Upload
questrcn
View
460
Download
0
Embed Size (px)
Citation preview
Uncertainty in forest management planning: why it will not go away and
what should we do about it
Pierre BernierNatural Resources Canada / Canadian Forest Service
IUFRO World Congress 2014
3
The different scales of forest management
1- Operational / tactical (short-term): Harvest scheduling, stand tending, sylviculture, access maintenance and planning
Uncertainties related to:• Wood quantity and quality, distribution on the landscape• Short-term to medium-term market conditions
4
3- Strategic, regional scale (medium to long-term): Sustainability targets, investment decisions, etc…
Uncertainties related to:• Tree growth and disturbance regimes• Long-term market conditions• Changing regulations / legislations / standards
The different scales of forest management
Trees take decades to grow but the
past is no longer a good analog of the
future
5
Source: IPCC
IPCC WG1 AR5, 2013 :« …since the 1950s,
many of the observedchanges are
unprecedented over decades to
millennia... »
Climate change is a large cause of current and future uncertainty
6
Impacts on Canada’s forest sector are already detectable
Frest fires
Bark beetle attack on
Ponderosa pine
Droughts
Spruce budworm
Mountain Pine beetle
Aspen dieback Winter harvesting
issuesIncreased growth??
Wind and ice storms
Smoke emissions
9
Time=0
Climate change and global changes impose new
uncertainties in the projection of future states of forest
ecosystems.
Time=30, 50, 100 years
10
•Societies’ expectations are changing with ensuing rapid changes in regulations and legislations
•Forest products are diversifying but with shorter life cycle, making it difficult to forecast the future use of trees
•The market place is globalizing making it difficult to predict the future value of trees
Forestry and Society
11
Sustainable management: maintenance of ecosystem
processes
Forest management: an evolving concept
Changes in public perception and expectations
Improvements in tracking capacity
Improvements in understanding of ecosystem processes
Sustained yield: maintenance of
timber flow
12
Many uncertainties are linked to chaotic
systems, or to elements whose drivers are not
within the control of the forest sector
14
The way forward…
1- Base decisions on multiple futures:Use multiple projection toolsUse multiple scenariosUse probabilistic approaches
For researchers:
Develop risk analysis for forest strategic planningDevelop optimisation tools that incorporate stochasticity
15
2- Implement adaptive management approaches:
Predict
Verify
Adjust
Continuousdevelopment of
knowledge
Continuousmonitoring of forest status
Periodic comparisonof predictions versus
reality
Periodic re-alignment of management
goals and tools
LearnTry
Change
The way forward…
For researchers:•Development of monitoring •Study of trends / forecasts•Evaluation of vulnerabilities
16
3- Mainstream changes…
Changes in legislative / regulatory frameworksIncorporation of risk and failureSupport for adaptation to an uncertain world
The way forward…
For researchers:
Evaluation of barriers to changeEnrichment of dialogues with forest managers/plannersTailoring of research to address pressing planning needs