Problem solving & decision making slide v1

بسم الله الرحمن الرحيم

وحل القرارات اتخاذ مهاراتالمشكالت

PROBLEM SOLVING AND DECISION-MAKING SKILLS

Dr Abrahim Althonayan 2

. عبدالعزيز بن محمد بن إبراهيم . د عبدالعزيز بن محمد بن إبراهيم دالثنيــــانالثنيــــان

Dr Dr Abrahim AlthonayanAbrahim Althonayan+966505856800 / +447904159720+966505856800 / +447904159720

[email protected]@gmail.com

Problem Solving &

Decision Making

"In any moment of decision the best thing

you can do is the right thing, the next best

thing is the wrong thing, and the worst

thing you can do is nothing." (attributed to

Theodore Roosevelt)

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Course objectives

• Acquire analysis solving and decision-making skills

and techniques.

• Learn the various steps and tools of analyzing and

making decisions.

• Learn skills on how to be creative and an initiator.

• Acquire skills and developing an action plan.

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Course Contents

1. Background

2. Types of Decisions

3. Problem and Cause Analysis

4. Go/No Go Decision

5. Criteria Based Decision

6. Situation Analysis

7. Action Plan Analysis

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Course Contents

8. Problem Solving

9. Situation Analysis

10. SWAT Analysis

11. PEST Analysis

12. Summery

تعريف: Definitions

• Problem Solving – the process of overcoming

obstacles to achieve a goal.

• : المشكالت لتحقيق عمليةحل العوائق على التغلب

األهداف.

• Decision Making – involves making a choice

among alternatives.

• : القرارات .اتخاذ بدائل عدة بين من اإلختيار

• Good decision-making requires a mixture of skills: creative development and identification of options, clarity of judgement, firmness of decision, and effective implementation.

Rule 10 /90

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Types of Decisions

The types of decision making managers make:

• Routine

• Emergency

• Strategic / Operational

Management Theories

Theory Y

Theory X

Theory Z

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Decision-making Process

The Decision-making is the thinking process managers use every day to make decisions, which vary in importance from insignificant to critical and far-reaching.

NEED -- A reason for making a decision.

Organize -- Arranging existing information and any additional

information gained during fact-finding.

Gather -- Seeking specific additional information to determine about the

situation; Fact – finding.

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Decision-making Process

Analyse / -- Studying the organized

Evaluate information to determine its meaning in relation to the need

Conclude -- Making a tentative decision which appears to meet the need.

Check -- Carrying out a reality check designed to establish whether the tentative decision will meet the need and whether its consequences are acceptable.

Decision -- Rendering judgments, taking action or committing oneself to a course of action.

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Situation

SITUATION NEED DECISION

Problem and cause AnalysisWhat’s happening and why? Actual cause

GO / NO GO Decisions Should I or Shouldn’t I? Yes or no

Criteria-based Decisions

Which one? Best Alternative

Situation AnalysisWhere do I start? Top Priority actions

Action plan Analysis

How can I implement Taking Actions and my decision keeping Track

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Need – Analyze Cause of Accidents

Decision – Cause ( metal fatigue)

Need – Consider alternative courses of action to prevent recurrence of cause

Decision – Choice of course of action

Need – Schedule Resources to implement course of action

Decision – Schedule (how it will be done)

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Examining Our Decision

Very Poor Poor Average Good Very Good

Quality of Decision

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Examining Our Decision

Evaluating InformationDrawing ConclusionsChecking ConclusionsDeciding

Failing to identify what is significantJumping to conclusionsFailing to check conclusionsEither impetuously taking action or procrastinating

Clearly identifying and accurately weighing significant informationReaching a tentative conclusion which reflects all the informationCarefully checking whether the initial conclusion holds upMaking a firm commitment to a course of action

ObjectivityVisionInitiative

Allowing personal feeling and past experience to adversely affect decisionsViewing one's own world very narrowly and ignoring the impact of decisions on othersLetting things ''slide''

Carefully analyzing information and placing one's own feelings and experience in proper perspectiveContinuously expanding one's view and considering the impact of decisions on othersTaking the lead and remaining proactive

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Problem and Cause Analysis

Jumping to Conclusions

If right

• Save time

• Problem solved

If wrong

• waste time

• Problem not solved

• Problem probably gets worse

• Danger of related things going wrong

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Management Sequence

Analysis

Decide

Plan

Control

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Cause Analysis

Decision Guide NEED

Information BaseDESCRIPTIONOF NEED

GuidelinesDescribe the need in terms of: What’s happening and why?”

