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WPA’s Weekly Political Brief April 27, 2012
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WPA’s Weekly Political Brief
As part of our continuing effort to keep our clients and friends up-to-date on the political
environment as we head toward Election Day, 2012, we’ll be distributing these weekly data updates
every Friday.
In each update you can expect to find the following key indicators tracked:
• Direction of the Country
• Obama Job Approval
• National Unemployment
• Obama Approval on the Economy
• Generic Congressional Ballot
• National & per capita debt
In addition, each week we’ll feature a few charts showing what we think is the most interesting and
timely new data from that week. This week we have:
• Nate Silver’s analysis of the home state support brought by a Vice Presidential candidate,
applied to some of the potential nominees
• With the Pennsylvania primary done, Blue Dog Democrats are hurting even more than
projections originally indicated.
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Weekly Summary
Republicans and Democrats are tied on the generic congressional ballot. A majority of Americans
do not approve of Obama’s handling of the economy, perhaps because most Americans know
someone who has been laid off in the last six months.
Nate Silver had an interesting analysis of the effect of vice presidential candidates on their ticket’s
performance and concluded that the vice presidential home state bump is actually only 2%. That
2% can make all the difference though, in a year with many hard fought swing states.
• Rob Portman, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, and Bob McDonnell are all from battleground states
that could be firmed up heading into the election.
With Pennsylvania’s primary on Tuesday the Blue Dog Coalition took two serious losses in Jason
Altmire and Tim Holden. From 54 members before the 2010 elections to 25 today, the Blue Dogs
have had seven members of the current coalition retire or be defeated in a primary.
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Two out of three Americans are unhappy with the direction of the country.
Source: Real Clear Politics
36%
29% 29%
20% 18%
30% 34% 32%
57%
63% 63%
75%
64% 60% 61%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan-10 Apr-10 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12
Direction of the County
Approve Disapprove
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Obama continues to maintain his split image.
Source: Real Clear Politics
One Week Ago One Month Ago
Approve 48% 47%
Disapprove 47% 47%
46%
52%
44% 43% 44% 44% 46% 46%
49%
47%
48% 49%
42%
51% 52% 51% 50% 48% 48%
47%
48%
47%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12
Obama Job Approval
Approve Disapprove
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A large majority of Americans say they know someone personally who has lost a job or been laid off in the last six months, more than ever before in Gallup’s history of asking the question.
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & Gallup
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
National Unemployment Rate
March 8.2%
50% 60% 58%
43% 54%
63% 60% 55% 53% 50% 54% 68%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%% who know someone laid off or fired
% who know a laid off worker
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$138,286
$1,325,374,235,652
$15,686,688,466,651
The national debt has risen over $12,102,877,495 since last week.
Source: USDebtclock.org
U.S. National Debt
Debt Per Taxpayer
Federal Budget Deficit
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A majority of Americans disapprove of Obama’s handling of the economy.
Source: Pollster.com
0.0%
10.0%
20.0%
30.0%
40.0%
50.0%
60.0%
70.0%
80.0%
90.0%
100.0%
4-F
eb
-09
4-M
ar-
09
4-A
pr-
09
4-M
ay-
09
4-J
un
-09
4-J
ul-0
9
4-A
ug-0
9
4-S
ep
-09
4-O
ct-
09
4-N
ov-0
9
4-D
ec-0
9
4-J
an
-10
4-F
eb
-10
4-M
ar-
10
4-A
pr-
10
4-M
ay-
10
4-J
un
-10
4-J
ul-1
0
4-A
ug-1
0
4-S
ep
-10
4-O
ct-
10
4-N
ov-1
0
4-D
ec-1
0
4-J
an
-11
4-F
eb
-11
4-M
ar-
11
4-A
pr-
11
4-M
ay-
11
4-J
un
-11
4-J
ul-1
1
4-A
ug-1
1
4-S
ep
-11
4-O
ct-
11
4-N
ov-1
1
4-D
ec-1
1
4-J
an
-12
4-F
eb
-12
4-M
ar-
12
4-A
pr-
12
Obama Economic Approval
Approve Disapprove
53%
40%
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41% 42% 43% 42%
45%
44% 43% 41%
46% 43% 44% 42%
43%
44% 45% 41%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Jan-12 Feb-12 Mar-12 Apr-12
Generic Congressional Ballot
Democrat Republican
The generic ballot is currently tied.
Source: Real Clear Politics Seat change includes Congressional and Senate gains
49% 46% 43% 52% 47% 54% 53%
45%
0%
50%
100%
2004 2006 2008 2010
Previous Election Day Generic Ballots
R+7 seats R+69 seats D+29 seats D+37 seats
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If Nate Silver’s analysis this week on the home state bump provided by a VP candidate is applied to the field of possible Republicans, several swing states jump out. A conservative who could excite the base AND bring a swing state over is probably on a very short list.
VP Candidate State Cook PVI Nate Silver’s 2%
Home State Bump Electoral Votes
Portman Ohio R+1 R+3 20
Rubio Florida R+2 R+4 27
Christie New Jersey D+4 D+2 15
Ryan Wisconsin D+2 D+0 10
Bush Florida R+2 R+4 27
McDonnell Virginia R+2 R+4 13
Rice California D+7 D+5 55
Daniels Indiana R+8 R+10 11
Jindall Louisiana R+10 R+12 9
Santorum Pennsylvania D+2 D+0 21
Pawlenty Minnesota D+2 D+0 10
Martinez New Mexico D+2 D+0 5
Haley South Carolina R+8 R+10 8
Ayotte New Hampshire D+2 D+0 4
DeMint South Carolina R+8 R+10 8
Thune South Dakota R+9 R+11 3
Fallin Oklahoma R+17 R+19 7
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Blue Dog Democrats lost 28 members in 2010. Of the remaining 25, seven are retiring or have been defeated in their 2012 primary. Tim Holden and Jason Altmire are the latest losses for the Coalition.
Source: CNN/ORC 4/13-15
2010
2009
2012
Representative Status
Altmire (PA-4) Out
Boren (OK-2) Out
Cardoza (CA-18) Out
Donnelly (IN-2) Out
Tim Holden (PA-17) Out
Mike Ross (AR-4) Out
Heath Shuler (NC-11) Out
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For additional information about this or any other of our services, please feel free to contact:
Bryon Allen Partner and COO
202.470.6300
E-mail:
Chris Perkins Partner
202.494.3084
E-mail:
Chris Wilson Partner and CEO
405.286.6500
E-mail:
Ryan Steusloff Vice President
202.470.6300
