Vulnerability assessment of heat waves in Guangdong Province, China - Wenjun Ma, Liu Tao

单击此处编辑母版标题样式

District/county based vulnerability assessment on heat waves in

Guangdong Province

Wenjun Ma, Liu Tao

Guangdong Provincial Institute of Public Health

Guangdong Provincial Centre for Disease Control and Prevention 11

单击此处编辑母版标题样式GDCDC

Administrative divisions

Professionalinstitutes Affiliated organizations

General Office

Budget and Finance

Public Health Emergency

Bioproducts and Devices

Quality and Technology

Research, Training and Information

Human Resources

Infectious Disease Control and Prevention HIV/AIDS Control and PreventionParasitic Disease Control and PreventionDisinfection and Vector Control

Immunization Programme

Non-communicable Disease Prevention & ControlPrimary Health and Endemic Disease Prevention & Control

Nutrition and Food Safety

Environment and School Health

Pathogenic Microbiology

Public Health Laboratory Services

Toxicology

GD Provincial Institute of Public Health (50 staff)

Institute of Biological Products and Materia Medica (130 staff)

Total staff： 314

Professionals ： 275

Brief introduction

WHO Collaborating Centre for Surveillance, Research and Training

of Emerging Infectious Diseases


GDIPH

Environmental and health

Health risk assessmen

t and standards

General office

International cooperation

and academic exchange

Health policy


4

Introduction

Methods

Main findings

Conclusions

Recommendations

Outline


5

Introduction

Methods

Main findings

Conclusions

Recommendations

Outline


6

Introduction

Climate change


7

Climate

change

℃Heat

waves Health impacts of heat waves were

well known

Introduction


8

Introduction

Distribution of heat wave times during 1975-2010 in Guangdong province

Heat waves dramatically

increased in the past five decades


9

No study was conducted to assess the vulnerability to heat

waves in in Guangdong province.

Introduction


10

No study was conducted to assess the vulnerability to heat

waves in in Guangdong province.

Introduction

Vulnerability assessment is a very important tool to find out

the vulnerable groups and regions, which could provide solid

evidence for decision making to protect people from heat

waves.


11

No study was conducted to assess the vulnerability to heat waves in in Guangdong

province.

Introduction

Vulnerability assessment is a very important tool to find out the vulnerable groups and

regions, which could provide could provide solid evidence for decision making to protect

people from heat waves.

This study aimed to assess the regional vulnerability to heat

waves in Guangdong province based on the 124

districts/counties.


12

Introduction

Methods

Main findings

Conclusions

Recommendations

Outline


13

Vulnerability index framework (IPCC)

Methods

Vulnerability index (VI)

Function

Exposure index

(EI)Sensitivity index (SI)

Adaption Index (AI)

单击此处编辑母版标题样式 Build index system

14

Methods

Literature review

Expert consultation

Build the indicator system

Comprehensiveness

Dominance Operability

Combing qualitative and quantitative

methods


15

Vulnerability indicators

Methods

Vulnerability index frameworkSensitivity

indicators (SI)Adaptive indicators

(AI)Exposure indicators

(EI)

S1. Proportion of people >65 years

A1. Proportion of health technicians in per thousand people

E1. Average annual increase rate of surface temperature during 1975-2005

S2. Proportion of people ≤4 years

A2. Per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP)

E2. Number of days with maximum temperature > 35℃（ 1975-2005）

S3. Proportion of immigrant population

A3. Proportion of homes with per capital living space less than 8m2

S4. Proportion of unemployed population

A4. Populating rate of harmless sanitation toilets in the rural area

S5. Proportion of agricultural population

A5. Proportion of illiterate in people >15 years

S6. Infant mortality


16

Data collection

Methods

DataSocial economiccharacteristics

The sixth population census data

Guangdong province health statistics yearbook

Guangdong statistical yearbook

Meteorological dataGuangdong Provincial Meteorological Bureau

Others China's natural disaster risk atlas

China information system for disease control and prevention


In order to exclude the influences of different indicator scales,

every indicators could be standardized, such as by range

method.

17

Methods

njmidddd

djj

jijij ,,2,1;,,2,1,minmax

min

njmidddd

djj

ijjij ,,2,1;,,2,1,minmax

max

The higher the better

The lower the better


18

Determine the weighting of each indicator Equal weighting, expert consultation and analytic hierarchy process,

artificial neural network and principle component analysis

Methods

1 3 5 7 9

Relative importance

Equal important

A little more important

Obviously important

Very important

Extremely important

Table 1. Grade of importance

2, 4, 6 and 8 means the middle importance between the two neighbors.


19

1

11

1

321

32331

22321

11312

nnn

n

n

n

bbb

bbbbbbbbb

B=

A judgment matrix will be obtained for each index system.