Objectivity OBJECTIVITYWhat personal feelings or past experience might reduce your objectivity?How can you keep these in proper perspective?

Vision Vision What broader or longer-range issues are related to this situation?How can you take these into account?

Initiative INITIATIVE What barriers to or opportunities for taking action exist in this situation?What can you do about these?

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Cause Analysis

Evaluate

INFORMATION

QUESTION

Cause AnalysisSIGNIFICANT INFORMATION

What information do you already have? __ What occurred? __ circumstances surrounding the situation ?What additional information do you need? __ How can this information be gathered ?( separating the information into categories helps create a better understanding of it.)What factors could have contributed to the cause ? __ changes ? __ connections ? __ trends ? __ external comparisons? __ unique features ?

Conclude CONCLUSION( Probable cause)What is the most probable cause?

Does it account for all the symptoms?

CheckCHECKHow can you check your conclusion quickly and inexpensively?__ laboratory tests?__ previous records?__ check with specialist?__check with people is similar situations? ( Make sure the checking itself will not have negative consequences.)

DEGISION DECISION(Actual cause)if check confirms the cause. You are ready to consider

whether you need to take further action.

What impact did Objectivity, vision and initiative have on your decision ?

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Chart Is

DimensionRelated FactsCompetitive Facts

What.(Identity)

*On what item is the performance-gap observed?*what exactly is the deviation?

*On which other item could the performance-gap be observed but

was not?

Where.(Place)

*where is the deviation observed? (geographically)*where on the item is the deviation observed?

*where else (geographically) could the deviation be observed but was

not?

When.(Time)

*When is the deviation first observed? (Pattern)*When else in the item’s product-cycle is the deviation first observed?

*When else could the deviation be observed but was not? (what other

pattern?)*when else in the item’s product-cycle could the deviation be first

observed but was not?

Volume.Magnitude)

*How extensive is the deviation?*How many items are faulty? *How big is the deviation on each item? *What is the trend?

*How extensive could the deviation be but was not?

*How many items could have been affected but were not?

*How big could the deviation be on each item but was not?

*What other trend could have been observed but was not?

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Go/No Go Decision

Decision Guide NEED

Information BaseDESCRIPTIONOF NEED

GuidelinesDescribe the need in terms of :”Should I or shouldn’t I?”



Initiative INITIATIVE What barriers to or opportunities for taking action exist in this situation?What can you do about these?

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Go/No Go Decision

Evaluate

INFORMATION

QUESTION

Go/No GoDecisions PROS / CONS

What information do you already have? __ Current situation? __ proposed situation ?What additional information do you need? __ How can this information be gathered?(Separating the information into categories helps create a better understanding of it.)Divide factors into pros and cons.Weight factors with up to three plusses or minuses.

Conclude CONCLUSIONConsider the balance of plusses and minuses and reach a tentative decision.

CheckCHECK/ RISKSHow can Risks be minimized?

How can you check the validity of your conclusion? __ Can it be implemented on a small scale?__ Can you check with other people?What are the possible risks?__ What could happen if you go ahead/don’t go ahead? __ What effects could this have on goals, people or plans?What can you do to minimize the risks?

DEGISION DECISIONIf you decide to go head, you need to consider what happens next. For example, you may need to choose between alternatives or prepare a plan.

What impact did Objectivity, vision and initiative have on your decision ?

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Go/No Go Decision

PROS+CONS-

TotalTotal

Conclusion Check/Risks How can risks be MinimizedDecision

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Checking

Conclude Check (What could go

wrong?)

Decision

No(Too Risky, try

another conclusion)

Can the risks be minimized?

YES risks acceptable

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Criteria Based Decisions

Decision Guide NEED

Information BaseDESCRIPTION

OF NEED

GuidelinesDescribe the need in terms of:”Which one?”



Initiative INITIATIVE What barriers to or opportunities for taking action exist in this situation?

What can you do about these?

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Criteria Based Decisions

Evaluate

INFORMATION

QUESTION

Criteria-basedDecisions

CRITERIA/ALTERNATIVES

What factors(criteria) do you need to consider? __ What do you want from your final choice?

Performance capabilities ?Physical characteristics?

__ What will others want from your choice? __ What minimum requirements must be met?

__ What resources can your expend? __ What do you want to changes in the current situation?

__ What undesirable effects do you want to avoid? __ What policies or future changes do you need to

considers?What are the alternatives ?

