Mainstreet surveyed a random sample of 1,006 Saskatchewan debate watchers by Smart IVR™ on March 23rd, 2016. A mixture of landlines and cell phones were surveyed. Margin of error: +/- 3.09%, 19 times out of 20. Regional margins of error: Regina: +/-5.44%; Saskatoon: +/-5.25%; rest of Saskatchewan: +/-5.36%; 19 times out of 20. Results were weighed by geography, age and gender based on the 2011 Canadian Census.
PRINT EXCLUSIVE: POSTMEDIA NETWORK INC.
SASKATCHEWAN LEADERS’ DEBATE
VIEWERS SAY WALL WON DEBATE
March 23rd, 2016 (Ottawa, ON) – A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll finds Brad Wall won the Saskatchewan Leaders’ debate. The Mainstreet/Postmedia Poll has a margin of error of +/- 3.09%, 19 times out of 20.
All numbers contained in this report are for debate watchers only. These numbers are not for the general population.
“Brad Wall had a good night - 56% of Saskatchewan debate viewers say he won this night‘s debate” said Quito Maggi, President of Mainstreet Research. “While I found Cam Broten had a good debate the viewers did not agree. Only 32% declared him the winner.”
70% of Saskatchewan debate viewers expect the Saskatchewan party will win the election. More have a positive impression of Brad Wall than of Cam Broten.
“Mr. Broten came out of the debate with high negatives. Mr. Wall stayed cool throughout the debate which included a lot of cross-talk. While you could hear Mr. Broten more clearly during those segments it looks like this could have come across as too aggressive.”
“Debate watchers are voting for the Saskatchewan party but two numbers stand out. Among debate viewers there is a dead heat in Regina - that represents a real possibility for the NDP to pick up seats. Women are also much more likely to vote NDP than men among debate viewers. While the Saskatchewan party holds a wide lead among debate viewing men (40 points) they are in a dead heat with debate watching women, 41% to 40%,” finished Maggi.
About Mainstreet ResearchMainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
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Available for Interview from Ottawa: Quito Maggi, [email protected] more information: David Valentin, (514) 913-5524 - [email protected]
"Exclusive Mainstreet/Postmedia polls are protected by copyright. The information and/or data may only be rebroadcast or republished with full and proper credit and attribution to “Mainstreet/Postmedia”.
A2
Regardless of which party you happen to support, who do you think did the better
job in tonight's debate?
A3
56%32%
12%
Brad Wall Cam Broten Not Sure
Regardless of which party you happen to support, who do you think did the better
job in tonight's debate?
A4
CAM BROTEN
BRAD WALL
NOT SURE
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female
SAMPLE
62%
34%
4%
118
55%
37%
8%
162
54%
32%
14%
289
52%
25%
22%
437
69%
23%
7%
480
41%
43%
17%
526
Regina Saskatoon Rest of SKSaskatchewan
56%
32%
12%
1,006
45%
40%
15%
324
56%
30%
14%
348
60%
30%
9%
334
CAM BROTEN
BRAD WALL
NOT SURE
SAMPLE
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Brad Wall?
A5
UNFAVOURABLE
FAVOURABLE
NOT SURE
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female
59%
19%
22%
56%
33%
11%
58%
23%
19%
58%
22%
20%
66%
21%
13%
48%
28%
25%
Regina Saskatoon Rest of SKSaskatchewan
58%
24%
18%
43%
32%
25%
56%
29%
16%
64%
19%
17%
UNFAVOURABLE
FAVOURABLE
NOT SURE
58%24%
18%
Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Cam Broten?
A6
UNFAVOURABLE
FAVOURABLE
NOT SURE
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female
32%
54%
14%
34%
52%
14%
32%
47%
21%
31%
48%
21%
27%
58%
15%
39%
41%
20%
Regina Saskatoon Rest of SKSaskatchewan
33%
50%
17%
40%
36%
24%
31%
50%
18%
31%
55%
14%
UNFAVOURABLE
FAVOURABLE
NOT SURE
33%
50%
17%
Favourable Unfavourable Not Sure
And who do you think will win the provincial election on April 4th?
