1. 2012 2011/2/28 2. 2012(RolandEmmerich)201220092012 3.
NASAnames2012mostabsurd movieever PublishedOnTueJan42011
EvenJohnCusackcouldntsave2012frombeingnamedthesilliestsciencefictionmovieofalltimebyNASAandtheScienceandEntertainmentExchange.,SarahMillar,TorontoStar.
NASA officialshavenamed2012
theapocalypticdisasterflickreleasedin2009thesilliestandmostscientificallyflawedfilm.Thehonours
werebestowedontheJohnCusackmovieataconferenceinCaliforniarecently,accordingtoareportinTheAustralian
newspaper.Andwhile2012
tookthetopspot,thereweremanyothercontendersonthelist.TheDayAfterTomorrow,TheSixthDay,Armageddeon,TheCore
andTheVolcano
werealsosingledoutfortheirscientificshortcomings.2012,NASAsays,istheworstofthebunch.Thefilmtellsthestoryoftheendoftheworld,asforecastedbytheMayancalendarwhichendsDec.21,2012.ThefilmmakerstookadvantageofpublicworriesaboutthesocalledendoftheworldasapparentlypredictedbytheMayansofCentralAmerica,whosecalendarendsonDecember21,2012,NASAseniorresearcherDonaldYeomans
toldTheAustralian.Theagencyisgettingsomanyquestionsfrompeopleterrifiedthattheworldisgoingtoendin2012thatwehavehadtoputupaspecialwebsite
tochallengethemyths.Wehaveneverhadtodothisbefore.Oneofthebiggestissueswiththefilmwasitsuseofneutrinoparticles,which2012
depictsasbeingcarriedtotheEarthonsolarflares,causingearthquakes,hurricanesandtsunamis.NASAsaysthatwhileneutrinoparticlesdoexistandhaveinteractedwithradiowaves,theycannotinteractwithphysicalsubstances.TheDayafterTomorrow
waspannedforitsdepictionofanacceleratedglobalwarming.Armageddon,whichreceivedNASAsupport
somethingtheagencynowregrets alsomadethelist.TheCore
(whichhadaskedforYeomans
toconsultonthefilm,butwasdeclinedafterhesawthescript)wascriticizedforitsdepictionoftheEarthscore.TheCore
wasatthetopofthelistuntil2012srelease.Itwasntallbadnews,though.TheU.S.governmentagencydidgivepraisetofilmsthatmanagedtogetthescienceright
namelyBladeRunner,Gattaca
andJurassicPark.http://www.thestar.com/entertainment/movies/article/915702nasanames2012mostabsurdmovieever
4. 2008(4.8%)4.4%300269265 257257249243250 237230214 219197200
188176165CO2156140 148150129120111100 5001990 1991 1992 1993 1994
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
2008 2009()5 5. CO22007(IEA)2009972007 OECD aCO2 276.18 22 28,962
13,001 1,236.34488.71 5,769.31 6,027.8522.86-6,6091,185127.7648.46
302.09 1,319.98 GDPb636.32- 61,428 32,361 3,620.16 1,065.75
11,468.00 9,911.78 GDPb27.84- 9.2927.31 28.3421.9937.96 7.51
101.58- 12,0295,497513.52 220.20 2,339.94 1,878.74MtoeCO2/12.08 18
4.3810.97 9.68 10.0919.10 4.57 4.81- 1.82 4.64 4.024.59 7.75 1.48
toe/b 0.43- 0.47 0.40 0.340.46 0.50 0.61CO2/CO2/ toe 2.51- 2.41
2.37 2.412.20 2.47 3.08a.CO2
b.(purchasepowerparity)2000International Energy Agency, Key World
Energy Statistics 2009. 6 6. 7. This is not fog.. You can see
PM2.5(1000) ... PM2.5Taichung City (2002-10-9 , PM2.5 = 22 g/m3) 8.
Visibility in Taichung City30Visibility (km)1501960 1967 1974 1980
1987 1994 2001 2008year 9. 187/6 5/615(km)12Visibility (km)
Visibility and9 6 PM2.5, Taichung 3 0 1/6 2/6 11/6 Jan-06 Mar-06
May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06160120PM2.5 (g m-3)160 y = -2.444x +
57.48 8040120PM2.5 (g m-3)0 80 Relative humidity (%) Jan-06Mar-06
May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06 Nov-06 100 40 (%)8000510 1520 60 (km),
2006Visibility (km), 200640 Jan-06 Mar-06 May-06 Jul-06 Sep-06
Nov-06 10. PM2.5>35 ug/m3, we cant see themountain1) 2003.6.13,
Tsaotun2) 2005.9.20, Tsaotun (O3 PSI=32, PM10 PSI=30, (O3 PSI=101,
PM10 PSI = PM2.5 =16 g/m3)69, PM2.5 =47 g/m3)KPP will decrease
visibility more than 200 m photo by 11. Pope, C. Arden III,
Burnett, R. T., Thun, M. J., Calle, E. E., Krewski, D.,Ito, k.,
Thurston, G. D., 2002. Lung Cancer, Cardiopulmonary Mortality,and
Long-term Exposure to Fine Particulate Air Pollution. The Journal
ofthe American Medical Association, 287 (9), 1132-1141.Each 10-g/m3
elevation infine particulate air pollutionwas associated
withapproximately a 4%, 6%, 8%,and 1% increased risk of all-cause,
cardiopulmonary, lungcancer mortality, and othersrespectively. 12.
