25
Copyright @ 2013. All rights reserved Risk and Planning, how to use the QSRA process to intelligently apply risk to planning without affec;ng Earned Value Management. Project Controls Expo – 13 th Nov 2013 Twickenham Stadium, London

Project Controls Expo, 13th Nov 2013 - "Risk and Planning, how to use the QSRA process to intelligently apply risk to planning without affecting Earned Value Management"

Embed Size (px)

Citation preview

Page 1: Project Controls Expo, 13th Nov 2013 - "Risk and Planning, how to use the QSRA process to intelligently apply risk to planning without affecting Earned Value Management"

                                                                                                                                                                                 Copyright  @  2013.  All  rights  reserved  

Risk  and  Planning,  how  to  use  the  QSRA  process  to  intelligently  apply  risk  to  planning  

without  affec;ng  Earned  Value  Management.  

Project  Controls  Expo  –  13th  Nov  2013  Twickenham  Stadium,  London    

 

Page 2: Project Controls Expo, 13th Nov 2013 - "Risk and Planning, how to use the QSRA process to intelligently apply risk to planning without affecting Earned Value Management"

                                                                                                                                                                                 Copyright  @  2013.  All  rights  reserved  

Up  next  o  What  is  Transport  for  London?  and  how  do  we  manage  our  

capital  programmes?  o  TfL’s  vision  for  Integrated  Project  Controls  o  IntegraHng  risk  and  planning  o  What  are  our  challenges?  

Page 3: Project Controls Expo, 13th Nov 2013 - "Risk and Planning, how to use the QSRA process to intelligently apply risk to planning without affecting Earned Value Management"

                                                                                                                                                                                 Copyright  @  2013.  All  rights  reserved  

What  is  TfL?  

Page 4: Project Controls Expo, 13th Nov 2013 - "Risk and Planning, how to use the QSRA process to intelligently apply risk to planning without affecting Earned Value Management"

                                                                                                                                                                                 Copyright  @  2013.  All  rights  reserved  

The  scale  of  our  challenge  o  London’s  growing  all  the  Hme,  at  a  

rate  equivalent  to  a  tube  train  full  of  people  added  every  week  

o  Economy  demands  more  for  less  o  Embracing  new  technology  o  Ageing  infrastructure  

4

Population Employment

London is an old and very brown field site in which to undertake project work

Page 5: Project Controls Expo, 13th Nov 2013 - "Risk and Planning, how to use the QSRA process to intelligently apply risk to planning without affecting Earned Value Management"

                                                                                                                                                                                 Copyright  @  2013.  All  rights  reserved  

TfL’s    Capital  Delivery  Programme  

o  Circa  £2.6  billion  budget  per  year  o  Heavy  Engineering  &  ConstrucHon  o  Tunnels  o  Rail  &  Signalling  o  Vehicles  o  Power  &  Comms  o  Cooling  o  Waterways  o  Safety  CriHcal  SoVware  

5

Page 6: Project Controls Expo, 13th Nov 2013 - "Risk and Planning, how to use the QSRA process to intelligently apply risk to planning without affecting Earned Value Management"

                                                                                                                                                                                 Copyright  @  2013.  All  rights  reserved  

MeeHng  demand  

6

2003 2013 2030

Page 7: Project Controls Expo, 13th Nov 2013 - "Risk and Planning, how to use the QSRA process to intelligently apply risk to planning without affecting Earned Value Management"

                                                                                                                                                                                 Copyright  @  2013.  All  rights  reserved  

Some  of  what  we  have  already  delivered  

7

Victoria line upgrade

Upgrade  complete  with  full  fleet  replaced

Electric Cars

1300  Charging  stations  delivered

ELL extension

Record  demand  on  Overground  services

SSR upgrade

Full  S8  fleet  now  in  service

New Bus for London

8  new  buses  in  service,  1st

Route  converted  for  fleet

Page 8: Project Controls Expo, 13th Nov 2013 - "Risk and Planning, how to use the QSRA process to intelligently apply risk to planning without affecting Earned Value Management"

                                                                                                                                                                                 Copyright  @  2013.  All  rights  reserved  

Some  of  what’s  leV  to  do..  

8

2014 – Northern line Upgrade Completion

2013 – Contactless Bank Card Technology

2014 – Wimbledon Pinchpoint (4 new trams)

Cycle Super Highways –6 further routes to deliver

2015/16 – OvergroundAdditional Cars

2016 – TCR New Facilities Open

2017–Congestion Relief at Bond Street Complete

2018–Victoria Station Upgrade Complete

New bus for London –600 buses to deliver

2018–SSR Signalling Upgrade Complete

2016-2020 –Jubilee and Vic line up to 36 TPH

2020 – Battersea Extension Complete

2021 – Bank Congestion Relief Complete

2022 – Northern Line Upgrade 2 Complete

2024 – Bakerloo + W&C Line Upgrades Complete

Page 9: Project Controls Expo, 13th Nov 2013 - "Risk and Planning, how to use the QSRA process to intelligently apply risk to planning without affecting Earned Value Management"

