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Uma avaliação crítica das estimativas de produto potencial para o Brasil

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Com a implantação do Sistema de Metas de Inflação (SMI) no Brasil, ganhou importância a necessidade de medir o hiato do produto, que segundo o modelo do Novo Consenso em política econômica, que serve de inspiração teórica para o SMI, é a principal causa da inflação no longo prazo. O presente artigo visa avaliar criticamente os artigos e estudos feitos pelas instituições oficiais brasileiras (como por exemplo BACEN e IPEA) e acadêmicos que estimam o produto potencial para o Brasil. Avaliaremos a razoabilidade dos resultados empíricos produzidos por essas estimações e a aderência à teoria do Novo Consenso, que é a base de sustentação do modelo do SMI. Conclui-se que (1) quanto mais exógeno e determinado por fatores de oferta (estoques de fatores, seu uso eficiente e em níveis que não aceleram a inflação) é o produto potencial estimado, menor é a aderência empírica, devido a presença de hiatos significativamente negativos e persistentes; e (2) a tentativa de remediar tal método utilizando filtros estatísticos acaba por tornar o produto potencial endógeno e dependente do andamento do produto e da demanda efetiva, o que vai de encontro a teoria do Novo Consenso que sustenta o modelo.

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Page 1: Uma avaliação crítica das estimativas de produto potencial para o Brasil

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Page 2: Uma avaliação crítica das estimativas de produto potencial para o Brasil

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Page 3: Uma avaliação crítica das estimativas de produto potencial para o Brasil

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Page 4: Uma avaliação crítica das estimativas de produto potencial para o Brasil

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Page 6: Uma avaliação crítica das estimativas de produto potencial para o Brasil

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Page 12: Uma avaliação crítica das estimativas de produto potencial para o Brasil

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Page 14: Uma avaliação crítica das estimativas de produto potencial para o Brasil

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Page 24: Uma avaliação crítica das estimativas de produto potencial para o Brasil

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