Technology and Cost Assessments for New Passenger Cars in China - Hui He

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International Workshop on Technology and Policy Solutions for Energy-Efficient and Low Carbon Light-Duty Vehicles 6/4/2014-6/5/2014 Beijing, China

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  • 1. Hui He, Senior Policy Analyst Technology and cost assessments for new passenger cars in China International Workshop on Technology and Policy Solutions for Energy-efficient and Low Carbon Light-duty VehiclesJune 5th, Beijing

2. Goals three questions : Provide technical support to 2020-2025 (and possibly beyond) light-duty vehicle fuel consumption standards developmentStringency?Technologies?Costs?22020-2025 3. A technology cost curve for China 3Fuel consumption reduction Incremental costTechnologyPackages 4. Highlights of the project A joint project between the ICCT and CATARCTransferred the newest US/EU methodologies to ChinaAdopted new approach in assessing fuel-saving potentials of future technologies Ricardo simulation modelAdopted new approach in assessing the costs of these technologies FEV tear- down analysisAdopted most recent assessments of mass- reduction technologiesHigh-resolution adaptation to China4ICCTCATARC Ricardo EPA FEV 5. Methodology and data flow 5 (FEV)CO2 (Ricardo)China baseline (ICCT) (FEV, Lotus)China baseline adjustment China cost(FEV+ICCT+CATARC)China intermediate technologies Connect technology impact to costs 6. 6Technology assessment based on Ricardo simulationRicardo 7. About Ricardo simulation Simulation models are widely adopted in the auto industry for product design and technology evaluationUS EPA referred to Ricardo simulation results to development its 2017-2025 LDV standardsContracted by ICCT, Ricardo expanded the EPA simulation by adding in new technologies, vehicle classes, and test cycleVisualization software DVT7 EPARicardo 2017-2025 ICCTRicardo DVT 8. Design space : major technology packages :Start-stop incl. energy-recuperationGasoline direct injection (DI), turbocharging and downsizing (stoichiometric)Gasoline DI, turbocharging and downsizing (lean-stoich.)Gasoline exhaust gas recirculation (EGR) DI turboGasoline Atkinson cycle engine with cam profile switching (CPS)Gasoline Atkinson cycle engine with digital valve actuation (DVA)Gasoline P2 hybridGasoline PowerSplit hybridDiesel advanced 2020+ engineAdvanced transmission technologies (6/8-speed automatic, dual clutch transmission)Manual transmission sensitivity analysis8Start-stop EGR CPS DVA(P2)(power-split)2020 + 6/8 9. Design space : vehicle classesNewABCDEsmall SUVsmall N1large N1Peugeot 107Toyota YarisVWGolfToyota AvensisBMW5 seriesBMWX3Renault KangooFord Transit11%28%32%11%3%