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8/8/2019 01.Ppt Daniela Schreiber
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Daniela Schreiber Slide 1
Europe PV Mark et and Publ icPol icy
Daniela Schreiber
EuPD Research
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Daniela Schreiber Slide 2
PV Business Solu t ions: Profound
Researc h and Consul t ing
About EuPD Research
• EuPD Research is an international B2B marketresearch company that provides sustainableresearch for sustainable companies.
About 360Consult
• 360Consult is a strategy & marketing consultancythat provides sustainable consulting forsustainable companies based on primary andsecondary data.
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Daniela Schreiber Slide 3
PV Business Solu t ions: ProfoundResearc h and Consul t ing
Information
Services
Multi-Client
Services
Shared
Services
EuPD Products
Research
Services
EuPD ExclusiveServices
Consulting Services
360Consult Services
Data& News
RefinedInformation
Semi-IndividualResearch
Ad-hocResearchServices
Strategy & MarketingConsulting
Integrated Business Solution – Flexible Retainer Service
Integrated Business Solution – Project Service
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Daniela Schreiber Slide 4
Current s i t uat ion on t he g lobal PVmarke ts :
• Ramp-up of PV module supply• Collapse of the Spanish PV market
• Emerging markets (e.g. EasternEurope, Asia and the US) cannot beexpected to absorb Spanish capacities
• Panel price decrease• Global financial and economic crisis
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Daniela Schreiber Slide 6
In t ernat iona l ModulePr ic eIndex
2009
This chartdisplays theprice indices for
each nationalmarket. Startingpoint isQ4/2008.
65.85%
91.63%
80.70%
67.79%
100%
92.01%
69.90%
94.10%
86.59%
72.02%
86.07%85.38%
69.49%
83.22% 82.27%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
110%
4th quarter2008 1st quarter2009 2nd quarter2009 3rd quarter2009
Germany Spain Italy France USA
Source: EuPD Research 2009
startingpoint
78.62%D e c r e a s e o f ~ 3 0 %
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Daniela Schreiber Slide 7
Prom ot ion Condi t ions in Germ any
950 – 1,150 kWh/m2aSolar rad iat ion
PV pro mo tionGuara nte e p eriod: 20 yea rs
Feed-in tariffs for 2008 are
ba sed on 2004 EEG version
Fee d-in t ariffs for 2009-2012
are ba sed on th e 2008 EEGamendment
Numbe rs reflect
the feed -in ta riff
grante d to a cer-
ta in t ype of PV
plant in the year
of its installation.
Figure s are in
Euro cen ts per
kWh.
2008: 1,650 MW
2009e : 2,078 MW
2010e : 2,392 MW 2011e : 2,287 MW
Installed capacity
Source: EuPD Research 2010
Cum ulat ed 2008: 5,444 MW
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Syste m size
up to 30 kWp 46.75 43.01 39.57 36.01 32.77
30 - 100 kWp 44.48 40.91 37.64 34.25 31.17
100 - 1,000 kWp 43.99 39.58 35.62 32.42 29.50
>1,000 kWp 43.99 33.00 29.70 27.03 24.59
35.49 31.94 28.75 26.16 23.80
R o
o f t o p o r
B I P V p l a n t s
All op en spa ce p lants
newly
installed
950 – 1,150 kWh/m2aSolar rad iat ion
PV pro mo tionGuara nte e p eriod: 20 yea rs
Feed-in tariffs for 2008 are
ba sed on 2004 EEG version
Fee d-in t ariffs for 2009-2012
are ba sed on th e 2008 EEGamendment
Numbe rs reflect
the feed -in ta riff
grante d to a cer-
ta in t ype of PV
plant in the year
of its installation.
Figure s are in
Euro cen ts per
kWh.
2008: 1,650 MW
2009e : 2,078 MW
2010e : 2,392 MW 2011e : 2,287 MW
Installed capacity
Source: EuPD Research 2010
Cum ulat ed 2008: 5,444 MW
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012Syste m size
up to 30 kWp 46.75 43.01 39.57 36.01 32.77
30 - 100 kWp 44.48 40.91 37.64 34.25 31.17
100 - 1,000 kWp 43.99 39.58 35.62 32.42 29.50
>1,000 kWp 43.99 33.00 29.70 27.03 24.59
35.49 31.94 28.75 26.16 23.80
R o
o f t o p o r
B I P V p l a n t s
All op en spa ce p lants
newly
installed
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Daniela Schreiber Slide 8
Main aspec t s o f t he 2008 EEG
am endm ent c onc ern ing t hephot ovo l t a ic indus t ry
• Increase in the annual degression rate (stronger than
originally stipulated in the initial draft amendment).• Establishment of a dynamic ‘growth corridor’; an
instrument that serves to limit the amount of newly installedPV plants by increasing the degression rate if a certaintarget value is exceeded while rewarding less excessive
capacity growth.• There is currently no existing promotion scheme for BIPV.
