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2014 Election Updates & Insights
NCFEF is a non-partisan, nonprofit organization that conducts impartial, objective research and
analysis on candidates, campaigns, voter attitudes and demographic changes that impact
North Carolina’s political landscape.Joe StewartExecutive [email protected]
(919) 614-0520www.ncfef.org
@ncfef
NCFEF
2015 NCFEF Conventional Voting Behavior (CVB)
Partisan topography of NC
has shifted fromWest v. East
toUrban v. Rural
NC CVBCOMP
In URBAN – RURAL partisan alignment
SUBURBS = BATTLE GROUND
50%Non-
Native
Most RuralUrban State
Continued growth
2015 NCFEF Conventional Voting Behavior (CVB)
2015 NCFEF Conventional Voting Behavior (CVB)
2015 NCFEF Conventional Voting Behavior (CVB)
North Carolina – larger, more diverse, older
Total Populatio
nWhit
eBlac
kHispanic
Other 65+ 64 -
18 <18
1990
6,628,63775.6
%22.0
% 1.2% 1.2% 12.1%
63.5%
Med Age35.8
24.4%
2015
10,042,802
63.8%
22.1% 9.1% 5.0% 15.1
%
62.1%
Med Age
37.8
22.8%
NC’s Estimated Hispanic Population by 2050
30%
North Carolina’s Shifting Political Landscape
NC Population Growth Not Even49 NC counties have lost population since
2010(2014 Census Bureau Data)
Population growth brings greater
urbanization &
demographic diversity
Generational shift in partisan
and ideological orientation
Continued globalization
and of economy
Urbanization and Partisan Voting Performance
Year NC Population Growth
2010 9,535,475+507,327
2015 10,042,802MECKLENBUR
G WAKE
2010 919,628 900,9932015 1,034,070 1,024,198GAIN +114,442 +123,205
Big City Business Community
Annual Budget of Chambers of Commerce
Charlotte Chamber $8,360,551Raleigh Chamber $6,319,011
NC Chamber $4,931,226
Urbanization and Partisan Voting Performance
MECK WAKE
1988 Dukakis 40.2% 42.8%Bush 59.4% 56.9%
Urbanization and Partisan Voting Performance
MECK WAKE
2000 Gore 48.2% 46.0%Bush 51.0% 53.1%
1988 Dukakis 40.2% 42.8%Bush 59.4% 56.9%
Urbanization and Partisan Voting Performance
MECK WAKE
2012 Obama 60.8% 54.5%Romney 38.3% 44.2%
2000 Gore 48.2% 46.0%Bush 51.0% 53.1%
1988 Dukakis 40.2% 42.8%Bush 59.4% 56.9%
Urbanization and Partisan Voting Performance
MECK WAKE
2016 Clinton 62.3% 57.4%Trump 32.9% 37.2%
2012 Obama 60.8% 54.5%Romney 38.3% 44.2%
2000 Gore 48.2% 46.0%Bush 51.0% 53.1%
Partisan Ideological Trends 1998 - 2016Chart tracks the self-described ideology of North Carolina voters from
1998 – 2016. Source, North Carolina polling data from Capitol Communications, conducted by Diversified Research, Inc.
October 1998 October 2000 October 2012 October 2014 August 2015 April 2016
-40.00%
-20.00%
0.00%
20.00%
40.00%
60.00%
80.00%
100.00%
33.7% 29.5%
22.7%
24.0%16.4% 23.1%
14.5% 11.4%
-18.7% -12.2%-24.0% -19.2%
62.9% 59.2%
75.6% 79.1%70.4% 74.8%
16.2% 15.2%
24.8%
14.4% 16.4% 20.0%
Partisan Ideological Trends
North Carolina Democrats Republicans Unaffilated
Courtesy of Strategic Partners Solutions, LLC
Estimated NC Voter Reg by Generation
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 422920%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
2%4%
8%10%
16%18%
24%26% 27%
22% 23% 25% 25% 26% 26% 25%25% 27%
45% 43%41% 40%
36% 35%33% 32%
33%31%
29%26% 25%
22% 21%18% 17%
13%
Millennials Generation X Baby Boomer SilentDr. Michael BitzerCatawba College
RESEARCH TRIANGLE - 27 point swing08: D +21% 04: R +6%Obama v. Kerry = +130,339
Obama 2012: +18%
PIEDMONT TRIAD - 15 point swing 08: D +1% 04: R +14%
Obama v. Kerry = +81,319
Obama 2012: +2%
In NC, Obama (2008) won 334,876 more votes than Kerry (2004) in core Metros
CHARLOTTE METRO - 18 point swing08: D +7% 04: R +11%
Obama v. Kerry = +123,218
Obama 2012: +4%
2016 Election
2012 Early Voting
2016 Early Voting
2016 Early Voting
2016 Early Voting
2012: 738,570
2012: 1,682,053
Turnout
Year Early% of votes cast
Election Day
Turnout