Visibility and Cancer Incidence/Mortality,400Taichung City 80 350
() 70 (/10)3006025050 (km)20040150301002050 10 001961 1970 19801990
2000 2010 Year 13. PM2.5 vs. visibility => negative
correlationPM2.5 vs. mortality and incidence => positive
correlationA) PM2.5 vs. VisibilityB) Taichung city 40080 350 () 70
(/10) 30060 25050 (km) 20040 15030 10020 50 1000 1961 1970 19801990
2000 2010YearC) D) 400 80400 80 350 () 70350 ()70 (/10) (/10) 300
60300 60 250 50250 50 (km) (km) 200 40200 40 150 30150 30 100 20100
20 5010 50 100 00 0 1961 197019801990 2000 201019611970 19801990
2000 2010 Year Year 14. Sixth Naphtha Cracking complex Project
(6NCP) Kuokuang PetrochemicalComplex (KPC)6NCP 15. 20061/4/7/10 ()
PM2.5104 GTx CALPUFFCAMx 2g/M3 0.9g/m3 0.3g/m35g/M3() CAMx
PM2.50.3g/M3(1.5g/M3)(, 2011/1) 16. Female Cancer Mortality19931997
(P0) 19982002 (P1) 20032007 (P2) 17. Male Cancer
Mortality()19931997 (P0) 19982002 (P1) 20032007 (P2) 18. 10-2 19.
Adjusted Relative Risk (RR) betweenP2 and P0RR 1 (P2 - P0)/P0 P0:
Cancer Incidence/Mortality in 1993-1997 (before 6NCP operated) P1:
Cancer Incidence/Mortality in 1998-2002 (6NCP operated 1-5 y) P2:
Cancer Incidence/Mortality in 2002-2007 (6NCP operated 6-10 y) 20.
Highlycorrelatedbetween6NCPplumewithRelative(Increased)Riskoffemalecancermortality(R=0.281,p=2.58E07,n=325)16514260
21. 22 22. PM2.5 Pope, III, C. Arden Ph.D., Majid Ezzati, Ph.D.,
and Douglas W. Dockery, Sc.D. 2009. Fine-Particulate Air Pollution
and LifeExpectancy in the United States. Volume 360:376-386 January
22, 2009 23. PM2.5A decrease of 10 g per cubic meter in the
concentration of fineparticulate matter was associated with an
estimated increase in mean (SE) life expectancy of 0.610.20 year (P
= 0.004).PM2.510ug/m30.61 24. 2008 PM2.5 25. 15 33 Decreased life
expectancy 15 (day) 9 32 30 33 13 14 16 7 22 29 33 44 40 44 20 37
34 0 2 23 26. Typhoon Morakot (8 August 2009)27 27. SRES2 A2 A2 B2
28 28. IPCC AR4 A2A1BB1 scenarioCO2 2050CO2 A2 > A1B > B1 29
29. IPCC Special Reporton Emissions Scenarios -SRESA1Bsulfate
(kg/kg) 30 30. EarthsystemModel(ESM) (Bretherton,20??).31 31 31.
IPCC AR4-wg132 32. TW ESM (Taiwan Earth System Model) ECHAM5
(European Centre Hamburg Model, version-5) +SiT +DieCAST (TimCom)
33 33. TW ESM (ECHAM/SIT/DIECAST) Model Description (Current
Status)ECHAM5.4.00 is AGCM, running at various resolutions. A
high-resolution global earth system model (ESM) (~ 63 km
resolution) is used in here.DIECAST is OGCM. It is a 3-D global
ocean model with 2 degree/T31- T213 in the equator, covering the
latitude from 60 degree S to 60 degree N, with 31 levels. SIT is a
one-column snow/ice/ocean model with 41-level ocean+ 2-levelice +
2-level snow. It reads surface energy fluxes and wind stress
fromAGCM, and reads below surface (> 10 m depth) water
temperature,salinity, current from OGCM. Then, it computes SST.
Then, it passes SSTto drive AGCM and OGCM. It has 12 layers in the
upper 10 m of ocean.(Tu and Tsuang, GRL, 2005; Lan et al., TAO,
2010)34 34. ECHAM/SIT/DIECAST (beta) 2snow+2ice+41waterlevels
(Air/Snow/Ice/Thermocline)
VDIFF/SITECHAM(AGCM)19/31levels(T31T213)DIECAST(OGCM)31Levels(T31T213/2deg)35
35. 36 36. Decadal temperature fluctuations:Can radiative forcing
explain all? IPCC, 200737 37. Sea potential temperaturedomain: 110
135o E, 0 35o N; period: 1980 - 2008 ; month: 7-10 38 38. Sea
potential temperaturedomain: 110 135o E, 0 35o N; period: 1980 -
2008 ; month: 7-10 39 39. Sea potential temperaturedomain: 110 135o
E, 0 35o N; period: 1980 2008; month: 7-1040 40. Ocean heat content
is increasing!(Ishii and Kimoto, J. Oceanography, 2009)41 41.
