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ประชาคมเศรษฐกิจอาเซียน (ASEAN Economic Community: AEC) จะทำาให้อาเซียนเป็นที่สนใจ มีบทบาทและอำานาจต่อรองมาก ขึ้นในเวทีเศรษฐกิจโลกแบบเดียวกับสหภาพยุโรป (EU) ด้วยตลาดที่มีขนาดประชากรกว่า 580 ล้านคน มากกว่าทั้งสหภาพยุโรป มีมูลค่า การค้า ระหว่างประเทศถึง 1.5 ล้านล้านดอลลาร์สหรัฐฯ และถึงแม้จะมีขนาดเศรษฐกิจรวมกันเท่ากับเพียงเกาหลีใต้ แต่เป็นแหล่งดึงดูดเงิน ลงทุนโดยตรงจากต่างประเทศและมีจำานวนนักท่องเที่ยวต่างชาติรวมกันคิดเป็นอันดับสองของโลก
Citation preview
Insight
Template Book InsightSize 21 cm. (W) x 29.5 cm. (H)
() 9 10900 Email : eic@scb.co.th
EIC | Economic Intelligence CenterMonthly/February 2011
AEC
EIC Online : http://www.scbeic.comEconomic and business intelligence for eective decision making
(ASEAN Economic Community: AEC)
(EU) 580
1.5
2015
supra-national authority
intergovernmental method
AEC
SMEs
2 (1)
(2)
(core competency)
AEC (non-
tradables become tradables)
(ASEAN expatriate class)
(market trend)
CLMV
AEC (critical mass of consumer)
ASEAN+3
AEC
4EIC Economic Intelligence Center
AEC (Free Trade Area: FTA)
AEC
AEC
AEC 10 AEC
(ASEAN Community)
(ASEAN Political-Security Community)
(ASEAN Socio-Cultural Community)
(European Community) (European Union)
AEC
AEC 1
ASEAN Economic Community (AEC) 1
*
:SCBEICAssociationofSoutheastAsianNations(ASEAN);ChinaMinistryofCommerce;UnitedNationsConferenceonTradeandDevelopment(UNCTAD)InternationalMonetary Fund(IMF)
5EIC Economic Intelligence Center
AEC 100%
100%
4 AEC (1) (single market
and production base) (2) (competitive economic region) (3)
(equitable economic development) (4) (integration
into global economy)
100% AEC 2
* 2008-2009: SCBEIC,
73.6%*
SMEs
/
82% 50% 100% 100%
6
EIC Economic Intelligence Center
AEC 2015
AEC 2015
2015
2010
70% 2010
AEC 2015
70%
AEC
SMEs
2015
AEC
AEC 2015
2015 AEC
BOX: 2015
7
EIC Economic Intelligence Center
1.
-
- 0% - 0%
- -
- () - 100% - 70%
- - -
2. - -
- - intergovernment method
(European Central Bank: ECB)
-
(Supra-national authorities)
(European Parliament)
(European Court)
(European Legal System)
(European Competition Commission)
supra-national authority
intergovernmental method
1
1 , ...
8EIC Economic Intelligence Center
AEC
AFTA
common external tariff
0%
0%
(harmonization of economic policies)
2 David J. Dennis and Zainal Aznam Yusof (2003), Developing Indicators of ASEAN Integration A Preliminary Survey for a
Roadmap, final report to REPSF Project 02/001
AEC 3
(free trade area)
(common market)
(economic union)
(customs union)
:SCBEICDavidJ.DennisandZainalAznamYusof(2003) 2
BOX:
9
EIC Economic Intelligence Center
3
AEC
0% () 6
0%
2010 4 2015
( Outlook special issue: FTAs)
ASEAN FTA 10
6 3 ( ASEAN)
6 53
ASEAN
FTA AFTA
ASEAN 0%
2012
29% 2010 8% 2017
35
28.730
25
20
15
10
5
0
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
2012 4
/ 2010-2020
__ __ __ __ __ __ __ %
: SCBEIC;,
0.2 00
2.8
18.0
21.8
4.1
8.4 7.7
10
EIC Economic Intelligence Center
AEC
(investment and labor mobility) Insight
70%
AEC 70%5
: SCBEICASEAN
(priority integration sectors)
2006 2008 2010 2013 2015
49% 51%
49%
70%
51% 70%
30% 49% 51% 70%
BOX: AEC
11
EIC Economic Intelligence Center
AEC 2
AEC
ASEAN Framework Agreement on Service:
AFAS (General Agreement
on Trade in Services: GATS) GATS
positive list
negative list
GATS-Plus
GATS 4 (1)
(cross-border supply) (2) (consumption abroad) (3)
(commercial presence) (4) (temporary
movement of natural persons) AFAS
(package) package
11 2015 8
WTO
(professional services)
GATS
7 12
WTO
WTO
AEC
12
EIC Economic Intelligence Center
2 (1)
(2)
GATS 4 ( BOX:
AEC) 1-3
39%
70%
4% 49%
6
* 5 ** BusinessOnlinePCL
*: %
:SCBEICSETSMART
53
4435
30 30 28 26 2421 20 19
16 16 15 15 14 14 1412 10 7 6
1 0
**
*
*
**
IT
= 49%
13
EIC Economic Intelligence Center
AEC
100%
3
30% 35% 2025 2050 16%
14
EIC Economic Intelligence Center
AEC
(Mutual Recognition
Agreement: MRA) 7
4
MRA
7
* 20012010
: SCBEICWorldEconomicOutlook(WEO),IMF;Costofinvestinganddoingbusiness inASEAN(2001edition),ASEANPennWorldtables
Purchasing Power Parity: PPP 2010*
