Båndbreddens fremtid

Jon Lund // www.jon-lund.com // [email protected] // @jonlundBåndbreddens fremtid, waoo, 15. august 2013

Båndbreddensfremtid

http://www.jon-lund.com


mailto:[email protected]








2. TV kan mere end du tror

3. Internet of things står for døren

1. Netflix kan mere end du tror






Men først: en skakhistorie






Rajah Balhait og Brahman Sissa /King Vishtaspa of Persia and Zarathustra






Felt 12: 2048

riskorn

Midt mellem Magic

Johnson og Kareem

Abdul-Jabbar




Felt 17: 65536

riskorn


Felt 40: 549.755.813.888

riskorn


Felt 48: 140.737.488.355.328

riskorn


Felt 64:

9.223.372.036.854.780.000

riskorn

1 lysår(Mælkevejen 12.000 lysår)


Brødføde heleverdens befolkningi 100 år


0

600

1.200

1.800

2.400

3.000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12






0

600

1.200

1.800

2.400

3.000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12






1. NETFLIX KAN MERE END DU TROR


















400.000 netflix-kunder



http://futuretv.dk/wp-content/uploads/2013/05/08-Andreas-Ish%C3%B8y-Tiden-efter-streaming-Yougov-analyse.pdf




2014

: Ove

r 50

% a

fin

tern

etbe

folk

ning

en






Distributører

TV kanaler

Produktionsselskaber

Seere

Filmskabere






Internetudbydere

Seere

Filmskabere

Distributører

TV kanalerProduktionsselskaber






Internetudbydere

Seere

Filmskabere

Distributører

Apparater

TV kanalerProduktionsselskaber
















Kilde: Facebook






2. TV KAN MERE END DU TROR






7 Mbit/s






(84”, $ 20,000, 40 Mbit/s)






UHDTV - 33 megapixels

8K fylder 144 Gbit/s ukomprimeret (!) - 150 Mbit/s











http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=re1EatGRV0w








http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iR7wx132REQ&list=PL363989F7BCF53A36








3. INTERNET OF THINGS STÅR FOR DØREN




































http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1uyQZNg2vE








http://www.vice.com/en_uk/read/tim-pool-live-streaming-from-istanbul



















The Zettabyte Era

...starter i 2015

Cisco:

(mega, giga, tera, peta, exa, zetta)

trafik 3-dobles de næste 5 år











0"

2"

4"

6"

8"

10"

12"

14"

16"

18"

1995,"H1"

1996,"H2"

1998,"H1"

1999,"H2"

2001,"H1"

2002,"H2"

2004,"H1"

2005,"H2"

2007,"H1"

2008,"H2"

2010,"H1"

2011,"H2"

Mbit/s






0"

2"

4"

6"

8"

10"

12"

14"

16"

18"

1995,"H1" 1996,"H2" 1998,"H1" 1999,"H2" 2001,"H1" 2002,"H2" 2004,"H1" 2005,"H2"

0"

2"

4"

6"

8"

10"

12"

14"

16"

18"

1995,"H1"

1996,"H2"

1998,"H1"

1999,"H2"

2001,"H1"

2002,"H2"

2004,"H1"

2005,"H2"

2007,"H1"

2008,"H2"

2010,"H1"

2011,"H2"

Mbit/s






0"

2"

4"

6"

8"

10"

12"

14"

16"

18"

1995,"H1" 1996,"H2" 1998,"H1" 1999,"H2" 2001,"H1" 2002,"H2" 2004,"H1" 2005,"H2"

0"

2"

4"

6"

8"

10"

12"

14"

16"

18"

1995,"H1"

1996,"H2"

1998,"H1"

1999,"H2"

2001,"H1"

2002,"H2"

2004,"H1"

2005,"H2"

2007,"H1"

2008,"H2"

2010,"H1"

2011,"H2"

y"="0,0177e0,5796x"R²"="0,995"

0"

2"

4"

6"

8"

10"

12"

14"

16"

18"

20"

1995,"H1"

1996,"H2"

1998,"H1"

1999,"H2"

2001,"H1"

2002,"H2"

2004,"H1"

2005,"H2"

2007,"H1"

2008,"H2"

2010,"H1"

2011,"H2"

Mbit/s






y"="0,0177e0,5796x"R²"="0,995"

0"

20"

40"

60"

80"

100"

120"

140"

160"

180"

200"

1995,"H1"

1996,"H2"

1998,"H1"

1999,"H2"

2001,"H1"

2002,"H2"

2004,"H1"

2005,"H2"

2007,"H1"

2008,"H2"

2010,"H1"

2011,"H2"

2012,"H1"

2013,"H2"

2015,"H1"

2016,"H2"

Mbit/s






Gordon Moore






0

15

30

45

60

75

90

105

120

135

150

1953 1957 1962 1966 1971 1975 1980 1984 1989 1994 1999 2004 2009

Processorkraft, 1971: 2300 transistorer

Intel Tukwilla, 2.000.000.000

Moore’s lov






Ray Kutzweil











Performance curve database http://pcdb.santafe.edu/graph.php?curve=214





http://pcdb.santafe.edu/graph.php?curve=214

http://pcdb.santafe.edu/graph.php?curve=214


14 m

illia

rder

år

4 milliarder år






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Tak for i dag

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Technology

Båndbreddens fremtid