20170108先鋒週報經濟數據強勁美歐股市開紅盤

1. 2 0 1 8 / 01 /0 8

2. 7.1 1.2 1.5 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 : Bloomberg 2018/01/07 (%) (bp) 2.476 0.063 0.439 1 2.69 1.44 0.73 0.57 0.25 0.20 (0.39) (0.42) (0.56) (1) 0 1 2 3

3. 5.1 5.0 3.7 3.4 3.1 2.9 2.4 2.3 4.2 3.5 3.4 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.0 0.4 0.4 (0.5)(1) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 : Bloomberg 2018/01/07 MSCI MSCI (%) 3

4. : Bloomberg 2018/01/07 ==225= (%) 5.7 4.3 4.2 4.2 3.5 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.9 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.6 0.5 0.3 (0.0) (2.0) 0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 4

5. (5.7%) : (4.3%) :12PMI51.851.6 50.751.5 H 5

6. Bloomberg 6

7. (): Bloomberg 2018/01/07() 7

8. (): Bloomberg 2018/01/07() 8

9. 1.3 1.7 (0.2) (1.7) 2.5 1.7 1.3 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.2 (0.0) (0.2) (0.3) (3) (1) 1 3 CRB : Bloomberg 2018/01/07 (%) $1.20 113.05 91.94 $61.44 $1319.35 9 $63.37

10. : Bloomberg 10 01/01 () 12 8.9% 10.0% 9.6% 01/02 () Markit PMI () 12 55.1 55.0 55.0 Markit PMI () 12 60.6 60.6 60.6 Markit PMI () 12 63.3 63.3 63.3 Markit PMI () 12 56.3 57.9 58.2 Markit PMI () 12 58.8 59.3 59.3 PMI 12 51.5 50.7 50.8 01/03 () ISM 12 59.7 58.2 58.2 11 0.8% 0.7% 1.4% 01/04 () ADP 12 250k 190k 190k PMI () 12 54.0 - 54.2 01/05 () 12 148k 188k 228k 12 4.1% 4.1% 4.1% () 11 1.3% - 1.3% 11 1.3% 1.4% -0.1% 11 -50.5b -$47.8b -48.7b

11. 01/08 () , 11 0.0% 0.5% 12 0.5% 0.5% 12 114.8 114.6 01/09 () 11 1.8% -1.4% 11 11.0% 11.1% 01/10 () CPI 12 4.8% 5.8% PPI 12 1.9% 1.7% M2 12 9.2% 9.1% () 12 10,000 11,200 11 0.4% 0.0% 01/11 () 11 0.4% 0.5% PPI 12 0.2% 0.4% 01/12 () 12 6.3% 1.3% 12 11.3% 15.6% () 11 18,408 21,764 CPI 12 2.1% 2.2% 12 0.3% 0.8% : Bloomberg 11

12. 12 8S&P500FactSet(2017/12/22) S&P50010.9% 1/7 1/8~10 (1/101.5%) (1/113.25%)

13. 2018GDP2.5% IMF2018GDP1.9% ECB2019 13

14. 2017 Fed20183 ECB OPEC 14

15. 15

16. (%) MSCI 2156.60 2.53 4.01 7.08 12.72 2.53 20.95 2743.15 2.60 3.46 7.60 13.11 2.60 20.47 1560.01 1.60 2.52 3.30 10.18 1.60 14.10 397.35 2.10 2.08 2.02 4.52 2.10 8.73 304.24 2.19 3.48 4.08 8.53 2.19 16.59 225 23714.53 4.17 3.96 14.61 18.99 4.17 21.90 7466.56 2.62 6.57 9.93 21.50 2.62 37.69 3391.75 2.56 3.37 1.55 5.68 2.83 7.82 MSCI 1201.01 3.67 8.12 8.87 19.80 3.67 36.31 MSCI 608.80 3.74 7.13 9.51 19.92 3.74 41.81 MSCI 361.50 4.52 9.73 9.58 20.09 4.52 20.45 MSCI 2969.25 4.99 9.89 0.53 16.79 4.99 24.63 MSCI 302.90 2.30 11.78 13.27 21.78 2.31 22.16 Bloomberg 2169.61 0.26 0.22 -0.13 0.16 2.50 3.43 Bloomberg 248.28 -0.07 0.30 1.27 1.69 2.98 3.48 Bloomberg 2903.16 0.55 1.05 1.36 2.26 6.47 7.93 Bloomberg 354.35 0.03 0.50 0.40 3.31 9.62 10.45 Bloomberg 182.84 0.04 1.10 0.72 2.40 7.69 8.34 Bloomberg 316.99 -0.05 0.13 0.86 2.34 6.76 7.21 ETF 51.45 0.59 -0.92 0.06 3.71 12.71 12.14 Bloomberg 1095.78 0.24 0.67 0.36 2.34 8.14 9.19 Bloomberg 134.19 0.24 1.29 -0.89 2.74 12.44 13.54 : Bloomberg 2018/01/07 16

