Lubëck Octobre 2003
Patrice SALINI Michel KARSKY
Simtrans & Simtrans-Co2Simtrans & Simtrans-Co2
A freight transportation simulation modelA freight transportation simulation model
An emission permit policy analysis toolAn emission permit policy analysis tool
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SimTrans & Simtrans-Co2SimTrans & Simtrans-Co2
To model To apply To convince
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To modelTo model
Simtrans (developed in 1999-2000)
An attempt to analyze the dynamics of the freight transportation market in France (Road, Rail, Inland waterways)
Funded as a Research Program
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To applyTo apply
SimTrans-Co2 (2001-2002)
Explore the consequences of the Kyoto protocol and the implementation of an emission credit trade system
Commissioned by ADEME (National Environmental Agency)
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To convinceTo convince
Use of a posteriori causal loop diagrams for long term analyses
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To modelTo model
Simtrans is focused on land transportation and modal split
3 sectorsRoadRailInland Waterways
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To modelTo model
A Modal supply is a combination ofMeans (Capacity)ProductivityQuality
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To modelTo modelMeans (Capacity)Means (Capacity)
ProductivityProductivity
QualityQuality
truck capacity
road transport possibilities
road transport quality
rate of investment truck capacity obsolescence
~rate of interest
demand supply ratio
road transport productivity
productivity rate of change
quality rate of change
demand supply ratio
road transport conformity rate
merchandise damage rate
trucking average speed
road transport commercial offer
road transport margin
investment in road transport
obsolescence
road transport industrialization
Co2 constraint
~cost increase
average unit load
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To modelTo model
Modal split as a result of competition between different attractiveness
Attractiveness as a result of means, productivity and quality levels
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To modelTo model
AgriculturalAgriculturalproductsproducts
MetallurgicalMetallurgicalproductsproducts
GlobalGlobaldemanddemand
FoodFood
ConstructionConstructionmaterialsmaterials
OtherOtherproductsproducts
Chemicals &Chemicals &FertilizersFertilizers
EnergyEnergycomponentscomponents
General menuGeneral menu
Demand menuDemand menu
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To applyTo apply
Simtrans + + an analysis of the effect of the Kyoto protocol
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To applyTo apply
The Kyoto protocol aims at reducing the emissions of greenhouse gases responsible for global warming
In EU, the transportation sector is to blame for 28% of emissions of CO2
CO2 emissions from transportation are expected to increase by around 50% by 2010
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Source : GRID-Arendal in co-operation with the secretariat of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the 7th Conference of the Parties (COP-7) to the Convention, held in Marrakesh, Morocco 29th October to 9th November 2001.
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To applyTo apply
SimTrans-Co2 explores a C02 emission reduction trade system for trucks (inside the EU “Bubble”)
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To applyTo apply
Fuel consumptionFuel consumptionProductivityProductivity CapacityCapacity
Unit fuelUnit fuelconsumptionconsumption
InvestmentInvestment
Emission regulationsEmission regulationsand normsand norms
Co2 emittedCo2 emitted
NegociableNegociableemission permitsemission permits
TaxationTaxation
Warming effectWarming effectpolicypolicy
Fuel unitFuel unitcostcost
++
--++
++++
++
++++++
-- --
++++
++
Simplified causal diagram of Simplified causal diagram of Co2 and Emission Permit aCo2 and Emission Permit a
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Co2 Emission (ton)
1998
Emission trading has no impactEmission trading has no impact
To applyTo apply
2003 2009 2014 202020 000 000
30 000 000
40 000 000
1. No action
2. Emission credit
3. Gobal policy package
1
2
3
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To convinceTo convinceFeedback loop analysisFeedback loop analysis
Sector GrowthSector Growth
DemandDemandSupply/DemandSupply/Demandratioratio
Freight km offeredFreight km offered
CO2CO2
ProductivityProductivity
WarmingWarmingEffectEffectpolicypolicy
TaxationTaxation
NegociableNegociableEmission PermitsEmission Permits
Unit consumptionUnit consumption
Fuel consumptionFuel consumption
Fuel unit costFuel unit costAverage unitAverage unit
costcost
Labor unit costLabor unit cost
Unit marginUnit margin
Desired unitDesired unitmarginmargin
Average unitAverage unitpriceprice
SupplySupply