In the past, BIPV was advocated by the façade bonus of €0,05/kWh for new PV installations integrated in the façadeof a building. This special promotion was abolished in 2009.
• Since the change of government, remuneration for solarelectricity is reviewed. This could mean that in 2011, at thelatest, feed-in tariff rates could decline even further thanoriginally anticipated.
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Daniela Schreiber Slide 9
Mark et Segm ent a t ion in Germ any(2009 vs . 2012e)
49%
9%
42%
31%
55%
14%
7% 9%
84%
3%
14%
83%
0%
20%
60%
80%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6
M a r k e t s h a r e
Segme nt 2012 Segment 2009 Applica t ion type 2012 Applca t ions t ype 2009
Customer segment Applica t ion type
Private
buildings
Non-private
buildings
Open-spa ce BAPV BIPV Ope n-space
Source: EuPD Research 2009
Circle diam et er = a nnu ally installed PV capa city
40%49%
9%
42%
31%
55%
14%
7% 9%
84%
3%
14%
83%
0%
20%
60%
80%
100%
1 2 3 4 5 6
M a r k e t s h a r e
Segme nt 2012 Segment 2009 Applica t ion type 2012 Applca t ions t ype 2009
Customer segment Applica t ion type
Private
buildings
Non-private
buildings
Open-spa ce BAPV BIPV Ope n-space
Source: EuPD Research 2009
Circle diam et er = a nnu ally installed PV capa city
40%
In the medium-term,promotion of largescale PV systems
will most likely becontinuouslyreduced.
As a consequence,residential PVsystems will gain
market share, whileopen space plants
and largecommercial
buildings will lose
ground.
In the absence ofspecial promotion
for BIPV, buildingappliedphotovoltaics willmaintain their
dominant status.
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Daniela Schreiber Slide 10
Prom ot ion Condi t ions in Spain
1,000 – 1,900 kWh/m²aSolar radiation
Fee d-in t a riff
2007: 556 MW*
2008: 2,750 MW*
2009e: 500 MW**
2010e: 493 MW**
2011e: 466 MW**
Insta lled capa citySource: EuPD Research 2009
Cum ulat ed 2008*: 3,360 MWNewlyinstalled
Roo fto p: 0.32 – 0.34 €/kWh
Ope n-space: origina lly 0.32 €/kWh, in Q3/2009 cut ba ck to 0.30 €/kWh
The fee d-in ta riff varies in dep en de ncy on how much of t he cap‘s limit ha s
bee n re ached in t he preceding qu arte rs (critical limit: 75 percent of th e cap)
The cap increases by the p ercent ag e th e fe ed-in tariff de crea ses an d vice versa.
500 MW cap in 2009 (233 MW op en -spa ce an d 267 MW roo ftop ); prospe ctivecap: 460 MW in 2010, 400 MW in 2011
Current ly, a new a men dme nt is being draw n up for the t ime after 2011.
2008 am en dm en t of feed -in ta riffs by the Rea l Decreto 1578/2008
* As per October 2009.
**The given figures do not
represent the market
volume in the given year
but the upper limit of the
current promotion act RD
1578/2008. According to
information from the
Spanish Energy
Commission CNE in
October 2009, only 18
MW have been newly
installed between January
and August 2009. Hence,
it can not be expected that
the upper limit will be
reached in 2009. The
Spanish Solar Association
ASIF 150 MW at the most
in 2009. On slide A.6., the
main reasons for thisdevelopment are depicted.
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Daniela Schreiber Slide 11
Mark et Segm ent a t ion in Spa in
(2009 vs . 2012e)
14%
42%44%
63%
28%
9%
52%
42%
6%
34%
63%
3%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
M a r k e t s h
a r e
Segment 2012 Segment 2009 Appliance 2012 Appliance 2009
Market Segment Application Type
Residential
buildings
Non-residential
buildings
Open
space
BAPV BIPV Ground-
mounted
Source: EuPD Research 2009
Diame trer o f bub ble = Installed PV capacity
Due to the dynamic
capping, the marketshare of BAPV
plants will increase.
