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Dr. Ahmed-Refat AG Refat www.Slideshare.net/AhmedRefat Risk Management System, 2012 1 Risk Management System In Occupational Health Setting خاطر إدارة اهنية الصحة اال Dr. Ahmed-Refat AG Refat Prof. Occupational Medicine Tibsah University, KSA 2012

Risk Analysis in Occupational Health Setting

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Page 1: Risk Analysis in Occupational Health Setting

Dr. Ahmed-Refat AG Refat www.Slideshare.net/AhmedRefat Risk Management System, 2012

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Risk Management System

In Occupational Health Setting

إدارة املخاطر

يف جمال الصحة املهنية

Dr. Ahmed-Refat AG Refat

Prof. Occupational Medicine

Tibsah University, KSA

2012

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موقع مخصص للعروض التقديمية وضعت فيه اكثر من...................... 20 PPT و 4.................................... كتب علمية انصح بزيارته للاستفادة منه و نسألكم الدعاء ......
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Basic Concepts and Definitions

1- Hazard and Risk

Hazard

A source of potential harm

Anything that has the potential to

cause harm

A factor or exposure that may

adversely affect health.

Risk

Risk = The probability that an adverse event will

occur

Risk = The chance of something happening that

will have an impact on objectives.

Risk was measured in terms of

Consequences and the Likelihood

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خطر ج أخطار مخاطرة ج مخاطر -------------------- خطر اختطار ------------------
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مفهوم ثنائي ...... حدي... Yes & No Present or Absent Qualitative Nominal Scale 0 or 1
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In Epidemilogy Risk=The probability that an event will occur
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Severity , Impact,
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Likelihood= Chance/probability..... X Exposure.
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2 - Risk Management System " RMS"

RMS is an ongoing process of identifying,

quantifying and ranking risks and their

associated losses, and developing cost

effective management strategies to

eliminate or control the risks.

Risk Evaluation = identifying risks, setting

priorities commissioning and reviewing

risk assessment .

Risk Assessment = combination of Risk

identification, risk analysis and risk

evaluation

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Steps of Risk Management Process

The risk management process consists of a

series of steps that, when undertaken in

sequence, enable continual improvement in

decision-making.

1. Establish the context

2. Identify hazards

3. Analyse risks that may result because of the

hazard

4. Evaluate the risks

5. Treat the risks

6. Review and Monitor the risk

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Step 1 Establish the context

The first step in managing risk is to gather

background information which relates to the

organization as a whole as well as the particular risk

management study. This establishes the context

within which OHS risks are managed.

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Step 2 Hazard Identification

Risk cannot be managed unless it is first

identified.

The aim of risk identification is to identify

possible risks that may affect, either negatively

or positively, the objectives of the organization

and the activity under analysis. .

Identifying retrospective risks

Retrospective risks are those that have

previously occurred.

There are many sources of information about

retrospective risk. These include:

• hazard or incident logs or registers

• audit reports

• customer complaints

• accreditation documents and reports

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Types of workplace hazards 12345 -ve
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• past staff or client surveys

• newspapers or professional media, such as

journals or websites.

Identifying prospective risks

Prospective risks are often harder to identify. These

are things that have not yet happened, but might

happen some time in the future.

Identification should include all risks, whether or not

they are currently being managed.

Methods for identifying prospective risks:

• brainstorming with staff

• researching the economic, political,

legislative and operating environment

• conducting interviews with relevant people

and/or organisations

• undertaking surveys of staff or clients .

• flow charting a process

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When

When a job is first undertaken

When a new piece of equipment is installed

When new or relevant information regarding health

and safety becomes available from an authoritative

source

When substantial changes are made to a system of

work

When there has been an injury to a person

undertaking a job or to a person near where a job is

being performed

Following an accident that did not result in an injury

or damage

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When there is evidence to suggest that a current risk

assessment is no longer valid

When hazardous substances and/or dangerous goods

are introduced into the workplace

As part of the design and construction of a new

facility

Prior to conducting an experiment

As part of developing and designing a new subject,

unit or course outline

Prior to conducting a field trip

Step 3. Analyse the risks

Risk analysis involves combining the possible

consequences, or impact, of an event, with the

likelihood of that event occurring. The result is a

‘level of risk’. That is:

Risk = consequence x likelihood

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Elements of risk analysis

The elements of risk analysis are as follows:

1. Identify existing strategies and controls that act to

minimise negative risk and enhance pportunities.

