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Управление сложностью в проектах Солнцев Алексей, PM Day 2016

Управление сложностью в проектах

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, PM Day 2016

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10 MBA, - - IT "Scrum XP " "Scrum Kanban:

Projectus

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The Standish Group Report: CHAOS https://www.projectsmart.co.uk/white-papers/chaos-report.pdf

Change is coming. The disciplines of change management and project management will continue to merge. Inherently projects are about change. Projects have been entirely about delivering project outcomes on time and on budget. This perspective has, for the most part, entirely ignored the underlying purpose behind any project to move the business forward.

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PMI Pulse Reporthttps://www.pmi.org/~/media/PDF/learning/pulse-of-the-profession-2015.ashx

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Tim Brady, Brighton Business School

Tim Brady from Brighton Business School

Its not my faultNo blame attachedIntegrated team

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Change of the behaviorCollaborative rulesIntegrative project teamPartnering

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Solution RequirementsSolution Intents21

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Unknown unknowns Are often referred to as black swans (Taleb 2006). These are surprising events or out-liers. In practice there are few events that are truly unknown unknowns. Futures analysis, particularly horizon scanning for weak signals, can help to minimise such surprises.Unknown knowns These are expected events such as earthquakes, but which are unpredictable in timing or intensity but can have a high impact at a specific place. Such events usually have probabilistic forecasts; and advances in science and modelling can help to move them towards known knowns.Known unknowns These are events that can be predicted to occur, such as European elections, where the outcome is usually increasing uncertain the further they are into the future. An understanding of what is driving change and weak signals of changing circumstances can help to reduce the uncertainty. Scenarios can also be used to explore different potential outcomes.Known knowns These are predictable events, such as floods, where the system that causes them is understood. The likelihoods and impacts of these can be modelled for many sets of circumstances.22

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?https://www.facebook.com/aleksey.solntsevhttp://linkedin.com/in/solntsev