Moreover, the extra
contingent for theopen-spacesegment (100 MWin 2009, 60 MW in
2010) will be
abolished in 2011.Regardingapplication types,
BAPV and BIPVplants will acquiremarket shares.
However, BIPVplants will remain a
niche market as thissegment is not
particularlypromoted.
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Daniela Schreiber Slide 15
Mark et Segm ent a t ion in Franc e
(2009 vs. 2012e)
34% 35%
31%
39%
31% 30%
52%
35%
13%
59%
30%
11%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
M a r k e t s
h a r e
Se gm en t 2012 Se gm en t 2009 Ap plica tio n t yp e 2012 Application type 2009
Source: EuPD Research 2009
Circle size=yearly insta lled cap acity
Customer se gm en ts Applica t ion type
Private
buildings
Non-private
buildings
Open-space BAPV BIPV Open-space
34% 35%
31%
39%
31% 30%
52%
35%
13%
59%
30%
11%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7
M a r k e t s
h a r e
Se gm en t 2012 Se gm en t 2009 Ap plica tio n t yp e 2012 Application type 2009
Source: EuPD Research 2009
Circle size=yearly insta lled cap acity
Customer se gm en ts Applica t ion type
Private
buildings
Non-private
buildings
Open-space BAPV BIPV Open-space
EuPD Researchexpect an increasein market share
within all marketsegments,especially within theopen space
segment due to theBorloo plan.
The particularlyhigh feed-in tariff for
BIPV plantssecures stable
market shares forplants on residentialand non-residentialbuildings.
French PV pro-motion is currently
being revised. Inthe future, thenumber of plants
receiving BIPVpromotion will mostlikely be reduceddrastically.
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Daniela Schreiber Slide 16
Current Mark et Trends
High Low
c o m p
e t i t i v e
i n t e n s i t
y
C u s t o m e r v a l u e
High
Low
Selling price
Development/Introduction
Rapid market growth
Extension of production
capacities
The search for new markets
Price / cost reduction
The search for differentiation
2nd EEG amendment 2009
and Spanish market collapse
1st EEG amendment
2004
Currentsituation
Penetration of markets
“Tausend-Dächer-
Programm “ 2000
Production orientation
Product orientation
Sales
orientation
Marketorientation
Customer
orientation
Development of
reliable products
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Daniela Schreiber Slide 17
Trend 1: Dow nst ream In t egrat ion
Trends in downstream distribution Distributors (i.e. installers, wholesalers)and project companies benefit from
module oversupply and increasing
margins.
Strong tendency of upstream players to
skip wholesale or implement own projects
At the same time, distributors try to
enlarge their installer network
Goals for upstream players:
• Gain higher margins
• Come closer to decision makers:
installers and end customers
• Secure sales channels
Benefiting from oversupply
Shipments
Market
Project business/
EPC
Wholesale/
system integration
Installers
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Daniela Schreiber Slide 18
Trend 2: Inc rease o f Thin Fi lm
Tec hno logies ’ Mark e t Share
other39.7% 29.3%
Source: EuPD Research 2009
othertechnologies
0.7%
nanotechnologies31.0%
others
39.7%
organic
PV29.3%
1.8%
thin film(a-Si, CIS, CdTe)
20.5%
mono and polycrystalline
76.6%
Source: EuPD Research 2009
n = 35
CPV
2010
2015
other
39.7% 29.3%
Source:EuPD Research 2009
othertechnologies
0.7%
nanotechnologies31.0%
others*39.7%
organicPV29.3%
1.8%
thin-film
(a-Si, CIS, CdTe)20.5%
mono-and polycrystalline
PV76.6%
Source:EuPD Research 2009
n = 35
CPV
2010
other
39.7% 29.3%
Source:EuPD Research 2009
othertechnologies
0.7%
nanotechnologies31.0%
others*39.7%
organicPV29.3%
1.8%
thin-film
(a-Si, CIS, CdTe)20.5%
mono-and polycrystalline
PV76.6%
Source:EuPD Research 2009
n = 35
CPV
2010
64.4%
other
technologies2.1%
CPV3.7%
28.6%
nanotechnologies35.8%
24.9%others39.3%
Source: EuPD Research 2009
thin film(a-Si, CIS, CdTe)
mono and polycrystalline
organic
PV
2015
Projected Market Share of SelectedTechnologies (2010 and 2015)
Figures represent the results of a Delphi survey
conducted in early 2009.
