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Undergraduate seminar examining the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake and the accompanying controversy surrounding the prosecution and conviction of 6 scientists and a civil servant for their failure to adequately communicate seismic risk to the citizens of the town in the lead-up to the tremor. Delivered alongside companion pieces covering the legal and science communication elements of the case.
Citation preview
Geoffrey Ba*Research Associate ProfessorExxonMobil Fellow
The Science and Predictability of EarthquakesL’Aquila and Scien=fic Responsibility
3:32am
3:32am
6 April, 2009
3:32am
6 April, 2009
9.46 km beneath L’Aquila
3:32am
6 April, 2009
9.46 km beneath L’Aquila
M5.8
Actual recording of the 2004 Parkfield Earthquake downloaded from the USGS Earthquake Hazards Program web site
Not parNcularly large
* Online Earthquake Catalogue of the USGS
242 quakes as large or larger around the world during 2009*
297 deaths
So, what is an earthquake?
earthquake*rTH.kwāke
Noun1. A sudden and violent shaking of the ground, some7mes causing great
destruc7on, as a result of movements of the Earth’s crust, or...
2. A great convulsion or upheaval: “a poli7cal earthquake”
* DefiniNon according to Google, April 2013
The L’Aquila quake seems to qualify under both definiNons
Image produced by Shuxia Zhang and Shuo Wang at the University of Minnesota SupercompuNng InsNtute
1mm1mm
Rock strength is finiteElas=c loading eventually causes failure...
Millions of Earthquakes occur every yearMost too small to detect by rou=ne monitoring
Around 20,000* measured and recorded every year by the USGS
* Magnitude 4 and above
Major earthquakes are oaen followed by reports that they were predicted, or at least
anNcipated, but no claim of a successful predicNon of a
major earthquake has survived close inquiry
We understand how and why they occur, so why can’t we
predict them?
Where?
Howsevere?When?
Where?
Howsevere?When?
Useful predic7on exists only in this intersec7on space
Howsevere?When?
Useful predic7on exists only in this intersec7on spaceA
When?
Useful predic7on exists only in this intersec7on spaceA
A
Useful predic7on exists only in this intersec7on spaceA
AD
Useful predic7on exists only in this intersec7on spaceA
ADProbabilis7c only
Real rocks are irreducibly complex
We can evaluate their average behaviour, but
exactly which rock will fail when is beyond us
Earthquake Hazard MapPeak ground accelera=on with a 10% probability of being exceeded in 50 years
0.001g percepNble by people0.02g people can lose their balance
0.1g light property damage
Earthquake Hazard MapPeak ground accelera=on with a 10% probability of being exceeded in 50 years
0.001g percepNble by people0.02g people can lose their balance
0.1g light property damage
Can you guess where
L’Aquila is?
1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
1315
1349
1452
1501
1646
1703* 17
06
* Town destroyed5000 dead
Major Historical Earthquakes at L’Aquila
2009
1300 1400 1500 1600 1700 1800 1900 2000
1315
1349
1452
1501
1646
1703* 17
06
* Town destroyed5000 dead
Major Historical Earthquakes at L’Aquila
2009
Looking for paSerns in this, the biggest surprise is probably that the 2009 quake took so long to happen
So who thinks the L’Aquila 7 were guilty of something now?
So who thinks the L’Aquila 7 were guilty of something now?
I do...but maybe not what you think
h*p://rockysubjects.wordpress.com/2012/10/25/fairy-‐tales-‐on-‐shaky-‐ground-‐scienNfic-‐understanding-‐
and-‐the-‐italian-‐court-‐system/
rockysubjects.wordpress.com
Ba+ L’Aquila Earthquake, May 2013
