Predicting and Assessing Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services (PANCES)

(FY 2016-2020)

Shizuka HashimotoIntegrated Research System for Sustainability Science (IR3S),

The University of Tokyo

社会科学系の写真

The Environment Research and Technology Development Fund

Ministry of the Environment, Japan

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Trend of population

2

Pop

ulat

ion

(tho

usan

d)

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Population (thousand)

20-40. mil. decrease of pop. by 2050

96,205 89,526

104,433

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060

(thousand people)

Medium mortality/Medium birth rate

Low mortality/High birth rate

High mortality/Low birth rate

Population estimation(by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research)

Year

Trend of population and aging

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% o

f pe

ople

ove

r 65

Pop

ulat

ion

(tho

usan

d)

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5

10

15

20

25

30

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Population (thousand)

％ of people over 65

Societal challenges

Economic challenges

Increased dependence on oversea products

Ageing/depopulation

Unclear cadastral information

Rural-urban migration

Pressure of trade liberalization

Increase of alien species

ThreatsErosion of cultural heritage/indigenous knowledge

Human-wildlife conflict

Disaster due to poor land management

Loss of biodiversity

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Challenges and threats associated withland and ecosystems of Japan

Decline of agricultural price

Land abandonment

Road to PANCES:Relevant Assessments up till Today

Japan Biodiversity Outlook (JBO) (2008-2010)

• Conducted by the expert committee established by the Ministry of the Environment, Japan

• Focused mainly on the conditions and trend biodiversity with timeframe from 1960-2010

Japan Satoyama-Satoumi Assessment (2006-2010)

• Initiated by UNU as a follow-up SGA of MA

• Focused mainly on the conditions and trend of ecosystem services, relied mainly on statistics

• Timeframe: 1960-2050 with qualitative scenarios

Japan Biodiversity Outlook2 (JBO2) (2014-2015)

• 2nd round of JBO by the expert committee under the MoE

• Covered both biodiversity and ecosystem services

• No future projection nor scenario analysis

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Backed by Data

Without supporting data

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Backed by Data

Without supporting data

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Limitations of existing assessments

Limitations include but not limited to… Evaluation of cultural services

Ecosystem service’s contribution to human well-being

Valuation of total economic value of ecosystem services

Relationship between natural capital and ecosystem services

Implication of alternative development pathways (scenarios)

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Objectives of PANCES

Develop an integrated model of social-ecological systems to predict and assess natural and socio-economic values of natural capital and ecosystem services under different future scenarios of socio-economic conditions and policy options;

Design a new conceptual framework to promote multilevel governance of natural capital to maintain and improve “inclusive wellbeing”;

Examine effectiveness and applicability of the integrated assessment modelto other areas in Japan and beyond.

Objectives

Past related activities

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Framework of the PANCES Project

Drivers (direct & indirect)

Crises that biodiversity and ecosystem services are confronting in Japan

Crisis 1: Overuse

Crisis 4: Global changes

Crisis 3: Invasive spp.

Crisis 2: Underuse

Contribution to sustainable development and the inclusive wellbeing based on the mid-long term assessment and projection

<Social Changes>• Depopulation• Land use change• Underuse• Science and

Technology• Trade, etc.

< Assessment and projection of natural values from ecosystem services>

<Environmental Changes>• Climate change• Ocean acidification• Natural disasters, etc.

Theme 2. Terrestrial ESs Theme 3. Marine ESs

Theme 4.

Theme 1. Development of an integrated model of social-ecologicalsystems and scenario analysis

Feasibility study of other Asian areas

Provisioning

Assessment and projection of socio-economic values of ESs

Multilevel governance of natural capital and inclusive wellbeing

Regulating Cultural

Natural Capital

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Framework of PANCES Scenarios and Models

Demography & Industry Sub-model

Land Use Sub-model

Natural Capital

Sub-model

EconomicScience, 

TechnologySocial 

institutionsFood 

demandInternational trade, etc.

Key Driving Forces

Future Scenarios(sub-theme 1-1)

Basic Framework(sub-theme 1-2)

Climate Changes &

Ocean Acidification

Inclusive Well-being

Natural Values

Terrestrial Ecosystem

Services

Marine Ecosystem

Services

Param

eteri‐

zation

Tree traits

Policy Options / Multi‐level Governance (governance indicators, innovative funding mechanism)

Sensitivity  to climate changes

Adaptation  distribution capacity

Labor population by sector

Concentrated or distributed

Urban, green space, farm land, grassland, woodland, waterbody, coastal port

Potential capacity, actual human use

River‐basin interactions

Nutrients, sediments, creatures

Crop variety

Localized Inclusive  wealth index

Socio-Economic

Values

Local food culture,Ocean Health Index

Shadow value,Natural capital accounting

JSSA(2012)Forest stock, fishery stock

Potential capacity, actual human use

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Linking Models for AssessingEcosystem Functions/Services and HWB

