Futuring and InnovationDr. Cynthia Calongne, Colorado Technical University

Agenda

What is a Futurist? Thoughts about the future Reflections on Forecasts Visioning Forecasting techniques The NMC Horizon Report Science fiction, science fact Research

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Who is a Futurist?

H.G. Wells – Professors of Foresight Early -- 40 years before academic futures

studies

Jules Verne – futurist and futurologist World Future Society TechCast

Are you a futurist?

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Rand Corporation, 1948

The Hudson Institute, 1961

Think Tanks

Futurist, nuclear scientist, and systems theorist

Predicted the rise of Japanas a world power

Thoughts about the Future “We can't solve problems by using the same

kind of thinking we used when we created them.” (Albert Einstein)

“Science without religion is lame, religion without science is blind.” (Albert Einstein)

Forecasts by Herman Kahn

1. Nuclear explosives for excavation & power

2. Weather and climate control

3. More reliable propaganda and education for affecting behavior

4. Human hibernation – months to years

5. Improved capability to change the sex of children & adults

6. Substantial increase in life expectancy and rejuvenation

7. High quality medical care for underdeveloped nations

8. Permanent manned satellite and lunar installations & travel

9. Life systems for terrestrial installations – outer space travel

10. Undersea installations and colonies

From p. 173 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan

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Forecasts by Herman Kahn 2

11. Automated grocery and department stores12. Extensive use of robots and machines performing mundane

tasks13. Chemical methods for improving learning and memory14. Greater use of underground buildings15. Very low cost buildings for home and business use16. Simulated, planned and even programmed dreams17. Inexpensive worldwide transportation of humans and cargo18. Inexpensive road-free transportation19. Artificial moons and other methods for lighting large areas at

night

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From p. 173 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan

Thoughts About the Future II "Any useful idea about the future should

appear to be ridiculous." (Jim Dator)

"A part of our future appears to be evolutionary and unpredictable, and another part looks developmental and predictable. Our challenge is to invent the first and discover the second." (John Smart)

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Visioning Activity

If you had unlimited Time, Money and Talent, what would you accomplish and acquire?

List 10 ideas for each category

Categories: Education, Job/Research,

Philosophical/Religious, Travel, Home

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Forecasting and Futuring Ideas Will Ferrell’s Tour of Tech That Never Took http://www.wired.com/magazine/2010/08/ff_future_ferr

ell/all/1

The World Future Society http://www.wfs.org/

Influx: 17 thoughts & ideas on forecasting the future from Paul Saffo

http://influxinsights.com/2008/technology/17-thoughts-and-ideas-on-forecasting-the-future-from-paul-saffo/

New York Times: And the Pursuit of Happiness, Maira Kalman blog

http://kalman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/07/30/can-do/ 11

Major Forecasting Techniques Technique

Delphi method Nominal group Case study S-Curve Correlation analysis Lead-user analysis Analytic hierarchy Systems dynamics Cross-impact analysis Relevance trees Scenario writing

Description Brainstorming Delphi - leader Analogous problems Looking beyond trends Past to future tech Leading edge users Forces influencing

development Dynamic relationships model Interrelated future events Goal trees & probability Alternate future views

From p. 167 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan [7]

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The Methods, Forces and Social Media Delphi Method – waves of independent contributions

The Forces: Influences on potential innovations Technological, economical, cultural, ethical, legal, political

Horizon Report over the years: cloud computing, semantic Web, mobile computing, virtual worlds, smart objects, game-based learning, eBooks and learning analytics

Social media culture shift – consumers become producers Tools: Twitter, YouTube, Facebook, Flickr, & Wikis Global awareness, creativity, community and collaboration

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The one Web

We are the computer

From Ted Talks, 2007 [8]

Political and Societal Influences “Futurists predict societal change.”

