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Vulnerability assessment of heat waves in Guangdong Province, China - Wenjun Ma, Liu Tao

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District/county based vulnerability assessment on heat waves in Guangdong Province Wenjun Ma, Liu TaoGuangdong Provincial Institute of Public HealthGuangdong Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention11

Good morning everyone, it my pleasure to be here to share our research works with you. My topic is the district/county based vulnerability assessment on heat waves in Guangdong province. 1

GDCDCAdministrative divisionsProfessionalinstitutesAffiliated organizationsGeneral OfficeBudget and FinancePublic Health EmergencyBioproducts and DevicesQuality and TechnologyResearch, Training and InformationHuman ResourcesInfectious Disease Control and Prevention HIV/AIDS Control and PreventionParasitic Disease Control and PreventionDisinfection and Vector ControlImmunization Programme Non-communicable Disease Prevention & ControlPrimary Health and Endemic Disease Prevention & ControlNutrition and Food SafetyEnvironment and School HealthPathogenic MicrobiologyPublic Health Laboratory Services Toxicology GD Provincial Institute of Public Health (50 staff)InstituteofBiological Products andMateriaMedica(130 staff)Total staff314Professionals 275 Brief introduction

WHO Collaborating Centre for Surveillance, Research and Training of Emerging Infectious Diseases

CDC812203142752

4 Introduction Methods Main findings Conclusions Recommendations Outline

My presentation is comprised of six sections. 4

5 Introduction Methods Main findings Conclusions Recommendations Outline

Firstly lets go to the introductoin.

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6Introduction

Climate change

Everyone in this room are experts in the field of climate change. All of you have well know the climate change, and its significant effects on human health. 6

7Climate change

Heat waves

Health impacts of heat waves were well known

Introduction

As one of the most significant characteristics of climate change, ambient temperature had significantly increased in the past several decades, which had led to more and more intense heat waves. Mountains of studies have confirmed the significant effects of heat waves on humean health.7

8Introduction

Distribution of heat wave times during 1975-2010 in Guangdong provinceHeat waves dramatically increased in the past five decades

In the past half century, the frequency of heat waves dramatically increased in Guangdong province, especially after entering the 21st century. 8

9No study was conducted to assess the vulnerability to heat waves in in Guangdong province.Introduction

However, no previous studies were found to assess the vulnerability to heat waves in Guangdong province.9

10No study was conducted to assess the vulnerability to heat waves in in Guangdong province.Introduction Vulnerability assessment is a very important tool to find out the vulnerable groups and regions, which could provide solid evidence for decision making to protect people from heat waves.

As we know that vulnerability assessment is a very important tool to find out the vulnerable groups and regions. And this could provide informaiton for desicioin making on protecting prople from heat wave effects.10

11No study was conducted to assess the vulnerability to heat waves in in Guangdong province.Introduction Vulnerability assessment is a very important tool to find out the vulnerable groups and regions, which could provide could provide solid evidence for decision making to protect people from heat waves.This study aimed to assess the regional vulnerability to heat waves in Guangdong province based on the 124 districts/counties.

This study aimed to assess the regional vulnerability to heat waves in Guangdong province based on 124 districts/counties.11

12 Introduction Methods Main findings Conclusions Recommendations Outline

13Vulnerability index framework (IPCC)Methods

We employed the vulnerability index framework accormmendated by IPCC working group. It contains three components including exposure, sensitivity and adaptation index, then these three components could be combined by a function.13

Build index system14Methods Literature reviewExpert consultation

Build the indicator systemComprehensivenessDominance OperabilityCombing qualitative and quantitative methods

The indicator system was built up through literature review and expert consultation, during which four principles were employed. 14

15Vulnerability indicatorsMethods Vulnerability index frameworkSensitivity indicators (SI)Adaptive indicators (AI)Exposure indicators (EI)S1. Proportion of people >65 yearsA1. Proportion of health technicians in per thousand peopleE1. Average annual increase rate of surface temperature during 1975-2005S2. Proportion of people 4 yearsA2. Per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP)E2. Number of days with maximum temperature > 351975-2005S3. Proportion of immigrant populationA3. Proportion of homes with per capital living space less than 8m2S4. Proportion of unemployed population A4. Populating rate of harmless sanitation toilets in the rural areaS5. Proportion of agricultural population A5. Proportion of illiterate in people >15 years S6. Infant mortality

