Global Sustainability and

Local Sustainability@EcoLead

Itaru Yasui, Prof.Prof.Emeritus, U of Tokyo

Former Vice Rector, United Nation UniversityPresident, National Institute of Technology and

Evaluationhttp://www.yasuienv.net/ 1

Bankruptcy of the Earth　 ~Limit to Growth in 21st century

Published December in 2012 To provide information to have an insight

into non-sustainable future of the Earth Author 　 Itaru YASUI Coauthors, 8 researchers below,

　 Seita Emori 　 NIES　 Hiroyuki Kawashima Univ. of Tokyo　 Ayako Sonoda 　 Cre-en, President　 Koumei Halada 　 NIMS　 Miki Baba 　 Nikkei Ecology　 Junichi Fujino 　 NIES 　　 Yuuichi Moriguchi 　 Univ. of Tokyo

　　 Hiroyuki Matsuda National Univ. Yokohama 　

2

持続不可能な地球の限界と未来像

What is your evaluation in 21st Century? 　　 5: Very Serious, 4:Serious, 3:Rather Serious, 　 2: Moderate for a while 1:Managiable

Climate Change/Extreme Whether 　　　　　　　　　　　　

Loss of Biological Diversity 　　　　　　

Depletion of Metal Resources 　　　　

Depletion of Fossil Fuel 　　　　 Explosion of Population/Food

Issues 　　　　 Environmental Pollution

Issues 　　　　　　　　 Not Enough Budget to Handle

Issues 　　　　

3

個人的な評価を書いてみて下さい

Chapter 1.Local Bankruptcy

地域の破綻

& Global Sustainability

地球の持続可能性

4

5

Republic of Nauru Population 9300, 20km2

ナウル共和国　

Coral Reef?

Guano in Nauru 　ナウル産グアノ

6

 Guano manure is an effective fertilizer due to its high levels of phosphorus and nitrogen and its relative lack of odor compared to other forms of organic fertilizer such as horse manure.

Guano Depleted in Republic of Nauru枯渇したナウルのグアノ

2 million tons every year Amount decreased from 1989 100 million tons of guano mined High income & No income tax Free electricity Free medical care and free education fee No cooking, always eat outside Laborers mainly from China Economy 100% dependence on export Started to Deplete from 2000 Job less rate 90% 　 No intention to work 　　　　　　　　　

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　

7失業率９０％　働く意思なし　　

2012 　 Drought in USA　　　　　　　カンサス州の干ばつ

8

East Part of Kansas, USA

9

10

West Part of Kansas, USA

Center Pivot Irrigation回転式散水機

11

Ogallala Aquifer, Grate Planes, USA

　＋　＋

　＋＋

Ogallala Aquifer, USA 　オガララ帯水層“Fossil Water” 　　　　　化石水Water from 2 to 6 million years ago

Recharge Speed by rain << Extraction Speed

It is difficult to say, “Yes, they are OK. Because USA farmers are different from people in Nauru.”

12

Water Shortage - Hundreds of Millions of People淡水不足　数億人

Biosphere may become net carbon source植物圏が二酸化炭素排出原因に　湿性熱帯林

Food: Good in Some Place, Bad in Other Place食料事情は地域にまばら

13

30% of Global Coastal Wetlands Lost湿原が失われる

0 1 2 3 4 deg C

Lenton and Schellnhuber (2007)

Tipping Elements and Temperature Rise

14

Sea Level Rise ～ 7 meters in 1000 years or more

氷床の溶解で海面上昇１０００年間で～７ｍ

Other Expression of Tipping Points

15

人間活動の

圧力 Recovery Force of the Earth

θ Tipping Point=Recovery Force

Becomes ZeroPressureBy

Human Activities

θ0 TP 90

Energy

人間活動の圧力

地球の復元力

Temperature – History 1000years

16

小氷期の温度もそれほど違わない

Little Glacier: 　 Temperature differences were not so Big!