The share of mono- and polycrystalline in the
global PV market is expected to decrease.Thin film modules will gain market share.
CPV gains importance.
3rd generation cells (e.g. nano technology) are
not projected to play a significant role up to 2020.
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Daniela Schreiber Slide 19
Trend 2: PV Tec hnology Waves
time
Quelle:EuPDResea rch 2008
2007 2010 2015
0 %
100 %
Degre eof m arke tdiffusion
Time2009 2015 2020
0 %
100 %
R & D
CdTe
thin film
a-µ-Si, CIS/CIGS, CdTe
Degre e of ma rket diffusion
m a s s p r o d u c t i o n
Source: EuPD Research 2009
thin filma-µ -Si, CIS/CIGS, CdTe
crystallinec-Si, mc-Si
crystallinec-Si, mc-Si
crystallinec-Si, mc-Si
thin filma-µ-Si, CIS/CIGS, CdTe
nano
new
technologies
new
technologies
new
technologies
organic
nano organic
nano organic
time
Quelle:EuPDResea rch 2008
2007 2010 2015
0 %
100 %
Degre eof m arke tdiffusion
Time2009 2015 2020
0 %
100 %
R & D
CdTe
thin film
a-µ-Si, CIS/CIGS, CdTe
Degre e of ma rket diffusion
m a s s p r o d u c t i o n
Source: EuPD Research 2009
thin filma-µ -Si, CIS/CIGS, CdTe
crystallinec-Si, mc-Si
crystallinec-Si, mc-Si
crystallinec-Si, mc-Si
thin filma-µ-Si, CIS/CIGS, CdTe
nano
new
technologies
new
technologies
new
technologies
organic
nano organic
nano organic
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Daniela Schreiber Slide 20
Trend 3: Produc t Di f ferent ia t ion –
Ex am ple BIPV
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
France
Germany
Italy
USA
Spain
China
Japan
Switzerland
Emirates
Netherlands
Scandinavia
no answer
Source: EuPD Research 2010
multi response
n = 87
two mentions
- Greece
- UK
- Belgium
only mentioned once:
- Poland
- Canada
- Korea
- Mexico
- Brazil
- India
- Austria
- Turkey
- Luxemburg
- Marocco
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60%
France
Germany
Italy
USA
Spain
China
Japan
Switzerland
Emirates
Netherlands
Scandinavia
no answer
Source: EuPD Research 2010
multi response
n = 87
two mentions
- Greece
- UK
- Belgium
only mentioned once:
- Poland
- Canada
- Korea
- Mexico
- Brazil
- India
- Austria
- Turkey
- Luxemburg
- Marocco
Most Important Future BIPV Markets
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Daniela Schreiber Slide 21
Thank you very m uc h fo r your
a t ten t i on !
Disclaimer
NEITHER HOEHNER RESEARCH & CONSULTING GROUP GMBH NOR ANY OF ITS EMPLOYEES MAKES ANY WARRANTY, EXPRESS OR IMPLIED, ORASSUMES ANY LEGAL LIABILITY OR RESPONSIBILITY FOR THE ACCURACY, COMPLETENESS, OR USEFULNESS OF ANY INFORMATION, PRODUCT, ORPROCESS DISCLOSED. THIS PRODUCT WAS PREPARED USING PROFESSIONAL METHODS AND WITH GREAT CARE, TAKING ACCOUNT OF RELEVANT
LEGISLATION. THE DATA CONATINED IN THIS PRODUCT IS BASED ON SURVEYS OF SAMPLE POPULATIONS, CONDUCTED USING STANDARDSTATISTICAL METHODS. AS SUCH, THE STUDY IS SUBJECT TO A CERTAIN STATISTICAL ERROR RATE AND IS BASED EXCLUSIVELY ON THE FACTSWHICH WERE AVAILABLE AT THE TIME OF THE SURVEY.THE AUTHORS MAKE NO GUARANTEES THAT ANY DECISION BASED ON THE INFORMATIONPROVIDED WILL BENEFIT YOU IN SPECIFIC APPLICATIONS, OWING TO THE RISK THAT IS INVOLVED IN DECISION-MAKING OF ALMOST ANY KIND.
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ContactDaniela Schreiber | Head Strategic Operations
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