% of reg voters
20082,476,411
56.88%1,809,166
4,353,739
69.93%
Turnout
Year Early% of votes cast
Election Day
Turnout
% of reg voters
20082,476,411
56.88%1,809,166
4,353,739
69.93%
20122,745,914
60.95%1,736,377
4,505,372
68.42%
Turnout
Year Early% of votes cast
Election Day
Turnout
% of reg voters
20082,476,411
56.88%1,809,166
4,353,739
69.93%
20122,745,914
60.95%1,736,377
4,505,372
68.42%
20163,102,834
65.8%1,612,924
4,715,758
68.2%
2016 President – Final Polls
2016 President – North Carolina
Trump
49.9%✔
Clinton
46.1%
Johnson
2.7%
2016 President – North Carolina
2016 President – Exit Polls
2016 President – Exit Polls
2016 President – Exit Polls
2016 President – Exit Polls
2016 US Senate – Final Polls
2016 US Senate
Haugh (L)
3.6%
Burr (R) – I
51.1%✔
Ross (D)
45.3%
2016 US Senate
NC Congressional Districts
DISTRICT, CVB, REGISTRATION WINNERNC 1 – Strong DEM: Bertie, Durham, Edgecombe, Gates, Granville,
Halifax, Hertford, Martin, Northampton, Pitt, Vance, Warren, Washington, Wilson
61.6%-15.3%-22.8%-0.3%
✔G. K. Butterfield (I) – 68.6%
NC 2 – Strong REP: Franklin, Harnett, Johnston, Nash, Wake, Wilson36.1%-34.7%-28.8%-0.5%
✔George Holding (I) – 56.7%
NC 3 – Lean REP: Beaufort, Camden, Carteret, Chowan, Craven, Currituck, Dare, Greene, Hyde, Jones, Lenoir, Onslow, Pamlico,
Pasquotank, Perquimans, Pitt, Tyrrell38.0%-31.8%-29.8%-0.4%
✔Walter B. Jones (I) – 67.3%
NC 4 – Strong DEM: Durham, Orange, Wake44.3%-20.8%-34.3%-0.6% ✔David Price (I) – 68.2%
NC 5 – Strong REP; Alexander, Alleghany, Ashe, Avery, Catawba, Forsyth, Stokes, Surry, Watauga, Wilkes, Yadkin
34.3%-37.9%-27.3%-0.4%✔Virginia Foxx (I) –
58.5%
NC 6 – Strong REP: Alamance, Caswell, Chatham, Guilford, Lee, Person, Randolph, Rockingham39.0%-33.6%-27.0%-0.4%
✔B. Mark Walker (I) – 59.3%
NC 7 – Lean REP: Bladen, Brunswick, Columbus, Duplin, Johnston, New Hanover, Pender, Sampson, Wayne
38.4%-32.7%-28.5%-0.4%✔David Rouzer (I) –
61.0%
2016 US House
DISTRICT, CVB, REGISTRATION WINNER
NC 8 – Lean REP: Cabarrus, Cumberland, Hoke, Montgomery, Moore, Rowan, Stanly
36.8%-33.8%-29.0%-0.4%✔Richard Hudson (I) –
58.8%
NC 9 – Strong REP: Anson, Bladen, Cumberland, Mecklenburg, Richmond, Robeson, Scotland, Union
40.9%-31.5%-27.3%-0.3%✔Robert Pittenger (I) –
58.3%
NC 10 – Strong REP: Buncombe, Catawba, Cleveland, Gaston, Iredell, Lincoln, Polk, Rutherford
34.6%-35.2%-29.8%-0.4%✔Patrick McHenry (I) –
63.1%
NC 11 – Strong REP: Buncombe, Burke, Caldwell, Cherokee, Clay, Graham, Haywood, Henderson, Jackson, Macon, Madison, McDowell,
Mitchell, Swain, Transylvania, Yancey31.9%-35.1%-32.5%-0.4%
✔Mark Meadows (I) – 64.1%
NC 12 – Strong DEM: Mecklenburg50.2%-20.7%-28.6%-0.5% ✔Alma Adams (I) – 67.0%
NC 13 – Lean REP OPEN SEAT: Davidson, Davie, Guilford, Iredell, Rowan
37.2%-35.0%-27.4%-0.4%✔Ted Budd – 56.1%
2016 US House
2016 NC Supreme CourtEdmunds Seat
Robert H. Edmunds R-
Guilford
45.5%
Michael MorganD-Wake
54.5%✔
CANDIDATES VOTE CANDIDATES VOTE
Linda Stephens (D) 48.7% ✔Valarie Zackery (R) 53.8%
✔Phil Berger, Jr. (R) 50.3% RickyeMcKoy-Mitchell (D) 46.2%
✔Bob Hunter (R) 54.4% ✔Richard Dietz (R) 53.5%Abe Jones (D) 45.6% Vince Rozier (D) 46.5%
OPEN SEAT
✔Hunter Murphy (R) 48.8%Margaret Eagles (D) 45.5%
Donald R. Buie (U) 5.7%
2016 NC Court of Appeals
2016 Governor
Cecil – (L) McCrory (R) - I Cooper - (D)
2016 Governor
Cecil (L)
2.2%
McCrory (R) – I
48.8%
Cooper (D)
49.0%✔
2016 Governor
HB2: Right Center v. Crap from your family in NJ
2012 Amendment One
Buncombe
48.5%
Watauga49.2%
Mecklenburg
48.8%
Chatham46.1%
Wake43.2%
Durham30.3%
Orange21.0%
Dare49.4%
POLL FAVOR HB2
OPPOSE HB2
NO OPINION
PPP (Apr 22 – 24) 36% 45% 19%ELON U (Apr 10 – 15) 49% 39% 11%
WRAL (Apr 8 – 11) 56% 34% 10%TWC (Apr 1 – 3) 51% 40% 9%
AVERAGE 48% 40% 12%
PPP (Aug 10) 58% Hurts NC22% Helps NC
CNN Poll (Aug 23)White Women
Burr/Ross 55% - 33%McCrory/Cooper 56% - 40%
