العالية التقاناتإدارة

البازغة وتحدياتها High & Emerging Techs Mgt By Dr. Sabri MOURAD mourasab@yahoo.fr

http://fr.slideshare.net/mourasab/entreprise-organisation

Facts:

2021 : End of Silver

2025 : End of Gold

2030 : End of Lead

2039 : End of Cupper

2040 : End of Uranium

2048 : End of Nickel

2050 : End of Oil

Future of enterprises and organizations

Facts:

-The power of microprocessors doubles each 18 months.

• In 15 years the calculation power x 1000

• In 30 years the calculation power x 1 000 000

• In 50 years the calculation power x 1 000 000 000

In 30 years all most complicated equations and vital processes could be solved/simulated accurately in real time (weather, turbulence, …)

Future of enterprises and organizations

The number of connected devices to internet increases exponentially.

5 billions connected in 2015 (estimation Alcatel-Lucent)

50 billions devices connected to Internet in 2030

-Generated data doubles each 24 months (10 18 bytes in 2008)

• In 20 years x 1000 (10 21 bytes)

• In 40 years x 1000 000 (10 24 bytes)

• In 60 years x 1 000 000 000 (10 27 bytes)

The future growth and innovation will be dominated by the capacity of creating data bases, updating and extracting information from them

Future of enterprises and organizations

Facts:

-The number of researchers doubles each 10 years (10 million in 2009)

• In 20 years x 4 (40 million)

• In 40 years x 16 (160 million)

• In 60 years x 64 (640 million)

The future growth and innovation will be driven by high qualified human resources focused on research and development organized in networks (knowledge driven society)

Future of enterprises and organizations

Major forces of change in enterprises until 2025

- Ultra competition due to the globalization and increasing needs for new products.

- Increasing needs for customization

- Increasing number of new technologies (1 million patent per year or 2 new patents per minute)

- Increasing demand for friendly environment products

- Increasing demand for energy savings

- Increasing role of knowledge and intellectual properties

- Global optimization of production factors

Future of enterprises and organizations

Major forces of change in enterprises until 2025

Due to these forces, it is normal to investigate the following topics:

What are the future forms of enterprises in the coming 20 years?

What is the future form of manpower in the coming 20 years?

What is the future of innovation process in the coming 20 years?

Future of enterprises and organizations

What do customers need?

High quality Low prices High service

What enterprises have to do?

Increase Quality (be the best)

Increase reactivity (be the first)

Reduce costs (be the cheapest but attentions for the concerned product)

Future Forms of enterprises

- The structure of companies will be very focused on innovation and continuous creation of new products

-High innovation rate = low life time of products = flexible management and organization = reinforcement of product life cycle management = strong link with customer and sharing of risk with suppliers

- Lower the costs = increasing use of ICT = increasing use of just in time production = reducing development time = improving the efficiency of R&D = increasing outsourcing = increase specialization

Future Forms of enterprises

-New major forms of enterprises and companies

* Companies of transformation of raw materials to create semi final products or commodities (like wood panels, basic chemicals, engines …)

* Companies of customizations which will assembly the semi-final products and commodities to create customized products (automotive companies, Dell, Apple, etc). These companies has a direct relationship with customers

Future Forms of enterprises

-New major forms of enterprises and companies

* Even companies which seems local (bread makers), they will use a global structure through their suppliers (automatic production lines, centralized production of flour, …)

* Successful companies will be able to create alliances and clusters to improve development time and to increase access to customers

* The intellectual assets of organization will be more valuable and mainly its capacity to readapt its structure to continuous changing environment

* Social medias will play a major role in the new organizations (in the future customers will be able to know what other customers know)

Future Forms of enterprises

• Continuous changing economy = continuous new products and technology = continuous need to learn new technologies = continuous training and qualification of labor forces

• Successful companies will be characterized by dedicated employees able to understand their place in the strategy and able to influence the strategy and accelerate the creation of new products

• Labor forces will use more and more ICT and Data bases and higher interaction with machines and robots

Future of labor forces

Sector

Revenue 2010 (in millions)

Decline 2000-2010

Forecast Decline 2010-2016

Establish- ments 2010

Decline 2000-2010

Forecast Decline 2010-2016

Wired Telecommunications $154,096 -54.9% -37.1% 23,474 -10.5% -15.9%

Mills/Engineering $54,645 -50.2% -10.0% 9,553 -23.6% -12.8%

Newspaper Publishing $40,726 -35.9% -18.8% 6,128 -28.6% -17.6%

Textile manufacuring $12,800 -77.1% -8.5% 2,265 -60.5% -11.3%

DVD, Game & Video Rental $7,839 -35.7% -19.3% 17,369 -34.8% -11.2%

Manufactured Home Dealers

$4,538 -73.7% -62.0% 3,968 -56.7% -58.7%

Video Postproduction Services

$4,276 -24.9% -10.7% 1,789 -43.2% -37.8%

Record Stores $1,804 -76.3% -39.7% 2,916 -77.4% -11.6% Photofinishing $1,603 -69.1% -39.1% 7,083 -59.3% -33.3%

Formal Wear & Costume Rental

$736 -35.0% -14.6% 2,310 -28.5% -17.0%

Future of labor forces

10 dying industries in USA http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2011/03/28/top-10-dying-industries/

• Continuous changing economy = continuous new products and technology = continuous need to learn new technologies = continuous training and qualification of labor forces

