H Y D R A T I N G G L O B A L P O L I C Y ,

G R E E N I N G H A R D I N F R A S T R U C T U R E T H E C A T A L Y S I S O F W A T E R , A D A P T A T I O N & S U S T A I N A B L E

M A N A G E M E N T

J O H N H M A T T H E W S / K A R I N L E X É N / S O F I A W I D F O R S S P A R I S • O U R C O M M O N F U T U R E • 8 J U L Y 2 0 1 5

J O H O M A @ A L L I A N C E 4 W A T E R . O R G

A G W A

Global network of

technical and policy

specialists working on

long-term sustainable

water management —

water professionals to

water professionals

technical & policy specialists

economics & finance, engineering,

eco-hydrological science, governance

Alliance for Global Water Adaptation

E C O S Y S T E M S : C O N S I S T E N T L O S S

R E L A T I V E T O D E V E L O P M E N T

The biophysical landscape is critical for long-term

economic development and poverty alleviation

Traditional approaches to economic development and

infrastructure development often diminish or replace

existing biophysical functions

Assessment of biophysical functions are often too late

in the project cycle, too monetized, too narrow, often

stationary in approach

I S C L I M A T E C H A N G E A N

O P P O R T U N I T Y T O R E B A L A N C E ?

Widespread awareness that long-lived infrastructure is

highly vulnerable to climate impacts

An opening for new approaches to assess risk,

implement sequential decision-making processes to

encompass uncertainty

Must the developing world replicate our mistakes?

• | 1220 ft amsl

• | 1075 ft amsl

• | 1050 ft amsl

• | 1025 ft amsl

• | 1000 ft amsl

• | 895 ft amsl

• | 860 ft amsl

Credit: Bart Wickel

first shortage declaration

second shortage declaration

third shortage declaration

Intake 1 stops

all water delivery ceases

“dead pool”

Intake 2 stops

No electricity

Intake 3 — completed 2015?

2000

2015

2026–

2035

Hoover Dam, Lake Mead, USA, Water Level

1940s

• | 860 ft amsl

Content: deBuys 2012

New Risks = New Opportunities?

S H I F T I N G T O B O T T O M - U P R I S K

A S S E S S M E N T

top-down approaches to

risk assessment

1. Downscale climate

model projections

2. Estimate shifts in

water supply

3. Determine system

responses to

changes in these

variables

Weaver et al., 2012, WIREs

Climate Change

decision-scaling risk

assessment

1. Define your system’s

breaking points

2. Assemble multiple climate

data sources and link to

breaking points

3. Assess

plausibility

and test

vulnerability

Gambiri River, India

stakeholder-

defined

challenges

high-confidence

quantitative results

low-confidence

quantitative results

GCM-defined

challenges

Brown et al., 2012, Water

Resources Research

W H Y

D E C I S I O N

S C A L I N G ?

• front-loads the tradeoff process

• can interpret within a financial

framework but monetization is not

necessary

• flexible framework, amenable to a

wide range of metrics, standards

• rapidly increasing in adoption

(e.g., World Bank)

• robust even with high uncertainty

E C O - E N G I N E E R I N G D E C I S I O N

S C A L I N G

Cre

dit: T

ed G

ranth

am

, LeR

oy P

off, C

aitlin

Spence

Poff et al., Nature Climate Change, 2015

Palmer et al., Science, 2015

W H Y E C O -

E N G I N E E R I N G

D E C I S I O N S C A L I N G ?

• Avoids the trap of

monetizing ecosystem

services

• Places infrastructure and

ecosystems on the same

level

• Functions well with major

ecological rather than

species specific qualities

(e.g., connectivity,

disturbance regime, habitat

complexity)

S C A L I N G U P F R O M

T E C H N I C A L D E C I S I O N S

T O P O L I C Y

E N V I R O N M E N T S

• Climate change is water change – water resources management and climate adaptation policies and implementation must be integrated

• Water is critical for successful climate mitigation – water knowledge must be mainstreamed in mitigation measures

• UNFCCC bodies need to systematically address the role of water in both adaptation and mitigation

Can we hydrate the Paris COP?

T H E P O L I C Y C O N D U I T S F O R

W A T E R & C L I M A T E F O R C O P 2 1

• Intended Nationally Determined

Contributions (INDCs)

• National Adaptation Plans

• Nairobi Work Programme

• REDD+ (Reducing Emissions

from Deforestation and forest

Degradation)

• Mechanism on Loss and Damage

• The Green Climate Fund

Minas Gerais, Brazil

Qinghai, China Koshi basin, Nepal

J O H O M A @ A L L I A N C E 4 W A T E R . O R G

A G W A G U I D E . O R G

A L L I A N C E 4 W A T E R . O R G