HB2
RACE CANDIDATES VOTE
Lt. Governor✔Forest (I) – 51.9%Coleman – 45.3%
Cole – 2.9%
OPEN SEATAttorney General
Newton – 49.8%✔Stein – 50.2%
AuditorStuber – 49.9%
✔Wood (I) – 50.1%
Agriculture Commissioner
✔Troxler (I) – 55.6%Smith – 44.4%
Insurance Commissioner✔Causey – 50.4%
Goodwin (I) – 49.6%
2016 NC Council of State
RACE CANDIDATES VOTE
Labor Commission✔Berry (I) – 55.2%
Meeker – 44.7%
Secretary of StateLaPaglia – 47.8%
✔Marshall (I) – 52.5%
Superintendent of Public Instruction
✔Johnson – 50.6%
Atkinson (I) – 49.4%
OPEN SEATState Treasurer
✔Folwell – 52.7%
Blue – 47.3%
2016 NC Council of State
Votes Cast OfficeBallot Order
4,688,664 President-28,914 Governor 1-89,550 Lt. Governor 2
-125,967 Attorney General 3-164,620 Agriculture 5-168,139 Labor 7-176,506 Secretary of State 8-189,866 Public Instruction 9-194,889 Auditor 4-201,730 Insurance Commissioner 6-204,701 State Treasurer 10
2016 NC Council of State
2016 General Election – 50% of Votes
WAKE
MECKL
ENBU
RG
GUILFORD
FORSY
TH
DURHAM
BUNCOMBE
CUMBERLA
ND
NEW HAN
OVER
UNION
41.54%37.04%
40.58%46.26%
21.74%
40.77% 41.25%
51.03%
65.06%
37.92% 34.17% 37.02% 41.55%
19.79%
37.57% 41.87% 46.26%
63.58%
37.23% 32.90% 38.16% 42.66% 18.22% 40.11% 40.25% 49.55% 63.17%
BURR % McCRORY % TRUMP %
2016 General Election – Biggest Vote Margin
RANDOLP
H
DAVIDSO
N
UNION
GASTON
IREDEL
L
CATA
WBA -
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000 36,082 35,542
32,214 30,485 29,723
27,012
34,681 35,108 35,566 29,581 28,589 26,382
29,901 28,380 30,677 26,208 22,114 22,449
TRUMP V CLINTON BURR v ROSSMcCRORY v COOPER
NC General AssemblyDIST CVB RATING SR LR COMP LD SD
CURRENT
NC House74–45–1 59 14 8
3R 4D 1U 2 37NC
Senate34–16 24 6 4
4 GOP 0 16
NC General AssemblyDIST CVB RATING SR LR COMP LD SD
CURRENT
NC House74–45–1 59 14 8
3R 4D 1U 2 37NC
Senate34–16 24 6 4
4 GOP 0 162017
NC House74–46 59
57D 2D1412R 2D
84R 4D 2 37
1R 36D
NC Senate35–15 24 6 4
4 GOP 0 161R 15D
Observations on 2016 Election
CVB for NC SENATE 34 REP – 16 DEMSTRONG DEM (16) COMPETITIVE (4) LEAN REP (6) STRONG REP (24)
28 RobinsonGuilford
21
ClarkHoke
19 MeredithCumberland
8 RabonBrunswick
50 DavisMacon
24 GunnAlamance
39
Rucho (NR)Mecklenburg
40 Waddell*Mecklenburg
5 DavisGreene
1 CookBeaufort
9 Lee*New Hanover
46 DanielBurke
47 HiseMitchell
31
KrawiecForsyth
38 FordMecklenburg
13
Smith*Robeson
25 McInnis*Richmond
15 Alexander*Wake
27 WadeGuilford
2 SandersonPamlico
44
CurtisLincoln
14 BlueWake
23
FousheeOrange
18 BarefootWake
10 B. JacksonSampson
11Newton
(NR)Wilson
45 Ballard**Watauga
35
TuckerUnion
20 McKissickDurham
22
WoodardDurham
12 RabinHarnett
6 BrownOnslow
48 Apodaca (NR)Henderson
42
Wells*Catawba
4 BryantNash
37
J. JacksonMecklenburg
17 BarringerWake
41 TarteMecklenburg
36 Hartsell (NR)Cabarrus
33
Bingham (NR)Davidson
3Smith-
Ingram*Edgecombe
16
Chaudhuri**Wake
26 BergerRockingham
43 HarringtonGaston
30
RandlemanWilkes
32 Lowe*Forsyth
49
Van Duyn*Buncombe
*freshman **appointeditalics = winner
NR = not running in 20167 Pate
Wayne34 Brock
Davie29
TillmanRandolph
CVB for NC SENATE 35 REP – 15 DEMSTRONG DEM (16) COMPETITIVE (4) LEAN REP (6) STRONG REP (24)
28 RobinsonGuilford
21
ClarkHoke
19 MeredithCumberland
8 RabonBrunswick
50 DavisMacon
24 GunnAlamance
39
BISHOPMecklenburg
40 WaddellMecklenburg
5 DavisGreene
1 CookBeaufort
9 LeeNew Hanover
46 DanielBurke
47 HiseMitchell
31
KrawiecForsyth
38 FordMecklenburg
13
BrittRobeson
25 McInnisRichmond
15 AlexanderWake
27 WadeGuilford
2 SandersonPamlico
44
CurtisLincoln
14 BlueWake
23
FousheeOrange
18 BarefootWake
10 B. JacksonSampson
11 HORNERWilson
45 BallardWatauga
35
TuckerUnion
20 McKissickDurham
22
WoodardDurham
12 RabinHarnett
6 BrownOnslow
48 EDWARDSHenderson
42
WellsCatawba
4 BryantNash
37
J. JacksonMecklenburg
17 BarringerWake
41 TarteMecklenburg
36 NEWTONCabarrus
