Dinamika SpatialDinamika Spatial
PPS Ilmu Geografi 2007
Hidup dari lingkungan
Berburu dan bertani
Berdagang / barter
Berdagang / transaksi
benda berharga
(uang)
Export/ import
Perdagangan regional
baru
Apalagi yang akan datang ?
terkonvergnsi
Jaman imperialisme………….... Imperialisme gaya baru
globalisasi
Tata dunia baru
(metanasional)
Long Wave Cycles of InnovationLong Wave Cycles of Innovation
1785 1845 1900 1950 1990
1st Wave 2nd Wave 3rd Wave 4th Wave 5th Wave
Water powerTextilesIron
SteamRailSteel
ElectricityChemicalsInternal-combustionengine
PetrochemicalsElectronicsAviation
Digital networksSoftwareNew Media
60 years 55 years 50 years 40 years 30 years
Pace o
f in
novati
on
Kumulatif Sumbangan Moda Transportasi Kumulatif Sumbangan Moda Transportasi terhadap Peluang Ekonomisterhadap Peluang Ekonomis
KudaKapal Laut
Kapal Penyeberangan
Kereta Api
Jalan darat Udara
Telekomunikasi
1750 1775 1800 1825 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 2025 2050
Pelu
an
g E
kon
om
is
Revolusi Industrial Produksi Massal
Globalisasi
Sectors of the EconomySectors of the Economy
Primary
Secondary
Tertiary
Quaternary
Time
Per
cent
of
Wor
kfor
ce
Spatial dynamic systemsSpatial dynamic systems
f ( I (tn ))
. . .FF
f ( I (t) ) f ( I (t+2) )f ( I (t+1) )
Spatial dynamic systems simulates spatio-temporal processes in which the state of a location, on the Earth´s surface, changes over time, due to some physical phenomena.
tp - 20 tp - 10
tp
calibration calibrationtp + 10
ForecastForecast
Dynamic spatial modelsDynamic spatial models
fonte: Almeida et al (2003)
Spatial dynamic system elementsSpatial dynamic system elements
Transition RulesTransition Rules
FuzzyL(Clue)Expander(Dinâmica)
LocalMean (Riks)
ModelsModels
discretehybrid
continuous
DinâmicaRiks
Clue
Space representationSpace representation
NeighborhoodNeighborhood
Celli+1,,j
Celli,j
Celli+1,j+1
Celli,j+1
modelo celular
ob
j1o
bj2
obj1 obj2
1
0
0
1
Spatial dynamic system Spatial dynamic system elementselements
uniform proprieties regular structure
proximitry matrixnon stationary
Space-time modeling: issues Space-time modeling: issues for current methodsfor current methods
Look at change over time at several Look at change over time at several localitieslocalities
Look at change across space for Look at change across space for several moments in timeseveral moments in time
t1
t2
t3
Expansion Diffusion
t1
t2
t3
Relocation Diffusion
Combination of Expansion and Relocation
Batas funsional kota
Batas administrasi
Under-bounded Over-bounded
True-bounded
Space-time modeling: issues Space-time modeling: issues for current methodsfor current methods
Alcalá
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Neol IINeol IFinalPaleo/Meso
Upper PaleoMiddle Paleo
temporal interval
pe
rce
nt
of
are
a s
urv
ey
ed
75th
90th
SII percentiles
Penaguila
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Neol IINeol IFinalPaleo/Meso
Upper PaleoMiddle Paleo
per
cen
t o
f ar
ea s
urv
eyed
75th
90th
SII percentiles
Muro
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Neol IINeol IFinalPaleo/Meso
Upper PaleoMiddle Paleo
pe
rce
nt
of
are
a s
urv
ey
ed
75th
90th
SII percentiles
Polop
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
Neol IINeol IFinalPaleo/Meso
Upper PaleoMiddle Paleo
per
cen
t o
f ar
ea s
urv
eyed
75th
90th
SII percentiles
Space-time modeling: issues Space-time modeling: issues for current methodsfor current methods
M. PaleoM. Paleo
U. PaleoU. Paleo
EpipaleoEpipaleo
Late NeolLate Neol
Early NeolEarly Neol
Space-time modeling: issues Space-time modeling: issues for current methodsfor current methods
High resolution diachronic record in one or High resolution diachronic record in one or a few sitesa few sites unwarranted regional unwarranted regional generalization across variable spacegeneralization across variable spaceHigh resolution spatial record for a few High resolution spatial record for a few time periodstime periods past as a sequence of past as a sequence of snapshots with change happening invisibly snapshots with change happening invisibly between (or stepwise change)between (or stepwise change)Conceptualizing rich socioecological Conceptualizing rich socioecological variation across space and complex variation across space and complex dynamics through time desirable but dynamics through time desirable but difficult with current methodsdifficult with current methods
Future directions in space-time Future directions in space-time modelingmodeling
Goals for study of long-term dynamics of human Goals for study of long-term dynamics of human ecologyecologyHigh resolution modelsHigh resolution models– spatialspatial– chronologicalchronological
Link dynamically so that Link dynamically so that – state of modeled ecosystem at any given time (t) is in state of modeled ecosystem at any given time (t) is in
part a function of ecosystem at prior time (t-1) and part a function of ecosystem at prior time (t-1) and affects future state (t+1)affects future state (t+1)
– State of modeled ecosystem at any given locale is in State of modeled ecosystem at any given locale is in part a function of state in surrounding localespart a function of state in surrounding locales
Test against archaeo-ecological recordTest against archaeo-ecological record
Future directions in space-time Future directions in space-time modeling: an examplemodeling: an example
Mediterranean Landscape Mediterranean Landscape Dynamics ProjectDynamics Project
Project locations at opposite Project locations at opposite ends of Mediterranean Basinends of Mediterranean Basin– Encompasses wide range of Encompasses wide range of
ecological & social variationecological & social variation– Tracks initial spread of Tracks initial spread of
agriculture & replacement of agriculture & replacement of foraging systemsforaging systems
– Different trajectories to the Different trajectories to the appearance of social appearance of social complexity and urbanismcomplexity and urbanism
Dynamic space-time modelingDynamic space-time modeling
3 interlinked 3 interlinked modeling modeling environments in environments in GIS platformGIS platform– Potential landscape Potential landscape
modelmodel– Reference Reference
landscape landscape chronosequencechronosequence
– Agropastoral Agropastoral socioecology modelsocioecology model
Vegetationmodeling:
multi-yr. steps
Vegetationmodeling:
multi-yr. steps
Potential landscape model
Potential landscape model
Terrainmodeling:
multi-yr. steps
Terrainmodeling:
multi-yr. steps
Climatemodel
(temp&precip)
Climatemodel
(temp&precip)
Paleo-terrains(DEM’s)
Paleo-terrains(DEM’s)
Reference
landscape
chronoseq.