17. (%) () MSCI 231.24 3.44 8.32 10.47 20.13 3.44 4.66 MSCI 290.36 3.51 8.25 10.01 20.10 3.51 28.80 MSCI 129.75 1.96 3.34 6.49 11.07 1.96 19.60 MSCI 246.53 2.95 4.89 9.21 14.63 2.95 23.14 MSCI 238.62 0.36 1.51 5.67 5.76 0.36 14.25 MSCI 269.33 2.93 4.82 7.57 13.48 2.93 24.69 MSCI 229.83 4.16 4.76 11.04 21.40 4.16 39.29 MSCI 71.42 0.40 1.37 2.35 5.90 0.41 1.24 MSCI 126.51 -0.53 -4.35 -4.35 1.81 -0.52 9.73 MSCI 234.43 2.99 3.86 2.51 6.51 2.99 18.39 NBI 3454.08 2.90 3.46 -3.04 5.64 2.90 17.86 AMEX 198.13 3.03 11.82 -1.96 10.76 3.03 0.80 REITs FTSE 16931.37 -2.10 -1.82 -0.15 2.73 -2.10 4.33 REITs FTSE 1954.49 -2.30 -1.99 -1.05 1.45 -2.30 -0.59 REITs FTSE 1430.22 -0.04 1.13 7.22 6.82 -0.04 8.11 REITs FTSE 1856.53 0.38 3.72 7.76 10.67 0.38 9.39 (/) 1319.35 1.25 5.79 3.46 8.87 1.36 12.61 (/) 17.22 1.68 8.55 1.47 9.98 1.67 3.95 (/) 7121.00 -1.74 8.83 6.28 21.91 -1.74 27.62 (/) 67.62 1.12 6.89 21.84 45.09 1.35 18.69 (/) 61.44 1.69 7.48 25.08 39.39 2.04 14.19 CRB 193.45 -0.22 4.56 6.90 12.10 -0.22 -0.05 810.04 0.52 0.11 -0.12 -6.97 0.52 -6.09 : Bloomberg 2018/01/07 17

18. (%) 1.2029 0.20 2.20 2.49 5.55 0.22 13.79 113.05 -0.32 0.27 -0.44 0.76 -0.43 2.52 1.3571 0.43 1.32 3.23 5.33 0.40 11.54 0.9747 -0.04 1.76 0.44 -1.00 -0.12 4.08 1.2412 1.26 3.62 1.23 3.97 1.39 6.59 0.7864 0.70 4.51 1.23 3.18 0.50 6.72 1062.66 0.44 2.43 7.09 7.76 0.07 13.28 29.4950 0.80 1.86 3.19 3.76 0.94 8.99 6.4885 0.28 2.04 2.11 4.86 0.29 6.92 13416.00 1.03 1.10 0.86 -0.04 1.13 -0.31 63.3737 0.78 1.60 2.79 2.22 0.79 7.24 32.2000 1.15 1.47 3.80 6.14 1.32 10.88 1.3264 0.72 1.85 2.63 4.25 0.57 8.12 3.9975 1.21 2.45 6.07 7.69 1.42 12.21 49.8800 -0.06 1.36 2.76 1.89 -0.06 -0.59 12.3120 0.57 10.98 12.13 9.50 0.55 11.03 3.7353 1.66 2.65 -0.91 -3.42 1.66 -0.61 56.9297 1.32 3.81 2.34 5.77 1.29 5.59 3.4524 0.91 3.29 6.12 7.60 0.91 19.98 256.42 0.96 4.05 3.58 5.44 1.02 13.71 3.8568 0.84 2.13 1.03 4.04 0.92 10.24 3.2293 2.51 0.42 -2.33 1.85 2.58 -0.94 19.1793 2.44 -1.36 -2.70 -6.46 2.44 11.40 18.8830 -1.40 -8.43 -7.88 -9.34 -1.38 -15.46 : Bloomberg 2018/01/07 18

19. (%) () (bp) 30 2.8105 7.1 7.9 -8.0 -3.6 7.1 -13.4 10 2.4763 7.1 12.5 12.8 15.3 7.1 13.2 0.0630 1.5 1.7 1.7 -2.9 1.5 0.3 0.4390 1.2 11.9 -1.7 -3.1 1.2 19.6 0.7970 1.2 17.4 6.2 -2.0 1.2 0.5 2.0060 -1.0 30.0 -14.4 -15.3 -1.0 7.5 1.5220 -4.5 10.9 -17.7 -4.9 -4.5 4.2 1.9410 -0.2 5.6 -46.0 -103.7 -0.2 -209.0 3.2230 -8.0 -5.3 -19.1 -10.0 -8.0 -44.6 11.7700 10.0 -26.0 74.0 102.0 10.0 36.0 7.6400 0.3 -4.3 -2.5 -22.2 -82.0 -80.3 1.9000 -12.0 -18.0 -76.0 -121.0 -12.0 -135.0 8.7200 -0.1 -67.5 26.1 15.2 -20.4 -25.5 10.0710 1007.1 -18.4 17.3 -45.2 1007.1 -133.1 7.4680 -18.9 16.2 43.9 62.2 -18.9 -29.0 2.5150 4.8 1.0 14.5 23.8 4.8 45.8 6.1440 -17.5 -41.7 -38.6 -102.4 -17.5 -160.4 * 7.3330 0.7 27.3 60.4 78.2 0.7 94.6 2.3380 1.4 -3.2 6.3 -13.5 1.4 -34.6 : Bloomberg 2018/01/07 * 19

20. 2008 2014 -26.69% -5.61% -36.09% -7.28% -20.81% -- -18.82% -5.58% -21.11% -12.76% -9.52% -5.56% Bloomberg() 2017/10/30 % 20

21. 106022 (02)7708-8888 407225F-1 (04)3700-7988 360171 (07)972-1188 39 21

Economy & Finance

20170108先鋒週報 經濟數據強勁 美歐股市開紅盤

20170108先鋒週報經濟數據強勁美歐股市開紅盤