33
DUNNDavidson
3Smith-Ingram
Edgecombe
16
CHAUDHURIWake
26 BergerRockingham
43 HarringtonGaston
30
RandlemanWilkes
32 LoweForsyth
49
Van DuynBuncombe
7 PateWayne
34 BrockDavie
29
TillmanRandolph
CVB for NC SENATE 35 REP – 15 DEMSTRONG DEM (16) COMPETITIVE (4) LEAN REP (6) STRONG REP (24)
28 RobinsonGuilford
21
ClarkHoke
19 MeredithCumberland
8 RabonBrunswick
50 DavisMacon
24 GunnAlamance
39
BISHOPMecklenburg
40 WaddellMecklenburg
5 DavisGreene
1 CookBeaufort
9 LeeNew Hanover
46 DanielBurke
47 HiseMitchell
31
KrawiecForsyth
38 FordMecklenburg
13
BrittRobeson
25 McInnisRichmond
15 AlexanderWake
27 WadeGuilford
2 SandersonPamlico
44
CurtisLincoln
14 BlueWake
23
FousheeOrange
18 BarefootWake
10 B. JacksonSampson
11 HORNERWilson
45 BallardWatauga
35
TuckerUnion
20 McKissickDurham
22
WoodardDurham
12 RabinHarnett
6 BrownOnslow
48 EDWARDSHenderson
42
WellsCatawba
4 BryantNash
37
J. JacksonMecklenburg
17 BarringerWake
41 TarteMecklenburg
36 NEWTONCabarrus
33
DUNNDavidson
3Smith-Ingram
Edgecombe
16
CHAUDHURIWake
26 BergerRockingham
43 HarringtonGaston
30
RandlemanWilkes
32 LoweForsyth
49
Van DuynBuncombe
7 PateWayne
34 BrockDavie
29
TillmanRandolph
NC Senate DistrictsIn Lawsuit
DIST CVB WINNER
3 SD Erica Smith-Ingram5 SD Don Davis6 SR Harry Brown7 SR Louis Pate8 LR Bill Rabon
10 LR Brent Jackson14 SD Dan Blue26 SR Phil Berger29 SR Jerry Tillman31 SR Joyce Krawiec32 SD Paul Lowe34 SR Andrew C. Brock35 SR Tommy Tucker42 SR Andy Wells43 SR Kathy Harrington
2016 NC Senate – WINNERS
2016 NC SENATEDIST CVB POP +/- LBR CANDIDATES
1 CO 1,165 80.0✔Bill Cook (I) – 59.2%
Brownie Futrell – 40.8%
2 SR 3,151 90.0✔Norman Sanderson (I) – 66.3%
Dorothea White – 33.7%
4 SD -3,495 45.0✔Angela R. Bryant (I) – 67.7%
Richard Scott – 32.3%
9 LR 13,579 90.0✔Michael Lee (I) – 57.4%
Andrew Barnhill – 42.6%
2016 NC SENATE
DIST CVB POP +/- LBR CANDIDATES
12 LR 15,450 90.0✔Ronald Rabin (I) – 57.6%
Susan Byerly – 42.4%
13 SD -553 54.2Jane W. Smith (I) – 44.8%
✔Danny Earl (JR) Britt – 55.2%
15 LR 16,411 65.0
✔John Alexander (I) – 50.0%
Laurel Deegan-Fricke – 45.7%
Brad Hessell – 4.3%
2016 NC SENATE
DIST CVB POP +/- LBR CANDIDATES
17 LR 27,427 80.0
✔Tamara Barringer (I) – 48.3%
Susan Evans – 47.5%
Susan Hogarth – 4.2%
18 CO 16,934 90.0✔Chad Barefoot (I) – 55.4%
Gil Johnson – 44.6%
19 CO 5,560 78.9✔Wesley Meredith (I) – 56.5%
Toni Morris – 43.5%
2016 NC SENATEDIST CVB POP +/- LBR CANDIDATES
20 SD 9,597 32.5✔Floyd B. McKissick, Jr. (I) – 81.6%
Barbara Howe – 18.4%
21 SD 5,996 77.5✔Ben Clark (I) – 71.8%
Dan Travieso – 28.2%
22 SD 14,891 52.3✔Mike Woodard (I) – 65.5%
Greg Doucette – 34.5%
23 SD 11,812 37.2✔Valerie P. Foushee (I) – 68.0%
Mary Lopez Carter – 32.0%
2016 NC SENATEDIST CVB POP +/- LBR CANDIDATES
24 SR 4,950 95.0✔Rick Gunn (I) – 60.9%
John Thorpe – 39.1%
25 CO -2,603 90.0✔Tom McInnis (I) – 63.9%
Dannie Montgomery – 36.1%
27 SR 9,258 90.0✔Trudy Wade (I) – 53.2%
Michael Garrett – 46.8%
28 SD 7,432 28.6✔Gladys A. Robinson (I) – 83.8%
Devin R. King – 16.2%
2016 NC SENATE
DIST CVB POP +/- LBR CANDIDATES
30 SR -2,189 90.0✔Shirley Randleman (I) – 72.6%
Michael Holleman – 27.4%
37 SD 15,790 38.2✔Jeff Jackson (I) – 67.9%
Bob Diamond – 32.1%
38 SD 22,663 70.0✔Joel Ford (I) – 79.2%
Richard Rivette – 20.8%
2016 NC SENATEDIST CVB POP +/- LBR CANDIDATES
40 SD 12,219 35.8✔Joyce Waddell (I) – 82.4%Marguerite Cooke – 17.6%
41 SR 28,598 90.0✔Jeff Tarte (I) – 54.6%
Jonathan Hudson – 40.6%Chris Cole – 4.8%
44 SR 8,165 90.0✔David L. Curtis (I) – 77.3%
Nick Haag – 22.7%
46 SR -2,428 80.5✔Warren Daniel (I) – 66.2%
Anne Fischer – 33.8%
2016 NC SENATE
DIST CVB POP +/- LBR CANDIDATES
47 SR -1,473 85.8✔Ralph Hise (I) – 64.9%
Mary Jane Boyd – 35.1%
49 SD 8,910 45.0✔Terry Van Duyn (I) – 74.4%
William Meredith – 24.6%
50 SR 865 87.5✔Jim Davis (I) – 62.5%
Jane Hipps – 37.5%