__ Do they already exist/need to be created?Separate criteria into essential and useful.

Weight useful criteria with one, two or three plusses.Rate extent to which each alternative meet the criteria.

Conclude CONCLUSIONSum up plusses and determine which alternative best meets the criteria.

CheckCHECK/ RISKSHow can Risks be minimized?

Identify possible risks.__ What are the areas of weakest fit with the criteria?

__ What could go wrong?__ what effects could this have on goals, people or plans?

What can you do to minimize the risks

DEGISION DECISIONSelect the alternative which

__ best meet the criteria and __ has an acceptable level of risk.

What impact did Objectivity, vision and initiative have on your decision?

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Impact Of Poor Decisions

Minorday-to-day decisions

Low impact

Major long-range decisions

High impact

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Impact Of Poor Decisions

Minorday-to-day decisions

Low impact

Major long-range decisions

High impact

Degree of care required In arriving decision

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Deciding What We Want Before We Start Looking

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Criteria Based Decision

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Reactive :

Time spent solving problem:• Events control you • As you solve today’s problems, tomorrows are growing • You make little or no real progress• You spend most of your time “fighting fires”

Proactive Time spent developing opportunities:

• You control events • Your effort goes into preventing tomorrow’s problems• You have a definite feeling of progress • You have enough time to do the things you enjoy

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Crucial Vs. Urgent

Crucial and urgent

Crucial not urgent Urgent not crucial Neither crucial

nor urgent

Examples

Investigating an industrial accident

Determining future staffing needs

Handling a customer complaint

Handling routine correspondence

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Action Plan Analysis

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In the space below separate, priorities and locate your major job concerns.

PRIORITISELocate Necessary Process

Key Situational Variable

Critic.Urgent.Growth.

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Situation Analysis

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Situation Analysis

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Situation Analysis

In the space below list the potential problems with regard to each critical step. After doing so, prioritise them by

considering the probability of the problem occurring and the impact if it does.

PRIORITY

Potential ProblemProbableImpact

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Situation Analysis

In the space below modify your action plan by adding the major preventive and contingency actions.

StepActionWhoStartFinishRemarks

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Situation Analysis

Decision Decision

AnalysisAnalysis

Decision Analysis

Systematic procedures

Making choices

Considering factors for choice to succeed

Decide what will satisfy success factors

Consider risks

Elements of a good choice

Objective level

Specific factors

Understanding of what alternative can produce

Evaluation of alternatives

Decision Analysis Steps

1. State decision objective

2. Identify decision criteria

3. Classify decision criteria

4. Generate alternatives

5. Evaluate alternatives

6. Assess risks

7. Make the decision

Action Plan Action Plan

AnalysisAnalysis

Action Plan Steps

1. Action plan statement

2. Develop action plan steps

3. Select critical steps

4. Identify potential problems

5. Prioritize potential problems

6. Determine probable causes

7. Determine preventive & contingent actions

8. Modify action plan

Recognise The Situation:

What keeps me from doing the best work I can?

What is the present situation?

Separate:

What are the specific concerns?

• Performance-gaps

• Matters of choice

• Future trouble

Prioritise:

Criticality (High/Medium/Low)

Urgency (High/Medium/Low)

Growth (High/Medium/Low)

Locate:

Problem Analysis

Decision Analysis

Action Plan Analysis

Plan Necessary Action:

Who?

What?

Where?

When?

How?

Situation Situation

AnalysisAnalysis

Situation Analysis Steps

1. Recognize situation

2. Separate concerns

3. Prioritize concerns

4. Locate necessary process

5. Plan necessary Action

The Six-Step Rational Model

• Define the Problem

• Identify decision criteria

• Weight the criteria

• Generate alternatives

• Rate each alternative on each criterion

• Compute the optimal decision

SWOT Analysis:

• Strengths

• Weaknesses

• Opportunities

• Threats

6-M Analysis

• Manpower

• Machinery

• Methods

• Materials

• Money

• Minutes

Fishbone Diagram

Problem

Methods

MaterialsManpower

Machines

Force Field Analysis

Cite objective, goal, target, problem,need:

Driving Forces

Restraining Forces

Forces favoring the change

Forces resisting the change

{Equilibrium or current status}

Is / Is Not Analysis

IsIs Not

WhatWhat is the area or object with the problem?

What is not the area or object with the problem?

Symptoms

What are the symptoms of the problem?

What are not the symptoms of the problem?

WhenWhen is the problem observed?

