightof2004SumatraTsunami
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India
SriLanka
Malaysia
Sumatra
Myanmar
Bangladesh
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2.Demonstrationof2011JapanTsunami
DevelopmentofatsunamiearlywarningsystemfortheSouthChinaSea (Linetal.,2015)
TsunamiSourceReconstructionof2011JapanTsunami
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MaximumTsunamiWaveHeightof2011JapanTsunami
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iCOMCOT CloudComputingServiceatASGC
iCOMCOT (https://icomcot.twgrid.org/index.html)
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StormSurgeModeling
STORMSURGE
• Storm surge is a coastal flood of risingwater commonly associated with lowpressure weather systems :ü Tropical cyclonesü Stormsü Typhoonsü Hurricanes
• The two main meteorological factorscontributing to a storm surge are:ü Pressure gradientü Wind shear stress
SeaSurfaceinducedbytyphoons(Wiki)
TidalEffectwithStormSurges(Wiki) 17 /49
InundationinducedbyStormSurges• Destroyofhomesandbusiness• Potentialthreatofcoastalcommunities• Damagesofroadsandbridges
Inundationinducedby2005HurricaneKatrina.(http://www.stormsurge.noaa.gov/)
Flooded by storm surge of Hurricane Katrina(2005) in the northwest New Orleans.
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TropicalCyclonesinEastAsia
Tracks of all tropical cyclones in the northwestern Pacific Ocean between 1951 and 2014.
Taiwan
China
Philippines
SouthChinaSea
PacificOcean
Japan Taiwan
Philippines
Hong Kong
Korea
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COMCOT-SURGEModel(COrnellMulti-gridCOupled TsunamiModel– StormSurge)
21 1cos
sb a
w w
FPQ PQ Q gH HfP Ft R H R H R R
jj
hj y j j r y r
æ ö ¶¶ ¶ ¶ ¶æ ö+ + + + + = - +ç ÷ç ÷¶ ¶ ¶ ¶ ¶è ø è ø
( )1 cos 0cos
P Qt Rh j
j y jì ü¶ ¶ ¶
+ + × =í ý¶ ¶ ¶î þ
NonlinearShallowWaterEquationsontheSphericalCoordinate
• Solve nonlinear shallow water equations on bothspherical and Cartesian coordinates.
• Explicit leapfrog Finite Difference Method for stableand high speed calculation.
• Multi/Nested-grid system for multiple shallow waterwave scales.
• Moving Boundary Scheme for inundation.• High-speed efficiency.
21 1cos cos cos
sb a
w w
FPP P PQ gH HfQ Ft R H R H R R
yy
hj y j j y r j y r
æ ö ¶¶ ¶ ¶ ¶æ ö+ + + - + = - +ç ÷ ç ÷¶ ¶ ¶ ¶ ¶è øè ø
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SupportingToolwithCOMCOT-SURGEModel
• FortranCompiler:ifort
• DataProcessing:MATLAB/Octave
• FigurePlotting:MATLAB/Octave
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1.TheCaseStudyof2013TyphoonHaiyan
Source:HongKongObservatory22 /49
Four-LevelNestedComputationalDomainLAYER01(4km)
LAYER02(1km)• Layer 01 can cover the complete typhoon
life cycle of Typhoon Haiyan and the fullstorm surge propagation.
• Layer 02 can include the offshorehydrodynamic progresses of storm surgeon the fine mesh domain.
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ThecomputationaldomainofLayer03andLayer04couldcoverthestormsurgepropagationsinoffshoreandnearshoreregions.
LAYER04(120m)
LeyteGulf
LAYER03(500m)
Near-shore ComputationalDomainLayer03(500m)/Layer04(120m)
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CombinewiththeAtmosphericWRFModel
• Asymmetriceffect• Topographiceffect
• HydrodynamicPressure
PressureField
WindField
TheWRFsimulationsareprovidedbyProf.Chuan-YaoLin,AARModelingLaboratory(Sinica).
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StormSurgesInducedbyTyphoonHaiyan2013.11.0600:00– 2013.11.0900:00(UTC+0)
Large computational domaintocoverthecompletestormsurgepropagationinducedbyTyphoonHaiyanwithCorioliseffect.
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SnapshotsofStormSurgesinthePhilippines
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MaximumSimulatedStormTidesatLeyteGulf
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2.DemonstrationofOperationalStormSurgePredictioninTaiwan
2016Catogory-5TyphoonNepartak inTaiwan
ThetrackofTyphoonNepartak (CWB,Taiwan) U.SNavalResearchLaboratory
Our COMCOT storm surge model has been to the officialoperational system at CWB, Taiwan since Typhoon Nepartak.
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StormSurgeOperationalTaskOurCOMCOTstormsurgemodelhasbeentheofficialoperationalsystemattheCentral
WeatherBureau(CWB)from2016.
