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2. PROBLEM SOLVING AND DECISIONMAKING SKILLS . Dr Abrahim Althonayan +966505856800 / +447904159720 [email protected] Dr Abrahim Althonayan2 3. Problem Solving & Decision Making 4. "In any moment of decision the best thing you can do is the right thing, the next best thing is the wrong thing, and the worst thing you can do is nothing." (attributed to Theodore Roosevelt) 5. Course objectivesAcquire analysis solving and decision-making skills and techniques.Learn the various steps and tools of analyzing and making decisions.Learn skills on how to be creative and an initiator.Acquire skills and developing an action plan.5 6. Course Contents 1. Background 2. Types of Decisions 3. Problem and Cause Analysis 4. Go/No Go Decision 5. Criteria Based Decision 6. Situation Analysis 7. Action Plan Analysis6 7. Course Contents 8. Problem Solving 9. Situation Analysis 10. SWAT Analysis 11. PEST Analysis 12. Summery7 8. : Definitions Problem Solving the process of overcoming obstacles to achieve a goal. : . Decision Making involves making a choice among alternatives.. : 9. Good decision-making requires a mixture of skills: creative development and identification of options, clarity of judgement, firmness of decision, and effective implementation. 10. Rule 10 /9010 11. Types of Decisions The types of decision making managers make: Routine Emergency Strategic / Operational 12. Management Theories Theory Y Theory X Theory Z 13. Decision-making Process The Decision-making is the thinking process managers use every day to make decisions, which vary in importance from insignificant to critical and far-reaching. NEED-- A reason for making a decision.Organize -- Arranging existing information and any additional information gained during fact-finding. Gather-- Seeking specific additional information to determine about the situation; Fact finding. 13 14. Decision-making Process Analyse /-- Studying the organizedEvaluateinformation to determine its meaning in relation to the needConclude-- Making a tentative decision which appears to meet the need.Check-- Carrying out a reality check designed to establish whether the tentative decision will meet the need and whether its consequences are acceptable.Decision -- Rendering judgments, taking action or committing oneself to a course of action. 14 15. Situation SITUATION NEEDDECISIONProblem and cause AnalysisWhats happening and why?Actual causeGO / NO GO DecisionsShould I or Shouldnt I?Yes or noCriteria-based Decisions Situation Analysis Action plan AnalysisWhich one? Where do I start? How can I implement my decisionBest Alternative Top Priority actions Taking Actions and keeping Track15 16. Need Analyze Cause of AccidentsDecision Cause ( metal fatigue)Need Consider alternative courses of action to prevent recurrence of causeNeed Schedule Resources to implement course of actionDecision Choice of course of actionDecision Schedule (how it will be done)16 17. Examining Our DecisionQuality of DecisionVery PoorPoorAverageGoodVery Good17 18. Examining Our Decision Evaluating Information Drawing Conclusions Checking Conclusions DecidingObjectivity Vision InitiativeFailing to identify what is significant Jumping to conclusions Failing to check conclusions Either impetuously taking action or procrastinatingClearly identifying and accurately weighing significant information Reaching a tentative conclusion which reflects all the information Carefully checking whether the initial conclusion holds up Making a firm commitment to a course of actionAllowing personal feeling and past experience to adversely affect decisions Viewing one's own world very narrowly and ignoring the impact of decisions on others Letting things ''slide''Carefully analyzing information and placing one's own feelings and experience in proper perspective Continuously expanding one's view and considering the impact of decisions on others Taking the lead and remaining proactive18 19. Problem and Cause Analysis Jumping to Conclusions If rightIf wrong Save time waste time Problem solved Problem not solved Problem probably gets worse Danger of related things going wrong19 20. Management SequenceAnalysis Decide Plan Control 20 21. Cause AnalysisDecision Guide NEEDObjectivityVisionInitiativeInformation Base DESCRIPTION OF NEED OBJECTIVITYVisionINITIATIVEGuidelines Describe the need in terms of: Whats happening and why?What personal feelings or past experience might reduce your objectivity? How can you keep these in proper perspective? What broader or longer-range issues are related to this situation? How can you take these into account? What barriers to or opportunities for taking action exist in this situation? What can you do about these?21 22. Cause Analysis INFORMATIONQUESTIONCause Analysis SIGNIFICANT INFORMATIONEvaluateConcludeCONCLUSION ( Probable cause)CheckCHECKDEGISIONDECISION (Actual cause)What information do you already have? __ What occurred? __ circumstances surrounding the situation ? What additional information do you need? __ How can this information be gathered ? ( separating the information into categories helps create a better understanding of it.) What factors could have contributed to the cause ? __ changes ? __ connections ? __ trends ? __ external comparisons? __ unique features ?What is the most probable cause? Does it account for all the symptoms? How can you check your conclusion quickly and inexpensively? __ laboratory tests? __ previous records? __ check with specialist? __check with people is similar situations? ( Make sure the checking itself will not have negative consequences.)if check confirms the cause. You are ready to consider whether you need to take further action.? What impact did Objectivity, vision and initiative have on your decision 22 23. Chart Is Dimension What. (Identity)Related Facts *On what item is the performance-gap observed? *what exactly is the deviation?Competitive Facts *On which other item could the performance-gap be observed but was not?Where. (Place)*where else (geographically) could the deviation be observed but was not?When. (Time)Volume. Magnitude)*where is the deviation observed? (geographically) *where on the item is the deviation observed? *When is the deviation first observed? (Pattern) *When else in the items productcycle is the deviation first observed?*When else could the deviation be observed but was not? (what other pattern?) *when else in the items productcycle could the deviation be first observed but was not?*How extensive is the deviation? *How many items are faulty? *How big is the deviation on each item? *What is the trend?*How extensive could the deviation be but was not? *How many items could have been affected but were not? *How big could the deviation be on each item but was not? *What other trend could have been observed but was not? 23 24. Go/No Go Decision Decision Guide NEEDInformation Base DESCRIPTION OF NEEDObjectivityOBJECTIVITYVisionVisionInitiativeINITIATIVEGuidelines Describe the need in terms of :Should I or shouldnt I?What personal feelings or past experience might reduce your objectivity? How can you keep these in proper perspective?What broader or longer-range issues are related to this situation? How can you take these into account?What barriers to or opportunities for taking action exist in this situation? What can you do about these?24 25. Go/No Go Decision INFORMATION QUESTIONEvaluateGo/No Go Decisions PROS / CONSConcludeCONCLUSIONCheckCHECK/ RISKS How can Risks be minimized?What information do you already have? __ Current situation? __ proposed situation ? What additional information do you need? __ How can this information be gathered? (Separating the information into categories helps create a better understanding of it.) Divide factors into pros and cons. Weight factors with up to three plusses or minuses. Consider the balance of plusses and minuses and reach a tentative decision. How can you check the validity of your conclusion? __ Can it be implemented on a small scale? __ Can you check with other people? What are the possible risks? __ What could happen if you go ahead/dont go ahead? __ What effects could this have on goals, people or plans? What can you do to minimize the risks?DEGISIONDECISIONIf you decide to go head, you need to consider what happens next. For example, you may need to choose between alternatives or prepare a plan.? What impact did Objectivity, vision and initiative have on your decision 25 26. Go/No Go Decision PROS+TotalCONS-TotalConclusion Check/Risks DecisionHow can risks be Minimized26 27. CheckingConcludeNo (Too Risky, try another conclusion)Check (What could go wrong?)Can the risks be minimized?DecisionYES risks acceptable27 28. Criteria Based Decisions Decision Guide NEEDObjectivityVisionInitiativeInformation Base DESCRIPTION OF NEED OBJECTIVITYGuidelines Describe the need in terms of:Which one? What personal feelings or past experience might reduce your objectivity? How can you keep these in proper perspective?VisionWhat broader or longer-range issues are related to this situation? How can you take these into account?INITIATIVEWhat barriers to or opportunities for taking action exist in this situation? What can you do about these?28 29. Criteria Based Decisions INFORMATION QUESTION Criteria-based Decisions CRITERIA/ ALTERNATIVESEvaluateConcludeCONCLUSION CheckDEGISIONCHECK/ RISKS How can Risks be minimized?DECISIONWhat factors(criteria) do you need to consider? __ What do you want from your final choice? Performance capabilities ? Physical characteristics? __ What will others want from your choice? __ What minimum requirements must be met? __ What resources can your expend? __ What do you want to changes in the current situation? __ What undesirable effects do you want to avoid? __ What policies or future changes do you need to considers? W

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