Mann et al. (2008) より

Little Glacier

Temp. Northern Hemi-sphere

Trends in Living Planet Index

17

＝脊椎動物の減少

Loss of BiodiversityClimate Change 　⇒　 Distribution Change of Plant(Plantae) 　⇒　 Extinction of Species A typical species becomes extinct within 10

million years of its first appearance Human Beings may last 5 ～ 9 m Years or

more Global Scale Extinction Events 　　 When 　

Scale Cretaceous–Paleogene(K–Pg) ～ 66 Ma 　

75% Triassic–Jurassic(Tr-J) ～ 201 Ma half Permian–Triassic (P–Tr) ～ 252 Ma 96%

Marine Late Devonian (Late D) ～ 374 Ma

half Ordovician–Silurian (O-S) ～ 450 Ma 60%

Marine

18

中生代白亜紀－新生代古第三紀中生代三畳紀－中生代ジュラ紀

古生代ペルム紀－三畳紀

古生代デボン紀後期

古生代オルドビス紀－シルル紀

種の寿命　１０００万年

19

　　　　 http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phanerozoic　　　　　

属の数

千

五大絶滅

脊椎動物亜門哺乳綱獣亜綱食肉目ネコ亜目ネコ科ネコ属Vertebrata Mammalia Theria Canivora Feliformia Felidae Felis

チーター属、レオパード属、オオヤマネコ属、ピューマ属、ヒョウ属、他に１２属　 Acinonyx, Leopardus, Lynx, Puma, Panthera 、 12 Others

Numbers of Species (in thousand)　　　　生物種の数

20

昆虫・多足類　　　菌・カビ

　節足動物原生動物

線虫植物

擬軟体甲殻類

脊椎動物

Speed of Extinction

21

１０００年間で１０００種の生物種のうち絶滅する数

Global Scale Depletion of Underground Resources – Minerals/Fossil Fuel

22

23

Recent Trend: Price goes up! 

Commodity Price Indices FoodRaw MaterialsEnergyMetals and Minerals

1990

Probably because ofExcessive liquidity

過剰流動性投機資金

24

By 2050 all reserve will be usedBy 2050 twice of reserve be usedBy 2050 exceed reserve baseReserve Base

Estimated Use Accumulated

Already Mined

Reserve

原田幸明氏提供

Old Metals＝漢字がある

25

Degradation of Ore GradesOre Grades of Ni and Cu Mines （ 1885-

2010 ）

Australia （％ Cu）

Australia （％ Ni）

Canda （％ Cu）

Canada （％ Ni）

USA （％ Cu ）

森口祐一氏提供

NiCu

0.3%

26

Env. Burden Ranking by TMR = Cu > 　 Fe > 　 Au > 　 Al > Ni

TMR = Total Material Requirement

OthersZnURhPtPdSnNiAlAuFeCu

有用な資源を採掘する結果発生する廃土・廃岩石の量 Weight of Mine Waste Accompanied by Mineral Extraction

27

DevelopedCountries

Forests in DevelopingCountries

From MA=Millennium Ecosystem

Assessment (UN 2001~2005)

~1950 1950~1990 ~2050

土地の改変Area Converted

28

We still have enough petroleum. In some sense, TOO MUCH.

Used Midle EastOther

Deep Ocean300~1500m

Ultra Deep1500m ～Ice Sea

EOR Heavy

ShaleOil

　 Price $/barrel 　　

Reserves vs. Cost for Oil Production

Reserves in Billion Barrel

石油資源はなかなか枯渇しない　気候変動防止の視点→　多すぎる

29

World Population Prospects, the 2010 RevisionFigure 1: Estimated and projected world population according to

different variants, 1950-2100 (billions)

UN Prospect of Global Population up to 2100 　２　

Low

High

Medium

“2052” by Jorgen Randers

“Megachange: The world in 2050” 

The Economist

Ours

30

World Population Prospects, the 2010 RevisionFigure 2: Estimated and projected population by major area, medium

variant , 1950-2100 (billions)

Asia

Africa

North America

To be Flat Follow the Asian

Trend 50 years 　behind

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　Projected Population of Regions up to 2100 　　

　　　　　　　　　　

Inflection Point変曲点

31

Fertility Rate is important

LatinAmerica

AfricaAsia

Oceania

North America Europe

出生率が大きな要素

Chapter 2.Local Sustainability

under the influence ofClimate Change

32

Typhoon No.30 HaiyanHit Leyte province in the eastern Philippines

33

２０日１２時

２２日０９時

２５日０９時

World Economic Forum 　ダボス会議Global Risks 2013 　 Eighth Edition Select 50 risks from 5 fields, Societal,

