40
Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 edition 2015.03.31. Wine Vision WSET 정휘웅

Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

  • Upload
    -

  • View
    259

  • Download
    2

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

Analysis of Korean wine

market2015 edition

2015.03.31. Wine Vision WSET

정휘웅

Page 2: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

Table of contents

Trends in Korean wine market (1995~2014)

2014 Korean wine market analysis

Prospect for 2015 market

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 2

Page 3: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

Wine import Amounts and volume trend(total)

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 3

• 2007년정점을찍은이후금융위기로감소세를겪었으나, 2013년기점으로완전히회복

• 금액증가율은유지하고있으나물량증가율은눈에띄게둔화되고있음

• 증가율둔화는2015년통계를추가분석하면좀더정확하게분석가능

Page 4: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

Red, white, sparkling wine ratio

Amounts Volume

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 4

• 물량측면에서레드가점차로줄어들고화이트의소비가늘어나고있음을보여줌• 스파클링도늘어나고는있으나금액증가율이좀더높아상대적으로단가가높음을보여줌(화이트는

상대적으로저렴)

• 화이트, 스파클링비중증가는앞으로하나의트렌드로나타날수밖에없음

Page 5: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

Yearly growth by countries(total amounts, dollars)

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 5

Page 6: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

Yearly growth by countries(total volume, tons)

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 6

지그재그형지그재그

지그재그형

지그재그형

2년주기지그재그

2년주기지그재그

Page 7: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

Wine import Amounts trend(red)

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 7

Page 8: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

Wine import volume trend(red)

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 8

• 시장트렌드설명에는금액보다물량이좀더합리적인설명이되는것으로파악됨• 시장체감도에서칠레가압도하고있으며, 스페인도가격을무기로시장점유율을높이고있음

Page 9: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

Yearly growth by countries(Red amounts, dollars)

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 9

Page 10: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

Yearly growth by countries(Red volume, tons)

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 10

지그재그형

2년주기지그재그

Page 11: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

Wine import Amounts trend(white)

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 11

Page 12: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

Wine import volume trend(white)

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 12

• 화이트는이탈리아가지배적이라고 볼수있으나, 전체적인점유율을보았을때에는춘추전국시대로 파악하는것이타당

• 이탈리아와프랑스가시장지배적인비율을차지하고있으며스페인이비율을급속히늘리고있는것이관찰되어서향후국내화이트와인시장을둘러싼국가간경쟁은치열해질것으로예상

Page 13: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

Yearly growth by countries(white amounts, dollars)

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 13

Page 14: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

Yearly growth by countries(white volume, tons)

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 14

지그재그형

지그재그형 지그재그

형지그재그형

지그재그형

• 레드에비해화이트가지그재그형수입패턴이많아레드는계약대로수입하나화이트는해마다시장상황을보아가며수입하는패턴이유지됨을보여줌

Page 15: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

Wine import amounts trend(sparkling)

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 15

• 프랑스의샴페인과스파클링수입은극적으로증가하고있음• 시장에서스파클링, 특히샴페인의인기는지속될것으로예상됨

Page 16: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

Wine import volume trend(sparkling)

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 16

• 작은시장규모에버니니가통계자료의한축을차지하고있음• 이탈리아의스푸만테가시장에서밀리고있는현상이확연하게나타남

Page 17: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

Yearly growth by countries(sparkling amounts, dollars)

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 17

Page 18: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

Yearly growth by countries(sparkling volume, tons)

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 18

지그재그형

지그재그형

Page 19: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

2014 Korean wine market(total)

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 19

• 물량에서는칠레가시장을압도하고있으나, 프랑스는금액적인측면에서여전히주도권을쥐고있음• 스페인이저가를무기로시장점유율이상당히늘어나고있음

Page 20: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

2014 Korean wine market(Red)

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 20

Page 21: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

2014 Korean wine market(white)

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 21

Page 22: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

2014 Korean wine market(sparkling)

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 22

• 물량은남아공, 금액으로는 프랑스나, 버니니를와인시장범주에넣지않을경우이탈리아가여전히주도권을쥐고있음

• 다만버니니에의한모스카토다스티, 스푸만테와프리찬테시장에대한시장잠식이눈에띄이고있음• 시장성장에대한과실을이탈리아와인이가져가지못하는현상을예상할수있음

Page 23: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

2014 Argentina

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 23

Am

ou

nts 8

$3.6

millio

n(2

.37%

)

Vo

lum

e 8

683to

ns(2

.05%

)

Page 24: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

Australia

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 24

Am

ou

nts 7

$7.8

millio

n(4

.42%

)

Vo

lum

e 6

1,2

81to

ns(4

.45%

)

Page 25: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

Austria

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 25

Am

ou

nts

11$190 th

ou

sa

nds(0

.11%

)

Vo

lum

e

11

12to

ns(0

.04%

)

Page 26: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

Chile

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 26

Am

ou

nts 2

$37.1

millio

n(2

0.9

%)

Vo

lum

e 1

8,0

78to

ns(2

8.0

8%

)

Page 27: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

France

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 27

Am

ou

nts 1

$55.5

millio

n(3

1.3

%)

Vo

lum

e 3

4,3

48to

ns(1

5.1

%)

Page 28: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

Germany

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 28

Am

ou

nts 9

$3.1

millio

n(1

.77%

)