                                                                                                                                                                                 Copyright  @  2013.  All  rights  reserved  

Our  challenge        

Delivering  within    ‘The  Zone’  

9

Safety - towards zero

Harm, Right 1st

time Engineering

Delivering best unit

costs & forecast accuracy

Fewer closures and less overall disruption

Approaching 100%

delivery of milestones

“Asia - Pacific” levels of reliability

and performance

of new systems

World Class

Capital Delivery

Page 10: Project Controls Expo, 13th Nov 2013 - "Risk and Planning, how to use the QSRA process to intelligently apply risk to planning without affecting Earned Value Management"

                                                                                                                                                                                 Copyright  @  2013.  All  rights  reserved  

Integrated  Project  Controls  

Our  vision  for  achieving  be[er  project  delivery  

Page 11: Project Controls Expo, 13th Nov 2013 - "Risk and Planning, how to use the QSRA process to intelligently apply risk to planning without affecting Earned Value Management"

                                                                                                                                                                                 Copyright  @  2013.  All  rights  reserved  

Integrated  Project  Controls  o  Consolidated,  common  WBS  &  CBS  o  ImplemenHng  Repeatable  Work  Items  to  assist  esHmaHng  

and  enable  benchmarking  o  Full  alignment  of  controls  funcHons  at  a  business  process  

level  o  Analysing  cost  and  Hme  alignment  in  order  to  inform  

robust  financial  forecasHng  at  Enterprise  level  o  System  agnosHc,  TfL  wide  methodology    

Active Accountable Fair  &  Consistent

Direct Collaborative

Page 12: Project Controls Expo, 13th Nov 2013 - "Risk and Planning, how to use the QSRA process to intelligently apply risk to planning without affecting Earned Value Management"

                                                                                                                                                                                 Copyright  @  2013.  All  rights  reserved  

Integrated  Project  Controls  Project Controls – The Situation before IPC

Integrated Project Controls (IPC)

ScopeE

xcel

AR

M /

Exc

el

Prim

aver

a P

6 / M

SP

/ E

xcel

SA

P /

Ora

cle

Project Vision

Cost

Risk

PlanFinancial

Benefits

Exc

el /

PR

ISM

? / C

onje

ct?

Cost Management

RIB

Estimating

Common Structure WBS / CBS

Project Controls – After IPC Workshop

Integrated Project Controls (IPC)

Scope

Exc

el

AR

M /

Exc

el

Prim

aver

a P

6 / M

SP

/ E

xcel

SA

P /

Ora

cle

Project Vision

Cost

Risk

PlanFinancial

BenefitsE

xcel

/ P

RIS

M?

/ Con

ject

?

Cost Management

RIB

Estimating

Common Structure WBS / CBS

Page 13: Project Controls Expo, 13th Nov 2013 - "Risk and Planning, how to use the QSRA process to intelligently apply risk to planning without affecting Earned Value Management"

                                                                                                                                                                                 Copyright  @  2013.  All  rights  reserved  

Integrated  Project  Controls  Project Controls – The IPC Solution

Integrated Project Controls (IPC)

ScopeE

xcel

AR

M

Prim

aver

a P

6 / M

SP

SA

P /

Ora

cle

Project Vision

Cost

Risk

PlanFinancial

Benefits

Exc

el /

PR

ISM

? / C

onje

ct?

Cost Management

RIB

Estimating

Common Structure WBS / CBS

Project Controls – The IPC the next stage

Integrated Project Controls (IPC)

Scope

AR

M

Prim

aver

a P

6 / M

SP

SA

P /

Ora

cle

Project Vision

Risk

PlanFinancial

Benefits

PR

ISM

? / C

onje

ct?

Cost Management

Estimating

Common Structure WBS / CBS

Page 14: Project Controls Expo, 13th Nov 2013 - "Risk and Planning, how to use the QSRA process to intelligently apply risk to planning without affecting Earned Value Management"

                                                                                                                                                                                 Copyright  @  2013.  All  rights  reserved  

IntegraHng  Risk  &  Planning  

How  to  improve  risk  management  through  integraHon  with  the  schedule  

Page 15: Project Controls Expo, 13th Nov 2013 - "Risk and Planning, how to use the QSRA process to intelligently apply risk to planning without affecting Earned Value Management"

                                                                                                                                                                                 Copyright  @  2013.  All  rights  reserved  

Risk  idenHficaHon  process  o  Ge`ng  the  right  people  in  the  room  o  Learning  from  the  past  o  Adding  key  planning  assumpHons  to  the  risk  register  o  Linking  risks  to  the  relevant  schedule  acHviHy  o  Understanding  when  your  risks  may  impact  o  Ensuring  that  risk  miHgaHon  tasks  exist  in  the  schedule  