Geopolitical, Economic, Technological 　and Environmental

10 risks from each field Total 50 risks with a scope of 10 years

from now An Important Point ＝ Cognitive

Biases 　

　　　　「認知バイアス」　 Difficult to Overcome Inevitable to overcome somehow

34

35

Environmental

36

　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　　 Likelihood 3 　 3.5 　 4

Impact4

3.5

気候変動適応策 温室効果ガス濃度の上昇

異常気象頻発

対策不能な環境汚染

抗生剤の効かない病原菌

土地と水路の無謀な改変

37

IPCC 　 AR5 　 WGⅠRelation between

CO2 Emission vs. Temp. Anomaly

温度上昇は累積の CO2放出量と比例

38

Allowance of

IPCC 　 AR5 　 WGⅠ

Integrated Assessment Model

Best Available

Scenario？

放出可能な残り予算

CO2 Emission from Fossil Fuel　 for 2050 and 2100

Target: Anomaly below 2.5 ℃ Delay of some Tipping Elements In order to this, with 9 B of

population In 2050 　 10 GtC/year 　 Globally Per capita emission 　 1.1 ｔ C/year/capita

In 2100 　 4 GtC/year Globally Per capita emission 　 0.25 ｔ C/year/capita 39

cf. Currenly in Japan 　　　 2.7 ｔ C/year/capita

２１００年一人あたり放出量現在の１／１０

40

　　　　　　 Chapter 3. Local Risks 　　　　　　　

Agricultural Activities and Related Risks

Environmental Risks for Agriculture Environmental Conditions for

Agriculture Water supply ・ Temperature Change 　

水・温度 Essential Elements 　　 N, P, Others 　　

元素 Status of Soil 　　　土壌　　　　　　　　　　農薬

Agrichemicals such as Insecticide or Herbicide

Genetically Modified Organisms 　遺伝子組換

Environmental Changes to be considered Change accompanied by Climate

Change 　 Limitation of Natural Resources 　資源限界 Water/Soil Change caused by Human

Activities Feelings of Consumers 消費者　　水・土の変

化

41

42

Amount of Stream Flow=Fresh Water 2081 to 2100 From IPCC AR5 2013 河川流量＝淡水量

DRY

Issues in Locations Location and Availability of Water

Stream Flow will be affected by Climate Change

Ground Water has different Characteristics Turkey, Spain, Portugal, Italy will be dry. In Japan, not so much difference.

Temperature will affect most of suitable agri. products. 　農作物の地域への適性・不適正　特産物

Special Products in the area will be affected. Apples in Nagano -> Pairs in Nagano? Grapes and Wineries in Europe already

receive some changes. Germany will be the best place? 　ドイツ産 ?

43In most cases, Some kinds of Adaptations are required.

何らかの適応策が必須

Water Dependence on Snow or Ice of Glacier - High Mountains

Snow or Ice in winter play role of Reservoir

In spring, water from snow melt used for agriculture

Climate Change -> Early snow melting in winter -> No water reservoir for Agriculture

This tendencies already apparent in Himalayan or Tibetan Region and similar in Andean Area

Adaptation : To construct new water reservoirs for Agriculture

44

山岳地帯農業

雪は貯水池

春には水不足

ヒマラヤ・チベット

アンデスも

貯水池建設は必須

45

Fragility is high in water supply in High Mountains

Important to keep less than 2 degree 2℃程度以下に抑えたい

≒　 2℃ ≒　５℃

Fertilizer Issue Nitrogen Fertilizer

Harbor-Bosch Process’ success to make Ammonia from Nitrogen and Hydrogen

Huge Energy Consumption More than 1% of Global Energy Consumption

Side Effects of Excessive Use=Over-fertilization

Pollutant to Underground Water Eutrophication(Nutrient Enrichment) of Lake

and River Water Increase N2O(one of GHG) emission from

Patty Fields MUST: Appropriate Use of Nitrogen Fertilizer

46

肥料の問題窒素肥料

ハーバーボッシュ法

地下水汚染

富栄養化

一酸化二窒素＝温室効果ガス

20世紀の人口爆発の原因は穀物単収（単位面積当たりの収穫量）の増加にある 　　　　　　 フランスの小麦　出展 Michel & FAO

1,800 1,836 1,872 1,908 1,944 1,980 2,016 0

2

4

6

8

単収

　(t/ha)

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 20200

20,000,000

40,000,000

60,000,000

80,000,000

100,000,000

120,000,000

140,000,000

The amount of Nitrogen Fixed by Harbor-Bosch Process (ton)

Harbor demonstrated the process in the summer of 1909.