• Successful companies will be characterized by dedicated employees able to understand their place in the strategy and able to influence the strategy and accelerate the creation of new products

• Labor forces will use more and more ICT and Data bases and higher interaction with machines and robots

Future of innovation process

Steps needed to integrate HRTM

To pass from current technologies to integrate HRTM, companies need to work

on 5 organizational axes:

-Simultaneous engineering

- Integration of human and technical resources to improve the outputs of human

resources

- Integrate new tools of knowledge management and real time Data treatment

- Continuous restructuring of companies

- Accelerate innovation process and focus on miniaturization of products

Steps needed to integrate HRTM

Simultaneous engineering

- Development process becomes parallel instead of step by step

- This decreases the development time and the time to market

- This approach is encouraged by the need of global approach to product life

cycle ( how to make it, commercialization, end of life, recycling services, etc)

- Simultaneous engineering is encouraged by the ICT tools and will increase in

the coming years

- Simultaneous engineering encourage collective work and open innovation

(working between suppliers and manufacturers)

- Simultaneous engineering needs new skills in coordination and project

management and team cooperation

900 first range contractors

Steps needed to integrate HRTM

Steps needed to integrate HRTM

Benefits of Simultaneous engineering

- Very strong acceleration of time to market process. We will see in the future

some ideas reaches the market within few months

- Very strong acceleration in the industrialization porcess

-Very strong acceleration in debugging of new products and achieving the

validation process

- Strong reduction in the design phase and mainly for advanced and complicated

techs.

Steps needed to integrate HRTM

Simultaneous engineering is not a choice but an obligation

- Markets will appear and disappear rapidly (no time to wait)

- Mass production will disappear and the needs for short series will increase

(customization)

- A lot of new technologies appear every day and this could change

fundamentally some sectors very rapidly and reduce strongly the costs in some

of them

- Globalization lead to global competition even with people who were not in the

business. These competitors could appear and disappear rapidly

Steps needed to integrate HRTM

Techniques needed for Simultaneous engineering

القدرة على نمذجة ومحاكاة النظم،

،Modular امتالك منهجيات تصاميم تكيفية مودولية

امتالك عمليات وتجهيزات تكيفية،

.وامتالك المواد والعمليات

Steps needed to integrate HRTM

Techniques needed for Simultaneous engineering

القدرة على نمذجة ومحاكاة النظم

سوف تمكن نماذج النظم القادرة على محاكاة كافة نشاطات الشركة أو المؤسسة، من المساهمة

.في صنع القرارات العملياتية بهدف وضع الحلول المجدية وحتى االمثلية

لذلك فإن امتالك القدرة على النمذجة والمحاكاة للشركة أو المؤسسة بمجملها سوف يسمح لها

بالتخطيط الواسع والمتزامن داخل الشركة وذلك من أجل اتخاذ قرارات عملياتية بالزمن

الحقيقي، ألن نماذج النظم المستقبلية سوف تجسد كافة نشاطات المؤسسة، بما فيها األجهزة

والعمليات والطرق التي يتفاعل األشخاص بها ضمن منظومات اإلنتاج.

Steps needed to integrate HRTM

Techniques needed for Simultaneous engineering

Modular امتالك منهجيات تصاميم تكيفية ومودولية

يفرض دعم الهندسة المتزامنة أن تكون التصاميم تكيفية مع مجال واسع من المنتجات

.والعمليات

يتوقع أن توضع منهجيات التصميم في مكاتب وحدات التصميم التي يفترض إن تكون قابلة

إلعادة االستخدام والتي تأخذ بعين االعتبار المواد الخام واالستفادة من الموارد وتكاليف اإلنتاج

.وزمن الصيانة وغيرها من العوامل ذات الصلة

Steps needed to integrate HRTM

Techniques needed for Simultaneous engineering

امتالك عمليات وتجهيزات تكيفية

ستتطلب الهندسة المتزامنة، جملة من العمليات التي يمكن أن تتكيف بسرعة مع تصنيع منتجات

جديدة لمواجهة مطالب السوق الديناميكية

إذن، سيتطلب األمر تطوير نماذج رقمية لتصاميم المنتج ونقله إلى منتج جاهز بالحد األدنى من

.التدخل البشري وبزمن قياسي

لذلك يفترض أن تتدفق تصاميم العمليات بسالسة إلى اآللة وأن يصار إلى تصنيع المنتج اعتماًدا

.على عمليات تشكيل مرنة ومبرمجة بحيث ال تتطلب تصنيع أدوات معقدة

Steps needed to integrate HRTM

Techniques needed for Simultaneous engineering

امتالك المواد والعمليات

سيتطلب التنفيذ السريع للمنتجات الجديدة إيجاد العمليات التي يمكن أن تؤدي إلى إنتاج مواد

.وأشكال جديدة بشكل كلي وبحيث ُتستخدم فيها على األرجح مواد جديدة وبنى وخواص جديدة

وهذا يعني أنه يمكن استخدام تصنيع غير مقيد بالشكل، بهدف تنفيذ إنتاج كبير من المكونات ذات

.الجودة العالية بخواص مواد متنوعة ودقة أبعاد معتبرة

فيما يتعلق بالمواد الخاصة بالمنتجات ذات النوعية الفريدة، فيمكن أن يصار إلى إنشائها بحيث

تكون قابلة لالستخدام لمرة واحدة فقط