Ignore Gurus

Machines  will  be  capable,  within  20  years,  of  doing  any  work  a  man  can  do  

—Herbert  Simon,  1956—  

“ ”

Within  a  generaBon  …  the  problem  of  creaBng  ‘arBficial  intelligence’  will  

substanBally  be  solved    —Marvin  Minsky,  1967—  

“ ”

 From  Structured  best  business  pracBces  to  General  Business  

Models  

•  Sample  of  educaBonal  games  •  Focus  on  revenue  models  

–  Pay-­‐per-­‐download:  ‘Direct  revenues’,  $0.99  to  $3.99  –  Freemium  model:  ‘Indirect  revenues’  +  for-­‐pay  features)  

Centralized control

Decentralized control

Indirect revenues (advertising)

Direct revenues

Game

Game

Game Game

Game

Game

Game

Game Game

Game Outlier

Companies  that  ignored  the  control-­‐revenues  link  were  selected  away  

Or?  Managers  imitated  successful  examples  from  their  industry.  

What  is  the  business  model  case,    taking  into  account  two  disBnct  groups?  

Game  developers  want  to  earn  money  

 

Parents  &  schools  want  to  teach  children  

BUSINESS  MODEL  SIMULATIONS  •  Parents  willingness  to  spend  is  relaBvely  high  

=>  €84/Y/child  in  retail  market  

•  Schools’  willingness  to  spend  is  relaBvely  low            =>  €2/year/child  

•  360.000  Flemish  lower  grade  schoolchildren    

OPTIMISTIC:  180k  STUDENTS  

03/06/14 10

€1.512.000

€360.000

€30.240

€1.841.760

€1.080.000 €432.000

€360.000

€21.600 €8.640

€1.841.760

REALISTIC:  90k  STUDENTS  €756.000

€180.000

€15.120

€920.880

€540.000 €216.000

€180.000

€10.800 €4.320

€920.880

PESSIMISTIC  PARENTS  +  OPTIMISTIC  SCHOOLS  €378.000

€360.000

€7.560

€730.440

€270.000 €108.000

€360.000

€5.400 €2.160

€730.440

OPTIMISTIC  PARENTS+  PESSIMISTIC  SCHOOLS  €1.512.000

€90.000

€30.240

€1.571.760

€1.080.000 €432.000

€90.000

€21.600 €8.640

€1.571.760

 Local  market  for  educaBonal  games  is  under  extreme  pressure  to  offer  high  

quality  educaBonal  content  

40%  of  the  Fortune  500  companies  in  2000  no  longer  existed  in  2010  

—And  all  the  variaBons  on  this  theme—  

“ ” What’s  the  average  company’s  10  year  

survival  raBo?  

29%  

Ignore Gurus, Trust yr fieldwork