INPUT
OUTPUT
Ø Meteorological Force: Parametric Typhoon Model or TWRF Model.
Ø Tidal Boundary Condition: TPXO 7.1 model.
INPUT OUTPUTCOMCOT
StormSurgeModel
Start
Parametric Typhoon Model (3 hr/cycle) / TWRF Model (6 hr/cycle)
Exit
Ø 48-HR Time Series for Storm Tide and Pure Tide at 34 specified locations.
Ø 2-dimensional model product. 31 /49
1. Every forecasting includes two 96-HR computations, and one for storm tide (storm surge + tide) runand another for pure tide run.
2. There are 48-HR warm-up and 48-HR forecast at each storm tide run.
SchematicDiagram forStormTideRunandPureTideRun
48-HR Warm-up 48-HR ForecastStart
2015.09.0302:00(UTC+8)
2015.09.0502:00(UTC+8)
2015.09.0102:00(UTC+8)
2015.09.0502:00(UTC+8)
2015.09.0102:00(UTC+8)
StormTideRun(StormSurge+Tide)
PureTideRun 96-HR Forecast
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LAYER01(Deep-waterRegions) LAYER02(OffshoreRegions)
Two-levelNested-gridDomainforOperationalTaskLayer01(8km)/Layer02(2km)
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LayerID Domain ArraySizeGrid
Number
Bathymetry
Database
LAYER-01 (110.00-134.00,10.00-35.00) 361*376 135,736 ETOPO1
LAYER-02-A (119.80-122.25,21.40-25.50) 144*244 35,136 GEBCO
LAYER-02-B (119.09-119.80,23.05-23.89) 80*88 7,040 GEBCO
LAYER-02-C (117.80-118.99,24.09-24.70) 136* 72 9,792 GEBCO
LAYER-02-D (119.39-120.19,25.84-26.35) 88*48 4,224 GEBCO
GridInformationofTwo-LevelNestedDomains
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TideValidationofCOMCOT-SURGEModel(2016.09.11 00:00 – 2016.09.15 00:00)
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Toucheng頭城
Anping安平
Dawu大武
StormSurgesInducedbyTyphoonNepartak
Storm surges could be calculated for 2-daypredictions and only spends 1.0 hr on a PC-levelcomputational resources. 36 /49
Peoplelivein theseareas needtopayattentiontothestormsurgeinundation.
SurgeandWaveinTaiwan(http://news.rthk.hk/rthk/ch/component/k2/1271353-20160708.htm)
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3.2016 SevereTyphoonMerantiTyphoon Meranti was one of the most intense tropical cyclones on record. Impacting
the Batanes in the Philippines, Taiwan, as well as Fujian, China in September 2016.
年 月 日 時中心位置(經/緯)
中心氣壓(Pa)
七級風半徑(km)
近中心最大風速(m/s)
2016 9 12 00 130.4 18.0 940 180 452016 9 12 06 129.3 18.3 925 200 512016 9 12 12 128.2 18.9 910 200 552016 9 12 18 126.7 19.3 905 200 582016 9 13 00 125.5 19.6 905 200 582016 9 13 06 124.1 20.2 905 200 582016 9 13 12 122.9 20.4 900 220 602016 9 13 18 121.8 20.9 905 220 582016 9 14 00 120.8 21.5 905 220 582016 9 14 06 119.8 22.6 925 200 512016 9 14 12 118.9 23.4 930 200 482016 9 14 18 118.4 24.4 950 180 402016 9 15 00 117.6 25.2 970 150 33
莫蘭蒂路徑圖
Best-trackparametersofTyphoonMeranti
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3-DDemonstrationofStormSurgeModelinginDeep-waterRegions
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3.DemonstrationofHigh-ResolutionStormSurge
InundationCalculationinTaiwan
TyphoonSoudelor in2015• TyphoonSoudelor wasthestrongesttyphooninWesternNorthPacificregionsat2015.Accordingtothebriefanalysis,morethan4,000thousandsfamilieslosttheirelectricityduringtyphoonperiodandaccumulativerainfallismorethan1,000mm.
• Becauseofthedestructivedamages,economiclossandhumancasualties atMarianaIslands,Taiwan,andChina,thename“Soudelor”wasremovedfromthelistoftyphoonnamesandwouldnotbeusedforever.
（資料來源：中央氣象局颱風資料庫）Thefloodinlow-lyingregionatIlan becauseofTyphoonSoudelor. (中央社記者沈如峰宜蘭縣) 41 /49
Nested-GridComputationalDomain(1)–OpenOceanandOffshoreRegion
Layer 01 is adopted to cover the completetyphoons’ life cycle and full storm surgepropagations.
