Financial Propaganda Model in SoLoMo Era: Demand Creation and Journalism

SoLoMo時代的金融宣傳模式: 製造需求與新聞學

Thomas Hu 胡一天 November 2012

Table of Contents 目錄

§  Demand Creation in SoLoMo Era

§  Anatomy of Financial Propaganda Model

§  Big Data and Propaganda Model

§  Trust and Uncertainty

§  Implications for Journalism

Demand Creation in SoLoMo Era

SoLoMo時代如何製造需求

“Supply creates its own demand.”

~ John Maynard Keynes

Social Media: New Focal Point of Internet 社群媒體是互聯網的新焦點

§  SoLoMo風潮席捲全球

§  2010年全球智能手機的銷量超越pc

§  社群媒體佔據互聯網用戶16%的時間

§  廣告與產品須打進Web 2.0消費者的心

§  社群的信任與方便的通訊科技是關鍵

§  無所不在的最終通路: Your Mind!

20 September 2012

Internet

Initiation

Page 42 Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.

Driver #1 Mobile Taking Over

Traffic To Exceed PC By 2016 – So Who Wins?

Mobile device adoption surpassed PC in 2010 marking the beginning stage of the next big

trend in digital. At some point in the near future, we estimate potentially by 2016, mobile

consumption (traffic) should surpass PC consumption, which will have profound

implications for companies in our coverage universe. We have seen decades of growth

and new business models on the back of technology and media shifts like mobile, dating

back to radio in 1920’s, TV in 1930’s, Cable in 1980’s and the Internet in 1990’s, each

lasting as many as 20 years and each spawning a number of new businesses. We think

mobility is likely to have the same transformational shift, based on the following trends: 1)

low cost of ownership broadens the user base vs. prior media, 2) always on nature of

mobile allows for new ways of reaching consumers at high speeds, 3) location and

personalization based marketing creates potentially new ROI opportunities for advertisers.

Many Companies In Our Coverage Universe To Be Impacted: We have identified a

number of business models that have emerged or are likely to further flourish in the

next era of mobility across several areas in our coverage universe, including: 1)

advertising and content, across search, display, leads and calls, 2) e-commerce and

payments, or what is now being called m-commerce, 3) online travel and local services.

Some Friction To Watch: Mobility has created a number of competing strategies,

technologies, and companies, including: 1) open vs. closed operating systems, 2) the

native app vs. HTML5 race, and 3) legal and financial considerations from intellectual

property.

Investment Vehicles To Play Mobility Trend: We have identified a number of public

vehicles (Google, eBay, Amazon, and pure plays like Velti, etc) for investors to capitalize

on mobility, in addition to a number of private companies in the space.

Global Mobile Devices Already Outnumber PCs

We estimate global smartphone shipments surpassed PC shipments in 2010, marking

the early tipping point in what has become a massive consumer lead push into the

mobile space, impacting all companies in our coverage universe.

Figure 31: PC and Smartphone Unit Shipments (mn) Figure 32: PC and Smartphone Shipment Mix

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200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014EU

nit

Ship

men

ts (m

n)

PC Unit Shipments (DT + LT) Smartphone Unit Shipments

WW smartphone shipments surpassedPC shipments in 2010

63% 58%48% 42%

34% 29% 26%

37% 42%52% 58%

66% 71% 74%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012E 2013E 2014E

PC Unit Shipments (DT + LT) Smartphone Unit Shipments

Source: IDC and Deutsche Bank IT Hardware Team Source: IDC and Deutsche Bank IT Hardware Team

SoLoMo e-Commerce: Not New in Financial Markets 金融市場對SoLoMo電子商務並不陌生

§  NASADAQ早開B2B電子商務的先河 §  過去三十年資訊科技的演進降低交易費用但未改變交易本質

§  金融交易的本質是搜尋(search)與驗證(verification)買賣雙方的動態過程

§  華爾街對資訊科技的投資不遺餘力

§  全球金融業的IT投資額於2012-15年上看三千八百億美元

§  歐美市場各佔三分之一，亞洲增長持續加速

§  全球投資銀行業的平均年營運固定成本上看四十億美元，IT開銷為大宗項目

§  Why Spend So Much Money? §  Lehman Shock & Global Credit Crisis =>金融服務供應過剩而需求不振

§  華爾街證券化工廠需要不斷製造需求來維持規模經濟 => More Deals, Less Capital

§  病毒行銷、行為預測、網絡成癮 => Similarity between Wall Street & e-commerce platform

Anatomy of Financial Propaganda Model

剖析金融宣傳模式

“The mass media are interested in attracting audiences with buying power, not audiences per se.”