Vo

lum

e 9

571to

ns(1

.98%

)

Page 29: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

Italy

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 29

Am

ou

nts 3

$29.8

millio

n(1

6.8

%)

Vo

lum

e 2

4,7

81to

ns(1

6.6

%)

Page 30: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

New Zealand

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 30

Am

ou

nts

10$1.9

millio

n(1

.07%

)

Vo

lum

e

10

201to

ns(0

.7%

)

Page 31: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

South Africa

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 31

Am

ou

nts 7

$4.2

millio

n(2

.37%

)

Vo

lum

e 6

1,6

97to

ns(5

.9%

)

Page 32: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

Spain

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 32

Am

ou

nts 5

$11.3

millio

n(6

.41%

)

Vo

lum

e 4

3,8

80to

ns(1

3.4

9%

)

Page 33: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

United States

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 33

Am

ou

nts 4

$20.4

millio

n(1

1.5

%)

Vo

lum

e 5

3,0

53to

ns(1

0.6

1%

)

Page 34: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

2015 trends in Korean wine market

수입사들의수익성악화

데일리와프리미엄시장의양극화

하나의메가트렌드로서 BYOB(Bring Your Own Bottle)

집에서즐기는와인트렌드의확산

경제여건악화로인한외식이아닌가정내와인소비증가(전체주류소비트렌드와유사)

비용절감을상쇄하는대외여건악화

환율의안정성과저유가트렌드가주는이익은미미

와인생산국의지속적인원가상승과유통마진감소는오히려외적요인을상쇄

다양화되는와인소비트렌드

브랜드만찾는트렌드에서나만의와인을찾는트렌드로이관

저알콜와인과화이트, 스파클링와인, 콜크가아닌병따개, 스크류형태의와인에대한수요증가

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 34

Page 35: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

Fields prospects부문 성장성 유의사항

와인관련도구 성장 • (14년과동일) 와인대중화에따라서가정별로와인잔, 와인오프너혹은관련인터리에소품관련수요가늘어날것으로봄.

와인교육: 성장• 다양한 형태의 초급 과정이 생기고 소믈리에 과정 등에 대한 다양한 커리큘럼이 증가하고 있어 다양한 과정에서 소비자들의

요구에부응할것으로봄

레스토랑와인시장 하락

• (14년과동일) 2015년의 BYOB 현상은더욱심화될것임

• 파인 와인의 매출 증대는 크게 기대하기 어려우며, 이에 대한 소비자들의 구매는 주로 해외 직구매를 통하여 이루어질 확률이높음.

마트와인시장 상승

• 시장의 상황을 조정할 수 있는 단계에 이르고 있으며, 자체 개발 와인이나 자체 정책에 따른 와인 기획, 행사가 진행될 것으로예견됨

• 제한된마트시장에진입하기위한메이저수입사들의경쟁이치열해질것으로봄

대형수입업체 보합

• 물량은증가하나수익은감소하는현상을맞이할것으로봄

• 환율에 따른 이익을 누리고자 하나 유통 부문에서 이러한 영역을 감안, 원가 조정을 강하게 요구할 것으로 보며, 시장 점유율유지를위해불가피하게이를수용할것임

• 수입다변화와포트폴리오다변화를꾀할것으로보이나안정화에는시간이소요

중형수입업체 하락

• 브랜드메이킹에있어공을들이게될것이나, 기존유통과마케팅방식에큰변화가일어날것으로예상됨

• 변화를 주기 위한 다각적인 노력이 있을 것으로 보나 브랜드의 유지, 수입 단가에 있어 수익성의 보장 등 다양한 면에 있어 딜레마를겪게될것으로예상됨

소형수입업체 보합• 1인수입사는증가할것으로보나확고부동한소비자층의확보를담보하지않는이상매출증대를확대하기힘들것으로봄

• 소셜네트워크기반마케팅등다양한형태의소비자채널확대노력이뒤따라야실질적인매출증대를꾀할수있음

와인숍 증가• 매장의대형화가가속될것으로보며, 수입보다는유통이와인시장의주도권을쥐게될것으로봄

• 소형이아닌수입사-숍-소비자형태로구성되는수직계열화시도가추가적으로나타날것으로봄

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 35

Page 36: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

Market trend for each country

Country Amount Volume

Argentina Increase Increase

Australia Increase Increase

Austria Neutral Decrease

Chile Increase Increase

France Decrease Decrease

Germany Decrease Decrease

Italy Increase Neutral

New Zealand Increase Increase

South Africa Increase Increase

Spain Increase Increase

United States Increase Decrease

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 36

Am

ou

nts

Vo

lum

e

Page 37: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

Wine data analysis method(1)

www.customs.go.kr 접속

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 37

무역통계클릭

Page 38: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

Wine data analysis method(2)

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 38

무역통계조회 > 수출입통계 >

품목별국가별수출입실적

22: 음료/주류선택2204: 포도주선택

Page 39: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

Wine data analysis method(3)

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 39

엑셀에서데이터정제- 국가명- 지역명- 수입금액의환산- 톤당평균가격등추가필드입력

Page 40: Analysis of korean wine market 20150331

Wine data analysis method(4)

Analysis of Korean wine market 2015 40

엑셀의피벗테이블과추가필드보강, 차트기능을이용하여분석