When is the problem not observed?

WhereWhere does the problem occur?

Where does the problem not occur?

WhoWho is affected by the problem?

Who is not affected by the problem?

PEST analysis

Political:• ecological/environmental issues

• current legislation home market

• future legislation

• European/international legislation

• regulatory bodies and processes

• government policies

• government term and change

• trading policies

• funding, grants and initiatives

• home market lobbying/pressure groups

• international pressure groups

• wars and conflict Dr Abrahim Althonayan

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PEST analysis (Continue)

Economic• home economy situation

• home economy trends

• overseas economies and trends

• general taxation issues

• taxation specific to product/services

• seasonality/weather issues

• market and trade cycles

• specific industry factors

• market routes and distribution trends

• customer/end-user drivers

• interest and exchange rates

• international trade/monetary issues Dr Abrahim Althonayan

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PEST analysis (Continue) Social• lifestyle trends

• demographics

• consumer attitudes and opinions

• media views

• law changes affecting social factors

• brand, company, technology image

• consumer buying patterns

• fashion and role models

• major events and influences

• buying access and trends

• ethnic/religious factors

• advertising and publicity

• ethical issues Dr Abrahim Althonayan

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PEST analysis (Continue) Technological• competing technology development

• research funding

• associated/dependent technologies

• replacement technology/solutions

• maturity of technology

• manufacturing maturity and capacity

• information and communications

• consumer buying mechanisms/technology

• technology legislation

• innovation potential

• technology access, licencing, patents

• intellectual property issues

• global communications Dr Abrahim Althonayan

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The Situational Leadership

Dr Abrahim Althonayan

66

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Problem Problem

AnalysisAnalysis

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Conditions of Problem Solving

Possess skills

Experience success

Be rewarded

Not fear failure

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Problem Structure

1. Action Plan Statement:

• what is to be done?

• what are the desired results?

realistic

timely

2. Develop Action Plan Steps:

figure-out step-by-step actions

determine time-schedule

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Problem Structure

3. Select Critical Steps:

potential disasters

high risk areas

4. Identify Potential Problems:

what could go wrong with this activity?

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Problem Structure

5. Prioritise Potential Problems:

probability (High/Medium/Low)

impact (High/Medium/Low)

6. Determine Probable Causes:

what could cause this potential problem?

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Problem Structure

7. Determine Preventive & Contingent Actions:

what can reduce the probability of this problem occurring?

what can reduce the impact if it does occur?

8. Modify Your Action Plan:

ad major preventive actions

ad major contingency actions

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Problem Structure

Objectivity Vision Initiative Check

Conclude

From Problem to Disaster

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3. Which course of action should we take?

Make reasoned choice

Choice-making pattern is based on these activities

1. Determination of purpose

2. Consideration of available options

3. Assessment of relative risks

4. What lies ahead? Future-oriented thinking

Anticipate the future

Look into the future

1. Preventive

2. Contingent

Take action

Effective Thinking Styles

1. Holistic Thinking:

All Issues surrounding and affecting the situation

2. Divergent Thinking:

Opening new dimensions to build diver data – base

3. Convergent Thinking:

Combining, conclusions, adding, dropping

Effective Thinking Styles

4. Creative Thinking:

New innovative original concepts & ideas

5. Collaborative Thinking:

Exchanging & building on others' ideas

6. Other Thinking Styles:

Positive & Negative

The Situational Leadership

Johari Window

HIDDENHIDDEN UNKNOWNUNKNOWN

FREEFREE BLINDBLIND

Known To Self Not Known To Self

Kn

own

To

Oth

ers

Not

K

now

n T

o O

ther

s

KEEP IT BALANCED

• Be included

• Feel secure

• Personal value

• Comfort

• Be effective

• Be free to join

• Be well regarded

• Open sharing

• Stay together

• Know its resources

• Enjoy itself

• Mission value

• Harmony

• Survive conflict

• Clarity

• Task value

• Acceptance

• Data

• Rules

• Collaboration

• Progress

• Completion

I Needs WE Needs IT Needs

Individual Needs Team Needs Task Needs

Problem Problem

AnalysisAnalysis

Conditions of Problem Solving

Possess skills

Experience success

Be rewarded

Not fear failure

Problem Analysis Steps

1. Recognize the problem

2. State the performance gap

3. Specify the problem

4. Identify critical distinctions

5. Look for changes

6. Generate possible cause

7. Verify most possible causes

8. Apply corrective action

Education

Problem solving & decision making slide v1