Disruptive Analysis - Telecoms Futurism

TelcoFuturism….

… and why it matters to all service providers

Dean Bubley, Disruptive Analysis

Metaswitch Forum, May 2016

[email protected] @disruptivedean

mailto:[email protected]

About Disruptive Analysis

Tech/telecom analyst & strategic consulting

Futurism, Forecasting & anti-forecasting

Cross-silo, contrarian, independent Provocative. Sometimes obscure. Occasionally wrong.

Focus: Voice/video, WebRTC, 4G/5G, Telco biz models & regs Everything from videoconferencing to silicon to regulation to IoT to NFV

Not a deep technical specialist or developer

Advisor to telcos, vendors, regulators & investors

Speaker at 30+ events per year in Europe, US & Asia

Twitter @disruptivedean Blog: disruptivewireless.blogspot.com

Copyright Disruptive Analysis Ltd 2016May 2016

Communications is more than just “calls” & conferences


The Future is getting closer, faster


Predicted 1916

Discovered 2016

DARPA Challenge 2004

Mainstream 2017/18

Released 2009

Mainstream 2014

Invented 2012

Mainstream 2015

Image: Nicolas Halftermeyer

Released 2010

Mainstream 2014

Not just mainstream – but spinoffs & variations proliferating

CRISPR

Futurism isn’t just for the crazy guys in the labs any more


Past: 10-20yrs Scenario Planning

Now: 3-5yrs Foresight

Soon: 1-2yrs Aware

“Sci-Fi” Lab

Concept

Business

Reality

The Future has broad drivers, beyond networks


Chapter by Dean Bubley:

“The Future of the Phone Call”

Other Chapters cover:

AI & machine-learning

Analytics & Big Data

Contextual computing

Crowds & the Sharing Economy

Wearables & quantified-self

3D-printing

IoT, Robots & drones

Autonomous vehicles

Longevity & human enhancement

Green Tech

Financial systems & money

Political & social change

Opportunity & value arises at tech intersections


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Fin

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ain

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Voice/Video Comms, Collaboration, Context & WebRTC

Future Networks: 5G, WiFi, LPWAN, SDN/NFV etc

Smartphones + Crowdsourcing + Developer Platforms


Innovation mainly needs imagination & motivation. Not money.

Most telcos & telco execs don’t understand the future


… and most futurists don’t understand telecoms


“Telcos &

banks will all

merge”

“Everything

will be

mobile”

“Wireless

power will be

beamed from

cell towers”

Focus on purpose & context


Avoid strategic over-reach: platforms are expensive


Source: RGBstock.com

Think about orthogonal trends in society & business


Intersections are bi-directional

Drones using telecoms

5G connectivity for control

Streaming video

Identity / security

Industrial verticals

Entertainment & consumer

Precision-agriculture svcs

Public safety applications

Telecoms using drones

Site inspection/maintenance

Coverage testing/mapping

Delivery B2B / B2C

Temporary network capacity


Telecoms meets AI & machine-learning


Pricing modelsEnergy

ManagementFraud Detection

Churn Reduction

Quasi-QoS

Path Optimisation Multiple variables Capacity Planning

Analytics/Learning – Voice search & emotional analysis


Empathy-as-a-service


… also see IBM Watson APIs

Blockchain

Mesh networks

Microbilling

IoT identity

Internal security for SDN

Alternative routing paths

Roaming agreements

Early movers:

Verizon/Filament

Orange Chainforce


Sources of value in communications


Before a call

/ session

Signal / check

availability

Signal

purpose

Timing

Setup &

configuration

Rendezvous

Device

Identity

During a call

/ session

Quality &

acoustics

Handoff

Translation

Realtime

analysis

Relevant data

Multi-party

UI / control

Interop

After a call /

session

Record & tag

Next actions

Ratings

Post-call

analytics

Ephemerality

OUTCOMES

Reason for a

call / session

Triggers

Scheduling

Forms

Choice /

negotiation of

channel

Context

Social

Workflow

Ongoing: Conversations, narratives, reputation, identity

…. this is just a starting point

Enterprise voice & UC trends evolving fast

Context

Conversations

Convenience: Today’s UC

Calls: Historic & Functional

• App-embedded comms

• Purpose-driven comms

• Analytics & IoT integration

• Multi-channel

• Workstream/ social

• Persistent collaboration

• Cloud & hybrid delivery

• UCaaS

• Mobile, BYOD

• Basic telephony & IM

• Simple conferencing

• Desktop video


Engaging with the future….


Cross-Organisation

InvolvementPartners & Vendors

Competitions, Incubators &

Hackathons

www.disruptive-analysis.com

disruptivewireless.blogspot.com

@disruptivedean

[email protected]

Skype:disruptiveanalysis

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http://www.disruptive-analysis.com/

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Disruptive Analysis - Telecoms Futurism