~ Noam Chomsky

Socialize, Localize, Mobilize 拉攏，融入，動員

§  1988年杭士基(Noam Chomsky)提出宣傳模式(propaganda model)以解釋: §  新聞媒體在灌輸與鞏固政經意識型態的關鍵角色

§  媒體的所有權與資金來源導致統治精英製造公眾同意(manufactured consent)

§  華爾街的金融宣傳模式:

§  研究與投行業務間的Chinese Wall => biased and vulnerable

§  業務第一、真相不重要 => “Customers have very short memory”

§  獨立分析團隊創造價值 (Meredith Whitney, Muddy Water…) => Sustainable?

§  Why Financial SoLoMo? §  Socialize to gain trust => user stickiness

§  Localize to frame focus and eliminate choices => targeted marketing

§  Mobilize herd mentality and create concerted collective response => fast sell-through

How Buy-side and Sell-side Interact in Financial Markets? 買賣雙方如何在金融市場互動?

§  實例: Tommy於一間管理一百億美元的紐約對沖基金擔任資深分析師 §  一日之計在於晨 => 透過智能手機與平板大量閱讀

§  高度整合的互動科技 => 即時網聊、即時新聞、即時反應

§  量身訂製的資訊傳播 => thematic strategy, road show, conference call, live broadcast etc.

§  Social network => 斛杯交錯間，買賣決定時

§  電子交易平台打造金融博奕新戰場

§  金融宣傳模式的特質 §  Contextual => 動聽的故事製造協同行為

§  Pervasive => 針對使用者注意力的飽和攻擊

§  Reflexive => 建構在市場偏見與預期正回饋循環上的反射理論(George Soros)

§  Individual => 巨量市場資訊與分析可以精準標定用戶偏好與預期行為

§  Social => 金融交易是在賭心思、人類機械交相賊

§  WHY DOES IT STILL WORK IF EVERYONE KNOWS HOW IT WORKS?

Big Data and Propaganda Model

巨量資訊與宣傳模式

“It is not who I am underneath, but what I do that defines me.”

~ Batman/Bruce Wayne

Big Data Analytics Enhance Propaganda 巨量資訊強化宣傳

§  資料庫科技的創新從不停息 §  規模、速度、容錯

§  75%的數位資訊來自個人 => 愈來愈多的資訊來自人類自發的創作分享與喃喃自語

§  Facebook, Twitter, YouTube上的用戶資訊分散、龐雜且成指數式增長

§  Big Data => 針對巨量資訊的分析是Web 2.0的新顯學

§  Collective Intelligence §  集體智慧與群眾心理

§  金融市場的群性 => Futures market as price discovery mechanism

§  社群網絡上的朋友數量與大腦灰皮質的容量正相關 => better stock picker?

§  Algorithmic trading and e-commerce market microstructure

§  巨量資訊與宣傳模式 §  How Target figured out a teenage girl was pregnant before her father did?

§  Consumer protection and privacy: an Orwellian luxury?

§  TRUST NO ONE?

Trust and Uncertainty

信任與不確定

“There are known knowns; There are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; But there are also unknown unknowns. The ones we don’t know we don’t know.”

~ Donald Rumsfield

Social Media Create New Layer of Trust Infrastructure 社群媒體形塑新的信用基礎

§  資本主義市場經濟是用合約結成的網絡 §  看不見的手 => 信用

§  信用風險是市場波動的本源 => 資訊不對稱、不確定、不可測

§  社會信用基礎建設(Social Trust Infrastructure) => 法院(laws))、銀行(money)、媒體(news)

§  金融危機與信任危機 => fear, greed, animal spirit and market mania

§  社群網絡形塑新的信用基礎建設 §  Facebook用戶破十億人 => The Birth of A Nation?

§  消費者信用服務 => 信用評等與行為預測

§  Facebook Credits => 新型態的貨幣？

§  金融化的社群網絡平台與宣傳模式 §  ARE WE READY YET?

§  WHAT IS TRUE?

§  WHOM TO TRUST?

Implications for Journalism

對新聞學的指涉

“History isn’t written by logic.”

~ Oriana Fallaci

Crownless King Without Clothes 沒有新衣的無冕王

§  曾幾何時，新聞媒體從業人員是受人尊敬的專業 §  沒有網絡的時代，記者決定閱聽大眾如何思考

§  社群網絡的時代，只要有心，人人都能當記者

§  Information is almost free but good judgment is priceless => So What?

§  新聞記者的存在意義（rasion d’etre）為何？ §  Journalist or Propagandist?

§  Still relevant when Google is omnipresent and omniscient?

§  Public suspicion when independent journalism is financially struggling?

§  Information Tribalism and Institutional mistrust?

§  Active promoter or astute spectator?

§  人類對抗暴政就是記憶與遺忘的鬥爭 => SoLoMo Journalist and New Responsibility §  Sober Thinker

§  Loud Speaker

§  Motivated Fighter

Questions & Answers

問與答