2016 OPEN SEAT RACES – NC SENATEDIST & INCUMBENT CVB POP +/- LBR CANDIDATES
11NEWTON (R)
SR
4,638
79.4
✔Rick Horner – 61.2%Albert Pacer – 38.8%
16STEIN (D) SD 17,905
40.0
Eric Weaver – 34.7%✔Jay Chaudhuri – 65.3%
33BINGHAM (R) SR
791
85.8
✔Cathy Dunn – 71.6%Jim Beall Graham – 28.4%
36HARTSELL (R) SR 14,784 85.5
✔Paul R. Newton – 62.6%Robert Brown – 37.4%
2016 OPEN SEAT RACES – NC SENATE
DIST & INCUMBENT CVB POP +/- LBR CANDIDATES
39RUCHO (R)
SR
13,641 83.0
✔Dan Bishop – 56.8%
Lloyd Scher – 43.2%
45SOUCEK (R) SR -519 85.0
✔Deanna Ballard – 65.0%
Art Sherwood – 35.0%
48APODACA (R) SR 7,675
95.0
✔Chuck Edwards – 62.0%
Norman Bossert – 38.0%
STRONG DEM (37) LEAN REP (14) STRONG REP (59)
29 L. HallDurham
114
FisherBuncombe 66 Goodman
Richmond118
PresnellYancey
55
BrodyUnion 86 Blackwell
Burke110
HastingsGaston 96 Adams*
Catawba
106
CunninghamMecklenburg 42 Lucas
Cumberland 39 JacksonWake
49
Pendleton*Wake
14
ClevelandOnslow 82 Pittman
Cabarrus 77 WarrenRowan 69 Arp
Union
102
CarneyMecklenburg 5 Hunter
Hertford 50 MeyerOrange 9 Murphy**
Pitt36
DollarWake 15 Shepard
Onslow 98 Bradford*Mecklenburg 13 McElraft
Carteret
31 MichauxDurham 32
Baskerville (NR)Garrison
VanceLEAN DEM (2) 4
5Szoka
Cumberland40
AvilaWake
109
BumgardnerGaston 91 Hall**
Stokes 81 Brown (NR)Davidson
33 GillWake 72 Hanes
Forsyth 54 ReivesLee
63
RossAlamance
37
Stam (NR)Wake 26 Daughtry (NR)
Johnston 74 ConradForsyth 87
Robinson(D. Hall)Caldwell
99 R. MooreMecklenburg
100
Cotham (NR)Autry
Mecklenburg44 Richardson**
Cumberland53
LewisHarnett
62
BlustGuilford 16 Millis
Pender104
Bishop (NR)Mecklenburg 76 Ford
Rowan
38 Lewis HolleyWake 23 Willingham*
Edgecombe COMP (8) 93
JordanAshe
111
T. MooreCleveland 83 Johnson
Cabarrus 10 J. BellWayne 95 Fraley
Iredell
60 Brockman*Guilford 47 C. Graham
Robeson 119 QueenHaywood 1 Steinburg
Chowan75
LambethForsyth 19 Davis
New Hanover 84 R. TurnerIredell 89 Setzer
Catawba
58 Sgro*Guilford 30 Luebke
Durham 2 Yarborough*Person
65
JonesRockingham
88
BryanMecklenburg 4 Dixon
Duplin 17 IlerBrunswick 68 Horn
Union
107
AlexanderMecklenburg 43 Floyd
Cumberland 22 BrissonBladen 3 Speciale
Craven25
CollinsNash 59 Hardister
Guilford108
TorbettGaston 94 Elmore
Wilkes
56 InskoOrange 21 L. Bell
Sampson 92 Moore**Mecklenburg
51
Salmon*Harnett
103
BrawleyMecklenburg 61 Faircloth
Guilford105
Schaffer (NR)Mecklenburg 79 Howard
Davie
24Farmer-
ButterfieldWilson
7 RichardsonFranklin 115 Ager*
Buncombe64
RiddellAlamance
Catlin (NR)Grange
New Hanover52 Boles
Moore 97 SaineLincoln
48 PierceScotland 18 Hamilton
New Hanover 6 Tine (NR)Dare
116
B. Turner*Buncombe
Rogers**Rutherford
117
McGradyHenderson 85 Dobson
McDowell
71 TerryForsyth 34 G. Martin
Wake 8 S. MartinWilson
35
MaloneWake
Whitmire (NR)Transylvania
120
West (NR)Cherokee 73 Zachary*
Yadkin
57 HarrisonGuilford 12 Graham
Lenoir 41 Adcock*Wake 28 Langdon (NR)
Johnston 80 WatfordDavidson
27 WrayNorthampton 11 D. Hall
Wake *freshman **appointed italics = winnerNR = not running in 2016
90 StevensSurry 70 Hurley
Randolph
101
EarleMecklenburg 46 Waddell (NR)
Columbus 67 BurrStanly 78 McNeill
Randolph
CVB for NC HOUSE 74 REP – 45 DEM – 1 UNA
STRONG DEM (37) LEAN REP (14) STRONG REP (59)
29 L. HallDurham
114
FisherBuncombe 66 Goodman
Richmond118
PresnellYancey
55
BrodyUnion
86
BlackwellBurke
110
HastingsGaston 96 Adams
Catawba
106
CunninghamMecklenburg 42 Lucas
Cumberland 39 JacksonWake
49
BALLWake
14
ClevelandOnslow
82
PittmanCabarrus 77 Warren
Rowan 69 ArpUnion
102
CarneyMecklenburg 5 Hunter
Hertford 50 MeyerOrange 9 MURPHY
Pitt36
DollarWake
15
ShepardOnslow 98 Bradford
Mecklenburg 13 McElraftCarteret
31 MichauxDurham 32 GARRISON
Vance LEAN DEM (2) 45
SzokaCumberland
40
JOHNWake
109
BumgardnerGaston 91 K. HALL
Stokes 81 POTTSDavidson
33 GillWake 72 Hanes
Forsyth 54 ReivesLee
63
RossAlamance
37
HUNT-WILLIAMS
Wake26
WHITEJohnston 74 Conrad
Forsyth 87 D. HALLCaldwell