This table contained all the indicators used in our assessment, which included six sensitivity indicators, five adaptative indicators and two exposure indicators.15

16Data collectionMethods

Data was collected from different resources. The social economic charactreristic data was collected from the sixth population census data, guangdong province health statistical yearbook, and guangdong statistical yearbook. Meteorological data was from guangdong provincial meteorological bureau. We also collected some other data from Chinas natural disaster risk atlas and china infromation system for disease control and prevention.16

In order to exclude the influences of different indicator scales, every indicators could be standardized, such as by range method.17Methods

The higher the betterThe lower the better

Before we calculate this data, all indicators were standardized to eliminate the influence of different scales. We used range method to standardize the indicators. For the higher the better indicators, we used the upper equation, for the lower the better indicators, we used the lower equation. 17

18Determine the weighting of each indicatorEqual weighting, expert consultation and analytic hierarchy process, artificial neural network and principle component analysisMethods 13579Relative importanceEqual important A little more importantObviously importantVery importantExtremely important

Table 1. Grade of importance2, 4, 6 and 8 means the middle importance between the two neighbors.

As we know that, not all the indicators are equally important. Some of them are key indicators, therefore have large weightings. There are some methods to determine the indicators weightings, for example, equal weighting method, expert consultation and analytic hierarchy process, artifical neural network and principle component analysis. In the present study, we employed the second one, which is widely used in previous vulnerability analyses. Each expert was given a metrix table of all indicators. They were asked to compare between all the indicators, and give a score in each comparison. For example, if the expert thought that indicator A is extrmely important than indictor B, a score of 9 will be given to that comprision. 18

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B=A judgment matrix will be obtained for each index system.Methods

After the expert finished all the comprisons between all indicators, a judgement matrix will be obtained for each index system.19

Consistence tests were conducted to test the consistent results of different indicators importance, which was judged by Consistence Ratio (CR)20Methods

CR: Consistence Ratio , CI: Consistence Index, RI: Random Index

But some times, the expert may make mistakes, they may give wrong judgments. For example, when indicator A is more important than indicator B, and indicator B is more important than indicator C, then theoretically indicator A is also more important than indicator C. But the expert may wrongly think that indicator A is equally or less important than indicator C. In order to test the extent of consistence, a index of consistence ratio (CR) could be calculated for each experts matrix, which is the lower the better.20

21Weightings of Sensitivity indicators

Methods Sensitivity indicatorScore of expertsWeightingExpert AExpert BExpert CExpert DExpert ES1. Proportion of people >65 years0.320.140.170.150.330.226S2. Proportion of people 4 years0.170.050.080.070.080.098S3. Proportion of immigrant population0.050.310.340.030.040.167S4. Proportion of unemployed population 0.090.130.270.030.040.109S5. Proportion of agricultural population 0.050.330.080.270.190.186S6. Infant mortality0.320.050.060.450.330.213 CR0.080.090.090.090.02

In the present study, we invited five experts to judge each indicators weightings, then a average weightings could be calculated. This column showed all the weightings. And also each experts CR was also calculated. The results showed that all the judgements had good consistence. 21

22Weightings of Adaptive indicators

Methods Adaptive indexesScore of expertsWeightingExpert AExpert BExpert CExpert DExpert EA1. Proportion of health technicians in per thousand people0.040.260.250.240.110.165A2. Per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP)0.330.350.470.480.050.335A3. Proportion of homes with per capital living space less than 8m20.130.290.090.080.190.182A4. Populating rate of harmless sanitation toilets in the rural area0.080.050.110.030.110.069A5. Proportion of illiterate in people >15 years 0.420.060.080.170.550.249 CR0.070.090.090.090.09

Similarly, we got the average weightings of adaptive indicators, and their CRs.22