A7
70%
16%
3%1%
11%
NDPSK Party Liberal Green UD
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female
78%
12%
7%
0%
2%
69%
17%
2%
0%
12%
65%
20%
1%
1%
12%
66%
13%
1%
1%
20%
78%
13%
2%
0%
7%
60%
19%
4%
1%
16%
Regina Saskatoon Rest of SKSaskatchewan
70%
16%
3%
1%
11%
67%
17%
2%
1%
13%
72%
14%
3%
0%
11%
70%
16%
3%
1%
10%
NDP
SASK
Liberal
Green
Undecided
NDP
SASK
Liberal
Green
Undecided
And who do you think will win the provincial election on April 4th?
A8
And if you were to vote today, which party would you support?
A9
60
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
All Decided & Leaning
54%
30% 2% 1% 13%
61%
35% 3%
1%
And if you were to vote today, which party would you support?
A10
18-34 35-49 50-64 65+ Male Female
56%
30%
3%
0%
10%
53%
33%
2%
1%
11%
55%
31%
1%
2%
10%
52%
24%
3%
1%
20%
65%
22%
3%
1%
9%
41%
40%
2%
1%
17%
Regina Saskatoon Rest of SKSaskatchewan
54%
30%
2%
1%
13%
39%
40%
3%
2%
16%
54%
28%
4%
2%
12%
60%
27%
1%
1%
11%
NDP
SASK
Liberal
Green
Undecided
NDP
SASK
Liberal
Green
Undecided
And which party are you leaning towards voting for? (Undecided Only)
A11
14%
20%
1%
64%
NDPSK Party Liberal Green UD
Regardless of which party you happen to support, who do you think did the better job in tonight's debate?
Brad Wall of the Saskatchewan PartyCam Broten of the NDP
Not Sure
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Brad Wall?
FavourableUnfavourable
Not Sure
And do you have a favourable or unfavourable opinion of Cam Broten?
FavourableUnfavourable
Not Sure
And who do you think will win the provincial election?
Brad Wall of the Saskatchewan PartyCam Broten of the NDP
Darrin Lamoureux of the Liberal PartyVictor Lau of the Green Party
Not Sure
And if you were to vote today, which party would you support?
Saskatchewan Party led by Brad WallNDP led by Cam Broten
Green Party led by Victor LauLiberal Party led by Darrin Lamoureux
Undecided
And which party are you leaning towards voting for? (Undecided Only)
Saskatchewan Party led by Brad WallNDP led by Cam Broten
Green Party led by Victor LauLiberal Party led by Darrin Lamoureux
Undecided
SCRIPT
A12
ONLY WE CALLED
THE LIBERAL
MAJORITY.
Mainstreet Research | 132−2255B Queen Street East | Toronto | Ontario | M4E 1G3 | Canada
“I recommend "Raiders of the Lost Campaign Arc," released Oct. 18, because it’s an interview with a pollster that everyone who follows politics should hear. Quito Maggi, of Mainstreet Public
Research, was the only pollster I saw call the Liberal majority with such confidence, a week before we voted.
Maggi also has the distinction of being the guy who predicted the BC Liberals would win in 2013, in defiance of the majority of the polls.
His technique involves picking a true bellwether riding and polling it thoroughly. His explanation for how he does it is well worth a listen and should be required research for anyone running a
political campaign.” - Shannon Rupp, The Tyee, November 4th, 2015
Mainstreet is a national public research firm. With 20 years of political experience at all three levels of government, President and CEO Quito Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian public affairs.
Differentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet Research has provided accurate snapshots of public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP government in Alberta, a majority Liberal government in British Columbia and a majority Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has been the most accurate polling firm in several by elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral election. Most recently, Mainstreet was the only polling firm to correctly predict a Liberal majority government in the 2015 federal election.
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