(theme 1~4)

Terrestrial Ecosystem

Marine Ecosystem

Primary, secondary production capacity

Sensitivity  to climate changes

Adaptation  distribution capacity

Land UseAnthropogenic Assets Natural Capital

Changes in Land‐use and Land‐covers・Spatial predictions・Remote sensing data

Changes in Natural Capital・Natural capital stock (Forest, Agriculture, Marine resources), Statistics and Inventories  ・Census of Agriculture and Forestry 

Modelling ESs in Theme2 (Terrestrial)・3(Marine) , Scio‐economic valuations in Theme4

Demographic and Industrial Structures Sub‐model  Land Use Sub‐model

Natural CapitalSub‐model

Populations and labor force in urban, sub‐urban, rural area

Land‐cover and Land‐use: Urban, Agricultural land (paddy, crops and fruit farm), Bamboo, Managed forest, Natural forest, Grassland, Water surface (river, pond), harbor etc.

Stock assessment on Forestry, Agriculture, Fishery (see weed bed, coral reef, tideland etc.)

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Changes in Direct/Indirect Drivers・Population distribution, Industrial structures・Stochastic predictions

Haga et al. (2016）

2010 2050

Hashimoto (2016)

2010 2050 2010 2050

National Land Numerical Information(Future prospects)

Scenarios Scenarios Scenarios

Example of modeling exercises

Future Scenarios for Natural and Socio‐Economic Values of Natural Capital and Ecosystem Services

1) National-scale scenarios

2) Local scenarios at case study sites

• Develop national scenarios taking into account major challenges such as climate change/ocean acidification and demographic and socio-economic changes

• Employ Story-and-Simulation approach

• Develop participatory scenarios reflecting diverse views of local stakeholders, traditional and local knowledge

• Selected Sado Island as the pilot study area for participatory scenario exercise and organized a preparatory meetings with gov. officials for the exercise

SadoIslandNoto Peninsula

(relevance to urban areas)

Okinawa Islands

Hokkaido

© MOEJ

Preparatory meeting with officials of Sado 14

Multi‐level Nested Governance of Natural Capital

Local collaborations(Bottom‐up)

Local communities

NPOs

Multi‐level governance of natural capital

Stake holder

PANCES also explores a mechanism for cooperative management of natural capital based on nested collaboration among different stakeholders

Global/ Regional/ National

Local

Local gov’t Universities

Governments’ initiatives(top‐down)

UN

Regionalcommunities

Multinational companies

Stake holder

Nations

Aid agencies

Farmers, foresters, fishers

Stake holder

Urban residents

Stake holder

Co‐ops

Stake holder

Stake holder

Small enterprises

Stake holder

Stake holder

Int’lNGOs

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Expected Outputs and Outcomes

[Outputs] Inputs to CBD, IPBES regional and global assessments,

Ecologically or Biologically Significant Marine Areas (EBSAs) , and ecosystem-based climate change adaptation (IPCC).

Contributions to national and local biodiversity strategy action plans in Japan.

[Outcomes] Promote implementation of Sustainable Development Goals

(SDGs) and localization of Inclusive Wealth Index. Collaborate with international global environment research

initiatives such as Future Earth. Contribute to the establishment of Green Economy in Asian

region through efforts in International SATOYAMA Initiative. Contribute to revitalization of rural economy as Japan’s urgent

issue through developing new business models and multilevel governance of natural capital.

The National Biodiversity Strategy of Japan 2012‐2020

1st Asian Conference on Biocultural Diversity 

(27‐29 Oct. 2016)

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TimelineFY2016 FY2017 FY2018 FY2019 FY2020

Theme 1

Theme 2(Terrestrial)

・Theme 3(Marine)

Theme 4

Inputs to inter‐national env. policy

Inputs toCBD‐COP13 in Mexico

Contributionsto IPBES regional and global assessments

Organize an international conference andspecial feature of Sust. Sci. journal

Multi‐stakeholdersmeeting for science‐policy interface in Asia

E‐book publication andorganize final international conference

Design of future scenario and basic framework for future projection

Development and maintenance of the common information platform

Scenario analysis at both national and local scales

Provision of policy options

Science-policy-society interface

Quantitative assessment and mapping of natural values of natural capital and

ecosystem services

Development of tools and indicators for scenario analysis of natural capital and

ecosystem services

Analyze interaction between terrestrial and marine ecosystems at case study basins

Development of an integrated terrestrial-marine assessment model

Data collection and analysis of participatory management cases

Propose ILK-based conservation measures of natural capital

Development of analysis tools to assess socio-economic values

Propose policy options to improve socio-economic values of natural capital &

ecosystem services, and inclusive wealth

Data collection and analysis of governance cases and indicators

Conceptualize better multi-level governance of natural capital

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For more information about PANCES

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