Ammonia was first manufactured on an industrial scale in 1913.And replaced "Chile saltpetre“for munitions used in World War 1 (1914-1918).

川島博之氏提供

チリ硝石の代替第一次世界大戦

So called global population explosion depended onthe increase in grain production, which is expressed in unit crop (t/ha).　　　　　　 French Wheat 　出展 Michel & FAO

1,800 1,836 1,872 1,908 1,944 1,980 2,016 0

2

4

6

8

単収

　(t/ha)

川島博之氏提供

単収の増加は５倍

Phosphorous Fertilizer P as Phosphate

Inevitable For All Plants: To be used Nucleic Acids, ATP and membrane lipids.

Guano from Nauru, Depleted : Guano is a highly effective fertilizer due to its exceptionally high content of nitrogen, phosphate, and potassium, three nutrients essential for plant growth

P : Exist as a major component of the Earth. No.11 in the scale of abundance.

F : Coexisting F may be a problem. F is No.13 in the scale of natural abundance.

49

リン肥リン酸という物質

核酸・細胞膜脂質

P は多く存在

フッ素は有害物

Natural Abundance of Elements, Top 17 　

１位　酸素　　　　　　　 Oxygen 　　 ４６％２位　ケイ素　　　　　　 Silicon 　　　 ２８％３位　アルミニウム　　 Aluminum 　　 ８％４位　鉄　　　　　　　　 Iron 　　　　 ５％５位　カルシウム　　　 Calcium 　 ４％６位　ナトリウム　　　　 Sodium 　 ３％７位　カリウム　　　　　 Potassium 　 ２％８位　マグネシウム　　 Magnesium 　 ２％９位　チタン　　　　　　 Titanium ０．５％１０位　水素　　　　　　 Hydrogen ０．１５％１１位　リン　　　　　　　 Phosphorus ０．１％１２位　マンガン　　　　 Manganese ０．１％１３位　フッ素　　　　　 Fluorine ０．１％１４位　バリウム　　　　 Barium ０．０５％１５位　炭素　　　　　　 Carbon ０．０３％１６位　ストロンチウム Strontium ０．０３％１７位　イオウ　　　　　 Sulfur ０．０３％

50

Sustainability of Soil Maintenance and improvement of soil

quality in continuous cropping systems is critical to sustaining agricultural productivity and environmental quality.

Asian Rainforest are old and poor in minerals whereas the soils of the western Amazon (Ecuador and Peru) and volcanic areas of Costa Rica are young and mineral rich. 

Change in Rainfall may affect the status of soil, i.e. mineral contents and contents of organic components.

51

土壌は問題か

連作をする場合には確かに問題

地殻の古さによる

降雨の状況が変わると土壌へ影響

Shortage in Food Supply? 1. Insufficient Agriculture Field More than 1-2m of Sea Level Rise

Large Scale of Loss of Agricultural Land in several countries

Resident Area may be lost. -> Environmental Refugees -> Decrease in Food Supply

Draught in Turkey, Spain, USA, Australia Production of Wheat and other crops will

decrease. Local Temperature Change

Change in Suitable Crops -> Decrease in Supply

Fields optimum to certain crop move to colder area. Is it possible for farmers to move?

52

食糧不足は？

生産農地不足

2 ｍの海面上昇

農地・居住地の喪失

国はどこ

温度変化はどこでも

栽培最適地の北方向への移動

2. Severe safety requirement by citizens/consumers GMO(genetically modified organisms)

Issues for Soy, Corn etc. 　遺伝子組換作物 Is it Safe? Yes, safe if eaten. 　　食べるのは安全 Any environmental adverse side effects? Any abrupt change in productivity of crop?

As Japanese consumers, everybody wants to have “Zero Risk” environment without any Agrichemicals. Yield may be go down.

Even if Agrichemicals are safe for human, but is it safe for insects to help pollination? 53

消費者の要求

環境は？突然変異は？

日本で農薬をゼロにせよ？生産量は下がる

ミツバチのような受粉支援の昆虫は？

Adaptation with Skilled Forecast Average Rain Fall = Slight Increase Temperature will go up to some extent Agricultural Suitability of certain place

will be changed, but the other place will become good land for agriculture.

CO2 concentration increase =Some fertilizing effect

Area of farming land is about half of land suitable for agriculture.