Accumulated precipitation ( in mm and for an area with a radius of
5 degrees) along the track of the HTV for C20 and C21(T213)HTVs
reaching >33ms-1C20Totalincrease30% C21 MPIforMeteorology
(Bengtsson,2006)Hamburg42 42. ?Typhoon Morakot () (5-10 August
2009) (955hPa)43 43. GlobalSSTAnomaly(0C)andAnomalyTendency - El
Nino conditions (NINO 3.4 > 0.5oC) continued in the tropical
Pacific. - Weak negative PDO-like SST pattern in North Pacific
persisted. - Positive SSTA in the western and eastern tropical
Indian Ocean continued. - A tripole SSTA pattern presented in North
Atlantic. - Positive SSTA in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific
strengthened. - SSTA decreased along the west coast of North
America. - Positive SSTA in the central and western tropical Indian
Ocean weakened. - SSTA tendency in North Atlantic has a tripole
pattern. - SSTA decreased along the equatorial Atlantic.Fig. G1.
Sea surface temperature anomalies (top) and anomaly tendency
(bottom). Data are derived from the NCEP OI SSTanalysis, and
anomalies are departures from the 1971-2000 base period means. 44.
GlobalSSH/HCAnomaly(cm/oC)andAnomalyTendency - Negative PDO-like
pattern presented in SSHA and HCA in the North Pacific. - Positive
SSHA and HCA presented along a narrow equatorial belt, consistent
with the weak El Nino conditions. - SSHA and HCA were largely
consistent except in the tropical Indian Ocean where biases in
GODAS HC climatology were large (not shown). - Tendency of SSHA and
HCA was largely consistent except in the Gulf of Mexico where
observations were sparse.Fig. G2. Sea surface height anomalies
(SSHA, top left), SSHA tendency (bottom left), top 300m heat
contentanomalies (HCA, top right), and HCA tendency (bottom right).
SSHA are derived fromhttp://www.aviso.oceanobs.com, and HCA from
GODAS. 45. Does Kuroshio play the role?SST play a role, while
0-100m ocean temp play the role. 55mOceanTemp
105mOceanTempNCEPGlobalOceanDataAssimilationSystem(GODAS)(http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/GODAS/)46
46. Jan, 1957 47. 48 48. ECHAM+3D Ocean (npo0nnnn run) (IC +
nudging) ppt 49. ECHAM+3D Ocean (npo0nnnn run) (IC + nudging) WT 50
m 50. ECHAM+3D Ocean (npo0nnnn run) (IC + nudging) Latent Heat Flux
51. Typhoon Fanapi () (17-20 September 2010) (940 hPa) 52. Typhoon
Megi () (21 October 2010) (? hPa) 53. Major Findings 21
Kuroshio-Typhoon interaction and the warming trend of ocean heat
content areimportant mechanisms, causing the casualty rainfall in
S. Taiwan. The evaporated water within 10 deg-E./S.E. from Taiwan
is the source of the water. Warm water carried by Kuroshio provides
the additional energy for the evaporation. From the genesis
(formation) to the growth stage, typhoon acts like a hungrymonster
searching for food (energy, or high SST). It tracks the routes with
highSST. After it moves to the fertilization zone (regions with SST
> 30 degree C), theenergy in the ocean will be consumed by the
typhoon so that the typhoon willgrow even stronger with decreasing
SST. When there is little food (SST > 30 degreeC) left, the
typhoon cannot grow anymore. Then, the dynamics of the typhoon
andits surrounding atmosphere structures plays a key role to
determine the typhoontracks further. The above features are
validated by satellite microwave SST data. 54 54. 2050 Perspective
55 55. aSeawater Temp. (-43.6
m)TW/ESMIPCCAR4A1BA2B11980-20501980-1999 43.6 1.5-2
K2030~2050Climate Run (1980-1999) b1.5K56 56. 2050 40 3040 1.5 57.
21 (1997)50(20081997)(Y) 24216,4.2980841,4.234 13810,3.6774692,3.69
66578,3.5224913,3.47 17016,3.48 52213,3.28 31517,3.19
63615,3.421604,3.20 13603,3.3233212,3.14 3
57594,3.03y=4E06x+3.1014,R=0.045426869,3.05 41985,2.81
15332,2.8437573,2.85 58549,2.83
43084,2.6521792,2.6021000001000020000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000
8000090000(20081998)(NT) 58. 200819973.1;0.4; 20081998NT16043.2
24212.60.60.6 84079.31676.578.4 59. 60.