TransportTransport
CapacityCapacity
Average unitAverage unitloadload
Total authorizedTotal authorizedweightweight
InvestmentInvestment
Veh-KmVeh-Km
CongestionCongestion
RapidityRapidity
Max speedMax speed
InfrastructuresInfrastructures
++
--
++
--
++
--
++
++
++
++
++
--
++++
++
++
++
++
++
++
++
--
--
++
++ --
--++
++
++ ++
++
--
++
--
++++
--++
Other supplyOther supplysourcessources ++
++
EmissionEmissionRegulations andRegulations and
normsnorms++ ----
++
++
++
--
++
++
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To convinceTo convinceFeedback loop analysisFeedback loop analysis
Sector GrowthSector Growth
DemandDemandSupply/DemandSupply/Demandratioratio
Freight km offeredFreight km offered
CO2CO2
ProductivityProductivity
WarmingWarmingEffectEffectpolicypolicy
TaxationTaxation
NegociableNegociableEmission PermitsEmission Permits
Unit consumptionUnit consumption
Fuel consumptionFuel consumption
Fuel unit costFuel unit costAverage unitAverage unit
costcost
Labor unit costLabor unit cost
Unit marginUnit margin
Desired unitDesired unitmarginmargin
Average unitAverage unitpriceprice
SupplySupply
TransportTransport
CapacityCapacity
Average unitAverage unitloadload
Total authorizedTotal authorizedweightweight
InvestmentInvestment
Veh-KmVeh-Km
CongestionCongestion
RapidityRapidity
Max speedMax speed
InfrastructuresInfrastructures
++
--
++
--
++
--
++
++
++
++
++
--
++++
++
++
++
++
++
++
++
--
--
++
++ --
--++
++
++ ++
++
--
++
--
++++
--++
Other supplyOther supplysourcessources ++
++
EmissionEmissionRegulations andRegulations and
normsnorms++ ----
++
++
++
--
++
++
-
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To convinceTo convinceFeedback loop analysisFeedback loop analysis
+
Sector GrowthSector Growth
DemandDemandSupply/DemandSupply/Demandratioratio
Freight km offeredFreight km offered
CO2CO2
ProductivityProductivity
WarmingWarmingEffectEffectpolicypolicy
TaxationTaxation
NegociableNegociableEmission PermitsEmission Permits
Unit consumptionUnit consumption
Fuel consumptionFuel consumption
Fuel unit costFuel unit costAverage unitAverage unit
costcost
Labor unit costLabor unit cost
Unit marginUnit margin
Desired unitDesired unitmarginmargin
Average unitAverage unitpriceprice
SupplySupply
TransportTransport
CapacityCapacity
Average unitAverage unitloadload
Total authorizedTotal authorizedweightweight
InvestmentInvestment
Veh-KmVeh-Km
CongestionCongestion
RapidityRapidity
Max speedMax speed
InfrastructuresInfrastructures
++
--
++
--
++
--
++
++
++
++
++
--
++++
++
++
++
++
++
++
++
--
--
++
++ --
--++
++
++ ++
++
--
++
--
++++
--++
Other supplyOther supplysourcessources ++
++
EmissionEmissionRegulations andRegulations and
normsnorms++ ----
++
++
++
--
++
++
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To convinceTo convinceFeedback loop analysisFeedback loop analysis
Sector GrowthSector Growth
DemandDemandSupply/DemandSupply/Demandratioratio
Freight km offeredFreight km offered
CO2CO2
ProductivityProductivity
WarmingWarmingEffectEffectpolicypolicy
TaxationTaxation
NegociableNegociableEmission PermitsEmission Permits
Unit consumptionUnit consumption
Fuel consumptionFuel consumption
Fuel unit costFuel unit costAverage unitAverage unit
costcost
Labor unit costLabor unit cost
Unit marginUnit margin
Desired unitDesired unitmarginmargin
Average unitAverage unitpriceprice
SupplySupply
TransportTransport
CapacityCapacity
Average unitAverage unitloadload
Total authorizedTotal authorizedweightweight
InvestmentInvestment
Veh-KmVeh-Km
CongestionCongestion
RapidityRapidity
Max speedMax speed
InfrastructuresInfrastructures
++
--
++
--
++
--
++
++
++
++
++
--
++++
++
++
++
++
++
++
++
--
--
++
++ --
--++
++
++ ++
++
--
++
--
++++
--++
Other supplyOther supplysourcessources ++
++
EmissionEmissionRegulations andRegulations and
normsnorms++ ----
++
++
++
--
++
++
+
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To convinceTo convinceFeedback loop analysisFeedback loop analysis
Sector GrowthSector Growth
DemandDemandSupply/DemandSupply/Demandratioratio
Freight km offeredFreight km offered
CO2CO2
ProductivityProductivity
WarmingWarmingEffectEffectpolicypolicy
TaxationTaxation
NegociableNegociableEmission PermitsEmission Permits
Unit consumptionUnit consumption
Fuel consumptionFuel consumption
Fuel unit costFuel unit costAverage unitAverage unit
costcost
Labor unit costLabor unit cost
Unit marginUnit margin
Desired unitDesired unitmarginmargin
Average unitAverage unitpriceprice
SupplySupply
TransportTransport
CapacityCapacity
Average unitAverage unitloadload
Total authorizedTotal authorizedweightweight
InvestmentInvestment
Veh-KmVeh-Km
CongestionCongestion
RapidityRapidity
Max speedMax speed
InfrastructuresInfrastructures
++
--
++
--
++
--
++
++
++
++
++
--
++++
++
++
++
++
++
++
++
--
--
++
++ --
--++
++
++ ++
++
--
++
--
++++
--++
Other supplyOther supplysourcessources ++
++
EmissionEmissionRegulations andRegulations and
normsnorms++ ----
++
++
++
--
++
++
-