Migration Where to go for what you need
Ms Baljit Bains, Demography & Policy Analysis Manager
Tel: 020 7983 4613
GLA Intelligence Unit
Data Analysis, Monitoring, Visualising , Understanding London…..– Population/Demographic information
– Crime analysis,
– Poverty & deprivation
– Education
– Crime
– Visualisations – mapping, dashboard
– Economics
– Evidence base for policy, strategy and service delivery
We need to talk about migration…
London is attractive to migrants– Other parts of the UK– European Union– Commonwealth countries– Elsewhere in the world
Over 300 languages spokenLondon is a massive travel hubLondon home to many MNC– Global trade and business connections
……………..……London the World City
We need to talk about migration…
The driver of much demographic change in London.
30+% of London’s population is born oversees.
Around 40+% of London’s working age population is born oversees.
56% of London births to mothers born outside the UK. (25% nationally)
Considerable variation across London but nowhere is immune to the impacts of migration
……………a better understanding is crucial
We need to talk about migration…
Most information from admin sources, surveys– Definitions can vary (long term, short-term)– Types of ‘migrant’ vary– Frequency of releases vary
Data source not designed to capture migration primary– Causes issues of interpretation– Figures are ‘different’– Misinformation, misinterpretation, misunderstandings
We need to talk about migration…
GLA primary interestTypes of migrants; EU, economics migrants, Flows information: trends, changes in natureMigration by reason: work, study, otherPopulation churn/turnover Migrant stock figuresMigrant characteristics: education, employment, housing, length of stay etcDiversity issuesPolicy impacts ie visa rule changes, studentsRole of London in global migration issues.
Key Definitions
Immigrant– Person arriving to take up residence in a country for at least 12 months.– Person with country of birth outside the UK.– Person with nationality/citizenship of a country outside the UK.
Emigrant– Person leaving their usual country of residence to take up residence in
another country for at least 12 months.
Migrant switcher– Person who intended to stay in a country for at least 12 months but left
sooner.
Visitor switcher– Person who intended to stay in a country for less than 12 months but stay
longer than a year.
Internal Migration Sources
NHS Central Register (NHSCR)
Patient Register Data Service (PRDS)– Both act as a proxy to internal migration.
– Requires registration with a GP
– Reliable for the young and old – need GP access.
– Less reliable for males aged 25-40 – do not register/re-register.
– List inflation problematic for oversees emigration
London: Internal Migration TrendsNHS Central Register Inter-Regional Moves
International Migration Sources
International Passenger Survey (IPS)– Responsibility of Office for National Statistics
– voluntary survey of people arriving and departing from the full set of ports and routes through/on which travellers can travel between the UK and overseas.
– The IPS is a continuous survey conducted 362 days a year.
– The survey has been conducted annually since 1961. Annual and quarterly publications have been produced since 1970 and monthly since 1993. Monthly data from the IPS are published, but a single quarter is the minimum period over which detailed analysis of the data can be made.
International Passenger Survey (IPS)
– Survey is intention based…these can change.– Excludes land routes between Ireland and the UK– Excludes Asylum seekers and their dependent.– Approximately 250,000 responding passengers per annum but only around 1-
2% of these report intentions that comply with definitions of migrants.– National Inflows for the 2004 statistics were based upon 2801 interviews and
for the outflow, on 755 interviews (standard error 4.7%).– Disaggregate to countries and figures can be based on very low numbers ie
estimate of a net 3,000 inflow from the Caribbean was based on the difference between 28 interviews in and 6 interviews out.
– data can only be analysed and tabulated by very gross aggregated categories of (for example) country of origin and citizenship, purpose of visit, and broad age groups.
– Migration Statistics Improvement Programme has implemented improvements, boosting surveys at regional airports, using other data sources to sense check IPS.
International Passenger Survey (IPS)
Long Term International Migration (LTIM)– Estimates produced by combining IPS, Home Office data on
asylum seekers, migration to and from Northern Ireland and adjustment for visitor and migrant switchers.
International Migration Sources…cont
Flag 4– International in-migrants who register with a NHS GP.– Added to records mid-year to mid-year.– Flag is lost once you move within the UK.
National Insurance Number Registrations (NINos)– NINos allocated to overseas nationals entering the UK.– Limited country level details is available.– Responsibility of DWP.– Only newly issued numbers are recorded.
UK and London: International Migration TrendsLong Term International Migration (LTIM)
UK: Accession 8 Migration Trends International Passenger Survey (IPS)
London: International Migration TrendsNational Insurance Number Registrations (NINOs)
England and London: International Migration TrendsGP Registrations: Flag 4
Spotlight on 2011 Census
Every 10 years.
Self completion.
Will provide count of residents and visitors in United Kingdom as at 27 March 2011.
Main counts of migrants are derived from question on person’s address one year before census day.
Gives address in UK, or country in rest of world.
Same question as 2001 but 2011 has specific tick box to identify student moves.
Spotlight on 2011 Census
Also have Country of Birth question for persons not born in UK. This is as in 2001, 1991 and 1981.
For 2011, additional question on time of most recent arrival in UK for these persons.– can be used to derive the length of time in UK for international
migrants.
– Confusing if time spent in other countries.
Spotlight on 2011 Census
New question on intention to stay for new migrants – can determine if migrants are short-term (less than 6 months/6
to 12 months) or long-term (one year or more).
Household questions also identify visitors to the UK and UK residents who were temporarily outside UK on Census Day.
Spotlight on 2011 Census
2011 census also identified persons living at a second address for part of the year. – Students at term time address v domicile address.
– Armed forces
– Boarders
Can improve the quality of migration flows derived from census.
Strengths of Census
Complete coverage of UK population.