23Weightings of exposure indicatorsMethods Exposure indexes Score of expertsWeightingExpert AExpert BExpert CExpert DExpert EE1. Average annual increase rate of surface temperature during 1975-20050.170.140.200.200.170.165E2. Number of days with maximum temperature > 351975-20050.830.860.800.800.830.835 CR0.000.000.000.000.00

This table is for the exposure indicators. After we got all indicatorsweightings, sensitivity, exposure and adaptive index of each county/district could be calculated. 23

Build vulnerability index

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Methods Where, VIjEIjSij and Aij mean the exposure index, sensitivity index and adaptivity index of district/county j. n means the number of total dimensions. Scott Baum, et al. 2008

Then using this formula, we can got the vulnerability index of each county/district.24

25Calculate the vulnerability index of each county/district

Based on the index and weightings system, the vulnerability index of each county/district was calculated. The distribution of all counties/districts vulnerability index were displayed in the map of Guangdong province by ArcGIS system.

Methods

All the vulnerability index of each county/district was showed by ArcGIS skill.25

26 Introduction Methods Main findings Conclusions Recommendations Outline

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27Main findings

Exposure index was stile-like distributed, with higher in north less developed areas, and lower in south developed or coastal areas

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28Main findings

Sensitivity index was lower in the Pearl River Delta than that in other places

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29Main findings

Adaptive index was higher in the Pearl River Delta than that in other places

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30Main findings

Vulnerability index was stile-like distributed in Guangdong Province, with higher in north less developed areas, and lower in south developed or coastal areas

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Main findings31

Expert consultation Principal component analysisThere is a good consistence between the results of two methods

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32IntroductionMethods Main findingsConclusions Recommendations Outline

33Vulnerability to heat waves in Guangdong province was stile-like distributed, with higher in north less developed areas, and lower in south developed or coastal areas.Socioeconomic level and people adaptive capacity largely affect the regional vulnerability level to heat waves.Conclusions

34 Introduction Methods Main findings Conclusions Recommendations Outline

35Increase stakeholders understanding of the needs to develop the heat waves response strategies.Enhance the heat waves early warning and emergency response system, especially in northern mountain areas.Identify who are the most vulnerable population groups to heat waves in northern areas.Recommendations

In the past several years, we did lots of research works on climate change and health under the support of ACCC project:

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The effects of temperature variations on human healthHealth impacts of heat waves and cold spellMeteorological factors and infectious diseasesRisk perception and adaptive capacityTranslation Research

Temperature and mortalityIdentified the relationship between temperature and mortality Analyzed the effects of DTR and temperature change between neighboring days and morality 38

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The effects of temperature variations on human healthHealth impacts of heat waves and cold spellMeteorological factors and infectious diseasesRisk perception and adaptive capacityTranslation Research

Heat waves, cold spell and moralityAssessed the effects of heat waves and cold spells on mortality in the past and future.Identified the distribution of vulnerable population to extreme weather events.Established the early warning system cooperated with meteorological departments.42

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The effects of temperature variations on human healthHealth impacts of heat waves and cold spellMeteorological factors and infectious diseasesRisk perception and adaptive capacityTranslation Research

Metrological factors and infectious diseasesMetrological factors and dengueMetrological factors and malaria Metrological factors and hand-foot-mouth disease;Metrological factors and Zika.

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The effects of temperature variations on human healthHealth impacts of heat waves and cold spellMeteorological factors and infectious diseasesRisk perception and adaptive capacityTranslation Research

Investigated the risk perception level in Guangdong populationAnalyzed their adaptive capacity to heat wavesConducted intervention research on heat waves in communities.50

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The effects of temperature variations on human healthHealth impacts of heat waves and cold spellMeteorological factors and infectious diseasesRisk perception and adaptive capacityTranslation Research

Developed a series of health education and risk communication materials.Submitted a TwoSessions proposal. Provided materials to the Guangdong Provincial Development and Reform Commission for developing adaptive strategies to climate change.Two sessions proposalTwo sessions proposalTwo sessions proposal

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62Thanks for your attentionsQ & A

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