Political impact on futurism The Newtonian Socialists

Extending the Story of Stuff to John Stuart Mill’s taxation of goods and economic subsidization

http://www.storyofstuff.org/movies-all/story-of-stuff/

The Fortune Sellers by Sherden In 1990, 115 professors, writers and leaders

noted those who had ideas that were significant, fresh & profound Alvin Toffler Mikhail Gorbachev Nelson Mandela Arthur C. Clarke Gene Roddenberry Peter Drucker John Naisbitt David Suzuki Marilyn Ferguson Hazel Henderson

Top Ten Futurists from the 80s Alvin Toffler – Future Shock & 1st Univ futuring

course Mikhail Gorbachev – last head of state in the USSR Nelson Mandela – political activist - social change Arthur C. Clarke – 2001: A Space Odyssey Gene Roddenberry – Star Trek Peter Drucker- America’s Next Twenty Years John Naisbitt – Megatrends David Suzuki – Inventing the Future, environmental Marilyn Ferguson, Assoc of Humanistic Psychology Hazel Henderson – The Politics of Money

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Why do things work that way?

Bryan Alexander’s Twitter feed [5]

In hindsight, Berners-Lee wouldn’t use

http://

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Windmills as part of a sustainable future – Ted Talks [1]

At age 14, W. Kamkwamba built a windmillfrom a book, using a bicycle and 4 blades

It powers 4 bulbs and 2 radios with 12 watts

Next step: to build a 20-watt irrigation system

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SustainabilityChanging viewpoints as we gaze into the future

Stewart Brand on the 4 environmental heresies [2]

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A train moves down a narrow track as tables and shops recede into

the walls.

In a matter of seconds, a thriving marketplace

emerges. [2]

(6 minutes into the S. Brand video)

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Harmony

Cities are green

Stewart Brand onTed Talks

Bangkok train – co-existingwith the marketplace [2]

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The Influence of Social Media

Disaster Response

May 2008 Sichuan Earthquake 90,000 lost, schools destroyed

Community

Turbo Tax chat 40% of customer questions were answered by other customers with the highest accuracy rate in 24 years

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The Great Firewall of China – successful censorship of social media [4]

Media is global, social, ubiquitous & cheapMost of the media is no longer produced by professionals [4]

-Twitter, YouTube, Flickr, Facebook- The influence of social media

Photos and Twitter’s micro bloggingnews broadcast real-time information on the aftermath of China’s earthquakes

June 2, 2009 - China blocked access to Twitter, Flickr, and Hotmail two days before the anniversary of the Tiananmen Square protests

“The tools don’t get socially

interesting until they get technologically boring.”

[4]Consumers become producers

The same tools support them. People listening all over the world

Twitter announced the quake first

During the previous quake, China announced it 3 months

after it happened.

Clay Shirky – How social media can make history

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Perception

Global and poignant [3]

Broadcasting the news

as it is happening [4]

Technology Forecasters Evolution

Scientific Discovery Inventions Science Fiction Futurology Tech Forecasting

Think Tanks Rand Corporation

Forecasters Forecast International

Futurists Einstein Inventors Jules Verne H.G. Wells Herman Kahn

Dr. Strangelove

www.rand.org/

www.forecastinternational.com/

From p. 160-166 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan [7]

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Japan’s Technology Forecasts Characteristics

Structured approach Organized Firms, universities

Feedback loops Chief strategists (MITI)

Micromanagement

ERATO projects

Directing Japanese R&D investments

Bottom-up view, begins with Firms Universities, research

institutes National associations

Long term vision Govt ministries, MITI, JRDC

Long term technology forecasts Science & Tech Agency Institute of Future Technology Economic Planning Agency JICST

From p. 160-166 The Fortune Sellers by W. Sherdan [7]

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Matt Purkeypile on a PracticalQuantum Computer Programming Framework [6]

Quantum ComputingResearch

Web Services Proposal DefenseBy Paul Yanzick

Communicating by voice, local chat text, instant messages and visually.

Includes a meeting log for easy reference.

