An introduction to the climate change and likely impacts on the APFIC region

APFIC Regional Consultative Workshop

Kathmandhu, Nepal, 24-26 May 2011

Climate change

The world has an ever-shifting climate earth’s climate has varied widely over the last few

hundred million years there have been hot periods, and ice ages changes appear to accompany changes in atmospheric

carbon dioxide (CO₂) levels. The climate is currently changing

surface air and sea temperatures have increased rate of warming has accelerated in the last few decades.

Human activity is contributing to this change mainly through increasing concentrations of

“greenhouse” gases (e.g. methane, CO2, N2O)There is natural variability

Unexpected events e.g. volcanic eruptions changes in energy from the sun, natural cycles such as El Niño (ENSO)

Projecting changes Very complex Numerous factors and variables Can only indicate scenarios

Key message - Climate change trends

More negative than positive effectsProjections over a timeframe of 50-100 yearsGradual changenatural systems vulnerable

Climate change will not have uniform impacts across the globe

Certain trends and impacts may be more pronounced in Asia temperature increases are likely to be above the global

norm in many parts of the regiona number of important river basins in Asia are

threatened by further water stresspeople in the region are likely to be disproportionately

impacted by floodingbiodiversity loss will be greater in the tropics.

Key message - Climate change trends (cont)

Developing countries, including those in Asia, are more vulnerable to direct climate change impacts Asia is highly vulnerable to climate change due to

the low capacity of countries in the region to respond and adapt

Don’t blame climate change for problems mainly caused by bad management!Climate change makes human driven problems

worseOverfishing, habitat destruction, Overcrowding aquaculture, effluents, moving

speciesGood management will deliver benefits

Sudden-onset, disaster-related climate change issues receive priority attention slower processes and gradual shifts to remain largely

ignored

Projected global changes

Warming trend over the last 50 years nearly twice the rate of warming for the last 100 years

Global average sea level rise average rate of 1.8 mm per year between 1961 to 2003 (1.3 to

2.3 mm) Projected scenarios over 100 years

temperature change could range from +0.3°C to as high as +6.4°C

sea level could change from 0.18 m to as high as 0.59 m Increased CO₂ levels in the atmosphere will lead to

increased acidification of the surface ocean. Intensity of rainfall events increases

particularly significant in tropics and high latitude Changes in average rainfall increase in rainfall is projected for the Asian monsoon increase in rainfall variability, less reliable seasonal rain?

Sea level pressure is increase over the subtropics and mid-latitudes influence sea flooding

There is a tendency for drying of the mid-continental areas during summer greater risk of droughts in those regions

Climate also responds to feedback mechanisms

Positive feedback (further increases in warming) Warmer water increases atmospheric water

vapourPolar ice melts, less reflection of sunWarm oceans absorb less CO2

Ocean acidification reduces formation of calcium carbonate and trapping into sediments

Negative feed back (decreases in warming) Increased temperature & rainfall increase

weathering and CO2 trapping

Increased evaporation and cloud formation may cool atmosphere

Some of the climate change terminology Vulnerability

‘the degree to which a system is susceptible to climate change, and is unable to cope with the negative effects of climate change’ (IPCC,2007)

Resilience “the ability to recover from, or adjust easily to change”

Adaptation “a response to climate change that seeks to reduce the vulnerability of natural

and human systems to climate change effects Adaptive capacity

“Abilities and resources to cope with climate-related changes” Mitigation

“Actions taken to reduce effect of climate change drivers (typically greenhouse gas reduction) “

“No-regrets” strategy “Actions contributing to CC adaptation or mitigation that make sense,

without even taking account of CC” “steps to reduce GHGs that would pay for themselves even without a climate

change” ENSO (El Niño-Southern Oscillation)

“a climate pattern that occurs across the tropical Pacific Ocean on average every five years, but over a period which varies from three to seven years. This affects rainfall, currents, temperatures, fisheries”

REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation & Forest Degradation) “uses market/financial incentives to reduce the emissions of greenhouse gases

from deforestation and forest degradation. Also supposed to deliver "co-benefits" such as biodiversity conservation and poverty alleviation”

Warming in the Asian region

Changes in coastal ecosystems are already taking place, with the migration of some species into previously cooler zones initial responses to climate change by a range of ecosystems

will be to migrate either inland or polewards e.g. along south-east coast of Australia; upwards towards

north of BOBSpecies range changing in large riversRates of warming of surface air and water temperatures

higher than global mean in central Asia, the Tibetan Plateau and northern Asia

somewhat higher than global mean in East Asia and South Asia

similar to the global mean in South-East Asia higher during the northern hemispheric winter than during

summer for all time periods over all sub-regions of Asia inland water systems will experience greater rates of heating

than ocean systems. Will a modest climate change push some ecosystems to

‘flip’ into a different state?