99 R. MooreMecklenburg
100
AUTRYMecklenburg 44 Richardson
Cumberland53
LewisHarnett
62
BlustGuilford
16
MillisPender
104
DULINMecklenburg 76 Ford
Rowan
38 Lewis HolleyWake 23 Willingham
Edgecombe COMP (8) 93
JordanAshe
111
T. MooreCleveland
83
JohnsonCabarrus 10 J. Bell
Wayne 95 FraleyIredell
60 BrockmanGuilford 47 C. Graham
Robeson 119 CLAMPITTHaywood 1 Steinburg
Chowan75
LambethForsyth
19
DavisNew Hanover 84 R. Turner
Iredell 89 SetzerCatawba
58 QUICKGuilford 30 Luebke*
Durham 2 YarboroughPerson
65
JonesRockingham
88
BELKMecklenburg 4 Dixon
Duplin 17 IlerBrunswick 68 Horn
Union
107
AlexanderMecklenburg 43 Floyd
Cumberland 22 BrissonBladen 3 Speciale
Craven25
CollinsNash
59
HardisterGuilford
108
TorbettGaston 94 Elmore
Wilkes
56 InskoOrange 21 L. Bell
Sampson 92 BEASLEYMecklenburg
51
SAULSHarnett
103
BrawleyMecklenburg
61
FairclothGuilford
105
STONEMecklenburg 79 Howard
Davie
24Farmer-
ButterfieldWilson
7 RichardsonFranklin 115 Ager
Buncombe64
RiddellAlamance
20
GRANGENew Hanover 52 Boles
Moore 97 SaineLincoln
48 PierceScotland 18 Hamilton
New Hanover 6 BOSWELLDare
116
B. TurnerBuncombe
112
ROGERSRutherford
117
McGradyHenderson 85 Dobson
McDowell
71 TerryForsyth 34 G. Martin
Wake 8 S. MartinWilson
35
MaloneWake
113
HENSONTransylvania
120
CORBINCherokee 73 Zachary
Yadkin
57 HarrisonGuilford 12 Graham
Lenoir 41 AdcockWake 28 STRICKLAND
Johnston 80 WatfordDavidson
27 WrayNorthampton 11 D. Hall
Wake 90 StevensSurry 70 Hurley
Randolph
101
EarleMecklenburg 46 B. JONES
Columbus 67 BurrStanly 78 McNeill
Randolph
CVB for NC HOUSE 74 REP – 46 DEM
STRONG DEM (37) LEAN REP (14) STRONG REP (59)
29 L. HallDurham
114
FisherBuncombe 66 Goodman
Richmond118
PresnellYancey
55
BrodyUnion
86
BlackwellBurke
110
HastingsGaston 96 Adams
Catawba
106
CunninghamMecklenburg 42 Lucas
Cumberland 39 JacksonWake
49
BALLWake
14
ClevelandOnslow
82
PittmanCabarrus 77 Warren
Rowan 69 ArpUnion
102
CarneyMecklenburg 5 Hunter
Hertford 50 MeyerOrange 9 MURPHY
Pitt36
DollarWake
15
ShepardOnslow 98 Bradford
Mecklenburg 13 McElraftCarteret
31 MichauxDurham 32 GARRISON
Vance LEAN DEM (2) 45
SzokaCumberland
40
JOHNWake
109
BumgardnerGaston 91 K. HALL
Stokes 81 POTTSDavidson
33 GillWake 72 Hanes
Forsyth 54 ReivesLee
63
RossAlamance
37
HUNT-WILLIAMS
Wake26
WHITEJohnston 74 Conrad
Forsyth 87 D. HALLCaldwell
99 R. MooreMecklenburg
100
AUTRYMecklenburg 44 Richardson
Cumberland53
LewisHarnett
62
BlustGuilford
16
MillisPender
104
DULINMecklenburg 76 Ford
Rowan
38 Lewis HolleyWake 23 Willingham
Edgecombe COMP (8) 93
JordanAshe
111
T. MooreCleveland
83
JohnsonCabarrus 10 J. Bell
Wayne 95 FraleyIredell
60 BrockmanGuilford 47 C. Graham
Robeson 119 CLAMPITTHaywood 1 Steinburg
Chowan75
LambethForsyth
19
DavisNew Hanover 84 R. Turner
Iredell 89 SetzerCatawba
58 QUICKGuilford 30 Luebke*
Durham 2 YarboroughPerson
65
JonesRockingham
88
BELKMecklenburg 4 Dixon
Duplin 17 IlerBrunswick 68 Horn
Union
107
AlexanderMecklenburg 43 Floyd
Cumberland 22 BrissonBladen 3 Speciale
Craven25
CollinsNash
59
HardisterGuilford
108
TorbettGaston 94 Elmore
Wilkes
56 InskoOrange 21 L. Bell
Sampson 92 BEASLEYMecklenburg
51
SAULSHarnett
103
BrawleyMecklenburg
61
FairclothGuilford
105
STONEMecklenburg 79 Howard
Davie
24Farmer-
ButterfieldWilson
7 RichardsonFranklin 115 Ager
Buncombe64
RiddellAlamance
20
GRANGENew Hanover 52 Boles
Moore 97 SaineLincoln
48 PierceScotland 18 Hamilton
New Hanover 6 BOSWELLDare
116
B. TurnerBuncombe
112
ROGERSRutherford
117
McGradyHenderson 85 Dobson
McDowell
71 TerryForsyth 34 G. Martin
Wake 8 S. MartinWilson
35
MaloneWake
113
HENSONTransylvania
120
CORBINCherokee 73 Zachary
Yadkin
57 HarrisonGuilford 12 Graham
Lenoir 41 AdcockWake 28 STRICKLAND
Johnston 80 WatfordDavidson
27 WrayNorthampton 11 D. Hall
Wake 90 StevensSurry 70 Hurley
Randolph
101
EarleMecklenburg 46 B. JONES