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
: (PPP)/
4 MRA
15
EIC Economic Intelligence Center
8
:SCBEICWorldTradeOrganization(WTO)AsianDevelopmentBank(ADB)
70% 2015
100%
100%
100%
49%
49%
40%
30%
AEC3
30%, 40% 49%
AEC 70%
(joint venture)
30%
16
EIC Economic Intelligence Center
9
AEC
EBITDA margin
:SCBEICBloomberg
(EBITDA margin)
21
7 5 5
AEC
5 Bloomberg
Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS) Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI) Standard & Poors (S&P)
17
EIC Economic Intelligence Center
EBITDA margin 10
:SCBEICBloomberg
40%
/
39% 19% 9% 7% 7%11% 5%
9% 8% n/a n/a
19% n/a n/a n/a n/a
15% 8% 21% 21%
21%
7%
7%
2% 4% 5%
4%
7% 17% 25% n/a
17% 17%
16% 15%19%
10% 12% 0%5%
21% 10% 26% 25% 22%9% 8%n/a
18
EIC Economic Intelligence Center
AEC 11
:SCBEICJutamasandFink(2007)6
6 Jutamas Arunanondchai and Fink, Carsten (2007), Trade in Health Services in the ASEAN Region, World Bank Policy Research Working Paper 4147,
March 2007
1 4 (priority
integration sectors)
AEC
AEC
AEC
4
100%
100%
100%
67%
AEC = 70%
49%
40%
30%
19
EIC Economic Intelligence Center
:SCBEICWorldHealthStatistics2010,WorldHealthOrganization(WHO)
12
15%
40%
: 10,000
15 44 312 61 611 61 1
18 1
6 8 34
20
EIC Economic Intelligence Center
13
:SCBEICUnitedNations(UN)
(aging population)
60 15% 2025 22% 2050
11% ( 2010) 30% 35% 2025
2050 16% 27% 2050 12%
( 60 )
: %
21
EIC Economic Intelligence Center
14
200
10%
(third-class services)
-
1993-1999 the National Investment Coordinating
Board 12 234
25%
83% 5,760
175
2000-2009 2007
:SCBEICWorldHealthStatistics2010,WHO
: 10,000 : ( )
32 1,148
28 58
26 753
22 136
18 307
6 42n/a
6 75 63
27
36
12 = 18
= 80
22
EIC Economic Intelligence Center
15% 40%
15
:SCBEICWorldHealthStatistics2010,WHO
5
23
EIC Economic Intelligence Center
16
(core competency)
AEC
ASEAN+3
(core competency)
AEC
5
3 AEC
+4
(non-tradables to tradables)
(ASEAN expatriate class)
+ =
+ =
+ =
Leverage core competency
:SCBEIC
24
EIC Economic Intelligence Center
BOX:
AEC
18,000
20%
the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) 10
27% 20%
46% 52%
:
77% 61%
34,000
25
EIC Economic Intelligence Center
7 70%
80%
AEC
3 (1)
(2) (non-tradables become tradables)
(3)
(ASEAN expatriate class)
7
(Malaysia My Second Home Program: MM2H)
26
EIC Economic Intelligence Center
AEC
3
1.
7% 8 5%
2.
3. 3
3 (1) () (2) (3) 4%, 23%
7%
(Halal) 3
(core competency)
AEC (critical mass of consumer)
12% 10 9%
30
Red Bull
100 8
8% 20
6%
8 BrandZ Top 100 Most Valuable Global Brands 2010 Millward Brown Optimor
27
EIC Economic Intelligence Center
9
270
2005 2009
18.2
10.4 9
5 1
AEC
(critical mass of consumer)
AEC
28
EIC Economic Intelligence Center
()
7
()
International Economics and Finance ()
vithan.charoenphon@scb.co.th(662) 544-2478
ekasit.kanchanapinyokul@scb.co.th(662) 544-3085
() ()
Fulbright MBA
Kellogg School of Management Northwestern University
8 McKinsey &
Company PricewaterhouseCoopers
Head of Researchmetinee.jongsaliswang@scb.co.th(662) 544-3259
30
EIC Economic Intelligence Center
Chief Economistsethaput.suthiwartnarueput@scb.co.th(662)544-4996
metinee.jongsaliswang@scb.co.th(662)544-3259
pornthep.jubandhu@scb.co.th(662)544-3066
mantana.lertchaitawee@scb.co.th(662)544-6760
pranida.syamananda@scb.co.th(662)544-2705
paradee.vivatanaprasert@scb.co.th(662)544-2475
vithan.chareonphon@scb.co.th(662)544-2478
witchuda.chummee@scb.co.th(662)544-1644
kampon.adireksombat@scb.co.th(662)544-1463
bunyanuch.niltakoch@scb.co.th(662)544-5644
akarapat.charoenpanich@scb.co.th(662)544-5602
sukanya.prangwattananon@scb.co.th(662)544-6103
ekasit.kanchanapinyokul@scb.co.th(662)544-3085
darakorn.pipatanakul@scb.co.th(662)544-4006
pinattha.aruntat@scb.co.th(662)544-2953
vipasara.arpaskundait@scb.co.th(662)544-6566
jiraporn.kritsadarak@scb.co.th(662)544-6759
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SCB Economic Intelligence Center ()
Insight
Template Book InsightSize 21 cm. (W) x 29.5 cm. (H)
() 9 10900 Email : eic@scb.co.th
EIC | Economic Intelligence CenterMonthly/February 2011
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