Weather patterns in the Asian region

Decreasing trends in mean annual rainfalle.g. North-East and North China, coastal belts and

arid plains of Pakistan, parts of North-East India, Indonesia, Philippines and some areas in Japan

Increasing trend in mean annual rainfalle.g. Western China, Changjiang Valley and the South-

Eastern coast of China, Bangladesh and along the western coasts of the Philippines

There is a trend toward an increased intensity of rainfall increase in frequency of occurrence of more intense

rainfall events in many parts of Asia

Overall decrease in the amount of rainfall fewer rainy days and reduced total annual amount of

precipitation

Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme eventsDroughts during the summer months and El Niño events Increase in extreme rainfall and winds associated with

tropical cyclones in East Asia, Southeast Asia and South Asia especially Bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea, Mekong Delta, Lao PDR.

Vietnam, Philippines

Intense rainfall events (monsoon related) causing landslides and severe flooding

Increase in storm surges and associated coastal flooding usually occur when low-pressure weather systems, cyclones,

or storm winds combine with high tides to drive sea water onshore

Continuing growth in coastal populations means that more communities, their property, and infrastructure will be exposed.

Heatwaves/hot spells in summer of longer duration more intense and more frequent, particularly in East Asia

Freshwater systems

Water needs Irrigation needs likely to increase to sustain productivity in

South and East Asia. Rain-fed crops in certain parts of the region may face

challenges. Demand for freshwater is likely to grow

rapid urbanization and industrialization (South Asia and Northern China )

aggravating water shortages that are largely caused by poorly planned resource management

Average river runoff decline by between 10-30% in the mid-latitudes & dry tropics increases of between 10-40% in the wet tropics flow will not be smooth, probably associated with flooding

Vulnerability of river basins Key river basins in Asia, such as the Mekong, the Ganges-

Meghna-Brahmaputra, and the Irrawaddy centres of intense inland fishing and aquaculture activity

may be subjected to earlier season peak flows, and overall reduction in flows

Oceans, coastal zones and sea-level rise

Changes to marine ecosystems will be among the most serious impacts projected marine climate impacts including: decline in seagrass meadows and seaweed beds due to

storms and warmer water migration of tropical pelagic fish and other marine species

into previously cooler waters loss of diversity in coral fish and other coral-dependent

organisms risks to marine food chains from ocean acidification,

potentially affecting fisheries.Coastlines will be subjected to:

Increased erosion Inundation (increasing wetland/flooded area) Flooding Loss of coastal wetlands or expansion of mangroves into

newly flooded coastal lands Saline intrusion into rivers, bays and aquifers

Most immediate and significant effects in delta areas, estuaries and associated wetlands, coral reefs, tidal flat communities and salt marshes

Health related risks

Coastal areas, in South, East and Southeast Asia, heavily-populated mega-delta regions risk to increased sea-based flooding , river-based flooding diarrhoeal disease associated with floods and droughts are

expected to rise in East, South and Southeast Asia temperature increase will support the proliferation of a range

of bacterial diseases including diarrhoeal diseases and cholera

Deaths due to heatwave events are also likely to increase, Brain strokes vulnerable groups such as the poor, elderly and manual

labourers heat stress combined with air pollution may also exacerbate

respiratory and cardiovascular disease rates. Increasing temperatures increases disease incidence and

geographical range Vector borne diseases such as malaria and encephalitis,

schistosomiasis

Effect on agriculture and food production

Agricultural productivity declines temperature increase, water availability, drought,

flooding and soil degradation increases in pests and disease affect grain productivity and food security in the

region global cereal prices increase (aquaculture feed price

up) livestock production and milk yields generally

decrease little scope for expansion of arable land area in Asia subsistence producers are likely to be at greatest

risk of productivity declines and loss of genetic diversity of crops.