If enough farmers in the new agricultural land, global supply of food will be enough. 54

予測力と適応力

二酸化炭素の施肥効果

使用可能な農地候補の半分を使用中

農民の数！多分大丈夫

It is a good strategy to have long perspectives

of the global changeas possible as we can, if we try to prepare for

unexpected changes of local situation.

55

想定外の変化に対して準備をしておくこと長期的な地球レベルの変化を予測することが重要

Theoretical Goal “To realize Steady State of the Earth

in 2100.” Three Conditions

1:Renewable Resources : Use only the amount naturally renewed.

2:Non Renewable Resources : Use No Energy resources. Recycle all Metals & Minerals perfectly using Renewable Energy.

3:Environmental Pollutant : Release only the amount within the capacity of the Earth. 56

理論上の解決法

定常状態を実現するそのための三条件

再生可能資源：再生の範囲内

地下資源を使うな完全リサイクル

汚染物：地球の処理能力以内

More Detailed Description by Herman Daily in 1971

1. Renewable Resources: Do not use renewable resources at higher speeds than the speed of regeneration.

Good for : Fishery, Forestry, 　 etc.

3. Wastes: Discard wastes Only at a speed less than the speed of reduction by the capacity of the Earth.

Including “Nuclear Spent Fuel” 57

ハーマン・デイリーの原則

再生速度以内で利用

漁業、林業など

地球の処理能力以内で廃棄

使用済み核燃料も

Continued 2. Non-Renewable Resources: Do not

use non-renewable resources at higher velocities than the velocity of conversion of non-renewable resources into renewable resources. = We have to use a part of non-

renewable resources such as oil to construct devices or equipment for renewable energy such as wind and photo voltaic, which can produce more energy than non-renewable energy consumed.

58

枯渇性資源は、再生可能資源に変換せよ

例：石油を使うなら、その一部で自然エネルギー機器を作り石油より多くの再生可能エネルギーを生み出せ

Practical Goal 　現実的な分かりやすいゴール

“ Use only the Energy from renewable resources 　 in 2100”

This will be 90% achievement to the theoretical goal.

It means the life of natural resources will be extended about 10 times.

It can be said, “Human Life Reach A New Stage”.

59

再生可能エネルギーだけ！ の２１００年

これで 90% 目標達成

資源の寿命が１０倍伸びる

人類は新しいステージに到達したと言える

Energy Innovation in the PastThe 5th will be the Ultimate One Energy Innovation from the view point

of Human History 1st ＝ Started to Use Fire 　　 500 thousand

Years 2nd ＝ Use Fossil Fuel 　 from

1800 3rd ＝ Use Electricity 　　　 　 from

1880 4th ＝ Other than Fossil Fuel

　　＝ Nuclear Energy 　　　　　　　 in 1943　　＝ PV cells, Wind full operation not yet 　

5th ＝ Steady State 　　 2100 or so

60

人類史上のエネルギーのイノベーション　５番目は究極

火

化石燃料

電気

原子力

再生可能エネルギーは未達成

定常状態の達成

Energy Balance of the EarthSolar Energy

xGlobal Energy Consump.

To SpaceReflection

Geothermal

Absorbed

Tidal

Moon

Kinetic EnergyPhotosynthesis

地球上のエネルギー使用量の１００００倍が供給されている

100% Renewable Energy Scenario by WWFhttp://www.wwf.or.jp/activities/lib/pdf_climate/green-energy/WWF_EnergyVisionReport_sm.pdf

62

2050 = too early to be realized. 　　 Need New Social Systems. No Technologies available so far to utilize unstable electricity.

2050 年は早過ぎる。不安定な電力を使いこなす技術、社会制度が不足

Conclusions No Possibility of Extinction of Homo-sapience

in spite of Limitation of the Earth.

Local Sustainability will be affected by global environmental changes including climate change, limitation of some resources and loss of biological diversities.

Crisis can be averted by prediction and management of environmental risks.

Possible solutions for global environmental issues must be discussed and proposed. 何が起きるか不確実！ 63

地球の限界のために人類が絶滅することは無さそう

地域の持続可能性はグローバルな持続可能性の影響を受ける。気候変動、資源の有限性、そして、生物多様性の喪失など

適切な予測と環境リスクの管理で危機は回避できる

グローバルな環境問題の解決法を提案することが必須