Page 16: Project Controls Expo, 13th Nov 2013 - "Risk and Planning, how to use the QSRA process to intelligently apply risk to planning without affecting Earned Value Management"

                                                                                                                                                                                 Copyright  @  2013.  All  rights  reserved  

QSRA  o  Robust  schedule  technical  quality  o  3  point  esHmates  to  drive  determinisHc  output  o  Linking  with  risk  register  delivers  probabilisHc  data  to  

complete  the  holisHc  risk  process  o  Derive  P50  and  P80  deltas  for  use  as  Hme  risk  buffers  

against  key  project  deliverables  

Page 17: Project Controls Expo, 13th Nov 2013 - "Risk and Planning, how to use the QSRA process to intelligently apply risk to planning without affecting Earned Value Management"

                                                                                                                                                                                 Copyright  @  2013.  All  rights  reserved  

IntegraHng  Hme  phased  risk  data  &  P6  (Risk  £)  

o  Risk  acHviHes  have  common  IDs  aligned  in  P6  &  ARM  o  Single  day  acHviHes  with  budget  allocated  in  the  current  

plan  against  work  packages  o  Risk  acHviHes  not  included  in  baseline  so  they  don’t  

negaHvely  impact  EVM  o  If  and  when  risk  matures  costs  are  ‘Re-­‐profiled’  into  

relevant  work  package  in  order  to  maintain  robust  EVM  by  retaining  project  performance  

Page 18: Project Controls Expo, 13th Nov 2013 - "Risk and Planning, how to use the QSRA process to intelligently apply risk to planning without affecting Earned Value Management"

                                                                                                                                                                                 Copyright  @  2013.  All  rights  reserved  

What  did  the  exisHng  situaHon  look  like?  

Page 19: Project Controls Expo, 13th Nov 2013 - "Risk and Planning, how to use the QSRA process to intelligently apply risk to planning without affecting Earned Value Management"

                                                                                                                                                                                 Copyright  @  2013.  All  rights  reserved  

And  the  problems  this  gives  us  ...  

Page 20: Project Controls Expo, 13th Nov 2013 - "Risk and Planning, how to use the QSRA process to intelligently apply risk to planning without affecting Earned Value Management"

                                                                                                                                                                                 Copyright  @  2013.  All  rights  reserved  

What  does  the  IPC  soluHon  look  like?  

Page 21: Project Controls Expo, 13th Nov 2013 - "Risk and Planning, how to use the QSRA process to intelligently apply risk to planning without affecting Earned Value Management"

                                                                                                                                                                                 Copyright  @  2013.  All  rights  reserved  

And  the  benefit  this  gives  us  ...  

Page 22: Project Controls Expo, 13th Nov 2013 - "Risk and Planning, how to use the QSRA process to intelligently apply risk to planning without affecting Earned Value Management"

                                                                                                                                                                                 Copyright  @  2013.  All  rights  reserved  

IntegraHng  Hme  phased  risk  data  &  P6  (Time  risk)  

o  QSRA  delivers  P50  &  P80  dates  against  key  milestones  (PAMs)  o  Deltas  become  Hme  risk  buffers  that  are  logic  linked  to  the  schedule  

off  the  criHcal  path  o  TfL  standard  conHngency  Hmescales  are  applied  outside  of  P6  o  Time  buffers  used  if  and  when  risks  mature  during  project  execuHon  o  ScienHfic  method  to  apply  Hme  risk  to  schedule    o  Outside  of  NEC  contractor  owned  process  

Page 23: Project Controls Expo, 13th Nov 2013 - "Risk and Planning, how to use the QSRA process to intelligently apply risk to planning without affecting Earned Value Management"

                                                                                                                                                                                 Copyright  @  2013.  All  rights  reserved  

What  does  this  look  like?  

Page 24: Project Controls Expo, 13th Nov 2013 - "Risk and Planning, how to use the QSRA process to intelligently apply risk to planning without affecting Earned Value Management"

                                                                                                                                                                                 Copyright  @  2013.  All  rights  reserved  

What  may  get  in  our  way?  o  Funding  process  is  long  and  arduous  o  Embedment  on  ‘Live’  projects  may  interfere  with  BAU  o  Project  managers  someHmes  view  risk  as  their  conHngency!  o  Ability  to  QSRA  hindered  by  awareness,  knowledge  and  capability  o  PotenHal  reluctance  to  hand  back  risk  monies,  when  the  any  given  risk  

does  not  mature  o  Misuse  of  unused  risk  monies  to  cover  scope  creep  /  gold  plaHng  o  PotenHally  no  incenHvisaHon  to  encourage  change  of  behaviours  

towards  risk  provision  by  the  Project  Managers  

Page 25: Project Controls Expo, 13th Nov 2013 - "Risk and Planning, how to use the QSRA process to intelligently apply risk to planning without affecting Earned Value Management"

                                                                                                                                                                                 Copyright  @  2013.  All  rights  reserved  

Any  QuesHons?