2. Determine the consequences of a negative impact

or an opportunity

3. Determine the likelihood of a negative

consequence or an opportunity.

4. Estimate the level of risk by combining

consequence and likelihood.

5. Consider and identify any uncertainties in the

estimates.

Types of analysis

Three categories or types of analysis can be used to

determine level of risk:

• Qualitative

• Semi-quantitative

• Quantitative.

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A- Qualitative risk analysis

Qualitative risk analysis is simple and easy to

understand. Disadvantages include the fact that it is

subjective and is based on insight, which can lead

to the forming of bias and can degrade the validity

of the results.

Methods for qualitative risk analysis include:

• brainstorming

• evaluation using multi-disciplinary groups

• specialist and expert judgement

• structured interviews and/or questionnaires

• word picture descriptors and risk categories.

Items in risk analysis

Risk = likelihood x consequence

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Likelihood

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B- Consequences

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Health + Cost + Environment
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Step 4. Evaluate the risks

Risk evaluation involves comparing the level of risk

found during the analysis process with previously

established risk criteria, and deciding whether these

risks require treatment.

The result of a risk evaluation is a prioritised list of

risks that require further action.

This step is about deciding whether risks are

acceptable or need treatment.

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Methods of Risk Ranking

1- A qualitative ( subjective ) method : Risk

ranking Matrix.

2- A semi quantitative method by using : Fine

Risk Score Calculator

3- A semi quantitative method by using : Risk

Nomogram

Risk Ranking Matrix

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3 x 3 4 x 4 5 x 5 scale 0-100 scale 0 - 1000 ? precise , accurate , suitable for ranking 150 hazard....
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Just for prioritization Not imply any sense of actual values
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Ordinal Scale: Low Moderate High Extreme Continuos Discrete scale 123456789 ...
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Risk acceptance

Low or tolerable risks may be accepted.

‘Acceptable’ means the business chooses to

‘accept’ that the risk exists, either because the risk

is at a low level and the cost of treating the risk will

outweigh the benefit, or there is no reasonable

treatment that can be implemented. This is also

known as ALARP (as low as reasonably practicable).

A risk may be accepted for the following reasons:

• The cost of treatment far exceeds the benefit, so

that acceptance is the only option (applies

particularly to lower ranked risks)

• The level of the risk is so low that specific

treatment is not appropriate with available

resources

• The opportunities presented outweigh the threats

to such a degree that the risk is justified

• The risk is such that there is no treatment

available, for example the risk that the business may

suffer storm damage.

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Other Methods of Risk Ranking

2- A semi quantitative method by using :

Fine Risk Score Calculator

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اسم عالم وليس صفة......؟؟؟؟؟
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from 0 to 100
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3- A semi quantitative: Risk Nomogram

Step 5. Treat and control the risks

Risk treatment involves identifying options for

treating or controlling risk, in order to either reduce

or eliminate negative consequences, or to reduce

the likelihood of an adverse occurrence. Risk

treatment should also aim to enhance positive

outcomes.

It is often either not possible or cost-effective to

implement all treatment strategies.

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توجد برامج جاهزه لحساب و لتقدير الاختطار مصممة للكمبيوتر منها on-line and off-line مثل .........
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Hierarchy of control

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Options for risk treatment

Avoid the risk

One method of dealing with risk is to avoid the risk

by not proceeding with the activity likely to generate

the risk. Risk avoidance should only occur when

control measures do not exist or do not reduce the

risk to an acceptable level.

Change the likelihood of the occurrence

This option enhances the likelihood of beneficial

outcomes and reduces the possibility of loss.

Change the consequences

This will increase the size of gains and reduce the

size of losses. This may include business continuity

plans, and emergency and contingency plans.

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Share the risk

Part or most of a risk may be transferred to another

party so that they share responsibility.

Mechanisms for risk transfer include contracts,

insurance, partnerships and business alliances.

Retain the risk

After risks have been reduced or transferred,

residual risk may be retained if it is at an acceptable

level.

Step 6- Monitor and review

Monitor and review is an essential and integral step

in the risk management process.

Risks need to be monitored periodically to ensure

changing circumstances do not alter the risk

priorities. Very few risks will remain static, therefore

the risk management process needs to be regularly

repeated, so that new risks are captured in the

process and effectively managed.

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