Macroeconomics 曼昆宏观经济学第七版(英文版-彩色)

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2. This page intentionally left blank 3. S E V E N T H E D I T I O NMACROECONOMICSN. GREGORY MANKIWHarvard UniversityWorth Publishers 4. Senior Publishers: Catherine Woods and Craig BleyerSenior Acquisitions Editor: Sarah DorgerSenior Marketing Manager: Scott GuileConsulting Editor: Paul ShensaSenior Development Editor: Marie McHaleDevelopment Editor: Jane TuftsAssistant Editor, Media and Supplements: Tom AcoxAssociate Managing Editor: Tracey KuehnProject Editor: Dana KasowitzArt Director: Babs ReingoldCover and Text Designer: Kevin KallProduction Manager: Barbara Anne SeixasComposition: TSI GraphicsPrinting and Binding: RR DonnelleyCover art: Barbara Ellmann WHATS YOUR ANGLE? Encaustic on Wood Panel 24 x 24 2005Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Number: 2009924581ISBN-13: 978-1-4292-1887-0ISBN-10: 1-4292-1887-8 2010, 2007, 2003 by N. Gregory MankiwAll rights reserved.Printed in the United States of AmericaFirst Printing 2009Worth Publishers41 Madison AvenueNew York, NY 5. about the authorPhoto by Deborah MankiwN. Gregory Mankiw is Professor of Economics at Harvard University. He beganhis study of economics at Princeton University, where he received an A.B. in 1980.After earning a Ph.D. in economics from MIT, he began teaching at Harvard in1985 and was promoted to full professor in 1987. Today, he regularly teaches bothundergraduate and graduate courses in macroeconomics. He is also author of thepopular introductory textbook Principles of Economics (Cengage Learning).Professor Mankiw is a regular participant in academic and policy debates. Hisresearch ranges across macroeconomics and includes work on price adjustment,consumer behavior, financial markets, monetary and fiscal policy, and economicgrowth. In addition to his duties at Harvard, he has been a research associate ofthe National Bureau of Economic Research, a member of the Brookings Panelon Economic Activity, and an adviser to the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston andthe Congressional Budget Office. From 2003 to 2005 he was chairman of thePresidents Council of Economic Advisers.Professor Mankiw lives in Wellesley, Massachusetts, with his wife, Deborah;children, Catherine, Nicholas, and Peter; and their border terrier, Tobin. v 6. To Deborah 7. Those branches of politics, or of the laws of social life, on which thereexists a collection of facts sufficiently sifted and methodized to formthe beginning of a science should be taught ex professo. Among thechief of these is Political Economy, the sources and conditions of wealth andmaterial prosperity for aggregate bodies of human beings. . . .The same persons who cry down Logic will generally warn you against Polit-ical Economy. It is unfeeling, they will tell you. It recognises unpleasant facts. Formy part, the most unfeeling thing I know of is the law of gravitation: it breaksthe neck of the best and most amiable person without scruple, if he forgets for asingle moment to give heed to it. The winds and waves too are very unfeeling.Would you advise those who go to sea to deny the winds and waves or to makeuse of them, and find the means of guarding against their dangers? My advice toyou is to study the great writers on Political Economy, and hold firmly by what-ever in them you find true; and depend upon it that if you are not selfish or hard-hearted already, Political Economy will not make you so.John Stuart Mill, 1867 8. brief contentsPreface xxiiiSupplements and Media xxxiipart IChapter 11 Aggregate Demand II: Applying theIntroduction 1 ISLM Model 311Chapter 12 The Open Economy Revisited: TheChapter 1 The Science of Macroeconomics 3 MundellFleming Model and theChapter 2 The Data of Macroeconomics 17Exchange-Rate Regime 339Chapter 13 Aggregate Supply and the Short-Run Tradeoff Between Inflation andpart IIUnemployment 379Classical Theory: The Economy in theChapter 14 A Dynamic Model of AggregateLong Run 43Demand and Aggregate Supply 409Chapter 3 National Income: Where It ComesFrom and Where It Goes 45Chapter 4 Money and Inflation 79part VChapter 5 The Open Economy 119Macroeconomic Policy Debates 443Chapter 6 Unemployment 163Chapter 15 Stabilization Policy 445Chapter 16 Government Debt and Budget Deficits 467part IIIGrowth Theory: The Economy in theVery Long Run 189 part VIChapter 7 Economic Growth I: CapitalMore on the Microeconomics BehindAccumulation and Population Macroeconomics 493Growth 191Chapter 17 Consumption 495Chapter 8 Economic Growth II: Technology, Chapter 18 Investment 525Empirics, and Policy 221Chapter 19 Money Supply, Money Demand, and the Banking System 547part IVEpilogue What We Know, What We Dont 567Business Cycle Theory: The Economyin the Short Run 255Glossary 575Chapter 9 Introduction to EconomicFluctuations 257Index 585Chapter 10 Aggregate Demand I: Building the ISLM Model 287viii | 9. contentsPreface xxiiiSupplements and Media xxxiipart I Introduction 1Chapter 1 The Science of