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Real and Virtual Meetings

Blended reality meetings & collaborative work in 2006MacArthur Foundation panel from Harvard and MIT

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This is not your grandmother’s internet

Researchers and game designers

- Explore the potential

- Imagine breakthrough ideas

- Create transformations

New horizons in game simulationand virtual world research

Blending social media and virtual worlds

Research consortium

Global Learning Forum

Exploring the Future in SL

Collaboration in a worldwide community Architecture (AWG) Cultural venues Second Life groups Educational networks Co-author papers

Learning extends beyond the classroom Seminars Symposia Scientific programs Research &

Development

Present your research, collaborate with other scholars, network and share ideas, and advance the state of technology.

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Gazing Into the Future

Web science research initiative Multidisciplinary approach to emerging media Focuses on technology, tools, behavior and Web

engineering

For more information, visit: What is the Web Science Initiative

http://webscience.org/

Proposed curriculum and courses offered around the world http://webscience.org/wiki/Curriculum

The Tetherless World & TW Research Constellation http://tw.rpi.edu/wiki/Main_Page http://tw.rpi.edu/launch/

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Resources Teaching using emerging media

http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/

Visual tour of social media & virtual worlds http://www.slideshare.net/lyrlobo/presentations

Animoto videos from social media and game simulation research http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/2009/09/global-learning-forum-event-tour.html

http://animoto.com/play/giF9IkshVTXZ3bewYUsXnA http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/2009/09/game-simulation-tour-in-second-life.html

http://animoto.com/play/ktooen8b0XqwLp6HnNEGtA http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/2009/09/animoto-video-second-life-summer-09.html

http://animoto.com/play/z2TLLCwEoOt2qonSa5S5Gw

Constitution Day, Graduation Party – How music changes a video http://ctusoftware.blogspot.com/2009/10/how-music-changes-video.html

Constitution Day, Graduation party 2009 – original music http://animoto.com/play/15T3PngF3l68010ryw24SQ Remix http://animoto.com/play/joPGETsdYQBdcLqIlCwTkQ

Questions? Contact Cynthia Calongne on Facebook & at 719-337-1526 (cell); email calongne@pcisys.net Lyr Lobo in Second Life; Twitter: lyrlobo; Skype: Lyr Lobo; Slideshare: lyrlobo

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Lyr Lobo in Second Life

[1] William Kamkwamba on building a windmill http://www.ted.com/talks/william_kamkwamba_on_building_a_windmill.html

[2] Stewart Brand proclaims 4 environmental ‘heresies’ http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/stewart_brand_proclaims_4_environmental_heresies.html 1.3 million people around the world – move to town each week!

[3] Kdingflickr’s photostream - China’s biggest earthquake in 32 years http://www.flickr.com/photos/hzdkl/tags/2008chinasbiggestearthquakein32years/

[4] Clay Shirky how social media can make history http://www.ted.com/talks/clay_shirky_how_cellphones_twitter_facebook_can_make_history.htm

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[5] Bryan Alexander ‘s Twitter Feed http://tinyurl.com/yhdeo5q on Berners-Lee http://technology.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/tech_and_web/article6872873.ece

[6] Matt Purkeypile - an Animoto video on Quantum Computing using Cove http://mpurkeypile.blogspot.com/2009/08/animoto-video-of-cove.html

[7] Sherdan, H. (1999). The Fortune Sellers. The Big Business of Buying and Selling Predications. Wiley, New York.

[8] Kelly, Kevin. The Next 5000 Days of the Web. http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/

kevin_kelly_on_the_next_5_000_days_of_the_web.html36

Videos and References

The Story of Stuff http://www.storyofstuff.org/movies-all/story-of-stuff/

Stewart Brand proclaims 4 environmental ‘heresies’ http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/

stewart_brand_proclaims_4_environmental_heresies.html

1.3 million people around the world – move to town each week!

Clay Shirky how social media can make history http://www.ted.com/talks/

clay_shirky_how_cellphones_twitter_facebook_can_make_history.html

Matt Purkeypile - an Animoto video on Quantum Computing using Cove http://mpurkeypile.blogspot.com/2009/08/animoto-video-of-cove.html

Kelly, Kevin. The Next 5000 Days of the Web. http://www.ted.com/talks/lang/eng/

kevin_kelly_on_the_next_5_000_days_of_the_web.html

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