Methods

单击此处编辑母版标题样式 Consistence tests were conducted to test the consistent results

of different indicators’ importance, which was judged by

Consistence Ratio (CR)

20

Methods

CR: Consistence Ratio , CI: Consistence Index, RI: Random Index

RICICR


21

Weightings of Sensitivity indicators

Methods

Sensitivity indicatorScore of experts

WeightingExpert A

Expert B

Expert C

Expert D

Expert E

S1. Proportion of people >65 years 0.32 0.14 0.17 0.15 0.33 0.226

S2. Proportion of people ≤4 years 0.17 0.05 0.08 0.07 0.08 0.098

S3. Proportion of immigrant population

0.05 0.31 0.34 0.03 0.04 0.167

S4. Proportion of unemployed population

0.09 0.13 0.27 0.03 0.04 0.109

S5. Proportion of agricultural population

0.05 0.33 0.08 0.27 0.19 0.186S6. Infant mortality 0.32 0.05 0.06 0.45 0.33 0.213

CR 0.08 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.02


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Weightings of Adaptive indicators

Methods

Adaptive indexesScore of experts

WeightingExpert A

Expert B

Expert C

Expert D

Expert E

A1. Proportion of health technicians in per thousand people 0.04 0.26 0.25 0.24 0.11 0.165

A2. Per capita Gross Domestic Product (GDP) 0.33 0.35 0.47 0.48 0.05 0.335

A3. Proportion of homes with per capital living space less than 8m2

0.13 0.29 0.09 0.08 0.19 0.182A4. Populating rate of

harmless sanitation toilets in the rural area 0.08 0.05 0.11 0.03 0.11 0.069

A5. Proportion of illiterate in people >15 years 0.42 0.06 0.08 0.17 0.55 0.249

CR 0.07 0.09 0.09 0.09 0.09


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Weightings of exposure indicators

Methods

Exposure indexes

Score of expertsWeightingExpert

AExpert

BExpert

CExpert

DExpert

E

E1. Average annual increase rate of surface temperature during 1975-2005

0.17 0.14 0.20 0.20 0.17 0.165

E2. Number of days with maximum

temperature > 35℃（ 1975-

2005）0.83 0.86 0.80 0.80 0.83 0.835

CR 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00


Build vulnerability index

24

(1 )* j j

j j

SI AIVI EI

n

Methods

Where, VIj、 EIj、 Sij and Aij mean the exposure index,

sensitivity index and adaptivity index of district/county j. n means

the number of total dimensions.

Scott Baum, et al. 2008


25

Calculate the vulnerability index of each county/district

Based on the index and weightings system, the

vulnerability index of each county/district was

calculated.

The distribution of all counties/districts’ vulnerability

index were displayed in the map of Guangdong

province by ArcGIS system.

Methods


26

Introduction

Methods

Main findings

Conclusions

Recommendations

Outline


27

Main findings

Exposure index was stile-

like distributed, with

higher in north less

developed areas, and

lower in south developed

or coastal areas


28

Main findings

Sensitivity index was

lower in the Pearl

River Delta than that

in other places


29

Main findings

Adaptive index was

higher in the Pearl

River Delta than that

in other places


30

Main findings

Vulnerability index was stile-like

distributed in Guangdong

Province, with higher in north

less developed areas, and lower

in south developed or coastal

areas

单击此处编辑母版标题样式Main findings

31

Expert consultation Principal component analysis

There is a good consistence between the results of two methods


32

Introduction

Methods

Main findings

Conclusions

Recommendations

Outline


33

Vulnerability to heat waves in Guangdong province was stile-

like distributed, with higher in north less developed areas, and

lower in south developed or coastal areas.

Socioeconomic level and people’ adaptive capacity

largely affect the regional vulnerability level to

heat waves.

Conclusions


34

Introduction

Methods

Main findings

Conclusions

Recommendations

Outline


35

Increase stakeholder’s understanding of the needs to

develop the heat waves response strategies.

Enhance the heat waves early warning and emergency

response system, especially in northern mountain areas.

Identify who are the most vulnerable population groups to

heat waves in northern areas.

Recommendations


36

In the past several years, we did lots of research works on climate change and health under the support of ACCC project:


研究发现

37

★The effects of temperature variations on

human health★Health impacts of heat waves and cold spell

★Meteorological factors and infectious diseases

★Risk perception and adaptive capacity

★Translation Research

单击此处编辑母版标题样式Temperature and mortality

Identified the relationship

between temperature and

mortality

Analyzed the effects of DTR and

temperature change between

neighboring days and morality

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39


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研究发现

41

★The effects of temperature variations on human health

★Health impacts of heat waves and cold

spell★Meteorological factors and infectious diseases



单击此处编辑母版标题样式Heat waves, cold spell and morality

Assessed the effects of heat waves and cold spells on mortality in the past and future.

Identified the distribution of vulnerable population to extreme weather events.

Established the early warning system cooperated with meteorological departments.

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43


44


研究发现

45


★Health impacts of heat waves and cold spell

★Meteorological factors and infectious

diseases★Risk perception and adaptive capacity


单击此处编辑母版标题样式Metrological factors and infectious diseases

Metrological factors and dengueMetrological factors and malaria ；Metrological factors and hand-foot-

mouth disease;Metrological factors and Zika.

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47


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研究发现

49




★Risk perception and adaptive capacity★Translation Research

单击此处编辑母版标题样式 Investigated the risk perception level

in Guangdong population；Analyzed their adaptive capacity to

heat waves；Conducted intervention research on

heat waves in communities.50


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研究发现

53







Developed a series of health education and risk communication materials.

Submitted a “Two Sessions” proposal. 为 Provided materials to the Guangdong

Provincial Development and Reform Commission for developing adaptive strategies to climate change.

Two sessions proposal Two sessions proposal

Two sessions proposal


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图1.宣传海报图2.购物袋

图4.宣传折纸图3.宣传扇子


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Thanks for your attentionsQ & A