Ability to produce very detailed results:– Very small local areas
– Detailed classifications eg country of birth based on write-in responses
– Ability to cross tabulate by range of topics: eg migrants by health and disability
Stable questions between censuses gives comparable figures over time.
…and weaknesses
Timeliness: main results from 2011 not expected until late 2012.
Self completion.
Frequency: snapshot once every ten years means some trends eg migration from A8 countries can be entirely missed.
Acceptability: is census still the right way to collect data
Future: ONS currently working on ‘Beyond 2011’programme.
Use of Census data in GLA demography
Themed AnalysisHistorical analysisGeographical AnalysisVisualisations: Maps and themed dashboards.Some outputs will be specially commissioned specifically for London. Timing of these not yet known.Detailed statistics on origins and destinations of migrants will be produced later (probably some time in 2013)Detailed census migration counts used as starting point for GLA migration models.Breakdowns by age and sex, ethnic group and country or region oforigin.
Publication of statistics from 2011 Census
July 2012 head counts stats by LA.
Univariate counts expected from late 2012
Counts of numbers of people/ households moving into and out of each area in the year before census day.
Counts of students at term-time address
For persons born outside UK:– Country of Birth
– Year of arrival/age on arrival in UK
Spotlight on APS
Annual Population Survey
Introduced in 2004
Major survey which comprises key variables from the Labour Force Survey (LFS)
The APS aims to provide enhanced annual data for UK, covering a target sample of at least 510 economically active persons for each Unitary Authority (UA)/Local Authority District (LAD) and at least 450 economically active persons in each Greater London Borough.
Spotlight on APS
Indicators include:– Age inc ages of dependent children
– Family unit and households inc dependents and relationships to HoH.
– Nationality and Country of Birth
– Length of stay inc separate responses for dependents and other household members.
– Disability
– Ethnic group
– Health (current main and past problems)
– Qualifications, education and apprenticeships
– Industry
– Occupation
Spotlight on APS
Access is via NOMIS for Labour Market specific tables
End user license available from Economic and Social Data Service.
Special license for APS from ESDS but restricted to approved researchers (approved by ONS)
London specific analysis reported by GLA.
Births (1982-2010): England & Wales and London
Births by CoB of parent
56% of London births to mothers born outside the UK. (25% nationally)
42% of national births ot non UK born mothers are in London. (34% of Londoners are born overseas, London destination for 30% of international in-migrants )
Newham was the local authority with the highest proportion of births to non-UK born women (76.4%)
Newham 76.4 Merton 55.8Brent 74.3 Lambeth 55.8Westminster 73.1 Barnet 55.6Kensington and Chelsea 70.8 Greenwich 53.7Ealing 69.9 Lewisham 52.6Harrow 68.1 Hillingdon 52.5Tower Hamlets 66.2 Hackney and City of London 51.9Haringey 64.8 Islington 51.8Hounslow 64.1 Wandsworth 48.3Waltham Forest 62.9 Croydon 47.4Camden 60.8 Kingston upon Thames 41.8Southwark 59.8 Richmond upon Thames 37.4Redbridge 59.3 Sutton 34.1Enfield 58.8 Bexley 28.9Barking and Dagenham 57.5 Bromley 25.9Hammersmith and Fulham 56.3 Havering 20.1
% Births to Overseas mothers
% Births to Overseas
mothers
Provisional vs Final Data
Provisional– ONS: “good early indication of migration trends”.
Final– Takes account of adjustments and updates to Civil Aviation
Authority and Department for Transport information.
– Adjustments and updates used to weight the observed data by the IPS.
Differences between the two are minimal
Data releases since May 2011
May 2011– Migration Statistics Quarterly Report– Provisional IPS and LTIM for YE September 2011
June 2011– Flag 4 for mid-2009 to mid-2010
July 2011– NHSCR for YE September 2010
August 2011– Migration Statistics Quarterly Report– Migration Statistics Improvement Programme (MSIP) update– Provisional IPS and LTIM for YE December 2011
October 2011– NHSCR for YE December 2010
November 2011– Migration Statistics Quarterly Report– Final IPS and LTIM for mid-year and calendar year 2010– NHSCR for YE March 2011
February 2012– Migration Statistics Quarterly Report– Provisional IPS and LTIM for YE June 2011– Quarterly NINo registrations to September 2011– NHSCR for YE June 2011
Future data releases to November 2012
March 2012– Final MSIP report
May 2012– Migration Statistics Quarterly Report and related data– Quarterly NINo registrations to December 2011
June 2012– Flag 4 for mid-2010 to mid-2011
August 2012– Migration Statistics Quarterly Report and related data
November 2012– Final IPS and LTIM tables for 2011– Provisional IPS and LTIM tables for YE March 2012
Plus additional migration data available in ONS Mid 2011 estimates (Sept 2012) and Subnational population projections (March 2012 and Oct/Nov 2012)
Scanning the horizon…
Changes in visa rules and immigration policy– Abolition Post study work route– Tighter criteria on Tier 3 and Tier 4 migrants
Changes to housing benefit and universal creditGlobal events that add to refugee and asylum numbers and their dependents.Impact of economic downturn both domestic and globally.Impact of tuition fees and changes to eligibility criteria for oversees students.
Website Sources
International migration:– http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/taxonomy/index.html?nscl=Interna
tional+Migration
Internal migration:– http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/taxonomy/index.html?nscl=Migrati
on+within+the+UK
Department for Work and Pensions (NINos):– http://research.dwp.gov.uk/asd/asd1/niall/index.php?page=ni
no_allocation
Website Sources
APS on NOMIS
http://www.nomisweb.co.uk/articles/605.aspx
APS from ESDS
http://www.esds.ac.uk/government/aps/
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