Macroeconomics 31-1 What Macroeconomists Study 3 CASE STUDY The Historical Performance of the U.S. Economy 41-2 How Economists Think 7Theory as Model Building 7 FYI Using Functions to Express Relationships Among Variables 11The Use of Multiple Models 12Prices: Flexible Versus Sticky 12Microeconomic Thinking and Macroeconomic Models 13 FYI Nobel Macroeconomists141-3 How This Book Proceeds 15Chapter 2 The Data of Macroeconomics 172-1 Measuring the Value of Economic Activity:Gross Domestic Product 18Income, Expenditure, and the Circular Flow 18 FYI Stocks and Flows 20Rules for Computing GDP 20Real GDP Versus Nominal GDP 23The GDP Deflator 25Chain-Weighted Measures of Real GDP 25 FYI Two Arithmetic Tricks for Working With Percentage Changes 26The Components of Expenditure 27 FYI What Is Investment?28 CASE STUDY GDP and Its Components 28Other Measures of Income 29Seasonal Adjustment 312-2 Measuring the Cost of Living: The Consumer Price Index 32The Price of a Basket of Goods 32The CPI Versus the GDP Deflator 33 CASE STUDY Does the CPI Overstate Inflation?352-3 Measuring Joblessness: The Unemployment Rate 36The Household Survey 36 | ix 10. x | Contents CASE STUDY Trends in Labor-Force Participation 38 The Establishment Survey 39 2-4 Conclusion: From Economic Statistics to Economic Models 40 part II Classical Theory: The Economy in the Long Run 43 Chapter 3 National Income: Where It Comes From and Where It Goes 45 3-1 What Determines the Total Production of Goods and Services? 47 The Factors of Production 47 The Production Function 48 The Supply of Goods and Services 48 3-2 How Is National Income Distributed to the Factors of Production? 49 Factor Prices 49 The Decisions Facing the Competitive Firm 50 The Firms Demand for Factors 51 The Division of National Income 54 CASE STUDY The Black Death and Factor Prices 56 The CobbDouglas Production Function 56 CASE STUDY Labor Productivity as the Key Determinant of Real Wages 59 3-3 What Determines the Demand for Goods and Services? 60 Consumption 61 Investment 62 FYI The Many Different Interest Rates64 Government Purchases 64 3-4 What Brings the Supply and Demand for Goods and Services Into Equilibrium? 65 Equilibrium in the Market for Goods and Services: The Supply and Demand for the Economys Output 66 Equilibrium in the Financial Markets: The Supply and Demand for Loanable Funds 67 Changes in Saving: The Effects of Fiscal Policy 68 FYI The Financial System: Markets, Intermediaries, and the Crisis of 20082009 69 CASE STUDY Wars and Interest Rates in the United Kingdom, 17301920 70 Changes in Investment Demand 72 3-5 Conclusion 74 11. Contents | xiChapter 4 Money and Inflation 794-1 What Is Money? 80The Functions of Money 80The Types of Money 81 CASE STUDY Money in a POW Camp82The Development of Fiat Money 82 CASE STUDY Money and Social Conventions on the Island of Yap83How the Quantity of Money Is Controlled 83How the Quantity of Money Is Measured 84 FYI How Do Credit Cards and Debit Cards Fit Into the Monetary System? 854-2 The Quantity Theory of Money 86Transactions and the Quantity Equation 87From Transactions to Income 87The Money Demand Function and the Quantity Equation 88The Assumption of Constant Velocity 89Money, Prices, and Inflation 89 CASE STUDY Inflation and Money Growth904-3 Seigniorage: The Revenue From Printing Money 92 CASE STUDY Paying for the American Revolution934-4 Inflation and Interest Rates 94Two Interest Rates: Real and Nominal 94The Fisher Effect 94 CASE STUDY Inflation and Nominal Interest Rates95Two Real Interest Rates: Ex Ante and Ex Post 96 CASE STUDY Nominal Interest Rates in the Nineteenth Century 974-5 The Nominal Interest Rate and the Demand for Money 98The Cost of Holding Money 98Future Money and Current Prices 984-6 The Social Costs of Inflation 100The Laymans View and the Classical Response 100 CASE STUDY What Economists and the Public Say About Inflation 101The Costs of Expected Inflation 102The Costs of Unexpected Inflation 103 CASE STUDY The Free Silver Movement, the Election of 1896, and the Wizard of Oz 104One Benefit of Inflation 1054-7 Hyperinflation 106The Costs of Hyperinflation 106 CASE STUDY Life During the Bolivian Hyperinflation107The Causes of Hyperinflation 108 CASE STUDY Hyperinflation in Interwar Germany109 CASE STUDY Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe111 12. xii | Contents 4-8 Conclusion: The Classical Dichotomy 112 Appendix: The Cagan Model: How Current and Future Money Affect the Price Level 116 Chapter 5 The Open Economy 119 5-1 The International Flows of Capital and Goods 120 The Role of Net Exports 120 International Capital Flows and the Trade Balance 122 International Flows of Goods and Capital: An Example 124 FYI The Irrelevance of Bilateral Trade Balances 124 5-2 Saving and Investment in a Small Open Economy 125 Capital Mobility and the World Interest Rate 125 Why Assume a Small Open Economy? 126 The Model 127 How Policies Influence the Trade Balance 128 Evaluating Economic Policy 131 CASE STUDY The U.S. Trade D