Our Common Future Under Climate Change, Paris, 9 July 2015
C. Turley1,6, P. Williamson2,6, D. Herr3, K. Isensee4 and E. Harrould-Kolieb5
1Plymouth Marine Laboratory, UK 2 University of East Anglia, UK 3International Union for Conservation of Nature, Germany 4IOC -UNESCO, France 5University of Melbourne, Australia 6UK Ocean Acidification research programme
CO2
Ocean acidification and its relevance to the UNFCCC
COP-21, Paris, 2015
Peters et al (2012) The challenge to keep global warming below 2⁰C. Nature Climate Change (online 2 Dec)
CO
2 in a
tmosphere
Hawaii South Pole
IPCC (2013) WG I, Summary for Policymakers, www.ipcc.ch
Ocean acidification is caused by CO2 emissions.
Peters et al (2012) The challenge to keep global warming below 2⁰C. Nature Climate Change (online 2 Dec)
CO
2 in u
pper
ocean
CO2 in the Ocean
CO
2 in a
tmosphere
IPCC (2013) WG I, Summary for Policymakers, www.ipcc.ch
Ocean acidification is caused by CO2 emissions.
Peters et al (2012) The challenge to keep global warming below 2⁰C. Nature Climate Change (online 2 Dec)
pH 8.12
8.09
8.06
IPCC (2013) WG I, Summary for Policymakers, www.ipcc.ch
pH in Ocean
CO
2 in u
pper
ocean
CO
2 in a
tmosphere
Ocean acidification is caused by CO2 emissions
Turley et al. (2006) C
aC
O3
Cla
y
Image_ J. Zachos
Acidification is 10 times faster than
at any time during at least the last 65
million years
If it continues at the same rate
(~RCP8.5) it will take 10,000’s yrs for
the chemistry to recover
It is happening now at a rate not seen for millions of years
Surface ocean pH change since the industrial revolution
1850
2100
IGBP, IOC, SCOR (2013) Ocean Acidification Summary for Policy Makers
Feely et al. (2008)
Some of our most productive fishing
and aquaculture areas may be the ones
most vulnerable to ocean acidification
impacts
Surface ocean pH change since the industrial revolution
1850
2100
IGBP, IOC, SCOR (2013) Ocean Acidification Summary for Policy Makers
Feely et al. (2008)
*
* It is already affecting
productive western N and S
American coasts with
important economic and
social impacts
Impacts will be strongest in coastal communities relying on marine productivity and coastal protection
Many of these are highly vulnerable and less able to adapt
Societal Impacts
Ocean acidification, warming, oxygen loss and SLR
are happening at the same time
Gattuso et al. Science 2015
If we follow a future
CO2 emissions of
RCP8.5 the risk to
many ecosystems
and the goods and
services they provide
will be very high
Stringent CO2
reductions of RCP2.6
would reduce the risk
but still be critical for
some ecosystems
Management options
decline with higher
CO2
Peters et al (2012) The challenge to keep global warming below 2⁰C. Nature Climate Change (online 2 Dec)
Substantial and sustained
investment, accelerated research,
and enhanced collaboration at a
global scale is required.
A global network of observations is
essential so we know what is
happening, where, and so people can
be prepared.
Western English Channel Observatory -PML
International scientific collaboration can help
Peters et al (2012) The challenge to keep global warming below 2⁰C. Nature Climate Change (online 2 Dec)
Coral reef - Dan Laffoley
The ultimate objective of UNFCCC :
“to achieve stabilization of
greenhouse gas concentrations in
the atmosphere at a level that
would prevent dangerous
anthropogenic interference with the
climate system.
[Article 2, UNFCCC Convention]
The ocean is clearly part of the
“climate system” defined by the
UNFCCC as:
“totality of the atmosphere,
hydrosphere, biosphere and
geosphere and their interactions”
The UNFCCC therefore has
responsibility for GHG impacts on
the ocean, including acidification
Ocean acidification and the UNFCCC
Peters et al (2012) The challenge to keep global warming below 2⁰C. Nature Climate Change (online 2 Dec)
Coral reef - Dan Laffoley
The ultimate objective of UNFCCC
continues to state:
“Such a level [of GHGs] should be
achieved within a time frame sufficient
to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally
to climate change, to ensure that food
production is not threatened and to
enable economic development to
proceed in a sustainable manner.” [Article 2, UNFCCC Convention]
The responsibility for preventing
dangerous impacts from ocean
acidification [and warming] therefore
lies in the remit of the UNFCCC
Ocean acidification and the UNFCCC
Although the UNFCCC has noted OA
on a number of occasions the word
“ocean” is not within the COP 21
negotiation text.
“Ocean” missing from COP-21 text
Coral reef Bermuda (c) A. Venn
Reducing CO2 emissions will make a difference
IGBP, IOC, SCOR (2013) Ocean Acidification Summary for Policy makers
We know that
reducing CO2
emissions urgently
will make a difference
and prevent many
dangerous
anthropogenic
impacts from OA
3.2–5.4oC
Global
temperature
increase
likely
by 2100:
0.9–2.3oC
After Bopp et al. 2013
Reducing CO2 emissions will make a difference
IGBP, IOC, SCOR (2013) Ocean Acidification Summary for Policy makers
3.2–5.4oC
Global
temperature
increase
likely
by 2100:
0.9–2.3oC
After Bopp et al. 2013
However, the current
2oC target (upper
limit) is:
an atmospheric
thermal target
based on CO2
equivalents
does not take into
account chemical
changes in the
ocean
Reducing CO2 emissions will make a difference
IGBP, IOC, SCOR (2013) Ocean Acidification Summary for Policy makers
3.2–5.4oC
Global
temperature
increase
likely
by 2100:
0.9–2.3oC
After Bopp et al. 2013
Additionally, the
current 2oC target
could allow
actions that would
not mitigate ocean
acidification, e.g.
some countries
could opt for
reduction of
non-CO2 GHGs
geoengineering
actions
proposed to
reduce
atmospheric
warming
We encourage the UNFCCC to take the
ocean into account at COP-21:
To recognise the high and indisputable risk OA represents
to anthropogenic interference with the climate system and to
include this in the COP-21 outcome documents and the post
2015 agenda
To positively note that impacts to the ocean brings clear,
undisputable additional rationale for countries to reduce CO2
emissions urgently
To recognise that OA will impact ecosystems and threaten
food production and sustainable economic development and
societies’ will need to adapt
To develop separate targets for CO2 and non-CO2 GHGs and
that these targets should account for both thermal and
chemical ocean impacts
To encourage global observations of OA internationally so
societies’ are forewarned