Certain parts of Asia may experience increases in production some opportunity for aquaculture boom in a species leads to development of a

fishery Possible increase coastal nursery areas with

inundation

Identifying vulnerability in the region

Important to understand vulnerability focus on adaptation and mitigation strategies where to prioritize effort & money

Systems, places, people different effects in different places regional patterns of vulnerability

Difficult for poor to recover from extreme events Low incomes and under-developed financial markets Poor cannot access credit, loans and insurance &

national reserves and assistance limited Lack of effective public services to address extreme

eventsUnderstanding gender-related patterns of

vulnerability in the region in inequitable societies, poor women are more

vulnerable to natural disasters less mobile, may not have survival skills ( e.g.

swimming) impacts in processing sector after a disaster affects

women’s jobs

Developing countries in Asia are more vulnerable to climate change

Developing countries have higher levels of sensitivity to climate change greater reliance on climate sensitive sectors such as

agriculture and fisheriesDeveloping countries are experiencing high levels of

population growth majority population growth over the next few decades will

occur in developing countries strains on natural resources (fisheries, water, land)

Developing countries already experience high levels of migration, climate change will make this worse climate induced migration has been growing in recent years

(ADB,2010) migrations linked to other drivers (particularly economic

migration) Increased conflicts and social stresses

A lack of adequate water infrastructure and management developing countries are highly dependent on water for

economic growth and development

Vulnerability of livelihoods and economies in AsiaLinkage between socio-economic dependence and

vulnerabilityCountries that have a high dependency on the fisheries

sector as well as a low capacity to adapt will be most at risk of serious socio-economic implications Cambodia, Bangladesh, Lao PDR & Pakistan identified as

most vulnerable nutritional dependence on fisheries resources is high in much

of South-East Asia also other countries, such as Bangladesh, Japan and Sri Lanka countries with the largest fisheries landings in the region are

China, Japan, Indonesia, India and Bangladesh dependency on the fisheries sector for export income is

highest in the coastal nations of South-East Asia small developing states depend heavily on capture fisheries

access fees for income

Will impact sustainable development in Asia

EXPOSURENature and degreeto which countriesare exposed topredicted climatechange

SENSITIVITYDegree to whicheconomies & peopleare likely to beaffected by fishery relatedchanges

POTENTIAL IMPACTSAll impacts that may occur without takinginto account planned adaptation

ADAPTIVE CAPACITYAbilities and resources to cope withclimate-related changes

VULNERABILITY of communities, sub-sectors & economy

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Assessing vulnerability

From Badjeck, et al 2009

Thank you

The impact of climate change on fisheries and aquaculture production systems

Simon Funge-SmithSecretary, Asia-Pacific Fishery Commission

FAO Regional Office for Asia and the Pacific

Direct consequences

Direct biophysical and ecological consequences of projected changes

Direct impact on species compositions and distribution

Direct impact on catch potentialDirect impacts on aquaculture production

Indirect consequences

Interaction between other sectors (power generation, food production)

Strong competition for resources (land, freshwater)Mitigation actions of other sectorsMost already present

Climate change will make them worse

Driver: Changes in sea surface temperature More frequent harmful algal blooms; Less dissolved oxygen; Increased

incidence of disease and parasites; Altered local ecosystems with changes in competitors, predators and invasive species; Changes in plankton composition.

Impacts on the abundance and species composition of capture fisheries stocks. For aquaculture: Changes in infrastructure and operating costs from worsened

infestations of fouling organisms, pests, nuisance species and/or predators; Infrastructure and operating costs from worsened infestations of fouling organisms

In certain areas: Longer growing seasons; Lower natural mortality in winter; Enhanced metabolic and growth rates.

Potential for increased production and profit in certain localities, especially for aquaculture.

Enhanced primary productivity Potential benefits for aquaculture and fisheries but perhaps offset by changed

species composition and by eutrophication risks Changes in timing and success of migrations, spawning and peak abundance,

as well as in sex ratios. Potential loss of species or shift in composition in capture fisheries; Impacts on

seed availability for aquaculture. Potential opportunities from hatchery produced larvae for aquaculture and for cultured-based or enhanced fisheries

Change in the location and size of suitable range for particular species. Aquaculture opportunities both lost and gained; Potential species loss and

altered species composition for capture fisheries. Damage to coral reefs that serve as breeding habitats and may help protect

the shore from wave action. Reduced recruitment of fishery species; Worsened wave damage to

infrastructure or flooding from storm surges.

Driver: Rising sea level

Loss of land. Reduced area available for aquaculture; Loss of

freshwater fisheries.Changes to estuary systems.

Shifts in species abundance, distribution and composition of fish stocks and aquaculture seed.