Columbus 67 BurrStanly 78 McNeill
Randolph
CVB for NC HOUSE 74 REP – 46 DEM
NC House DistrictsIn Lawsuit
2016 NC House – WINNERSDIST CVB INCUMBENT DIST CVB INCUMBENT DIST CVB INCUMBENT
4 SR Jimmy Dixon 48 SD Garland E. Pierce 78 SR Allen McNeill
5 SD Howard Hunter III 52 SR Jamie Boles 79 SR Julia Howard
12 SD George Graham 56 SD Verla Insko 80 SR Sam Watford
14 SR George G. Cleveland 57 SD Pricey Harrison 85 SR Josh Dobson
19 SR Ted Davis, Jr. 60 SD Cecil Brockman 89 SR Mitchell Setzer
21 SD Larry M. Bell 61 SR John Faircloth 95 SR John Fraley
22 COMP William D. Brisson 62 SR John Blust 96 SR Jay Adams
23 SD Shelly Willingham 63 LR Steve Ross 97 SR Jason Saine
24 SD Jean Farmer-Butterfield 64 LR Dennis Riddell 99 SD Rodney Moore
27 SD Michael Wray 66 SD Ken Goodman 102 SD Becky Carney
29 SD Larry Hall 68 SR Craig Horn 106 SD Carla Cunningham
31 SD Mickey Michaux 71 SD Evelyn Terry 107 SD Kelly Alexander
33 SD Rosa Gill 72 SD Ed Hanes 108 SR John A. Torbett
39 SD Darren Jackson 73 SR Lee Zachary 110 SR Kelly Hastings
42 SD Marvin W. Lucas 75 SR Donny Lambeth 111 SR Tim Moore
43 SD Elmer Floyd 76 SR Carl Ford 114 SD Susan C. Fisher
45 LR John Szoka 77 SR Harry Warren 116 LR Brian Turner
47 SD Charles Graham 117 SR Chuck McGrady
2016 NC HOUSEDIST CVB POP +/- LBR CANDIDATES
1 LR 768 92.5 ✔Bob Steinburg (I) – 64.1%Sam Davis – 35.9%
2 CO -1,605 85 ✔Larry Yarborough (I) – 60.6%Joe Parish – 39.4%
3 LR 368 71.7 ✔Michael Speciale (I) – 64.9%Marva Fisher Baldwin – 35.1%
7 SD -72 44.2 ✔Bobbie J. Richardson (I) – 67.8% William D. Hancock II – 32.2%
2016 NC HOUSEDIST CVB POP +/- LBR CANDIDATES
8 CO 1,861 90 ✔Susan Martin (I) – 50.2%Charlie Patt Farris – 49.8%
10 SR 8,137 92.5 ✔John R. Bell (I) – 71.7%Evelyn Paul – 28.3%
11 SD 5,646 54.2✔Duane Hall (I) – 60.8%
Ray Martin – 32.0%Brian Lewis – 7.2%
13 SR 2,265 95 ✔Pat McElraft (I) – 70.8%Rodney Alexander – 29.2%
2016 NC HOUSEDIST CVB POP +/- LBR CANDIDATES
15 SR 811 90 ✔Phillip Shepard (I) – 69.6%Dan Whitten – 30.4%
16 SR 7,204 81.7 ✔Chris W. Millis (I) – 67.1%Steve Unger – 32.9%
17 SR 7,812 90 ✔Frank Iler (I) – 66.4%Charles Warren – 33.6%
18 SD 4,737 68.9 ✔Susi Hamilton (I) – 61.1%Gerald Benton – 39.9%
2016 NC HOUSEDIST CVB POP +/- LBR CANDIDATES
25 SR 830 85.5 ✔Jeff Collins (I) – 68.1%James D. Gailliard – 31.9%
30 SD 11,548 11.3 ✔Paul Luebke (I) – 73.9%Elissa Fuchs – 26.1%
34 SD 2,625 29.1 ✔Grier Martin (I) – 67.6%Bill Morris – 32.4%
35 LR 14,184 69.2 ✔Chris Malone (I) – 53.1%Terrence Everitt – 46.9%
2016 NC HOUSEDIST CVB POP +/- LBR CANDIDATES
36 SR 6,399 85.8✔Nelson Dollar (I) – 49.3%
Jennifer Ferrell – 46.5%Brian Irving – 4.2%
38 SD 9,300 35.8 ✔Yvonne Lewis Holley (I) – 84.8%Olen Watson III – 15.2%
40 SR 13,125 73.9Marilyn Avila (I) – 49.6%
✔Joe John – 50.4%
41 CO 15,176 54.2 ✔Gale Adcock (I) – 57.0%Chris Shoffner – 43.0%
2016 NC HOUSE
DIST CVB POP +/- LBR CANDIDATES
44 LD 1,998 50 ✔Billy Richardson (I) – 50.6%Jim Arp – 49.4%
49 LR 2,346 66.8
Gary Pendleton (I) – 47.2%
✔Cynthia Ball – 48.7%David Ulmer – 4.1%
50 SD 6,127 51.8 ✔Graig R. Meyer (I) – 57.2%Rod Chaney – 42.8%
2016 NC HOUSE
DIST CVB POP +/- LBR CANDIDATES
51 LR 5,706 76.7Brad Salmon (I) – 44.3%
✔John Sauls – 55.7%
53 LR 7,740 90.5 ✔David R. Lewis (I) – 60.7%Jon Blum – 39.3%
54 LD 5,531 50 ✔Robert T. Reives II (I) – 57.2%Wesley Seawell – 42.8%
2016 NC HOUSE
DIST CVB POP +/- LBR CANDIDATES
55 SR 683 85.8 ✔Mark Brody (I) – 60.5%Kim Hargett – 39.5%
59 SR 5,676 81.7 ✔Jon Hardister (I) – 60.4%Scott Jones – 39.6%
65 LR -2,516 85.8 ✔Bert Jones (I) – 60.5%H. Keith Duncan – 39.5%
2016 NC HOUSEDIST CVB POP +/- LBR CANDIDATES
67 SR -472 81.7✔Justin P. Burr (I) – 53.3%Carson R. Snyder – 27.7%
Billy Mills – 19.0%
69 SR 6,387 90.8 ✔Dean Arp (I) – 66.0%Gordon Daniels – 34.0%
70 SR 605 85.8 ✔Pat B. Hurley (I) – 76.2% Lois Bohnsack – 23.8%