Reference
landscape
chronoseq.
Archeological data
Archeological data
Geologicaldata
Geologicaldata
Paleobotanicaldata
Paleobotanicaldata
Veg. edaphic parameters
Veg. edaphic parameters
Paleo-vegetation
Paleo-vegetation
Prehistoricsettlement& landuse
Prehistoricsettlement& landuse
ModernDEM
ModernDEM
Agropastoral
socioecology
model
Agropastoral
socioecology
model
Settlement& landusemodeling
Settlement& landusemodeling
Agent ModelingAgent Modeling
Terrainmodeling:
multi-yr. steps
Terrainmodeling:
multi-yr. steps
Vegetationmodeling:
multi-yr. steps
Vegetationmodeling:
multi-yr. steps
Climatemodel
(temp&precip)
Climatemodel
(temp&precip)
Initial stateInitial state
Initial state& validation
at various stages
Initial state& validation
at various stages
Dynamic space-time modelingDynamic space-time modeling
Potential landscape model: surface Potential landscape model: surface processes and landcoverprocesses and landcover
Vegetationmodeling:
multi-yr. steps
Vegetationmodeling:
multi-yr. steps
Potential landscape
model
Potential landscape
model
Terrainmodeling:
multi-yr. steps
Terrainmodeling:
multi-yr. steps
Climatemodel
(temp&precip)
Climatemodel
(temp&precip)
Paleo-terrains(DEM’s)
Paleo-terrains(DEM’s)
Reference landscape chronoseq.
Reference landscape chronoseq.
Archeological data
Archeological data
Geologicaldata
Geologicaldata
Paleobotanicaldata
Paleobotanicaldata
Veg. edaphic parameters
Veg. edaphic parameters
Paleo-vegetation
Paleo-vegetation
Prehistoricsettlement& landuse
Prehistoricsettlement& landuse
ModernDEM
ModernDEM
Dynamic space-time modelingDynamic space-time modeling
Reference landscape chronosequence: Reference landscape chronosequence: surface processes and landcoversurface processes and landcover
SettlementEstablish
Shrink/growAbandonLocation
SettlementEstablish
Shrink/growAbandonLocation
LanduseLocation/extent
Cultivation (which crops)Pasture (which animals)
LanduseLocation/extent
Cultivation (which crops)Pasture (which animals)
DecisionAlgorithmsDecision
Algorithms
Information InputsTemp. extremes
Precip. amt & distTerrain characteristics
Current vegetation
Information InputsTemp. extremes
Precip. amt & distTerrain characteristics
Current vegetation
Settlement &landuse impacts
on terrain &vegetation
Settlement &landuse impacts
on terrain &vegetation
Agent ModelingAgent Modeling
Dynamic space-time modelingDynamic space-time modeling
Human landuse: agent simulationHuman landuse: agent simulation
Dynamic space-time modelingDynamic space-time modeling
Climate surface processes & Climate surface processes & landcover agent simulationlandcover agent simulationLandscape socioecologyLandscape socioecology
Settlement& landusemodeling
Settlement& landusemodeling
Agent ModelingAgent Modeling
Terrainmodeling:
multi-yr. steps
Terrainmodeling:
multi-yr. steps
Vegetationmodeling:
multi-yr. steps
Vegetationmodeling:
multi-yr. steps
Climatemodel
(temp&precip)
Climatemodel
(temp&precip)
Polop Valley Landuse IntensityM. Paleolithicto Neolithic II
Agropastoral socioecology
model
Agropastoral socioecology
model
Spatial DynamicSpatial Dynamic
Driven by :Driven by :
• Population Population
• Economic Economic activitiesactivities
• TechnologyTechnology
• etcetc
Materi Spatial DynamicMateri Spatial Dynamic
Space – timeSpace – time
Spatial changing dan changing Spatial changing dan changing overtimeovertime
Spatial ThinkingSpatial Thinking
System Dynamic (1): IntroSystem Dynamic (1): Intro
System Dynamic (2): LatihanSystem Dynamic (2): Latihan
Cases: Spatial Dynamic Cases: Spatial Dynamic