Saline intrusion. Damage to freshwater capture fisheries; Reduced

freshwater availability for aquaculture; Shift to brackish water species. Increased opportunities for mariculture.

Changing coastal ecosystems such as mudflats and mangrove forests. Reduced recruitment and stocks for capture fisheries

and seed for aquaculture; Worsened exposure to waves and storm surges risks that coastal/inland aquaculture and fisheries will

become inundated.

Driver: Changes in rainfall and water availability

River hydrology, flooding, flood plain inundation & duration Changes in fish migration, recruitment patterns, and recruitment

success. Altered abundance and composition of wild stock; Impacts on seed

availability for aquaculture. Lower water availability for aquaculture;

impacts water quality causing more disease; Increased competition with other water users; Altered and reduced freshwater supplies with greater risk of drought.

Aquaculture higher costs maintaining pond water levels Increased stock loss; Reduced production capacity; Conflict with other water users; Change of culture species and culture systems (including some

potential opportunities) Changes in lake and river levels and the overall extent and

movement patterns of surface water. Altered distribution, composition and abundance of fish stocks; Fishers forced to migrate more and expend more effort.

Driver: Higher inland-water temperatures Increased stratification and reduced mixing of water in lakes, reducing

primary productivity and ultimately food supplies for fish species. Reductions in fish stocks.

Raised metabolic rates increase feeding rates and growth if water quality, dissolved oxygen levels, and food supply are adequate, otherwise possible reductions in feeding rates and growth; Potential for enhanced primary productivity.

Possible enhanced fish stocks for capture fisheries or else reduced growth where the food and oxygen supply does not increase sufficiently in line with temperature; Possible benefits for aquaculture, especially intensive and semi-intensive pond systems.

Shift in the location and size of the potential range for a given species. Aquaculture opportunities both lost and gained; Potential loss of species

and alteration of species composition for capture fisheries. Reduced water quality, especially in terms of dissolved oxygen; Changes

in the range and abundance of pathogens, predators and competitors; Invasive species introduced.

Altered capture fisheries stocks and species composition; Altered culture species and possibly worsened losses to disease (and so

higher operating costs) and possibly higher capital costs for aeration equipment or deeper ponds.

Changes in timing and success of migrations, spawning and peak abundance.

Potential loss of species or shift in composition for capture fisheries; Impacts on seed availability for aquaculture.

Driver: Increase in frequency and/or intensity of storms, drought

Large waves and storm surges; Loss of aquaculture stock and damage to or loss of aquaculture

facilities and fishing gear; Higher direct risk to fishers; capital costs needed to design cage

moorings, pond walls, jetties, etc. That can withstand storms; Insurance costs.

Inland flooding from intense precipitation; Introduction of disease or predators into aquaculture facilities during

flooding episodes. Salinity changes;

Impacts on wild fish recruitment and stocks; Lower water quality and availability for aquaculture; Salinity

changes Loss of wild and cultured stock; Increased production costs; Loss of opportunity as production is limited.

Changes in lake water levels and river flows. Reduced wild fish stocks; Intensified competition for fishing areas more migration by fisher folk.

Driver: Changes in El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)Regular occurrence that already affects climate and

ocean globallyChanged location and timing of ocean currents and

upwelling alters nutrient supply in surface waters affects primary productivity. changes in the distribution and productivity of open sea

fisheries.Changed ocean temperature and bleached coral.

reduced productivity of reef fisheries.Altered rainfall patterns (delayed monsoon onset)

drought, water shortages flash flooding in rivers

Driver: Ocean acidification

Reduced capacity of the ocean to buffer climate change

Rate of acidity change faster than any on record

Impacts on marine ecosystems and the benefits they provide

Affecting formation and dissolution of calcium carbonate shells and skeletons

Changes in species growth, reproduction and behaviour

Sectoral, technical adaptationsManagement of capture fisheries stocks in

response to climate change and catch declines Any ideas of strategies/options?