74 SR 1,963 85.8 ✔Debra Conrad (I) – 63.5%Marilyn Baker – 36.5%
2016 NC HOUSEDIST CVB POP +/- LBR CANDIDATES
82 SR 9,031 69.2 ✔Larry G. Pittman (I) – 57.9%Earle Schecter – 42.1%
83 SR 4,343 90 ✔Linda P. Johnson (I) – 63.2%Jeremy Hachen - 36.8%
84 SR 1,890 90 ✔Rena W. Turner (I) – 69.3%John Wayne Kahl – 30.7%
86 SR -161 85.5 ✔Hugh Blackwell (I) – 62.5%Tim Barnsback – 37.5%
2016 NC HOUSEDIST CVB POP +/- LBR CANDIDATES
88 SR 1,353 92.5Rob Bryan (I) – 49.4%✔Mary Belk – 50.6%
90 SR -737 90 ✔Sarah Stevens (I) – 73.2%Vera Smith Reynolds – 26.8%
93 LR 1,326 81.7 ✔Jonathan C. Jordan (I) – 53.0%Sue Counts – 47.0%
94 SR -729 85 ✔Jeffrey Elmore (I) – 74.5%Michael Lentz – 25.5%
98 SR 13,475 90 ✔John Bradford (I) – 56.5%Jane Campbell – 43.5%
2016 NC HOUSE
DIST CVB POP +/- LBR CANDIDATES
118 LR 508 85.8 ✔Michele D. Presnell (I) – 55.4%Rhonda C. Schandevel – 44.6%
119 CO 1,119 48.3Joe Sam Queen (I) – 49.6%
✔Mike Clampitt – 50.4%
2016 OPEN SEAT RACES – NC HOUSE
HOUSE DISTINCUMBENT CVB POP +/- LBR CANDIDATES
6TINE (U) CO 238 90.0 ✔Beverly Boswell – 51.9%
Warren Judge – 48.1%
9B. BROWN (R) LR 3,747 90.0 ✔Greg Murphy – 57.5%
Brian Farkas – 42.5%
20CATLIN (R) SR 6,747 78.9 ✔Holly Grange – 100%
26DAUGHTRY (R) SR 8,091 95.0 ✔Donna M. White – 58.0%
Rich Nixon – 42.0%
28LANGDON (R) SR 4,368 85.8 ✔Larry C. Strickland – 70.7%
Patricia Oliver – 29.3%
2016 OPEN SEAT RACES – NC HOUSE
HOUSE DISTRICTINCUMBENT CVB POP
+/-INCLBR CANDIDATES
32B’VILLE (D) SD -1,692 40.8 ✔Terry Garrison – 100%
37STAM (R) SR 12,046 85.8
✔Linda Hunt-Williams – 52.3% Randy Barrow – 43.0%
Robert Rose – 4.7%
46WADDELL (D) SD -1,093 85.0
✔Brenden Jones – 60.4%Tim Benton – 36.4%
Thomas (Tom) Howell Jr – 3.2%
2016 OPEN SEAT RACES – NC HOUSE
HOUSE DISTRICTINCUMBENT CVB POP +/- LBR CANDIDATES
58JOHNSON (D) SD 1,995 ✔Amos Quick – 100%
81R. BROWN (R) SR 663 80.0 ✔Larry W. Potts – 68.4%
Andy Herick – 31.6%
91H’WAY (R) SR 1,050 85.8 ✔Kyle Hall – 66.4%
Eugene Russell – 33.6%
2016 OPEN SEAT RACES – NC HOUSEHOUSE DISTRICT
INCUMBENT CVB POP+/-
INCLBR CANDIDATES
92JETER (R) CO 15,160 86.7
Beth Danae Caulfield – 44.6%
✔Chaz Beasley – 54.4%
100COTHAM (D) SD 1,692 59.3 ✔John Autry - 100%
104BISHOP (R) SR 1,417 85.0 ✔Andy Dulin – 55.3%
Peter Noris – 44.7%
105SCHAFFER (R) SR 12,855 85.0 ✔Scott Stone – 55.3%
Connie Green-Johnson – 44.7%
2016 NC HOUSEDIST CVB POP +/- LBR CANDIDATES
101 SD 10,098 45 ✔Beverly Miller Earle (I) – 76.0%Justin Dunn – 24.0%
103 SR 6,714 90.5 ✔Bill Brawley (I) – 56.2%Rochelle Rivas – 43.8%
109 SR 1,476 77.5 ✔Dana Bumgardner (I) – 61.2%Susan Maxon – 38.8%
115 CO 3,778 50 ✔John Ager (I) – 55.6%Frank Moretz – 44.4%
2016 OPEN SEAT RACES – NC HOUSE
HOUSE DISTRICTINCUMBENT CVB POP +/- LBR CANDIDATES
112HAGER (R) SR -2,475 95.0 ✔David Rogers – 71.0%
Ben Edwards – 29.0%
113WHITMIRE (R) SR 757 90.0 ✔Cody Henson – 61.6%
Maureen M. Copelof – 38.4%
120WEST (R) SR -573 95.0 ✔Kevin Corbin –72.0%
Randy Hogsed – 28.0%
Observations on 2016 Election• This is the new North Carolina – electoral
landscape has shifted and will continue to
• Urban versus Rural with battleground Suburbs … for now
• Charlie dominates, but watch Asheville & Wilmington (and others)
• Candidates and issue communication matter a lot more
• Millennials on the rise – as candidates
What does 2016 mean for 2018
• First midterm of new President historically goes against their party
• Probably within start of next economic slowdown
• New state legislative district maps + 2017 election
• No US Senate race in NC (state Sup Court seat)
• Follows two years of gridlock or HB2-type stuff
• More civil unrest, incidents of terrorism
What can business do?
• Be your own party
What can business do?
• Inform your workforce
What can business do?
• Commit to engagement
2014 Election Updates & Insights
Questions?
Joe StewartExecutive [email protected]
(919) 614-0520
www.ncfef.org
@ncfef
NCFEF