採用大尺度之球座標系統計算域，涵蓋颱風生命週期以及完整的風暴潮傳遞歷程。
Res=4.0km
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Nested-GridComputationalDomain(2)-Near-ShoreandCoastalRegion
Layer02andLayer03areadoptedtocalculatenonlinearshallowwaterequationswithtidaleffect,bottomeffects,andCorioliseffect,andevaluateinundationareaintheresolutionof200meters.
Res=1.0km Res=0.2km
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Large-ScaleStormSurgeSimulationonSphericalCoordinateSystem2015.08.0200:00– 2015.08.0906:00(UTC)
PressureField
WindField
The large computational domain is adopted to simulate thecomplete storm surge propagation on spherical coordinate system.
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CoastalInundationCalculation
Pingtung Pingtung
StormTides(StormSurge+Tide) PureTide
OurCOMCOTstormsurgemodelcouldalsocalculationtheinundationareawithnonlinearshallowwaterequationswhichconsidersnonlineareffects,bottomeffects,andCorioliseffectsinside.
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CombinewithGISGoogleEarthSoftware
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ComparisonwithObservedData2015.08.0600:00-2015.08.0906:00(UTC)
ThetideobserveddataareprovidedbyourCWBinTaiwan.
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Conclusion• DemonstrationofTsunamiModeling
• 2004SumatraTsunami• 2011JapanTsunami
• DemonstrationofStormSurgeModeling• 2013TyphoonHaiyan(Philippines)• 2015TyphoonSoudelor (Taiwan)• 2016TyphoonNetpark (Taiwan)• 2016TyphoonMeranti (Taiwan)
• iCOMCOT – CloudTsunamiModelingService
• iSurge – Comingsoon48 /49
Tsunami Science Laboratory水文與海洋科學研究所
WelcomeforDiscussion!
Dr.EricYen([email protected])ASGC,Sinica,Taiwan
Prof.SimonC.Lin([email protected])ASGC,Sinica,Taiwan
Prof.Tso-RenWu([email protected])NationalCentralUniversity,Taiwan
Yu-Lin Tsai ([email protected])NationalCentralUniversity,Taiwan
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Source Constraints and Model Simulation of the December 26, 2004, Indian Ocean Tsunami
Stéphan T.Grilli;MansourIoualalen;JackAsavanant;Fengyan Shi;JamesT.Kirby;andPhilipWatts
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SourceParameters(Grilli etal.,2007)
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(1).NOAABenchmarkProblemValidationComparewiththeSolitaryWaveRun-upExperiments(Synolakis,1986and1987).
(Wu,2012)
(fromNOAAOfficialWebsite)
SimulatedbyCOMCOT
soliton
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(2).High-speedCalculationCWB COMCOT-Surge Model canfinish48hrs forecastin30minsand
beusedfortheoperationalsystem.
TheresultshasbeenpublishedonOceanEngineering(SimonC.Linetal.,2015).
Dynamicresourcessharing.
ParallelComputingonMultiCores.
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(3).CombinewiththeAtmosphericModelWRF/TWRF(WeatherResearchandForecastingModel)
• TWRF model is an atmospheric model adopted foroperational forecasts by Central Weather Bureau inTaiwan.
• The TWRF model will start its simulation per 6 hoursin a day at 00, 06, 12 and 18 UTC time respectively.
WRFComputationalDomain(CWB)
PressureField
WindField
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The tides are provided as complex amplitudes ofearth-relative sea-surface elevation for eight primary(M2, S2, N2, K2, K1, O1, P1, Q1), two long period(Mf,Mm) and 3 non-linear (M4, MS4, MN4) harmonicconstituents.
(4).CombinewithGlobalTideModel(USA OSUTOPEX/POSEIDONGlobalTidalModel)
UserInterfaceofTPXO
TPXOcanprovidetidalinformation,likeM2. (Dushaw etal.,1997) 55 /49
(5).High-AccuracyTideSimulationThebiasissmallerthan0.1mandRMSEissmallerthan0.4 m.
ValidatedGaugeLocationsatTaiwan
TheobserveddataandharmonicdataareprovidedbyCWB(Taiwan). 56 /49
2016年莫蘭蒂颱風颱風警報單時間：2016031308
(颱風資料庫提供)
ForecastProduct(1)Maximum StormSurge
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2016年莫蘭蒂颱風颱風警報單時間：2016031308
(颱風資料庫提供)
ForecastProduct(2)Maximum StormTides
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2016年莫蘭蒂颱風颱風警報單時間：2016031308
(颱風資料庫提供)
ForecastProduct(3)Maximum Tides
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2016年莫蘭蒂颱風颱風警報單時間：2016031308
(颱風資料庫提供)
ForecastProduct(4)Maximum Storm Tides – Maximum Tides
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