Economic and market diversification New species to markets Modify operations to adapt to operational cost

changes

Insurance for the fisheries and aquaculture sector Cope with unexpected weather events

Diversification of aquaculture production Warmwater species to cooler zones Lower trophic level species

Technical approaches for adaptation in the aquaculture sector Selective breeding Modified systems to cope with low dissolved

oxygen

Adaptation through Livelihood diversification

Adaptation through livelihood diversification Income generation not based on natural

resource base “adding-in” activities which spread risk

Adaptation through reduction of vulnerability ‘‘no-regret’’ strategies makes sense anyway

Reduce vulnerability to extreme events, unexpected changes safety at sea basic cyclone and storm surge preparation &

response Market price shifts, loss of fishing, changing

species, market Savings systems to cope with periods of no

income generation

Adaptation via improved governance

Good governance is essential for effective adaptation participatory, transparent, based on best practice

Ensure that the fisheries sector is clearly incorporated into mainstream climate change strategies and vice versa

Build supportive economic and trade policies Flexibility and adaptability in governance and management need

to be operationalized, including cross-sectoral governance Capacity building of communities, industry and institutions to

increase their ability to cope with unpredictable changes and events Ecosystem Approach to Fisheries (EAF) or the “Large Marine

Ecosystem” Approach Improve understanding of opportunities and threats – identify

winners and losers Countries and locations at high risk should be identified and

supported Pursue appropriate technologies that will support emission

reduction Pursue mitigation actions in a manner that supports the sector

more broadly

Opportunities for fisheries & aquaculture contribution to climate change mitigation

Direct reduction of greenhouse gas emissions Capture fisheries sector contributes only around 1.2% of global total

of fossil fuels use some possibilities for more efficient fuel use or fishing methods

that require less fuel these may impact on the ecosystem (e.g. purse seining on FAD)

Adoption of low(er) impact aquaculture systems: increase energy efficiency in aquaculture aeration/pumping, use of

liners, better feed conversion seaweed culture (potential as a biofuel) herbivorous aquaculture species lower carbon footprint improvements related to the transportation of fish to markets

Innovations in fish processing/transport improved building design and handling practices to reduce energy

requirements increase energy efficiency through better insulation in ice plants,

freezing plants, cold stores and chill stores. Other possible positive opportunities

branding and certification initiatives to promote energy efficient products

Opportunities for fisheries & aquaculture contribution to climate change mitigation (cont)

Look for positive opportunities in extra-sectoral responses. Mitigation actions may provide opportunities for the

fisheries sector. protection of ecosystems for coastal protection or emissions

reductions may actually enhance fisheries payment for ecosystem services schemes targeting

ecosystems associated with fisheries Fishery habitat rehabilitation associated with wetland or

mangrove ecosystems rehabilitation Initiatives on Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and

Forest Degradation (REDD) mangrove restoration revenues from eco-tourism

Mitigation and adaptation in other sectors may impact fisheries & aquaculture

Adaptive strategies developed for other sectors may have implications on the fisheries and aquaculture sectors.

e.g., water, agriculture, coastal management, storm protection interaction between other sectors and the capture fisheries and

aquaculture sectors need to be considered in policy planning

Competition for water between the fisheries and agriculture sectors already lead to conflicts between user groups.

Changing water flows and abstraction demands by agriculture may affect rivers and consequently fisheries.

Water saving strategies for rice production limit the available water in rice fields for wild fish production.

Flood controls and irrigation development are known to impact fisheries.

Similar conflicts arise regarding the diversion of fresh water for water-thirsty industries

Mitigation and adaptation in other sectors may impact fisheries & aquaculture (cont)Alternative energy

Use of coastal areas for wind and wave power may limit fishing or aquaculture areas, or impact critical habitats.

Biofuel production may affect prices of feeds for aquaculture.

Increasing interest in hydropower large dams Physical barriers and erratic water releases lead to disruptions to spawning migrations and

larval fish flows, result in destruction of fishing gears, injury and loss of life

Key messages

Region has a huge dependence on aquatic ecosystems fisheries and aquaculture sector food security, trade and employment

Climate stress is here: oceanic dead zones, acidification, disturbed freshwater

processes, falling groundwater levels, pressure on aquatic resources, species shifts, cyclone patterns, sea temperature

we must address these changes through adaptation and mitigation

Climate change will cause unprecedented disruptions to aquatic and coastal systems must understand the risks identify vulnerable systems develop adaptive strategies

Negative impacts expected on: Capture fisheries already under stress by overexploitation,

coastal habitat degradation and pollution Productivity and viability of aquaculture operations Related sectors: agriculture, land and water management,

coastal development

Key messages (cont)

In the short term, non-climate-related drivers have larger impacts

Current poor practices in fisheries and ecosystem management undermine health of fisheries systems reduce resilience to climate change related impacts

Ability to make specific predictions on fisheries sector remains limited

Flexibility in management systems and institutions is necessary as no prescriptive advice can be expected