Energy and Climate Change: The Case of India

Our Common Future under Climate ChangeInternational Scientific Conference, Paris July 7-10, 2015

Session 4406 (a) - Climate, Sustainable Development and Energy Security

P.R. Shukla

Indian Institue of Management Ahmedabad

Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad

A technological society has two choices.

First it can wait until catastrophic failures expose systemic deficiencies, distortion and self-deceptions…

Secondly, a culture can provide social checks and balances to correct for systemic distortion prior to catastrophic failures.”

- Mahatma Gandhi

‘.. there is no “Plan B” for action as there is no “Planet B’

- Ban Ki-Moon

Scenarios: Perspectives

Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad

Development Path: Why and How Choice matters?

Model Architecture: ‘Horses for Courses’

Scenario Drivers: TrendsDemographics:• Population will increase from 1.2

to 1.6 billion by 2050• Increasing urbanisation

Income:• GDP is expected to grow at CAGR of

more than 7% in reference scenario• Per capita incomes to cross US $

10,000 by 2045

Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad

Macro Drivers of India Scenarios

2010

Conventional

2030

Sustainable

2030

Conventional

2050

Sustainable

2050

Population (million) 1206 1476 1434 1620 1509

Households (million) 247 365 356 502 473

Urbanization (%) 30 39 43 50 55

GDP (Billion $) 1397 6489 6002 25664 23007

GDP per capita (US $) 1158 4397 4186 15842 15247

6

Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad

Sectors and Strategies

Sectors Strategy

Housing Affordable housing + Building Codes, Materials

Transport Avoid, Shift, Improve, Switch

Lighting CFL /LEDs

Cooking Access to clean fuels

Cooling /Heating

Labelling, Building Codes

Waste National Mission on Waste

….

Sectors Strategy

Steel Plant Benchmarking, PAT, Market Reforms, Recycle

Cement Plant Benchmarking, PAT, Market Reforms, Materials (FlyAsh)

Aluminium Plant Benchmarking, PAT, Market Reforms, Recycle

…

Habitats Industry

Electricity

Sectors Strategy

Renewable National Mission on Solar, WindTariff

Coal Clean Coal Technologies,

T&D Coal by Wire

Consumption Targeted Subsidies

7

Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad

Industry Sector Demand

8

0

200

400

600

800

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Mill

ion

To

n

Steel Demand

Conventional Sustainable

0

400

800

1200

1600

2000

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Cement Demand

Conventional Sustainable

0

5

10

15

20

25

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Aluminium Demand

Conventional Sustainable

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Fertilizer Demand

Conventional Sustainable

Mill

ion

To

nM

illio

n T

on

Mill

ion

To

n

Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad

Demand: Passenger Transport (Bpkms)

9

Primary Energy

10

CO2 Emissions

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

Conventional Sustainable Conventional Sustainable

2010 2030 2050

Mill

ion

To

ns

Gas

Oil

Coal

CO2 Emissions by Sector

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

ConventionalSustainableConventionalSustainable

2010 2030 2050

Mt

CO

2 Agriculture

Transport

Industry

Commercial

Residential

Primary Energy & CO2 Emissions

2010 2030

Con.

2030

Sus.

2050

Con.

2050

Sus.

Total CO2

(Million Tons)

1497 2810 2138 3157 2108

Primary Energy Supply (EJ) 25.9 54 45 101.1 69.4

Energy Intensity (TJ/M$) 13 6.5 5.9 3.1 2.5

CO2 intensity

(tCO2/TJ)

82.7 66.7 60.1 39.9 36.1

CO2 per capita

(tCO2/capita)

1.24 1.9 1.49 1.95 1.4

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Co-Benefits: Air Pollution & Energy Security

-

100

200

300

400

500

600

Conventional Sustainable Conventional Sustainable

2010 2030 2050

Bill

ion

USD

Value of Energy Imports

Gas Oil Coal

Co-benefits: Social Value of Carbon

2020 2030 2040 2050

CO2 saved (Million tCO2) 370.6 671.8 918.9 1049.4

Revenue from CO2 saved(Bn US $ 2010)

16.6 45.1 82.3 152.9

Revenue as % of GDP0.6% 0.8% 0.8% 0.7%

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Revenues from carbon saved in Sustainable Scenario

Indian Institute of Management Ahmedabad

Climate Policies and India1) Choice of Development Path: Overcoming Contradictions

• Sustainable Scenario is ‘Aspiration’• Conventional trends appear ‘Real’ together with inherited adverse ‘lock-ins• Behavior/Institutional lock-ins sustain technology/infrastructure lock-ins

2) Policy Evolution: Science + Process => Policies• Integrated Assessment??• Consensual quick fixes: ‘A camel is a horse designed by a committee’

3) Short-Medium Term Proposals – INDCs??• Expect heterogeneous targets that accommodate diverse interests and

circumvent constraints• National processes adapted to overarching Paris (2015) agreement framework• Weak alignment with 2OC Pathway

4) Long-term Policies• Unlock old lock-ins/ Prevent new lock-ins (e.g. technology infrastructure choices)• Develop national market for low carbon industry and services • Adaptation (4OC??) and Capacity Building