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Good Decisions

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Better Decisions - Better Lives

Good decision-making is an essential life skill, but most people acquire it only through a process of trial and error – if at all.

What is a good decision?

A good decision is one that makes sense from a head perspective and feels right from a heart perspective

Using your head

a decision makes sense.

• Searching for facts• making judgments

about the likelihood of future events

• understanding how one thing relates to another

• reasoning your way through the whole situation to reach a sound conclusion.

Using your heart

a decision feels right.

• taking into account social (relationship) considerations

• how much you care about the consequences of your decisions

Our decisions shape our lives – for better or for worse.

“Decision” and “scissors” have the same root – by making a decision I choose to cut off one alternative future in order to pursue another. What future will I choose for myself and the people I care about?

What Kind of Decision is this?

To size up the decision, ask yourself:

What kind of decision is this?

How big is the real commitment? What is at stake?

Will I be locked in or can it be easily reversed?

How much time do I have to make this decision?

Should I escalate the decision to a higher level?

(Consider a wider frame)

Does delay have serious consequences?

Defining a Good Decision

Whether my decision is good or bad depends on how I make it – not on the outcome

Helpful Frame

Purpose - What kind of picture do I want?

Scope - What do I want to include in the picture

Perspective - From where do I want to take the picture?

Clear Values

WHAT IS IT?

WHY DO IT?

Values are what I care about (due to wants, needs, dislikes, etc.) by which I prefer one consequence of a decision over another.

What do I really care about.

Clear Values

Head Questions: Can I explain why the potential futures associated with each

alternative are attractive or not? Can I explain how much of something I would give up in order

to get more of something else? (e.g., the most I would be willing to pay for a warranty when I buy a used car)

Heart Questions: Have I considered the potential impacts of my decisions on all

those whom I care about? Are the values I am expressing consistent with my

conscience?

Creative Alternatives

An alternative is one of the possible courses of action available to me. When considering a weekend, alternatives could include what to do, where to go, howto get there, and who to go with.

There’s usually a better alternative.

Creative Alternatives

Head Questions: Are my alternatives logically complete (e.g., including doing

nothing for now and revisiting the decision at a later time)?

Heart Questions: Do my alternatives consider others whom I care about? Do my alternatives feel like a complete set? What other alternatives might I consider, if I were not afraid? What might someone I trust and admire do?

Useful Information

By information, we mean anything I know, would like to know, or should know that might influence my decision— but that is not under my control. This includes factual information from the past and judgments about current or future situations that help me anticipate the consequences of acting on the alternatives.

What are the possible outcomes and their probabilities.

Useful Information

General Questions: What do I wish I knew to make a better decision? How might I get it? Do I believe the information? Is the source biased?

Head Questions: What are the potential outcomes of each course of

action? How likely is each of the outcomes? Is it worth getting more information before deciding?

Heart Questions: Who knows about this topic? Who could help me find

out? What stops me from getting the information that I

wish I had?

Useful Information

TOOLS TO USE Digging for information from good sources: Libraries,

newspapers, magazines, internet Finding out from people who know Networking to find good sources “Encoding” of judgment as probabilities Bayesian inference

Sound Reasoning

Reasoning is how I combine my alternatives, information, and values to arrive at a decision. It is my answer to: “I am choosing this alternative because... .”

Does it make sense to me? Can I explain the rationale?

Sound Reasoning

General Questions: What is my approach to comparing and selecting my best

alternatives? Is my analysis and selection among the alternatives

consistent with my information and values? How could I explain this choice to others? Should I drop any alternatives for ethical reasons?

Head Questions: Why is this the best alternative? What would it take to switch to another alternative? Have I used probabilities to describe uncertainty?

Heart Questions: Do people I trust, respect and/or care about agree with my logic/rationale? Does the answer feel right? If not, why not?

Sound Reasoning

TOOLS TO USE List of pros and cons for each alternative Decision and probability trees Influence diagrams Computer/spreadsheet models, simulation Rules of decision theory

Commitment to Follow Through

Commitment to follow through means I am set to follow through and have the ability to do so in a purposeful manner. If we are only halfhearted about our commitment, our follow-through is usually less intense and may not achieve the best results.

Living my decisions makes them real.

Commitment to Follow Through

General Questions: Am I ready to act? Will I do this? Do I have the necessary means to follow through?

Head Questions: What could stop me from following through? Am I prepared for the consequences and for doing what it

takes to carrying through the decision?

Heart Questions: What fears do I have that prevent me from making my

decision real? Have I accepted the potential consequences that go along

with acting/choosing? Am I ready for the internal shift from considering the

decision to the state of making it happen? Will others support or hinder me in executing the decision?

And, am I prepared to deal with this?

Commitment to Follow Through

TOOLS TO USE Good choice and good decision process to create

right conditions for follow through Alignment with others whose help I need to achieve

commitment Action or implementation plan Progress measurement (e.g., milestones)

Process for Making Good Decisions

Decision Traps

Lack of Decision Fitness: recognize when I lack the capacity to make a good decision (e.g., the day I break up, when I’m angry or drunk, when I’m with the gang)

Fatalism: it doesn’t matter what I think or do, the future will just turn out the way that it will

Reacting to situations without thinking

Avoiding conscious choice due to fear of failure,

criticism, ambiguity, lack of resources, loss of face

Reacting unconsciously out of guilt, hate, shame,

revenge, or love

Unwittingly letting others decide for us

Know Yourself

We drag decisions into our comfort zone instead of considering the real needs of the decision situation.

Know your preferences, strengths and weaknesses.

MBTI - personalities along four dimensions of preferences.

DICTATORIAL & PERMISSIVE ROLES

You must do what I say.

You may do what you want.

PARTICIPATIVE ROLES

Authoritative: The parent (or other adult) engages in a joint decision-making process with the youth, but reserves final veto power.Partner: The parent engages in a joint decision-making process with the youth, with the intention of reaching a consensus.Coach: The parent helps the youth to make a good choice. In the end, it is the youth’s decision to make.

Avoid Traps and Biases

What we actually pay attention to is very much determined by what we expect to see. Psychologists call this selective perception. If something doesn’t fit, we often distort reality to fit our viewpoint rather than challenge our assumptions.

Filtering

Another important motivational bias is suppression, or the refusal to see reality for what it is. The extreme example is of an ostrich burying its head in the sand on seeing danger and hoping the threat will thereby disappear.

Avoid Traps and Biases

egocentrism, the tendency to overemphasize our own role in the events we seek to explain.

Distortion

Even if we let the new information penetrate our minds objectively, we are still susceptible to various biases of interpretation

Decision Tree

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