Kamera急診資料挑戰賽

演講者：李少芃、楊承翰

Outline

• Motivation

• Exploratory Data Analysis

• Model Building

• Conclusion

Motivation

Exploratory Data Analysis

Emergency Number

Time

Total

0

50

100

150

200

250

Broken-Line graph

Correlation heat map

Total PDR PBR C01 A09 B03

Total 1 0.869 0.402 0.614 0.992 -0.213

PDR 0.869 1 0.481 0.551 0.867 -0.258

PBR 0.402 0.481 1 0.141 0.412 -0.356

C01 0.614 0.551 0.141 1 0.612 -0.089

A09 0.992 0.614 0.412 -0.356 1 -0.214

B03 -0.213 -0.258 -0.356 -0.089 -0.214 1

The level of hospital

Level 2

122

635

11 12

13 14

1617

40

Level 1

Difference between Level 1 and Level 2

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Broken-Line graph

Hospital 1

Hospital 14

Total

Time

Hospitals in Level 1

0

50

100

150

200

Time

Total

Hospital 35

Hospital 1

Hospital 6

Strange phenomena

of time interval thatthe emergency number in hospital six is equal to zero

Discussion

Level 2

1

22

6 35 11 12

13 14

1617

40

Level 1

Model Building

Terminology

• PDR：病患與醫師之比率

• A09：檢傷人數(3級)

• Tz：時間區段

• Hospital：醫院編號

• Weekday：平日、假日

• Total：急診人數

Schematic diagram with Level 1

Linear

Schematic diagram with Level 2

general

Result of Hospital 1

0

20

40

60

80

100

120Broken-Line graph

Fitted

Total

Total

Time

Result Hospital 11

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45Broken-Line graph

Fitted

Total

Total

Time

Conclusion

Level 1

𝐓𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1 𝐓𝐳 + 𝛽3 𝐏𝐝𝐫 + 𝛽4 𝐰𝐝𝐚𝐲 + 𝜺

𝐏𝐝𝐫 = 𝛼0 + 𝛼1 𝐓𝐳 + 𝛼2 𝐰𝐝𝐚𝐲 + 𝜺

Hospital 35

𝐏𝐝𝐫 = 𝛼0 + 𝛼1 𝐓𝐳 + 𝛼2 𝐇𝐨𝐬 + 𝛼3 𝐰𝐝𝐚𝐲 + 𝛼4 𝐇𝐨𝐬 ∙ 𝐓𝐳 + 𝜺

𝐓𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1 𝐓𝐳 + 𝛽2 𝐇𝐨𝐬 + 𝛽3 𝐏𝐝𝐫 + 𝛽4 𝐰𝐝𝐚𝐲 + 𝛽5 𝐇𝐨𝐬 ∙ 𝐓𝐳 + 𝜺

Hospital 1 and Hospital 22

Hospital 6

WHAT??

Level 2

𝐏𝐛𝐫 = 𝛼0 + 𝛼1 𝐓𝐳 + 𝛼2 𝐇𝐨𝐬 + 𝛼3 𝐰𝐝𝐚𝐲 + 𝛼4 𝐇𝐨𝐬 ∙ 𝐓𝐳 + 𝜺

𝐓𝐨𝐭𝐚𝐥 = 𝛽0 + 𝛽1 𝐓𝐳 + 𝛽2 𝐇𝐨𝐬 + 𝛽3 𝐏𝐛𝐫 +

𝛽4 𝐰𝐝𝐚𝐲 + 𝛽5 𝐀𝟎𝟗 + 𝛽6 𝐇𝐨𝐬 ∙ 𝐓𝐳 + 𝜺

A09= 𝛾0 + 𝛾1 𝐓𝐳 + 𝛾2 𝐇𝐨𝐬 + 𝛾3 𝐰𝐝𝐚𝐲 + 𝛾4 𝐇𝐨𝐬 ∙ 𝐓𝐳 + 𝜺