Weekly Chart BookAugust 2, 2013

Global Clients…Global Portfolios

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Accuvest Weekly Update

• Global Financial Conditions

• Global Financial Conditions have improved, stress has moderated nicely since the “Taper Tantrum”

• Macro Risk and Financial Market Stress have decreased since June 24th

• The VIX Index (implied S&P 500 volatility) closed @ 11.98, new 3 month lows

• The Economy

• Global Manufacturing PMI edged up 0.2 points to 50.8 in July, rounding out the eighth straight month of expansion (above 50)

• Developed economies, mostly the U.S. and Europe, are leading global expansion

• United Kingdom PMI rose to its highest level since March 2011

• Eurozone PMI climbed into expansion territory for the first time in two years

• Japan PMI dropped 1.6 points in July, the first decline this year and in-line with a recent slump in Industrial Production

• Nearly all the countries that posted PMI declines in July were emerging economies

• Of all the BRIC’s, only India remains in expansion territory, at 50.1

• Mexico and Turkey PMIs slipped into negative/contraction territory in July

• Relative to other emerging economies, Poland and the Czech Republic are showing economic strength

• Next week’s U.S. economic calendar includes data on ISM Non-Mfg, Mortgage Apps, and Trade Balance

• Interest Rates and Fixed Income

• 10 year US Treasury Yields closed the week at 2.60%, down from 2.70% on Thursday and up from 2.48% last week

• Investment Grade and High Yield Bonds sold off with Treasuries this week, down -0.4% and -0.1%, respectively

• Investment Grade credit spreads remain narrow, currently at 1.70%

• High Yield credit spreads remain narrow, currently at 3.40%, down from 4.42% on June 24th

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Accuvest Weekly Update

• Global Equity Markets

• The S&P 500, DJIA, DJ Transports, and Russell 2000 hit new all-time highs in July, it’s a U.S. bull market until proven otherwise

• The S&P 500 was up 4.9% in July, bringing YTD gains to 18.2%, capping the best first seven months of the year since 1997

• Post WWII data shows that after gaining at least 15% through July (12 cases), the S&P 500 has an average loss of -1.54% in August

• After diverging in H1 2013, the gap between equity prices and fundamentals has narrowed on better than expected economic data

• Recent market gains have come on zero earnings growth, and estimates for Q3 and Q4 U.S. earnings growth are 16%, and 27%

• Major Currencies

• All major currencies are weaker relative to the USD over the last 6 months

• MXN/USD @ 12.66, strengthening to close the week

• USD/EUR @ 1.33, strengthening from 1.28 on July 9th

• USD/AUD @ 0.89, weakening sharply on the week and making new lows

• JPY/USD @ 98.94, weakening from 98.21 last week, primary support @ 103.57

• Commodities

• Commodities (an equally weighted basket) remain in a cyclical downtrend, but recently made higher lows

• Gold @ $1312/oz., up from $1200/oz. on June 27th. If key resistance at $1330/oz. is broken Gold could rally to $1415/oz.

• The Gold to Gold Miners Ratio spiked this week, and is now back above its 50 Day Moving Average

• Crude Oil @ $106.94/barrel, struggling with resistance @ $108/barrel

disclosure: The opinions expressed in this Weekly Chart Book report are those of the author. The materials and commentary are strictly informational and should be used for research use only. This bulletin is not intended to provide investing or other advice or guidance with respect to the matters addressed in the bulletin. All relevant facts, including individual circumstances, need to be considered by the reader to arrive at investment conclusions that comply with matters addressed in this bulletin. Charts and information used in this report are sourced from Bloomberg.

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Accuvest ETF Heat Map

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US Financial Conditions

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Developed Markets

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Emerging Markets

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The VIX Index (S&P 500 Implied Volatility)

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Global Financial Stress Index

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Citi Macro Risk Index

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US Yield Curve (Current vs. 1 Month & 12 Months Ago)

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U.S. Treasury 10 Year Yield

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U.S. Treasury 10 Year Yield – Forecast

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Investment Grade Bond Prices

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Investment Grade Credit Spread (BBB – 10 Yr. UST Yield)

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High Yield Bond Prices

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High Yield Credit Spreads (HY – 10 Yr. UST Yield)

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30 Year Mortgage Rates

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World Equity Indices

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MSCI All Country World Index

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S&P 500 Index

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MSCI EAFE (Europe, Australia, Far East) Index

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MSCI Emerging Markets Index

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Global Heat Map – Sectors & Regions YTD

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S&P 500 Earnings Estimates (Forward 12 Months)

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Last week’s Economic Calendar

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Next week’s Economic Calendar

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Economic Surprise Monitor

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Economic Surprise Index (Deviation from Expectations)

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Global Manufacturing PMI

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Eurozone Manufacturing PMI

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US Manufacturing PMI

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World Currencies vs. U.S. Dollar (6 Month Spot Returns)

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World Currencies vs. U.S. Dollar (Spot Forecast: Q4 2013)

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US Dollar Index

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Euro €

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Japanese Yen ¥

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Australian Dollar

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Mexican Peso

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Emerging Market Currencies

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Global Commodity Prices

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Continuous Commodity Index

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Gold

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Gold to Gold Miners Ratio

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Crude Oil

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Gasoline Prices (Regular/Unleaded)